The place to repent for McCoy Doubters

[Deranged Rhino]

That is not what I said. I said he is here no matter what next season and he is likely here the year after as well. On the back of this season he would have to really slump in 2017 to be cut before the 2018 season... do you not agree?

 

He knows McCoy won't be cut before the 2018 season, that much is certain.

 

Otherwise he wouldn't have backed out of our friendly bet. Twice.

 

Spiller was GOOD IN SPACE.

Gilmore is a SHUT DOWN CORNER and a STUD.

Whitner was a GOOD TACKLER.

Watkins was the BEST WR IN THAT DRAFT.

McCoy is ELITE

 

We both could go on and on about these and other very costly mistakes. Even if the above descriptions are all true, the fact is that the wins are just not there. The playoff appearances are just not there. That is because of shaky quarterback play, poor drafting and planning, needlessly trading away draft selections, pitiful coaching, rank amateur GMs, and wasting cap space by signing players to unnecessarily inflated contracts.

 

McCoy is a pleasure to watch most of the time, at least as of late. Still, count me as one who thinks the contract was dumb, and even typical of Whaley, who just can't wait to toss away our best resources.

 

As you can see, Badol doesn't need me to speak for him and I am not trying to, but I sense that the above is at least partially his take.

 

I'm not a guy who thinks the Bills can't do any wrong. I'm also not above criticizing the front offices for bad moves. Back under my original screen name I had many, many, MANY disagreements with the previous regimes. I've had a few with Whaley as well but I've been more of a fan of him than I have been a critic because I think he understands how to build a team in the modern NFL. He's had misses, and I get why people criticize him though I think it's largely unfair. And I completely agree that Shady's contract is a valid point to debate -- I of course have my opinion on that issue but I fully realize it's a debatable point.

 

What I don't think is really an opinion (though it obviously is) is whether or not McCoy is a special player. And while I understand the argument about not wasting resources on a devalued RB position when the league is so clearly a passing league, I believe that when it comes to special players you make an exception. Before the trade, the Bills were starved for stars on the offensive side of the ball. So when one gets offered via trade, and all you have to give up is a young (but talented) LB who did not even see the field the year prior, you must make that deal. Kiko is a good LB with upside, but he's not a star player like McCoy.

 

The contract, as stated above, is debatable but considering the very real possibility McCoy would have held out/not reported/caused a PR nightmare for the team heading into a season with Rex at the helm and in front of a mic on a daily basis at camp... I think it was the price of doing business.

 

In terms of building a winning roster, I believe you cannot win in the NFL without at least six star players on your roster, specifically star play makers. Three on offense, three on defense. Everyone wants a star QB of course, and that is the priority, but additionally you need two star play makers for him to get the ball to. Even though we disagree on Sammy, he is an elite play maker. Bringing in McCoy gave the Bills their second star on offense -- and since you can't win without stars the move made complete sense at the time (and still does).

 

Shady alone isn't going to win a team a title. We all can agree on that I think. That's never been my argument and I doubt Whaley would argue it either. In order to turn this thing around you still need to address the QB spot and the three star playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. But I can't fault Whaley for bringing McCoy in or extending his contract. He's one of those players for whom you make that kind of exception.

 

 

I'm not making the assumption that they would have the same impact.

 

It's actually happening that way though.

 

Which goes back to my point about overbuilding one area of the team at the expense of others.

 

In this offense, the impact of the 4 elements.... play design......the QB.....the blocking.....and the RB........RB has effectively proven to be the least important variable of the four.

 

If this were a baseball discussion it would be about "wins above replacement".

 

What's Shady's WAR if the spread between his production and his high carry subs is actually a net negative?

 

This is why we disagree. You think stats tell the whole picture and ignore what your eyes tell you.

 

Shady makes the defense adjust to him, they don't have to adjust for TD Mike or Karlos.

 

There's a value to that which cannot easily be appreciated when relying solely on stats.

 

 

1) McCoy isn't consistent......he was exceptional in 2013.....hovered around league average ypc in 2014 and 2015......and now he's a full yard per carry higher(which just so happens to be what the other two RB's have averaged).

 

 

That's laughably false. McCoy has consistently been an impact player since his second year in the league -- something stats won't show. Saying he's not consistent is, again, admitting you haven't watched him play much.

 

2014 he was sidelined by Chip, 2015 he was derailed by a hammy and a change in location. If you look at just his stats it's easy to dismiss his impact on the games themselves. If you actually watched him play in 2014 (and 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 et al) you'd understand why this kind of position is laughable.

