All 22 - Passing Yards Left on Table Analysis

[Bocephuz]

After watching the All 22 I compiled a list of passing plays that "could have.. should have been". As you will see .. there was one big obvious play that is on Tyrod solely. There were also several big drops that hurt in various ways.

 

TYROD UNFORCED ERROR

 

Q3: 5:38 - 55 yards lost - Woods sells the slant.. CB bites .. and Woods is wide open down left side with no safety in sight. TT throws off his heels rather than stepping up in pocket (pressure is coming from the right side blitzing LB. but RB picks it up). If Tyrod hits this play.. much of the post game chatter we are hearing about his "game manager" stats would not be happening.

 

 

RECEIVER UNFORCED ERRORS

 

Q2 : 7:38 - 20+ yards lost?? - Charles Clay drops a well thrown called screen pass. As you will see below.. the linemen are pulling his way and there is a great deal of space for YAC for Clay. This was a great call by Anthony Lynn to take advantage of the Rams aggressive DEs.. but Clay let his QB.. and the team down on this one

 

 

 

 

Q2 - 7:22 - (5 yards and crucial 3rd down missed) - Tyrod makes a decisive quick throw to Goodwin who is running a hitch at the sticks. The throw is a tad high..and Goodwin takes a hit.. but nevertheless Goodwin really needs to come down with this one. The result is a 3 and out.. less plays for the offense and a punt.

 

 

 

Q2 - 1:01 - 15 yards? - Woods is wide open with some space to run.. but drops a decently thrown in route.

 

 

 

 

Q4 - 4:47 - 7 yards lost - Powell drops a slant pass and costs the team a chance to move the chains. It appears he alligator arms it as he doesn't want to take the hit.

 

 

 

 

 

So here are some hypothetical adjusted numbers for Tyrod

 

ACTUAL NUMBERS - 12/23 - 124 yds - 2 TDs - 0 turnovers

 

NO DROPS - 16/23 - 173 yds - 2 TDs - 0 turnovers

• Keep in mind .. several of these drops would have resulted in 1st downs. 23 attempts is a very low number of passing attempts .. and this low number is mostly due to crucial drops that could have moved the chains and created more opportunities.

WOODS DEEP BALL HITS/ NO DROPS - 17/23 - 228 YDS - 3 TDs - turnovers

• I think we would all take this stat line every week ..

 

At the end of the day Tyrod hurt himself on missing the deep ball to Woods.. but in my opinion his receivers let him down more times than he let them down. I think I only saw 2 obvious unforced errors from Tyrod on throws ( an overthrown out route to Goodwin and the Woods deep ball).

 

After re-watching this I feel better about Taylor than I did when watching in real time. History shows that he will start hitting his deep balls on a more regular basis.. and the recent past shows him starting to improve on the quick timing patterns as well as in the red zone. That combination .. along with limiting turnovers should be a winning formula for the Bills.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Bocephuz

[Kelly the Dog]

Good post. When I watched the game again yesterday I thought the same thing. And he threw several very nice balls.

[eball]

Thanks Bo. I like when you provide these analyses.

[Jauronimo]

Really good stuff per usual, Bocephuz, if that even is your real name.

[LeGOATski]

Nice. When he missed that deep pass to Woods, I thought he had no space to step up, but he clearly did.

 

He barely missed that throw. If he stayed calm in the pocket, it would likely be a TD.

[Rubes]

That screen to Clay was incredibly well executed...except for the !@#$ing drop. The Rams had 8 in the box on that play, with all of them except one sold on the fake handoff. If Clay catches that, he has three blockers in front of him. One is blocking the one guy who didn't go for the fake. The other two had nobody in sight...and only three other players left on the defense not in the picture. Most likely one was a DB on the opposite side of the field covering the WR there, leaving only two left to make the play.

 

That play could have gone the distance depending on where those other two guys were.

[The Big Cat]

Thanks for breaking this down. I was very curious what his numbers would have looked like had THESE specific plays gone differently. Of course, the rest is up for grabs on some since they would have extended drives.

[BringBackOrton]

A better throw to Woods and the game basically ends.

[Bocephuz]

Good post. When I watched the game again yesterday I thought the same thing. And he threw several very nice balls.

