CodeMonkey Posted December 13, 2016 Posted December 13, 2016 If that actually happened that's a good reason to stop using their website for playoff percentages. The Bills absolutely needed the Pats to win last night to increase their minuscule playoff hopes to every so slightly above minuscule. It isn't evaluating all the "what if" scenarios that people here are for the Bills to sneak into the playoffs. It updates stats after every game and runs simulations to determine what it thinks all the teams chances are. The Ravens losing by 7 away to the 6-2 Pats must have improved their statistical strength to the point the Bills chances went down in their simulations. More info on how that works: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-elo-ratings-are-back/
PromoTheRobot Posted December 13, 2016 Posted December 13, 2016 (edited) There are three key games that will determine if the Bills can make the playoffs. (Of course winning all three games is assumed here.) 1) Jets must beat Miami week 15 (unlikely) 2) Steelers must beat Ravens week 16 (possible) 3) Bengals must beat Ravens week 17. (unlikely) We go 3-0 and those games happen, we're in at 9-7. Edited December 13, 2016 by PromoTheRobot
Boatdrinks Posted December 13, 2016 Posted December 13, 2016 There are three key games that will determine if the Bills can make the playoffs. (Of course winning all three games is assumed here.) 1) Jets must beat Miami week 15 (unlikely) 2) Steelers must beat Ravens week 16 (possible) 3) Bengals must beat Ravens week 17. (unlikely) We go 3-0 and those games happen, we're in at 9-7. Actually the Ravens haven't done well at CIN in recent years. The most unlikely thing in this equation is actually the Bills winning their 3 remaining games.
MDH Posted December 13, 2016 Posted December 13, 2016 There are three key games that will determine if the Bills can make the playoffs. (Of course winning all three games is assumed here.) 1) Jets must beat Miami week 15 (unlikely) 2) Steelers must beat Ravens week 16 (possible) 3) Bengals must beat Ravens week 17. (unlikely) We go 3-0 and those games happen, we're in at 9-7. The Bills need way more help than that. Also, the Ravens could lose this week to the Eagles and still win that Bengals game. Bills just need the Ravens to lose two of 3, including the Steelers game.
metzelaars_lives Posted December 13, 2016 Posted December 13, 2016 (edited) The Bills need way more help than that. Also, the Ravens could lose this week to the Eagles and still win that Bengals game. Bills just need the Ravens to lose two of 3, including the Steelers game. The would also need no second AFC South to finish better than 8-8 (likely) and the Broncos to lose 2 of 3 (almost certainly). That's really it. If the Jets beat Miami on Saturday, I think everybody's ears will perk up a bit. Edited December 13, 2016 by metzelaars_lives
Beef Jerky Posted December 13, 2016 Posted December 13, 2016 There are three key games that will determine if the Bills can make the playoffs. (Of course winning all three games is assumed here.) 1) Jets must beat Miami week 15 (unlikely) 2) Steelers must beat Ravens week 16 (possible) 3) Bengals must beat Ravens week 17. (unlikely) We go 3-0 and those games happen, we're in at 9-7. Hahahaha
MDH Posted December 13, 2016 Posted December 13, 2016 It's essentially how ****ty can others teams be so the ****ty Bills can sneak into the playoffs and end the streak and get killed in the Wildcard game. I'm fine with that. I don't care if the Bills get into the playoffs with a 7-9 record like the Seahawks did awhile back. I'll take a "we're just not as sh*tty as everybody else" playoff birth any day.