 

Stats never tell the whole story.

[Doc]

Yes, and both those dudes put up comparable production in this run game without Shady's pedigree or paycheck.

 

Yep. As backups.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

He knows McCoy won't be cut before the 2018 season, that much is certain.

 

Otherwise he wouldn't have backed out of our friendly bet. Twice.

 

 

I'm not a guy who thinks the Bills can't do any wrong. I'm also not above criticizing the front offices for bad moves. Back under my original screen name I had many, many, MANY disagreements with the previous regimes. I've had a few with Whaley as well but I've been more of a fan of him than I have been a critic because I think he understands how to build a team in the modern NFL. He's had misses, and I get why people criticize him though I think it's largely unfair. And I completely agree that Shady's contract is a valid point to debate -- I of course have my opinion on that issue but I fully realize it's a debatable point.

 

What I don't think is really an opinion (though it obviously is) is whether or not McCoy is a special player. And while I understand the argument about not wasting resources on a devalued RB position when the league is so clearly a passing league, I believe that when it comes to special players you make an exception. Before the trade, the Bills were starved for stars on the offensive side of the ball. So when one gets offered via trade, and all you have to give up is a young (but talented) LB who did not even see the field the year prior, you must make that deal. Kiko is a good LB with upside, but he's not a star player like McCoy.

 

The contract, as stated above, is debatable but considering the very real possibility McCoy would have held out/not reported/caused a PR nightmare for the team heading into a season with Rex at the helm and in front of a mic on a daily basis at camp... I think it was the price of doing business.

 

In terms of building a winning roster, I believe you cannot win in the NFL without at least six star players on your roster, specifically star play makers. Three on offense, three on defense. Everyone wants a star QB of course, and that is the priority, but additionally you need two star play makers for him to get the ball to. Even though we disagree on Sammy, he is an elite play maker. Bringing in McCoy gave the Bills their second star on offense -- and since you can't win without stars the move made complete sense at the time (and still does).

 

Shady alone isn't going to win a team a title. We all can agree on that I think. That's never been my argument and I doubt Whaley would argue it either. In order to turn this thing around you still need to address the QB spot and the three star playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. But I can't fault Whaley for bringing McCoy in or extending his contract. He's one of those players for whom you make that kind of exception.

 

 

This is why we disagree. You think stats tell the whole picture and ignore what your eyes tell you.

 

Shady makes the defense adjust to him, they don't have to adjust for TD Mike or Karlos.

 

There's a value to that which cannot easily be appreciated when relying solely on stats.

 

 

That's laughably false. McCoy has consistently been an impact player since his second year in the league -- something stats won't show. Saying he's not consistent is, again, admitting you haven't watched him play much.

 

2014 he was sidelined by Chip, 2015 he was derailed by a hammy and a change in location. If you look at just his stats it's easy to dismiss his impact on the games themselves. If you actually watched him play in 2014 (and 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 et al) you'd understand why this kind of position is laughable.

 

Stats never tell the whole story.

 

1) McCoy's unique style is a much better value in an otherwise weaker run system.......this is where the idea of his WAR in this offense comes into play.

 

In this well designed, well blocked rush offense his freestyle approach gives and it takes away.

 

The reason TD Mike and Karlos out produced him last year was simply because they were following Roman's script. Nothing else. Not because of less carries or any other fictional, unsupported reason.

 

Some of McCoy's best plays happen after poor decisions and he has more than his share of runs for a loss......where a back like MG just keeps making disciplined decisions...running thru well blocked, open areas.....and subsequently there is very little difference in their total production.

 

So be honest......have you noticed that McCoy is not taking anywhere near as many runs to the sidelines this season?

 

In the offseason he said he was going to make those plays in 2016 that he left on the field in 2015.

 

I commended him for admitting things that people on TSW......yourself included........were unwilling to admit were limiting his production.

 

I literally said there was no reason he shouldn't be getting 5.5ypc and scoring TD's in this system...........and now he's putting up 5.5ypc and scoring TD's.

 

2) it's good to see you actually arguing points for the first time since about 1 month into this discussion......that's not sarcasm, I'm serious......but you can't say he's been consistent and you can't just dismiss his injuries.

