All 22 - Passing Yards Left on Table Analysis

[3rdand12]

 

That's very true, but it has to be said that TT's WR aren't doing him any favors.

 

I once thought that Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, Donald Jones, and Scott Chandler were a sound WR/TE group, but after watching some other teams ....um, No. Are TT's throws perfect, No, but quality NFL WR and TE haul those in more often than not. Woods is doing OK overall and so is Clay, but Glass Goodwin has a catch percentage under 29%. You heard me right, if Taylor throws to him, 2/3 of the time he doesn't haul it in. And yeah, that was a bit high but if you're a 5'9" WR on an NFL team you by damn better have a vertical leap.

But MG has the most TDs, and longest one.

Thing is, he should be the #4-5 guy. He is not the two by choice i hope

Powell and Hunter need to step up quickly.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Sammy Watkins and Percey Harvin. That is what this QB needs on the outside. If you can't replicate you gotta try to get as close as you can. Speedy athletic guys that can run curls and then RAC or get open up top.

 

Add a big body or use someone like hunter and have him run slot over the middle.

[3rdand12]

Sammy Watkins and Percey Harvin. That is what this QB needs on the outside. If you can't replicate you gotta try to get as close as you can. Speedy athletic guys that can run curls and then RAC or get open up top.

 

Add a big body or use someone like hunter and have him run slot over the middle.

I thought Harvin Watkins Goodwin and McCoy were just what TT would love that first year.

 

On positive note, Tyrod has had his growing pains. But he keeps improving in some of the areas i though he most needed.

#OVERTHEMIDDLE and reading the defenses (thanks Anthony ! )

 

Starting to use the pocket a bit more too

 

edit bold

TT needs a guy like Hunter to do these things. Not just RZ

Edited October 11, 2016 by 3rdand12

[Bocephuz]

I would like to genuinely thank you for this posting effort !

For those of us that do watch the games, sometimes we get caught in the emotion. Or perhaps focus on one player or feature of the game. Rewatching and All 22 show us what we missed or corrects an opinion we might have formed.

 

Thanks again Bocephuz for breaking it down a bit

Thank you.. watching in real time should be about emotion/fun/energy as its very difficult to pick up detail and nuance. All 22 a few days after allows for objective detailed review

[Coach Tuesday]

 

On the Hunter TD? No. TT had all day to throw. He got happy feet and bailed. There was no pressure. This is the moment he bails:

 

 

Here it is from the broadcast angle. Clay hasn't even taken a step up field after chipping:

 

No - on the Woods overthrow.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I thought Harvin Watkins Goodwin and McCoy were just what TT would love that first year.

 

On positive note, Tyrod has had his growing pains. But he keeps improving in some of the areas i though he most needed.

#OVERTHEMIDDLE and reading the defenses (thanks Anthony ! )

 

Starting to use the pocket a bit more too

 

edit bold

TT needs a guy like Hunter to do these things. Not just RZ

The hunter play was barely a route. Hit the back line and try and get open. Make sure to stay in bounds.

[P51]

After watching the All 22 I compiled a list of passing plays that "could have.. should have been". As you will see .. there was one big obvious play that is on Tyrod solely. There were also several big drops that hurt in various ways.

 

TYROD UNFORCED ERROR

 

Q3: 5:38 - 55 yards lost - Woods sells the slant.. CB bites .. and Woods is wide open down left side with no safety in sight. TT throws off his heels rather than stepping up in pocket (pressure is coming from the right side blitzing LB. but RB picks it up). If Tyrod hits this play.. much of the post game chatter we are hearing about his "game manager" stats would not be happening.

