The AFC Playoff Picture

[NorthBuffaloKid]

Man...If we would have squished the fish the first time...

 

I HATE when that happens!!!

[Wayne Cubed]

Man...If we would have squished the fish the first time...

 

I HATE when that happens!!!

Now picture this, the Bills beat the 2 teams they should have beat in the Jets and Dolphins and are sitting at 9-5, with the Jets and Dolphins to finish the season.

[NorthBuffaloKid]

Now picture this, the Bills beat the 2 teams they should have beat in the Jets and Dolphins and are sitting at 9-5, with the Jets and Dolphins to finish the season.

^^^ Well said. Division games count as 2!

 

As a fan of 50 years, I could see the Bills getting to the last game with their destiny in their own hands... and coming up with a creative way to break our hearts.

 

I'll go with Carpenter doinking an extra point and us losing in overtime.

 

On the kick off.

Edited December 19, 2016 by NorthBuffaloKid

[Cereal]

Am I correct if I say that: All of the possible scenarios of the Bills getting into the playoffs hinge on beating Miami in the Strength of Victory tiebreaker?

 

If MIA and BUF both finish 9-7 overall, then they'd both be 3-3 in the division, 7-5 in common games, and 6-6 in the conference. The next tiebreaker is SOV.

 

By the way, I see that Miami currently has the edge in SOV, .313 to the Bills' .306.

 

Thanks...

[boco357]

Am I correct if I say that: All of the possible scenarios of the Bills getting into the playoffs hinge on beating Miami in the Strength of Victory tiebreaker?

 

If MIA and BUF both finish 9-7 overall, then they'd both be 3-3 in the division, 7-5 in common games, and 6-6 in the conference. The next tiebreaker is SOV.

 

By the way, I see that Miami currently has the edge in SOV, .313 to the Bills' .306.

 

Thanks...

I believe that is right and since the Bills beat NE and Miami would have lost twice to them, I think is the difference.

Edited December 19, 2016 by boco357

[The Crowing Rooster]

 

can we get him on the Bills roster!!!??

Probably not he is 77 years old .

 

 

Key difference being Garrett's "start to his career." Rex is pretty much a .500 or slightly above coach.

 

Also, will be interesting if we win out and make the playoffs. Then Rex stays.

[Cereal]

Am I correct if I say that: All of the possible scenarios of the Bills getting into the playoffs hinge on beating Miami in the Strength of Victory tiebreaker?

 

If MIA and BUF both finish 9-7 overall, then they'd both be 3-3 in the division, 7-5 in common games, and 6-6 in the conference. The next tiebreaker is SOV.

 

By the way, I see that Miami currently has the edge in SOV, .313 to the Bills' .306.

 

Thanks...

Ok so if the above is correct, and we look at SOV:

• MIA and BUF both will have had 5 common wins (vs. CLE, NYJ, LA, SF, ARI) + 1 win against each other, so all those will be a wash.
• MIA's three unique wins will have been against NYJ, PIT, and SD (combined 18-24 as of now; NYJ will have one more loss to BUF in Week 17).
• BUF's three unique wins will have been against NE*, CIN, and JAX (combined 19-22-1 as of now; NE* will have one more win against MIA in Week 17).

Now, if we ASSUME that NE* beats NYJ in Week 16, this would put MIA's SOV opponents at 18-26 and the Bills' SOV opponents at 21-22-1. In this scenario, MIA beats BUF on SOV only if: PIT and SD win out AND CIN and JAX (edit) lose out. (MIA's SOV opponents would then be 22-26, and BUF's SOV opponents would then be 21-26-1.)

 

I actually think that we require at least one win from CIN and/or JAX just to get to this point anyway, so that would take care of BUF's SOV tiebreaker anyway once we got there!

 

...

 

Summary:

 

All of the above is ONLY for a two-team tiebreaker between BUF and MIA for that last AFC wildcard spot. It looks like BUF would almost certainly edge out MIA on the SOV tiebreaker.

 

Of course, a lot of the other stuff that other posters mentioned above would have to happen, too, in order for MIA and BUF to be the ONLY AFC teams in the hunt to get to 9-7...