 

He blamed both 2014 and 2015 on injuries. He didn't blame it on Chip. Chip fed him over 300 carries in 2014. He had the NFL's lowest yards per touch in 2014.....he just wasn't making plays anywhere near his career year of 2013. All Kelly did to him was take away short yardage and goal line. He's poor in those situations. Even now.....he missed an easy TD on the opening drive of the Oakland game and subsequently Lynn took him out near the goal line for the rest of the game.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

1) McCoy's unique style is a much better value in an otherwise weaker run system.......this is where the idea of his WAR in this offense comes into play.

 

In this well designed, well blocked rush offense his freestyle approach gives and it takes away.

 

The reason TD Mike and Karlos out produced him last year was simply because they were following Roman's script. Nothing else. Not because of less carries or any other fictional, unsupported reason.

 

Some of McCoy's best plays happen after poor decisions and he has more than his share of runs for a loss......where a back like MG just keeps making disciplined decisions...running thru well blocked, open areas.....and subsequently there is very little difference in their total production.

 

 

None of that addresses the point I've been making.

 

You're giving absolutely zero value to the strategic impact McCoy's mere presence adds to his offense, regardless of scheme, in your analysis. That's why looking at stats in a vacuum while trying to make the case that McCoy's no longer elite (you're original position) or has been inconsistent in his career (your latest shifting of the goal posts) is a fool's errand. It just will never give you the full picture.

 

You gotta watch the games.

 

 

So be honest......have you noticed that McCoy is not taking anywhere near as many runs to the sidelines this season?

 

In the offseason he said he was going to make those plays in 2016 that he left on the field in 2015.

 

I commended him for admitting things that people on TSW......yourself included........were unwilling to admit were limiting his production.

 

I literally said there was no reason he shouldn't be getting 5.5ypc and scoring TD's in this system...........and now he's putting up 5.5ypc and scoring TD's.

 

I never once took the position that he couldn't improve on what he was doing last year. I readily admitted that it was a disappointing year for him. I predicted he'd have 2k yards from scrimmage in the Bold Prediction thread that year, clearly his 2015 wasn't up to my expectations.

 

The only position I've ever been "arguing" with you is whether or not he's still an elite back. At the time of the trade I said he was, you disagreed.

 

You were wrong. I think that's pretty evident by now.

 

You can keep on reinventing the argument all you want, but it's just more of this:

 

 

2) it's good to see you actually arguing points for the first time since about 1 month into this discussion......that's not sarcasm, I'm serious......but you can't say he's been consistent and you can't just dismiss his injuries.

 

He blamed both 2014 and 2015 on injuries. He didn't blame it on Chip. Chip fed him over 300 carries in 2014. He had the NFL's lowest yards per touch in 2014.....he just wasn't making plays anywhere near his career year of 2013. All Kelly did to him was take away short yardage and goal line. He's poor in those situations. Even now.....he missed an easy TD on the opening drive of the Oakland game and subsequently Lynn took him out near the goal line for the rest of the game.

 

Chip completely changed the way he used McCoy from 2013 to 2014. He did much more than take him out of goal line packages... something that can clearly be seen if you watch the games. Regardless of how McCoy spun it at the time (he was still attempting to be loyal to the Eagles remember), the evidence is clear that Kelly had a bigger impact than anything else on his deflated '14 numbers.

 

But just because his numbers were down that didn't diminish the impact he had that season on each and every game. Which is why the charge that he's inconsistent is only defensible if you only look at the raw numbers. He's consistently been an impact player who demands defenses scheme differently when they game plan. That has strategic value you're underselling. I know you'll say that sounds too nebulous to be of any use in terms of analyzing a guy when you're building a roster but it doesn't make it any less true.

 

What McCoy is doing this year is no different than he was doing in Philly through multiple coaching staffs and systems. Everyone by now has seen how hard he plays. That's not new, it's how he's always played. He is just one of those players who has that extra bit of pixie dust which separates the greats from the merely excellents.

[GunnerBill]

Oh and just to add.... whatever the rights and wrongs of McCoy that Chip Kelly is an ego maniac moron out of his depth in the NFL is now pretty close to being established fact.

[Bill from NYC]

Even though we disagree on Sammy, he is an elite play maker. Bringing in McCoy gave the Bills their second star on offense -- and since you can't win without stars the move made complete sense at the time (and still does).

We do not disagree wrt his ability. Sammy has the potential to be truly great, and I am well aware of and happy about this.

