What Happens When You Actually Draft a QB Every Year

[Tenhigh]

So I got tired of reading the Tyrod sucks thread that Yeesus created to melt this place to the ground (27 PAGES!?!?). The prevailing wisdom of some folks on this board is that we should draft a QB EVERY year until we hit on one. So I went back to all of the Bills' drafts since Whaley entered the organization to see what that would look like if we drafted a QB in the first round instead of our actual first rounder. The results are below, and should be eye opening for the folks who say QB every year.

 

 

 

Year QB Available at Bills Draft Position Player Actually Drafted

2016 Paxton Lynch Shaq Lawson

2015 Garret Grayson One of 7 first rounders given up for Sammy

2014 Johnny Football Sammy Watkins

2013 EJ EJ Manuel

2012 Brandon Weedon Stephon Gilmore

2011 Jake Locker (or Gabbert) Marcel Darius

2010 Tim Tebow CJ Spiller

Edited October 12, 2016 by Tenhigh

[Seasons1992]

Thanks for the laugh, no only for the column on the left (hot garbage), but your 2015 Player Actually Drafted.

 

So many people around here are Eeyore's........

[plenzmd1]

So I got tired of reading the Tyrod sucks thread that Yeesus created to melt this place to the ground (27 PAGES!?!?). The prevailing wisdom of some folks on this board is that we should draft a QB EVERY year until we hit on one. So I went back to all of the Bills' drafts since Whaley entered the organization to see what that would look like if we drafted a QB in the first round instead of our actual first rounder. The results are below, and should be eye opening for the folks who say QB every year.

 

 

 

Year QB Available at Bills Draft Position Player Actually Drafted

2016 Paxton Lynch Shaq Lawson

2015 Garret Grayson One of 7 first rounders given up for Sammy

2014 Johnny Football Sammy Watkins

2013 EJ EJ Manuel

2012 Brandon Weedon Stephon Gilmore

2011 Jake Locker (or Gabbert) Marcel Darius

2010 Tim Tebow CJ Spiller

i am not sure what thread you are quoted, but drafting a QB every year does not mean a 1st round every year...pretty simple really

[Not at the table Karlos]

Lmao at the 7 first rounders, could have swore it was 8.

I am one that advocates drafting a QB every year until you have one(every other year when you do) but like plenzmd1 said it doesn't mean 1st round. also doesnt have to be the qb picked just after our 1st rounder. Ex- we could have passed on Lynch and took Prescott or passed on weeden and took wilson.

[C.Biscuit97]

i am not sure what thread you are quoted, but drafting a QB every year does not mean a 1st round every year...pretty simple really

Yeah, this is very flawed. We have drafted 3 1st first round Qbs in 30 years!!!! We haven't drafted a qb higher than the 3rd round since Todd Collins. But given all of our success with that way of thinking, we definitely shouldn't address the position any further.

[nucci]

You end up like the Jets....with 4 QBs on your roster and they all stink

[Dr. K]

Yeah, this is very flawed. We have drafted 3 1st first round Qbs in 30 years!!!! We haven't drafted a qb higher than the 3rd round since Todd Collins. But given all of our success with that way of thinking, we definitely shouldn't address the position any further.

J.P. Losman was drafted in the first round, as was EJ

Edited October 12, 2016 by Dr. K

[C.Biscuit97]

J.P. Losman was drafted in the first round, as was EJ

I was including them in the 3 1st rounders part. I should have said additionally, we haven't picked a qb in the 2nd round since Todd Collins. Sorry for the confusion.

 

We don't even take swings at trying to get a franchise qb.

You end up like the Jets....with 4 QBs on your roster and they all stink

Way too early to say that for their young guys. That said, I hated CH and BP. I would hope we would draft better prospects.

[Fadingpain]

So I got tired of reading the Tyrod sucks thread that Yeesus created to melt this place to the ground (27 PAGES!?!?). The prevailing wisdom of some folks on this board is that we should draft a QB EVERY year until we hit on one. So I went back to all of the Bills' drafts since Whaley entered the organization to see what that would look like if we drafted a QB in the first round instead of our actual first rounder. The results are below, and should be eye opening for the folks who say QB every year.

 

 

 

Year QB Available at Bills Draft Position Player Actually Drafted

2016 Paxton Lynch Shaq Lawson

2015 Garret Grayson One of 7 first rounders given up for Sammy

2014 Johnny Football Sammy Watkins

2013 EJ EJ Manuel

2012 Brandon Weedon Stephon Gilmore

2011 Jake Locker (or Gabbert) Marcel Darius

2010 Tim Tebow CJ Spiller

Your lists are poorly constructed and representative of nothing, other than your own desire to prove your point.

 

Try harder next time.

[filthymcnasty08]

Still not over Russell Wilson being right there for us in the 3rd...

[nucci]

Way too early to say that for their young guys. That said, I hated CH and BP. I would hope we would draft better prospects.

Correct, but with other rookie QBs playing well this year and Fitz horrible....says a lot that they don't trust any of them over Fitz at this point

[BringBackOrton]

So I got tired of reading the Tyrod sucks thread that Yeesus created to melt this place to the ground (27 PAGES!?!?). The prevailing wisdom of some folks on this board is that we should draft a QB EVERY year until we hit on one. So I went back to all of the Bills' drafts since Whaley entered the organization to see what that would look like if we drafted a QB in the first round instead of our actual first rounder. The results are below, and should be eye opening for the folks who say QB every year.