 

 

RECEIVER UNFORCED ERRORS

 

Q2 : 7:38 - 20+ yards lost?? - Charles Clay drops a well thrown called screen pass. As you will see below.. the linemen are pulling his way and there is a great deal of space for YAC for Clay. This was a great call by Anthony Lynn to take advantage of the Rams aggressive DEs.. but Clay let his QB.. and the team down on this one

 

 

 

 

Q2 - 7:22 - (5 yards and crucial 3rd down missed) - Tyrod makes a decisive quick throw to Goodwin who is running a hitch at the sticks. The throw is a tad high..and Goodwin takes a hit.. but nevertheless Goodwin really needs to come down with this one. The result is a 3 and out.. less plays for the offense and a punt.

 

 

 

Q2 - 1:01 - 15 yards? - Woods is wide open with some space to run.. but drops a decently thrown in route.

 

 

 

 

Q4 - 4:47 - 7 yards lost - Powell drops a slant pass and costs the team a chance to move the chains. It appears he alligator arms it as he doesn't want to take the hit.

 

 

 

 

 

So here are some hypothetical adjusted numbers for Tyrod

 

ACTUAL NUMBERS - 12/23 - 124 yds - 2 TDs - 0 turnovers

 

NO DROPS - 16/23 - 173 yds - 2 TDs - 0 turnovers

• Keep in mind .. several of these drops would have resulted in 1st downs. 23 attempts is a very low number of passing attempts .. and this low number is mostly due to crucial drops that could have moved the chains and created more opportunities.

WOODS DEEP BALL HITS/ NO DROPS - 17/23 - 228 YDS - 3 TDs - turnovers

• I think we would all take this stat line every week ..

At the end of the day Tyrod hurt himself on missing the deep ball to Woods.. but in my opinion his receivers let him down more times than he let them down. I think I only saw 2 obvious unforced errors from Tyrod on throws ( an overthrown out route to Goodwin and the Woods deep ball).

 

After re-watching this I feel better about Taylor than I did when watching in real time. History shows that he will start hitting his deep balls on a more regular basis.. and the recent past shows him starting to improve on the quick timing patterns as well as in the red zone. That combination .. along with limiting turnovers should be a winning formula for the Bills.

Very well done Bo, I agree with everything for the most part and what I don't is nitpicking of a high degree. TT def. threw off platform, but the placement was actually good leading Woods, hard to tell about the trajectory, regardless he threw the ball about a stride too far maybe needing a little more air under it on the deep ball too Woods.

 

The screen to Clay and it was a TE screen no doubt, had me cursing Clay Sunday afternoon, the ball placement might have been the best I have ever seen from TT on a short pass, right on the sweet spot leading Clay and his momentum into the open area behind his convoy heading up field. As discussed in the thread, he has a defender (A. Donald) heading his way, who interestingly had a faster combine 40 than Clay, but Clay should have caught that ball and run a long way if not All the way. Great call by Lynn and execution by all but 85.

 

Goodwin and Woods drops are all on them as well.

The Powell drop looked like gator arms to me as well and once that ball gets into the pads, it's hard to catch off the ricochet. I couldn't tell if the defender got his hand on the ball or not, so could have been a good play by Johnson I think in coverage...

 

Generally speaking I agree TT was let down more than he let down, good stuff, great post, thank you!

[Marty McFly]

After watching the All 22 I compiled a list of passing plays that "could have.. should have been". As you will see .. there was one big obvious play that is on Tyrod solely. There were also several big drops that hurt in various ways.

 

Great post and analysis. Keep em comin Bocebreh. Man if Tyrod woulda hit that Woods bomb!

 

That's very true, but it has to be said that TT's WR aren't doing him any favors.

 

I once thought that Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, Donald Jones, and Scott Chandler were a sound WR/TE group, but after watching some other teams ....um, No. Are TT's throws perfect, No, but quality NFL WR and TE haul those in more often than not. Woods is doing OK overall and so is Clay, but Glass Goodwin has a catch percentage under 29%. You heard me right, if Taylor throws to him, 2/3 of the time he doesn't haul it in. And yeah, that was a bit high but if you're a 5'9" WR on an NFL team you by damn better have a vertical leap.