But where we can agree to disagree is wrt the trade. 2 first rounders and a fourth in a draft chock full of wide receivers was (imo of course) a very dumb move and symptomatic of a major flaw in Whaley's game. He can't wait to give away our cap space and draft picks and doing so is NOT resulting in wins. To me it is just that simple.

 

As a huge Alabama Fan I have seen every game in which Dareus has appeared. I follow The Tide closely and there are enough great players on that team right now to completely rebuild an NFL defense in 2 years. When we drafted Gilmore, I wanted Hightower but I digress.

My point is that despite the above, Marcel's recent contract was a little hard to swallow, no? Is any DT worth that much these days? It's a passing league and pass rushers are much more important now. WAY more. Couldn't this be another example of Whaley tossing money away and not getting wins in return?

Well imo, the same applies to McCoy's contract. It has little to do with his ability. He is a gifted runner to say the least. I am just sick of the same idiots (Brandon, Whaley an the Ryans) making the same idiotic moves and not winning football games.

That's all.

[GunnerBill]

I think just on Dareus if you are going to use him as a space eating nose tackle then there is no way he is worth that contract. If you are paying an interior penetrating pass rusher (which is what he was under Pettine and and Schwartz) then those guys are worth paying because the fastest way of applying pressure in this ball out quick type era of offense is up the middle. I think they have gone back to Dareus rushing a bit more in the games he has played so far this year. If you use him that was he is worth the money, as a DT space eater to clog up running lanes you are right nobody is worth that.

 

EDIT: Whilst you know Bill I am bigger Whaley fan than you that disconnect between the way we have paid Dareus and the way the coaches have used him is concerning.

Edited December 10, 2016 by GunnerBill

[Doc]

 

None of that addresses the point I've been making.

 

You're giving absolutely zero value to the strategic impact McCoy's mere presence adds to his offense, regardless of scheme, in your analysis. That's why looking at stats in a vacuum while trying to make the case that McCoy's no longer elite (you're original position) or has been inconsistent in his career (your latest shifting of the goal posts) is a fool's errand. It just will never give you the full picture.

 

You gotta watch the games.

 

 

I never once took the position that he couldn't improve on what he was doing last year. I readily admitted that it was a disappointing year for him. I predicted he'd have 2k yards from scrimmage in the Bold Prediction thread that year, clearly his 2015 wasn't up to my expectations.

 

The only position I've ever been "arguing" with you is whether or not he's still an elite back. At the time of the trade I said he was, you disagreed.

 

You were wrong. I think that's pretty evident by now.

 

You can keep on reinventing the argument all you want, but it's just more of this:

 

 

Chip completely changed the way he used McCoy from 2013 to 2014. He did much more than take him out of goal line packages... something that can clearly be seen if you watch the games. Regardless of how McCoy spun it at the time (he was still attempting to be loyal to the Eagles remember), the evidence is clear that Kelly had a bigger impact than anything else on his deflated '14 numbers.

 

But just because his numbers were down that didn't diminish the impact he had that season on each and every game. Which is why the charge that he's inconsistent is only defensible if you only look at the raw numbers. He's consistently been an impact player who demands defenses scheme differently when they game plan. That has strategic value you're underselling. I know you'll say that sounds too nebulous to be of any use in terms of analyzing a guy when you're building a roster but it doesn't make it any less true.

 

What McCoy is doing this year is no different than he was doing in Philly through multiple coaching staffs and systems. Everyone by now has seen how hard he plays. That's not new, it's how he's always played. He is just one of those players who has that extra bit of pixie dust which separates the greats from the merely excellents.

 

No one would be that dumb. Considering he injured his hamstring prior to the season and played on it at less than 100% all season long.

[BADOLBILZ]

Oh and just to add.... whatever the rights and wrongs of McCoy that Chip Kelly is an ego maniac moron out of his depth in the NFL is now pretty close to being established fact.

 

Now THAT is the definition of irrelevant.

 

Are you also of the belief like Deranged that Chip Kelly changed what McCoy was doing in 2014 from what he had him do in 2013....when he, btw put McCoy in position for his best year to date?

 

How so?

 

Deranged Rhino claims this to be an absolutely obvious truth........the very reason for Shady having the NFL's lowest yards per touch in 2014.........but OF COURSE..... in no way points out HOW Kelly changed how he used him.

 

Kelly didn't bring Shady's production down.

 

The league caught up to Kelly's offense. The first year was an anomaly.