 

...

 

Disclaimer:

 

I don't actually think all of this would actually happen! But it is fun to look at the different scenarios. We're all here to have fun..... right...?

 

Also, I think ESPN's Playoff Machine is broken, because it tells me that MIA would hold the tiebreaker over BUF based on win percentage in common games.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Cereal

[Big C]

Am I correct if I say that: All of the possible scenarios of the Bills getting into the playoffs hinge on beating Miami in the Strength of Victory tiebreaker?

 

If MIA and BUF both finish 9-7 overall, then they'd both be 3-3 in the division, 7-5 in common games, and 6-6 in the conference. The next tiebreaker is SOV.

 

By the way, I see that Miami currently has the edge in SOV, .313 to the Bills' .306.

 

Thanks...

 

Yeah, and just playing around with the playoff machine, I'm not getting any scenario that gets us in.

[CodeMonkey]

I believe that is right and since the Bills beat NE and Miami would have lost twice to them, I think is the difference.

 

Wouldn't that be something if beating NE with a 3rd string rookie QB with an injured throwing hand ended up being what allowed the Bills to back into the wildcard.

I don't think the Bills have a hope in hell of getting in mind you, but wouldn't that be something

Edited December 19, 2016 by CodeMonkey

[Koufax]

So this weekend we need to win (obviously)

 

And have the Raiders, Steelers, AND Chiefs win home games they are favored in (but three probably things doesn't add up to a probable outocome).

 

And we need either (preferably both) Jags at home to upset the Titans, Bengals to upset the Texans in Houston.

 

Those two are needed after they almost weren't, as both the Texans and and Titans had come from behind last minute wins yesterday that they could have should have lost.

 

So why does this all matter?

Because packing up lockers early and heading home with tails between our legs is BAD for the 2017 Bills. Fighting until the end, and then having Rex fired makes our 2017 team better, ready to focus on the little things that cost them, and take that next step under a rookie head coach starting in September.

 

So if we can enter our final game of the season against the Jets while still in it, which is pretty possible, that matters even if the Bills don't get a week 17 miracle to get in.

 

And I think the team missing the playoffs by multiple games at 7-9 opens up a wide variety of excuses and increases Rex's chances of the finger pointing to someone else. But finishing 9-7 and knowing that the little differences a head coach really can and should be able to make cost us I think strengthens the very strong case to fire Rex.

[HeHateMe]

So this weekend we need to win (obviously)

 

And have the Raiders, Steelers, AND Chiefs win home games they are favored in (but three probably things doesn't add up to a probable outocome).

 

And we need either (preferably both) Jags at home to upset the Titans, Bengals to upset the Texans in Houston.

 

Those two are needed after they almost weren't, as both the Texans and and Titans had come from behind last minute wins yesterday that they could have should have lost.

 

So why does this all matter?

 

Because packing up lockers early and heading home with tails between our legs is BAD for the 2017 Bills. Fighting until the end, and then having Rex fired makes our 2017 team better, ready to focus on the little things that cost them, and take that next step under a rookie head coach starting in September.

 

So if we can enter our final game of the season against the Jets while still in it, which is pretty possible, that matters even if the Bills don't get a week 17 miracle to get in.

 

And I think the team missing the playoffs by multiple games at 7-9 opens up a wide variety of excuses and increases Rex's chances of the finger pointing to someone else. But finishing 9-7 and knowing that the little differences a head coach really can and should be able to make cost us I think strengthens the very strong case to fire Rex.

 

I don't see how finishing 7-9 helps Rex come back next year, while a 9-7 finish would hurt him??? At 9-7, he can play the injury "what if" game and play that to Pegula.

[Santana]

So this weekend we need to win (obviously)

 

And have the Raiders, Steelers, AND Chiefs win home games they are favored in (but three probably things doesn't add up to a probable outocome).

 

And we need either (preferably both) Jags at home to upset the Titans, Bengals to upset the Texans in Houston.

 

Those two are needed after they almost weren't, as both the Texans and and Titans had come from behind last minute wins yesterday that they could have should have lost.

 

So why does this all matter?