 

thx

Thanks for breaking this down. I was very curious what his numbers would have looked like had THESE specific plays gone differently. Of course, the rest is up for grabs on some since they would have extended drives.

 

That's the frustrating thing... it would have been interesting to see how he would have done had those 1st downs not have been needlessly squandered

A better throw to Woods and the game basically ends.

 

Indeed. History shows he'll hit those more than he misses so I hope they keep taking shots.

Nice. When he missed that deep pass to Woods, I thought he had no space to step up, but he clearly did.

 

He barely missed that throw. If he stayed calm in the pocket, it would likely be a TD.

 

He's demonstrated a few times in the past that he can step up in the pocket and deliver. Hopefully they continue to work on that with him.

 

I also noticed that for the most part was chopping his feet nicely while buying time on the shotgun snaps rather than being flat footed like he was in the Jets/ Ravens games. That tells me he takes well to coaching.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Good stuff.

 

To be the contrarian here:

 

1) would the screen to Clay really have worked? There looks like there is a defender coming hard right at his side. I think he could probably have avoided him, but I also think the presence of that defender was why he dropped the ball-- caught peaking at the defender coming towards him.

 

2) On the Powell play, in a real time, i thought the CB made a good play on the ball and maybe deflected it. Less clear from the All-22 angle though.

[plenzmd1]

That screen to Clay was incredibly well executed...except for the !@#$ing drop. The Rams had 8 in the box on that play, with all of them except one sold on the fake handoff. If Clay catches that, he has three blockers in front of him. One is blocking the one guy who didn't go for the fake. The other two had nobody in sight...and only three other players left on the defense not in the picture. Most likely one was a DB on the opposite side of the field covering the WR there, leaving only two left to make the play.

 

That play could have gone the distance depending on where those other two guys were.

you an old fart too and may remember all the screens we used to run with Bramer in the early 80's. I mentioned the Rams conga game in a pre-game thread...and in that game Bramer had a TE screen very similar to this for a 60 yard gain, and man i was wistful for the days we used the TE screen more.

 

 

And then this unfolded...I agree, Clay very likely could score on this play if he catches it. Loved IT!!!!

[The Big Cat]

Good stuff.

 

To be the contrarian here:

 

1) would the screen to Clay really have worked? There looks like there is a defender coming hard right at his side. I think he could probably have avoided him, but I also think the presence of that defender was why he dropped the ball-- caught peaking at the defender coming towards him.

 

2) On the Powell play, in a real time, i thought the CB made a good play on the ball and maybe deflected it. Less clear from the All-22 angle though.

 

Agree on Powell, but that defender had a good 20 feet to make up on Clay, who was already moving in that direction. He wasn't flat-footed.

[Bocephuz]

Good stuff.

 

To be the contrarian here:

 

1) would the screen to Clay really have worked? There looks like there is a defender coming hard right at his side. I think he could probably have avoided him, but I also think the presence of that defender was why he dropped the ball-- caught peaking at the defender coming towards him.

 

2) On the Powell play, in a real time, i thought the CB made a good play on the ball and maybe deflected it. Less clear from the All-22 angle though.

 

Good stuff.

 

To be the contrarian here:

 

1) would the screen to Clay really have worked? There looks like there is a defender coming hard right at his side. I think he could probably have avoided him, but I also think the presence of that defender was why he dropped the ball-- caught peaking at the defender coming towards him.

 

- That defender is probably why he dropped the ball.. but that defender was on the back side of the play and had Clay caught it his momentum should have carried him away from that guy and towards a gaping hole with multiple linemen pulling and blocking for him.

 

2) On the Powell play, in a real time, i thought the CB made a good play on the ball and maybe deflected it. Less clear from the All-22 angle though.

 

- It's somewhat tough to see.. but from what I can tell the ball got through cleanly, hit him in the hands and he stopped short not wanting to take the hit from the db coming at this face which made him cough the ball up. Tough play.. but Andre Reed would've caught that ball and taken it like a man.

Thanks Bo. I like when you provide these analyses.

thank you.. I always wonder if they are coherent enough or note.

[QB Bills]

Thanks for the write-up.