 

 

 

 

Year QB Available at Bills Draft Position Player Actually Drafted

2016 Paxton Lynch Shaq Lawson

2015 Garret Grayson One of 7 first rounders given up for Sammy

2014 Johnny Football Sammy Watkins

2013 EJ EJ Manuel

2012 Brandon Weedon Stephon Gilmore

2011 Jake Locker (or Gabbert) Marcel Darius

2010 Tim Tebow CJ Spiller

Why would we have drafted Johnny Football over Teddy Bridgewater? Or the 90 year old Brandon Weeden

 

Why would we take one with our first rounder every year?

[Tenhigh]

Your lists are poorly constructed and representative of nothing, other than your own desire to prove your point.

 

Try harder next time.

Nice addition to the conversation, thanks for your input.

Yeah, this is very flawed. We have drafted 3 1st first round Qbs in 30 years!!!! We haven't drafted a qb higher than the 3rd round since Todd Collins. But given all of our success with that way of thinking, we definitely shouldn't address the position any further.

Never said that we shouldn't address the position, just that we should address it in an intelligent fashion.

i am not sure what thread you are quoted, but drafting a QB every year does not mean a 1st round every year...pretty simple really

Sure it is pretty simple, but the odds of the late round guys panning out are far less than the 1st rounders. You're welcome to go back and complete the analysis.

Lmao at the 7 first rounders, could have swore it was 8.

I am one that advocates drafting a QB every year until you have one(every other year when you do) but like plenzmd1 said it doesn't mean 1st round. also doesnt have to be the qb picked just after our 1st rounder. Ex- we could have passed on Lynch and took Prescott or passed on weeden and took wilson.

 

True, it is a table was simple to illustrate a point. Here is another that seems to support my point above about the odds of later rounders panning out.

http://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/photo/2016/04/20/0ap3000000654427.jpg

Why would we have drafted Johnny Football over Teddy Bridgewater? Or the 90 year old Brandon Weeden

 

Why would we take one with our first rounder every year?

I listed the QB taken next in the draft after our position.

 

As to why the 1st every year, I was too lazy to list them all.

[BuffaloBaumer]

I would like to see all the QBs that look legit right now who were drafted AFTER the 1st round. Whaley has done a great job outside the QB position so how do we get someone who knows what a QB is actually supposed to look like?

[BringBackOrton]

Nice addition to the conversation, thanks for your input.

 

Never said that we shouldn't address the position, just that we should address it in an intelligent fashion.

 

Sure it is pretty simple, but the odds of the late round guys panning out are far less than the 1st rounders. You're welcome to go back and complete the analysis.

 

 

True, it is a table was simple to illustrate a point. Here is another that seems to support my point above about the odds of later rounders panning out.

http://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/photo/2016/04/20/0ap3000000654427.jpg

 

I listed the QB taken next in the draft after our position.

 

As to why the 1st every year, I was too lazy to list them all.

That seems like a poor model to base anything off of. Especially when Bridgewater/Carr could've been the pick in 2014, Wilson in 2012, Dalton in 2011, etc etc. all picked after the Bills and would've painted a much different picture.

[plenzmd1]

I would like to see all the QBs that look legit right now who were drafted AFTER the 1st round. Whaley has done a great job outside the QB position so how do we get someone who knows what a QB is actually supposed to look like?

I think there are more than a handful no? All these guys may not be great...but looks like 1/4 of the league there...only one that may be bad is Osweiler

 

Wilson

Dalton

Carr

Osweiler

Siemian

Brady

Cousins

Prescott

[The Frankish Reich]

That seems like a poor model to base anything off of. Especially when Bridgewater/Carr could've been the pick in 2014, Wilson in 2012, Dalton in 2011, etc etc. all picked after the Bills and would've painted a much different picture.

Correct. The proposition amounts to this: if we'd taken a QB every year AND if we'd drafted in the manner of the Browns (Weeden, Manziel) we'd be more like the Browns (worst team in the NFL?) than the Bills (solidly mediocre?). Which is no doubt true, but also not particularly insightful. And of course equally true and unilluminating: if we'd evaluated talent and drafted QBs in the manner of the Seahawks or Bengals, we'd be looking at our 4th or 5th consecutive playoff year.

[Chuck Wagon]

Unless you are "moneyballing" like the Browns and giving away elite top of the draft talent so you can pick in the 4th round a few extra times, the simple economics of the game make it extremely difficult to use picks in the 2nd/3rd/4th round on QBs every single year. Cheap talent is the lifeblood of every successful franchise, it's a game of attrition and there's always someone like the Jaguars or Saints willing to pay marginal starting talent in the free agent market. What are the odds of a QB hitting after the 5th round? Looking around the league, it's pretty low, and it's obvious at this point that Brady is an extreme exception not any sort of rule.

 

Outside of the Cam Newton "Freaks of Nature", young QBs best chance of success is a system that fits them and an opportunity to learn, which is extremely hard if you are just tossing them out with the bath water every year. The teams that "draft a QB every year" are the Jets and the Browns, both of those teams have no depth and have developed no young QBs.

[Yoho]

No No No. You miss the point, I didn't want the Bills to pick the bad quarterback, I wanted them to pick the good quarterback. "I knew" we should have drafted Dak Prescott and Russel Wilson and to pass on the bums you mentioned. I said so right at the time. I looked at my cousin Cletus and said "Wilson fell to us, we got to pick him" and Cletus said "yup". So if Clete and I knew how could Whaley not have known. Only the Bills would allow him to get to the 3rd round. What do you mean that every other team in football had to pass on him to get to the 3rd round???

 

I say fire Whaley and hire Cletus>

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I would like to see all the QBs that look legit right now who were drafted AFTER the 1st round. Whaley has done a great job outside the QB position so how do we get someone who knows what a QB is actually supposed to look like?

 

What about Cardale? He might look like a QB.