 

Because packing up lockers early and heading home with tails between our legs is BAD for the 2017 Bills. Fighting until the end, and then having Rex fired makes our 2017 team better, ready to focus on the little things that cost them, and take that next step under a rookie head coach starting in September.

 

So if we can enter our final game of the season against the Jets while still in it, which is pretty possible, that matters even if the Bills don't get a week 17 miracle to get in.

 

And I think the team missing the playoffs by multiple games at 7-9 opens up a wide variety of excuses and increases Rex's chances of the finger pointing to someone else. But finishing 9-7 and knowing that the little differences a head coach really can and should be able to make cost us I think strengthens the very strong case to fire Rex.

It would be very hard to fire Rex if we finish 9-7 this year. I think even most of the fans who dislike Rex would have to agree. I can't remember when going 9-7 in Buffalo warranted a coach to be fired.

[MDH]

 

Yeah, and just playing around with the playoff machine, I'm not getting any scenario that gets us in.

ESPN playoff machine is wrong. Use the NYT playoff simulator. Its correct and much better anyway.

Edited December 19, 2016 by MDH

[NewMexBills]

Bills will have a shot next year like all the other teams, this year is done...don't waste ur time hoping.

[moshermw]

Now picture this, the Bills beat the 2 teams they should have beat in the Jets and Dolphins and are sitting at 9-5, with the Jets and Dolphins to finish the season.

 

Ravens game and the Monday Night Seattle game are the back breakers. A close third is not showing up for the first 2 quarters when Pitt came to town.

[Jamie Nails]

Dude. Raiders game and Seattle were the worst. I was at both to ensure by misery level was at 11 this season

[Nihilarian]

It would be very hard to fire Rex if we finish 9-7 this year. I think even most of the fans who dislike Rex would have to agree. I can't remember when going 9-7 in Buffalo warranted a coach to be fired.

The NY Jets fired Eric Mangini after a 9-7 season and hired Rex who also went 9-7. It just so happened that the Jets made the playoffs in 2009 at 9-7 and because the defense was so good they made it to the AFC Championship game.

 

We have seen what happens to Rex Ryan's defense this year against good teams.

 

My take is it was the Miami and Jets losses that were the backbreakers this year. 493 yards of offense allowed by Buffalo to the crappy (now 4-10) Jets. 454 yards of offense allowed by Buffalo to the Dolphins and Jay Ajayi had 214 on the ground. Buffalo is currently 27th against the run, 31st in rushing TD's allowed.

[Cereal]

Haha. The Panthers' playoff hopes REQUIRE that the 'Skins TIE one of their last two games. Chances are at 0.0004%. And you thought da Bills had it rough!!

[What a Tuel]

I still don't understand how the Bills make the playoffs. Eliminating all other potential teams tieing, the Bills still lose the tiebreaker to Miami according to this:

 

Miami Wins

 

AFC Tiebreakers

• 1st Seed - Oakland
  AFC West Champ
  Wins tie break over New England based on best win percentage in common games.
• 6th Seed - Miami
  Wins tie break over Buffalo based on best win percentage in common games.

First:

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two wild-card teams from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied teams are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.

So Division TieBreaker:

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more teams in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two teams

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the teams). Even 1-1
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Even 3-3
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Even 5-3
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Even 6-6
5. Strength of victory. I'm too lazy to calculate this out right now.
6. Strength of schedule.

Bottom line, I think all of these articles telling us Miami just has to lose out have lazy authors as well, because they don't explain how we beat the Dolphins tiebreaker.

[Cereal]

I still don't understand how the Bills make the playoffs.

You are correct on everything. (ESPN's Tiebreaker thing is broken.)

 

Now, regarding SOV, check out my post here: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/189315-the-afc-playoff-picture/page-29?do=findComment&comment=4169517

 

Per my bolded part in that post: PIT and SD losses, as well as CIN and JAX victories, will help BUF to win the SOV tiebreaker over Miami. BUF actually needs help from CIN and potentially JAX anyway to pass other teams in the hunt. So, I think that if we got to the point where it's just BUF and MIA in the 9-7 tiebreaker, those pieces would ensure our SOV to be higher.

Edited December 21, 2016 by Cereal