[BADOLBILZ]

I think just on Dareus if you are going to use him as a space eating nose tackle then there is no way he is worth that contract. If you are paying an interior penetrating pass rusher (which is what he was under Pettine and and Schwartz) then those guys are worth paying because the fastest way of applying pressure in this ball out quick type era of offense is up the middle. I think they have gone back to Dareus rushing a bit more in the games he has played so far this year. If you use him that was he is worth the money, as a DT space eater to clog up running lanes you are right nobody is worth that.

 

EDIT: Whilst you know Bill I am bigger Whaley fan than you that disconnect between the way we have paid Dareus and the way the coaches have used him is concerning.

 

I brought Dareus into the discussion to illustrate my point wrt the value of Shady McCoy to the Buffalo Bills.

 

Dareus is probably the leagues BEST NT. And yet.......an incredibly poor value to the team even if he plays every snap and at his best at NT.....because his impact at NT even at his best is worth about 1/4 of what he is being paid.

 

McCoy is one of the best backs in the league this year......and yet players that make a fraction of what he does literally have the same impact.

 

This isn't subjective......Karlos and MG have produced more ypc and scored A LOT more TD's in a carry volume that is not so small to dismiss..........as you did, calling it irrelevant.

 

To me, the catalyst of the Bills run offense is Tyrod Taylor.

 

HE makes defenses tentative......which helps lineman to get into their blocks.

 

When he is on the field the past two seasons without McCoy......the Bills RB's run for 5.5 ypc and score TD's at a higher %.

 

So the argument that SHADY is who changes defenses......it does not hold water.

 

The bottom line is........time will tell.

 

I am interested in what you expect production-wise the next two seasons to justify that $8.25M per year for a position teams usually don't pay.

[Deranged Rhino]

We do not disagree wrt his ability. Sammy has the potential to be truly great, and I am well aware of and happy about this.

But where we can agree to disagree is wrt the trade. 2 first rounders and a fourth in a draft chock full of wide receivers was (imo of course) a very dumb move and symptomatic of a major flaw in Whaley's game. He can't wait to give away our cap space and draft picks and doing so is NOT resulting in wins. To me it is just that simple.

 

As a huge Alabama Fan I have seen every game in which Dareus has appeared. I follow The Tide closely and there are enough great players on that team right now to completely rebuild an NFL defense in 2 years. When we drafted Gilmore, I wanted Hightower but I digress.

My point is that despite the above, Marcel's recent contract was a little hard to swallow, no? Is any DT worth that much these days? It's a passing league and pass rushers are much more important now. WAY more. Couldn't this be another example of Whaley tossing money away and not getting wins in return?

Well imo, the same applies to McCoy's contract. It has little to do with his ability. He is a gifted runner to say the least. I am just sick of the same idiots (Brandon, Whaley an the Ryans) making the same idiotic moves and not winning football games.

That's all.

 

Hey, I hear you.

 

 

 

Now THAT is the definition of irrelevant.

 

Are you also of the belief like Deranged that Chip Kelly changed what McCoy was doing in 2014 from what he had him do in 2013....when he, btw put McCoy in position for his best year to date?

 

How so?

 

Deranged Rhino claims this to be an absolutely obvious truth........the very reason for Shady having the NFL's lowest yards per touch in 2014.........but OF COURSE..... in no way points out HOW Kelly changed how he used him.

 

Kelly didn't bring Shady's production down.

 

The league caught up to Kelly's offense. The first year was an anomaly.

 

How many Eagles games did you watch in '13 and '14? They're still available on gamepass. Go watch them and you'll see.

 

The bolded played a part, without question. Nothing happens in a vacuum in the NFL. But it also only strengthens what I'm saying: Kelly was the reason for McCoy's down '14 more than any other factor. That his scheme was figured out certainly played a part -- and that's on Chip.

 

What I'm talking about though is Kelly's substitution patterns. That's the biggest coaching change he made with McCoy and the one that's evident beyond the point of being an opinion if you watch the games. In '13 he rarely, if ever, pulled Shady from the game in the middle of a drive. Shady is the type of back who has a bunch of negative plays (as you've rightly pointed out) and those end up setting up his big poppers. In '14 Kelly began substituting McCoy at odd times, mid-drive, that would completely ruin his ability to get a feel for the game.

 

Kelly never let McCoy get comfortable in '14 and it was obvious to the point where even the worst color commentators for their games would point it out.

 

It's hilarious still that you're so dug in on this position when you so clearly never watched the actual games. It helps to wait until you've done so before taking absolute position

 

 

To me, the catalyst of the Bills run offense is Tyrod Taylor.