 

So even if Taylor et al play mistake-free ball, he would have topped out at just over 200 yards. Yet people think he's not any good because he's not throwing for 300+. That's just not the way this offense is meant to operate.

 

I bet if you did this type of analysis for the other QBs out there, you'd find every single one of them makes multiple mistakes in almost every game.

 

Tyrod is unconventional, but he's good. The Bills can win with him if they don't force him to be a pocket passer. They need to think outside the box and cater to his skills. The guy makes incredible plays when a set play breaks down. He's dangerous when he has to improvise. They need to hone that skill, not discourage it.

[gr8billsfan]

I was there and boy was that wide open pass to R.Woods a pain in the arse! Gotta love the win against this Rams defense, let's go buffalo!

[eball]

Good to know, but couldnt you do this for just about every starting QB in the league?

 

He could, but it would take an awful lot of his time. Your point?

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

 

Agree on Powell, but that defender had a good 20 feet to make up on Clay, who was already moving in that direction. He wasn't flat-footed.

 

 

 

Good stuff.

 

To be the contrarian here:

 

1) would the screen to Clay really have worked? There looks like there is a defender coming hard right at his side. I think he could probably have avoided him, but I also think the presence of that defender was why he dropped the ball-- caught peaking at the defender coming towards him.

 

- That defender is probably why he dropped the ball.. but that defender was on the back side of the play and had Clay caught it his momentum should have carried him away from that guy and towards a gaping hole with multiple linemen pulling and blocking for him.

 

2) On the Powell play, in a real time, i thought the CB made a good play on the ball and maybe deflected it. Less clear from the All-22 angle though.

 

- It's somewhat tough to see.. but from what I can tell the ball got through cleanly, hit him in the hands and he stopped short not wanting to take the hit from the db coming at this face which made him cough the ball up. Tough play.. but Andre Reed would've caught that ball and taken it like a man.

thank you.. I always wonder if they are coherent enough or note.

 

Yeah, I tend to agree on the Clay play that the defender wouldn't have caught him. Just wanted to float the idea.

[Bocephuz]

Thanks for the write-up.

 

So even if Taylor et al play mistake-free ball, he would have topped out at just over 200 yards. Yet people think he's not any good because he's not throwing for 300+. That's just not the way this offense is meant to operate.

 

I bet if you did this type of analysis for the other QBs out there, you'd find every single one of them makes multiple mistakes in almost every game.

 

Tyrod is unconventional, but he's good. The Bills can win with him if they don't force him to be a pocket passer. They need to think outside the box and cater to his skills. The guy makes incredible plays when a set play breaks down. He's dangerous when he has to improvise. They need to hone that skill, not discourage it.

 

I agree that we need to let Tyrod be Tyrod.. the less stuff he has in his head the better. Just focus on little things like footwork, climbing the pocket etc, encourage him to trust his instincts rather than having every thing scripted out for him.

 

Also.. I think my main take away is that his low yardage total is due mainly to having so few attempts ( 23) which can mostly be attributed to his receivers dropping key moving the chains balls that limit the total number of offensive plays.

[The Big Cat]

Thanks for the write-up.

 

So even if Taylor et al play mistake-free ball, he would have topped out at just over 200 yards. Yet people think he's not any good because he's not throwing for 300+. That's just not the way this offense is meant to operate.

 

I bet if you did this type of analysis for the other QBs out there, you'd find every single one of them makes multiple mistakes in almost every game.

 

Tyrod is unconventional, but he's good. The Bills can win with him if they don't force him to be a pocket passer. They need to think outside the box and cater to his skills. The guy makes incredible plays when a set play breaks down. He's dangerous when he has to improvise. They need to hone that skill, not discourage it.

 

No. Not at all. Many of these drops killed drives. We don't know how many yards he could have piled up with increased snaps.

 

Also, the team ran for about 200 yards in a double digit win on the road. Why do we need to throw for 300?

[Bocephuz]

 

He could, but it would take an awful lot of his time. Your point?

 

Good to know, but couldnt you do this for just about every starting QB in the league?

You certainly could... I'm not really making any statement about how good he is compared to other NFL QBs with this however. My main point was to get a better feel for how much of the low yardage total was on Tyrod and how much was attributed to factors beyond his control.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Bocephuz