Koufax Posted December 14, 2016 Posted December 14, 2016 There are three key games that will determine if the Bills can make the playoffs. (Of course winning all three games is assumed here.) 1) Jets must beat Miami week 15 (unlikely) 2) Steelers must beat Ravens week 16 (possible) 3) Bengals must beat Ravens week 17. (unlikely) We go 3-0 and those games happen, we're in at 9-7. Need more than that. Titans beat us at 9-7, so they need to be 8-8 too. But the key right now is we don't need much help this week. We need Miami to lose to the Jets, and we need to beat the Browns. If we do that we look at the final two weeks with hopes alive. Eagles beating the Ravens would be nice and Tennessee isn't going to win at Arrowhead, and again we want Marsha to help us out in Denver. Week 16 doesn't have a lot for us to worry about either, but Steelers beating the Ravens and the Broncos losing in Arrowhead would both be nice. If we get to week 17 with hope alive, that is of course a positive, at which point we need several plausible things to go our way (depending on what has happened up to that point, but definitely Ravens losing at Bengals). If you think 6-10 somehow beats 9-7 and helps decisions be made that otherwise wouldn't, and the Pegulas don't have the guts to evaluate coaching just because we beat the Browns, feel free to root against the Bills, but if the Pegulas aren't smart enough to can Rex after this season regardless of 6-10 or 9-7 we are in deeper trouble than a loss to the Browns can fix. And if you think the draft position of a 6-10 team beats that of 9-7 team by more than losing games hurts players, I think you are wrong historically and conceptually. So, while things are bleak and I have given a vote of no confidence to our coach and our QB after the last two weeks (prior to which they were holding on to my support just barely), I will not root against the Bills for any game period.
The Frankish Reich Posted December 18, 2016 Posted December 18, 2016 Well, 538s insta update doesn't have us officially eliminated, but it's now under 1%. Goodbye, 2016. 17 and counting. 😢
Formerly Allan in MD Posted December 18, 2016 Posted December 18, 2016 One game at a time. Can we play the Browns again?
Helpmenow Posted December 18, 2016 Posted December 18, 2016 Murlarkey is 8-6 and he left. He does have a qB
JimBob2232 Posted December 18, 2016 Posted December 18, 2016 Yikes. Things looked to go our way, then all the games broke against us at the end. We are still mathematically in it...but we need ALOT of help, and no room for error. Its almost impossible. But here is what needs to happen. Buffalo win out (I'll say this is likely to make me feel better) NE beat Den and Mia (Likely) Pit beat Baltimore (more likely than not) DEN lose out (playing NE, OAK, KC...possible, but I find it somewhat unlikely they lose 3 in a row) AFC South: HOU and TEN play each other, so one of them is going to have 9+ wins and win the division. The team that doesnt win the division needs to go 0-2. So we need CIN to beat HOU next week and/or JAX to beat TEN to pass them in the standings. CIN beat Baltimore (probably 50/50 at best) IND needs a loss to either OAK or JAX Ouch. Good win today, but we need WAY too much help.
MDH Posted December 18, 2016 Posted December 18, 2016 Yikes. Things looked to go our way, then all the games broke against us at the end. We are still mathematically in it...but we need ALOT of help, and no room for error. Its almost impossible. But here is what needs to happen. Buffalo win out (I'll say this is likely to make me feel better) NE beat Den and Mia (Likely) Pit beat Baltimore (more likely than not) DEN lose out (playing NE, OAK, KC...possible, but I find it somewhat unlikely they lose 3 in a row) AFC South: HOU and TEN play each other, so one of them is going to have 9+ wins and win the division. The team that doesnt win the division needs to go 0-2. So we need CIN to beat HOU next week and/or JAX to beat TEN to pass them in the standings. CIN beat Baltimore (probably 50/50 at best) IND needs a loss to either OAK or JAX Ouch. Good win today, but we need WAY too much help. This is mostly right. Denver doesn't need to lose out though. They need to lose to the Pats and Raiders. The game vs the chiefs doesn't matter.
CodeMonkey Posted December 18, 2016 Posted December 18, 2016 538 update after the early games has the Bills playoff chances down from 2% to < 1%. Still above 0 though
26CornerBlitz Posted December 18, 2016 Author Posted December 18, 2016 @TBNSports This post is very popular right now ... How the #Bills could still make the playoffs. @JaySkurski at [bN] Blitz: http://bit.ly/2i4aOKM
Jamie Nails Posted December 18, 2016 Posted December 18, 2016 I just want to be alive next week and for the raiders to win so the pats have to keep playing and beat Miami in the finale.
The Crowing Rooster Posted December 19, 2016 Posted December 19, 2016 538 now has the Bills chances at 1%! Hey my cousins husband won the Pennsylvania lotto twice. What the odds of doing that?
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