 

HE makes defenses tentative......which helps lineman to get into their blocks.

 

When he is on the field the past two seasons without McCoy......the Bills RB's run for 5.5 ypc and score TD's at a higher %.

 

So the argument that SHADY is who changes defenses......it does not hold water.

 

 

Once again, you're arguing something I never said. Just more shifting of the goal posts because you have to be right.

 

No one is saying Taylor doesn't have an impact on how the defenses scheme.

 

But go ahead and tell any NFL coach or player that McCoy isn't the catalyst of the Bills ground game and see what happens. You'll get laughed out of the room.

[Beef Jerky]

McCoy another good player that won't ever get to the playoffs as a Bill.

[Fan in Chicago]

We do not disagree wrt his ability. Sammy has the potential to be truly great, and I am well aware of and happy about this.

But where we can agree to disagree is wrt the trade. 2 first rounders and a fourth in a draft chock full of wide receivers was (imo of course) a very dumb move and symptomatic of a major flaw in Whaley's game. He can't wait to give away our cap space and draft picks and doing so is NOT resulting in wins. To me it is just that simple.

 

 

My point is that despite the above, Marcel's recent contract was a little hard to swallow, no? Is any DT worth that much these days? It's a passing league and pass rushers are much more important now. WAY more. Couldn't this be another example of Whaley tossing money away and not getting wins in return?

Well imo, the same applies to McCoy's contract. It has little to do with his ability. He is a gifted runner to say the least. I am just sick of the same idiots (Brandon, Whaley an the Ryans) making the same idiotic moves and not winning football games.

That's all.

 

What you are alluding to is the concept of building a team versus making maketing splashes to fill seats. I do think a team needs playmakers and I also think that there are a few positions which you 'overpay' for. QB, WR, CB, DE come to mind with perhaps the occasional Mack, Von Miller. Whaley has let go players before there have been viable replacements. Dareus is a monster when his head is screwed on right. Its debatable where we should have commited premium dollars to that position. With the team building strategy that is in place (few high paid players with a bunch of castoffs), this made sense but the strategy itself was flawed. Thius thread is a focus on McCoy but what about Clay ? He has been a terrible return on investment,

Then there is the drafting strategy. Again, falling in love with players like Spiller (not Whaley I know) and Watkins has been the downside of this franchise over the past several years.

The one place you and I differ is the value of CBs. As you noted, this is a passing league but that also implies needing strong corners who can play on an island. I am not anti-Gilmore as you were. I think we need a strong DB backfield along with pass rushers.

 

To top it all, we have a moronic HC who takes everything and makes it worse. This falls on Brandon and the Pegulas.

 

My tirade is all over the place and probably a result of another lost season where the organization will learn nothing. As always, expect some blockbuster moves to generate fake excitement.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Fan in Chicago

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Hey, I hear you.

 

 

 

How many Eagles games did you watch in '13 and '14? They're still available on gamepass. Go watch them and you'll see.

 

The bolded played a part, without question. Nothing happens in a vacuum in the NFL. But it also only strengthens what I'm saying: Kelly was the reason for McCoy's down '14 more than any other factor. That his scheme was figured out certainly played a part -- and that's on Chip.

 

What I'm talking about though is Kelly's substitution patterns. That's the biggest coaching change he made with McCoy and the one that's evident beyond the point of being an opinion if you watch the games. In '13 he rarely, if ever, pulled Shady from the game in the middle of a drive. Shady is the type of back who has a bunch of negative plays (as you've rightly pointed out) and those end up setting up his big poppers. In '14 Kelly began substituting McCoy at odd times, mid-drive, that would completely ruin his ability to get a feel for the game.

 

Kelly never let McCoy get comfortable in '14 and it was obvious to the point where even the worst color commentators for their games would point it out.

 

It's hilarious still that you're so dug in on this position when you so clearly never watched the actual games. It helps to wait until you've done so before taking absolute position

 

 

 

 

 

McCoy had 314 carries in 2013 and 312 carries in 2014. That's not only the definition of an even workload but a HUGE volume at that. Not comfy? Really?

 

I watched plenty of Shady's games under Chip Kelly in both seasons.....and not all after the fact....I was fascinated with his offense and the potential application for a player like EJ Manuel....that was specifically how I knew that to expect last season.

 

What I saw was a warranted lack of faith in him in short yardage. That's it.