Those Goodwin stats are really discouraging. I was lookin forward to him stepping up and earning a 2nd contract after being injured every year. Hes gotta make those tough catches. CAN YOU IMAGINE IF TYROD HAD Mike Evans, Marshall, Decker, or any other Super WR with some height? Oh man this offense would be rolllllllllllinggg

[Mr. WEO]

Good stuff Bocephus.

 

Goodwin can't run a pattern to save his life. And isn't he an Olympic jumper? He barely gets 6 inches off the ground on that play.

[bobobonators]

Good post. Thanks for the work. The drop by Woods on that slant is what annoyed me the most all day:

 

1. You are now the best wr on this team. Catch that ball thrown right to your hands.

 

2. He couldve probably gained 20yac on that play.

[NoSaint]

 

That's very true, but it has to be said that TT's WR aren't doing him any favors.

 

I once thought that Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, Donald Jones, and Scott Chandler were a sound WR/TE group, but after watching some other teams ....um, No. Are TT's throws perfect, No, but quality NFL WR and TE haul those in more often than not. Woods is doing OK overall and so is Clay, but Glass Goodwin has a catch percentage under 29%. You heard me right, if Taylor throws to him, 2/3 of the time he doesn't haul it in. And yeah, that was a bit high but if you're a 5'9" WR on an NFL team you by damn better have a vertical leap.

I get that. I do! Honestly I was probably one of the biggest skeptics of whether that run they went on with that group being sustainable. This WR group is below average without Sammy.

 

But even a good group isn't getting everything and our qb is going to have to be more productive some day too though.

 

I've been hearing that 8-1 stat when TT is under 200 and it's one of those "take them where you can get them but don't bank on those" situations. That's not saying he can't. But acknowledging that he hasn't and needs to. If we are resorting to totaling up yardage like this- some stuff isn't working right.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Good stuff Bocephus.

 

Goodwin can't run a pattern to save his life. And isn't he an Olympic jumper? He barely gets 6 inches off the ground on that play.

 

He's an Olympic long-jumper, but the muscles really ought to be there for a better vertical.

 

I'm sorry to say this because I'm not into armchair warriors slamming athlete's toughness, but I think he was "hearing footsteps". He knows the DB who gave props to his speed and let him get open, is right there, and if he goes up full extension for the ball he is going to get nailed, hard, as he comes down. Goodwin, you got nailed anyway, so next time make the catch, 'kay?

 

To give Goodwin his due, WEO, I do think he ran a pretty route on that endzone TD.

Edited October 12, 2016 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Saxum]

Good to know, but couldnt you do this for just about every starting QB in the league?

 

And you could bash every QB in the league ... but you don't so what is the point?

 

So every team has the same number of dropped passes every week, in the same game situations?

 

If you are going to reasonably critique the QUARTERBACK, you have to account for plays outside of his control (like drops). It's really pretty simple.

 

Reasonably? LOL!!!!

[Marty McFly]

 

On the Hunter TD? No. TT had all day to throw. He got happy feet and bailed. There was no pressure. This is the moment he bails:

 

I must have watched the replay and slowed down version of this 10 times trying to figure it out and I did. Tyrod left the pocket to pull defenders down to protect vs the QB sneak. It worked he pulled one of the CBs off Hunter and while they other was watching wat he was doing he nailed Hunter in the back for the TD. That was a really smart way of using the threat of him running to open up coverage. This instance was def not happy feat there was a method to his madness here. Watch it again and youll see what I mean super cat. Had Tyrod NOT done that, those 2 DBs would have kept Hunter blanketed.

Edited October 12, 2016 by Marty McFly

[Thurman#1]

To me, posts like this seem a bit bizarre. I wonder if we're the only fanbase around saying things like "See, here's video of a mistake. If we hadn't made that mistake, things would have been better. So it's OK, because we had a chance to make a play but didn't because of a mistake. I feel much better now." I guess we're not, but the basic idea is unsound in several ways.

