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The AFC Playoff Picture


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Well, every game is important because there is little to no margin for error.

 

But.... IF they went 6-2 or 7-1, we want one of those losses to be the Seattle game.

 

Right wishing we could trade our losses out of the AFC is legitimate. Where it becomes ridiculous is to cap the wins and say a win against Seattle hurts our chances for the playoffs because we can only have a limited number of wins.

 

Winning against Seattle does not mean we lose an AFC game. They are independent of each other.

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Right wishing we could trade our losses out of the AFC is legitimate. Where it becomes ridiculous is to cap the wins and say a win against Seattle hurts our chances for the playoffs because we can only have a limited number of wins.

 

Winning against Seattle does not mean we lose an AFC game. They are independent of each other.

Then there is the issue of tie breakers. Some studies have suggested it may be beneficial to lose to NFC opponents.

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Buffalo Bills Odds of making playoffs: 18.0 percent

 

The Bills still rank 10th in DVOA despite a three-game losing streak, and they have the easiest remaining schedule in the league.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/18002829/playoff-odds-predictions-all-32-nfl-teams-2016-nfl-playoffs

You apparently have to be an "insider" to get to that article.

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Thanks. Miami at 27% is interesting. 538 has the fish chances at 12%.

But they are both close regarding the Bills, both have them at 8-8 with 18% (outsider) and 20% (538) chance of making the playoffs.

Byt 538 had Trumps chances at about 25% so all is not lost ;)

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  • 2 weeks later...

They have to run the table IMO.

 

I think it is actually possible.... but most likely headed for 8-8

This is actually getting interesting. 538 has us at 29% chance of making the playoffs (hey, Trump was only 33! ... maybe a disgruntled rural Michigander ref will deliberately blow a call in our favor or something). So we need to see:

 

- Houston beat Oakland tonight. That would help a lot.

- ideally either Denver or KC will collapse, but more likely one of them will win the West, the other will get a wild card.

- that would leave Pittsburgh, Oakland, Miami all ahead of us in the 2nd wild card derby, but we play all 3. It's the old "control your own destiny" thing. (Baltimore could still get in the way, so let's just hope they don't).

 

Of course, we could blow it all by losing to Jacksonville again or something. Or go out in the Billsiest way ever by beating all the contenders and losing to the Jets. But still: in the hunt with a realistic shot, and I've already bought my turkey. That's better than I expected back in September.

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This is actually getting interesting. 538 has us at 29% chance of making the playoffs (hey, Trump was only 33! ... maybe a disgruntled rural Michigander ref will deliberately blow a call in our favor or something). So we need to see:

 

- Houston beat Oakland tonight. That would help a lot.

- ideally either Denver or KC will collapse, but more likely one of them will win the West, the other will get a wild card.

- that would leave Pittsburgh, Oakland, Miami all ahead of us in the 2nd wild card derby, but we play all 3. It's the old "control your own destiny" thing. (Baltimore could still get in the way, so let's just hope they don't).

 

Of course, we could blow it all by losing to Jacksonville again or something. Or go out in the Billsiest way ever by beating all the contenders and losing to the Jets. But still: in the hunt with a realistic shot, and I've already bought my turkey. That's better than I expected back in September.

 

Ideally, I think we want the Raiders to drop behind KC and/or Denver.... and also Baltimore to win the North.

 

Then, that leaves Pittsburgh and Oakland there for the head-to heads. need to beat the Dolphins of course, the 12/4 Ravens/Dolphins game would be nice for the Ravens to take. They also have the "Marrone Special" New England game the last game of the season

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