 

You can't blame less production per play....his big drop in ypc in particular...... on not being used in situations where you are looking to gain 1-2 yards.

 

The Bills do the same thing. They often sub Gillislee in mid-drive in all areas of the field. But almost always in short yardage and near the goal line. They don't just alternate drives. Does MG have a b*tch because he has to knock out all the 2 yarders for Shady?

 

It's just a made up excuse to explain away the fact that you don't actually have a football take on the matter.

 

Your actual take is that he is a playmaker and nothing else matters.

 

But how you apply your limited allotment of chips does matter, as I illustrated in the Dareus example.

[NoSaint]

 

None of that addresses the point I've been making.

 

You're giving absolutely zero value to the strategic impact McCoy's mere presence adds to his offense, regardless of scheme, in your analysis. That's why looking at stats in a vacuum while trying to make the case that McCoy's no longer elite (you're original position) or has been inconsistent in his career (your latest shifting of the goal posts) is a fool's errand. It just will never give you the full picture.

 

You gotta watch the games.

 

 

I never once took the position that he couldn't improve on what he was doing last year. I readily admitted that it was a disappointing year for him. I predicted he'd have 2k yards from scrimmage in the Bold Prediction thread that year, clearly his 2015 wasn't up to my expectations.

 

The only position I've ever been "arguing" with you is whether or not he's still an elite back. At the time of the trade I said he was, you disagreed.

 

You were wrong. I think that's pretty evident by now.

 

You can keep on reinventing the argument all you want, but it's just more of this

 

 

Chip completely changed the way he used McCoy from 2013 to 2014. He did much more than take him out of goal line packages... something that can clearly be seen if you watch the games. Regardless of how McCoy spun it at the time (he was still attempting to be loyal to the Eagles remember), the evidence is clear that Kelly had a bigger impact than anything else on his deflated '14 numbers.

 

But just because his numbers were down that didn't diminish the impact he had that season on each and every game. Which is why the charge that he's inconsistent is only defensible if you only look at the raw numbers. He's consistently been an impact player who demands defenses scheme differently when they game plan. That has strategic value you're underselling. I know you'll say that sounds too nebulous to be of any use in terms of analyzing a guy when you're building a roster but it doesn't make it any less true.

 

What McCoy is doing this year is no different than he was doing in Philly through multiple coaching staffs and systems. Everyone by now has seen how hard he plays. That's not new, it's how he's always played. He is just one of those players who has that extra bit of pixie dust which separates the greats from the merely excellents.

Id be curious some normalized stats for the rest of the offense with him on and off the first field. Not expecting anyone here to create these though

[BADOLBILZ]

Id be curious some normalized stats for the rest of the offense with him on and off the first field. Not expecting anyone here to create these though

 

 

Do you remember when the argument was made that the game that Karlos started versus the Giants.....and was concussed so seriously he missed the next 4 games......was the excuse that he couldn't produce in the absence of Shady?

 

Or that the finale against the Jets.....vs a top run D that stacked the box to stop Gillislee, leaving themselves vulnerable to Tyrod/Watkins.......was evidence that MG couldn't produce without Shady?

 

All the while nobody making note of Shady's poor games......including his awful game in Washington.

 

It's hard for fans of Shady's stardom to look at the situation objectively.

 

111 carries between MG and Karlos is scoffed at.........while McCoy himself only has 174 this season.

 

McCoy missed one game this year........home versus NE.....and MG ran 12 times for 85 yards.....a 7.1 ypc average.

 

In itself......too small of a sample size.

 

But last year they were at their best on the ground in the last 10 quarters of the season WITHOUT the services of Shady.

 

I'm not saying Shady isn't a tremendous running back.........I'm saying it's a devalued position and it was a poor decision to waste the money there instead of.........on, SAY.......Brandon Marshall.

 

A real need that could provide an actual, tangibly huge boost in production.

 

You use free agency/trades to fill your needs.

 

The problem with extending Shady for 5 years is that there were a ton of factors that virtually assured it would not be worth it......at a position where you don't need to gamble.

 

Like him, love him or hate him it's all still true.

 

If Tyrod continues to circle the drain and isn't here next season that offseason is an epic/costly bust, IMO.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Do you remember when the argument was made that the game that Karlos started versus the Giants.....and was concussed so seriously he missed the next 4 games......was the excuse that he couldn't produce in the absence of Shady?