 

Mistakes are bad. Yeah, you can say that if we hadn't made them things would have been better. But we did make them. Things are not better. I'm sure you could take any team in the league and isolate a bunch of plays from every game like this. If you give them credit for plays they should have made as we are with the Bills here, then everybody would have better stats, not just the Bills. But those plays didn't happen. For any of the teams that had some bad plays, which is all of them.

 

As for the specifics:

 

The play in Q2 at 7:38 is a handoff to McCoy. Are you maybe talking about the first play of the second quarter? Q2 15:00? If you are, yeah, Clay should have had it, and I agree he stood a chance of getting away from the guy (Aaron Donald) chasing him, but maybe not. Clay was standing still and Donald already was running towards him. And Donald ran a ridiculous 4.68 40 at the combine, slightly faster than Clay. My guess is Donald gets him. Maybe not, but there's certainly a decent possibility of that happening. If he hadn't been caught there was a good chance to make good yardage.

 

Q2 7:03. Whatever else you want to call it, that wasn't an unforced error. The DB stripped it loose from Goodwin, making a nice play.

 

Q2 1:01. Solid throw. Woods should have had it, and yeah, he had room to run.

 

Q4 4:47. That throw was deflected away from Powell by the CB. Just watched it several times on Game Pass.

 

 

In any case, the Bills are almost exactly average as far as dropped passes. Four so far this year. That ties them for 20th, way behind the Colts with 12, the Lions and Jets with 11, the Texans, Rams and Saints with 9 and so on. And it's true that we throw less than most teams but our drops per pass attempt is almost exactly average.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving

 

 

 

I sympathize with the urge to paint things in a better light, but in the long run I'd rather look at things head on.

Edited October 12, 2016 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

Agree with those defending Powell. That was a really good pass break up by the defender. Also think on the Goodwin one that is an example where Tyrod just has to throw a better ball. I am not defending Glass who is scared to sneeze, much less take a hit, for fear of a bit falling off.... but Tyrod has to throw a better ball there. No excuses.

[eball]

The Clay and Woods drops, along with the overthrow of Woods, were in my opinion the three biggest plays the Bills left on the field Sunday -- all of them were potential scoring plays. Two were on the receivers and one was on Tyrod. If the Bills hit one or two of them, most of us are probably even happier than we already are with the W and aren't looking for ways to criticize the QB.

 

Doesn't it say something, though, that despite not making any of those plays the Bills still won by 11? Seems like reason for optimism to me, but I'm just a stupid homer who isn't capable of looking at anything critically when it comes to the Bills.

[4merper4mer]

 

In my opinion he is much more spooked by the blitzing lb coming from his right.. and that is what hurries his clock up. It's a shame because the rb does a good job picking up the blitzer.

 

Cordy does initially get beaten.. but he recovers and drives the guy just far enough behind TT to save the pocket.

 

 

 

I see what you're saying but I'm not sure I agree. It wasn't just Cordy getting beat. The guard got beat too, I can't pick up the number so I'm not sure if it was RI on that play or not. So the entire left side of our OL lost their battles and he is throwing to his left off balance. Could he have stepped up? Looks like it but in real time action with a player that open I'm not sure most QBs do that. He trusted his arm with the off balance throw and it didn't work out.

[bobobonators]

To me, posts like this seem a bit bizarre. I wonder if we're the only fanbase around saying things like "See, here's video of a mistake. If we hadn't made that mistake, things would have been better. So it's OK, because we had a chance to make a play but didn't because of a mistake. I feel much better now." I guess we're not, but the basic idea is unsound in several ways.

 

Mistakes are bad. Yeah, you can say that if we hadn't made them things would have been better. But we did make them. Things are not better. I'm sure you could take any team in the league and isolate a bunch of plays from every game like this. If you give them credit for plays they should have made as we are with the Bills here, then everybody would have better stats, not just the Bills. But those plays didn't happen. For any of the teams that had some bad plays, which is all of them.

 

As for the specifics:

 

The play in Q2 at 7:38 is a handoff to McCoy. Are you maybe talking about the first play of the second quarter? Q2 15:00? If you are, yeah, Clay should have had it, and I agree he stood a chance of getting away from the guy (Aaron Donald) chasing him, but maybe not. Clay was standing still and Donald already was running towards him. And Donald ran a ridiculous 4.68 40 at the combine, slightly faster than Clay. My guess is Donald gets him. Maybe not, but there's certainly a decent possibility of that happening. If he hadn't been caught there was a good chance to make good yardage.

 

Q2 7:03. Whatever else you want to call it, that wasn't an unforced error. The DB stripped it loose from Goodwin, making a nice play.

 

Q2 1:01. Solid throw. Woods should have had it, and yeah, he had room to run.

 

Q4 4:47. That throw was deflected away from Powell by the CB. Just watched it several times on Game Pass.

 

 

In any case, the Bills are almost exactly average as far as dropped passes. Four so far this year. That ties them for 20th, way behind the Colts with 12, the Lions and Jets with 11, the Texans, Rams and Saints with 9 and so on. And it's true that we throw less than most teams but our drops per pass attempt is almost exactly average.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving

 

 

 

I sympathize with the urge to paint things in a better light, but in the long run I'd rather look at things head on.

What exactly do you think teams do when coaches review film with the players?

No one is saying the mistakes were OK.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

To me, posts like this seem a bit bizarre. I wonder if we're the only fanbase around saying things like "See, here's video of a mistake. If we hadn't made that mistake, things would have been better. So it's OK, because we had a chance to make a play but didn't because of a mistake. I feel much better now." I guess we're not, but the basic idea is unsound in several ways.

 

Mistakes are bad. Yeah, you can say that if we hadn't made them things would have been better. But we did make them. Things are not better. I'm sure you could take any team in the league and isolate a bunch of plays from every game like this. If you give them credit for plays they should have made as we are with the Bills here, then everybody would have better stats, not just the Bills. But those plays didn't happen. For any of the teams that had some bad plays, which is all of them.

 

As for the specifics:

 

The play in Q2 at 7:38 is a handoff to McCoy. Are you maybe talking about the first play of the second quarter? Q2 15:00? If you are, yeah, Clay should have had it, and I agree he stood a chance of getting away from the guy (Aaron Donald) chasing him, but maybe not. Clay was standing still and Donald already was running towards him. And Donald ran a ridiculous 4.68 40 at the combine, slightly faster than Clay. My guess is Donald gets him. Maybe not, but there's certainly a decent possibility of that happening. If he hadn't been caught there was a good chance to make good yardage.

 

Q2 7:03. Whatever else you want to call it, that wasn't an unforced error. The DB stripped it loose from Goodwin, making a nice play.

 

Q2 1:01. Solid throw. Woods should have had it, and yeah, he had room to run.

 

Q4 4:47. That throw was deflected away from Powell by the CB. Just watched it several times on Game Pass.

 

 

In any case, the Bills are almost exactly average as far as dropped passes. Four so far this year. That ties them for 20th, way behind the Colts with 12, the Lions and Jets with 11, the Texans, Rams and Saints with 9 and so on. And it's true that we throw less than most teams but our drops per pass attempt is almost exactly average.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving

 

 

 

I sympathize with the urge to paint things in a better light, but in the long run I'd rather look at things head on.

 

I think what the OP is trying to say is - TT is getting lit up on the boards from people stating that his performance in this game was unacceptable. This is a take that - stats don't tell the whole story for this particular game.

 

This takes a look at some of the plays left on the table that would've extended a few of those 3 and outs. That means more chances for Shady, Gillislee, and probably at least 4 or 5 more passing attempts.