 

Or that the finale against the Jets.....vs a top run D that stacked the box to stop Gillislee, leaving themselves vulnerable to Tyrod/Watkins.......was evidence that MG couldn't produce without Shady?

 

All the while nobody making note of Shady's poor games......including his awful game in Washington.

 

It's hard for fans of Shady's stardom to look at the situation objectively.

 

111 carries between MG and Karlos is scoffed at.........while McCoy himself only has 174 this season.

 

McCoy missed one game this year........home versus NE.....and MG ran 12 times for 85 yards.....a 7.1 ypc average.

 

In itself......too small of a sample size.

 

But last year they were at their best on the ground in the last 10 quarters of the season WITHOUT the services of Shady.

 

I'm not saying Shady isn't a tremendous running back.........I'm saying it's a devalued position and it was a poor decision to waste the money there instead of.........on, SAY.......Brandon Marshall.

 

A real need that could provide an actual, tangibly huge boost in production.

 

You use free agency/trades to fill your needs.

 

The problem with extending Shady for 5 years is that there were a ton of factors that virtually assured it would not be worth it......at a position where you don't need to gamble.

 

Like him, love him or hate him it's all still true.

 

If Tyrod continues to circle the drain and isn't here next season that offseason is an epic/costly bust, IMO.

I get the argument and have waffled back and forth a little but generally lean a little closer to you than most here despite his stat line.

 

That said when he's arguing the whole defense has to adjust for shady (I think there's some truth) I'd be curious to see what the stats look like on non running plays with each on the field to give some feedback on that otherwise abstract claim.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

It's just a made up excuse to explain away the fact that you don't actually have a football take on the matter.

 

Your actual take is that he is a playmaker and nothing else matters.

 

 

See, proof you're just an asshat. I have never argued the bolded. You just make stuff up because you're unable to admit you were wrong.

 

My football take, which you disagreed with at the time of the trade, was that Shady is elite.

 

You disagreed.

 

You were wrong.

 

Everything else you're arguing is nonsense to avoid having to cop to being wrong. And when I try to have a discussion on actual football points you go back to inventing positions I never held.

Edited December 11, 2016 by Deranged Rhino

[It's in My Blood]

Shady will make the ProBowl for the second consecutive season as a Bill. He's an absolute stud.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

See, proof you're just an asshat. I have never argued the bolded. You just make stuff up because you're unable to admit you were wrong.

 

My football take, which you disagreed with at the time of the trade, was that Shady is elite.

 

You disagreed.

 

You were wrong.

 

Everything else you're arguing is nonsense to avoid having to cop to being wrong. And when I try to have a discussion on actual football points you go back to inventing positions I never held.

 

Elite is your term.

 

I don't speak of RB's in that term.......it's a QB term that implies that the difference between a good one and an elite one is a chasm.

 

And it's not.

 

Shady, like many RB's in a league where the run has been de-emphasized.......has had up years and down years.

 

Prior to this season, Shady had run for just over league average YPC in 3 of the prior 4 seasons............the one year being the Chip Kelly year-one anomaly.

 

When an "elite" QB starts putting in league average per play production in 3 seasons out of 4 then maybe we can redefine the term to fit Shady.

 

I said NUMEROUS times last year that Shady should be running for 5.5 ypc in this offense and was missing the inside options that MG and Karlos were taking to the house........if MG and Karlos can do it, Shady could too........it's the run and shoot of run based offenses and Tyrod is the Warren Moon equivalent.......a QB who can rival his lead RB for rushing TD's.

 

And this year Shady is doing it.........he's taking the inside runs and scoring those TD's......I think Lynn has massaged the system to funnel him inside more but it's clear as day that he's much more in tune with the system..........that's not wrong.........that's Shady answering the bell and doing what he should in this offense. That was anything but a given after his tumultuous, often petulant 2015.

 

It sucks that the bar is set so high that he has to put up pinball numbers just to reach the point where he is at or near replacement level but that's just the way this offense rolls.

 

I can give him props. But last year happened too and the next 3 years are a mystery.

 

There is no decision in this argument.......and I'm not even sure your side of shout down specialists even feels that it's going to end well.

 

As I said......there is a reason why after a full bad season that you guys were trying to take a victory lap just half way into the second season.........and then VANISHED when his hammy got sore.

 

That spoke volumes.

 

As for the bet..........I showed you where the error was.......I was off of TSW for approximately 3 weeks, for the most part dealing with estate issues with the widow of my partner in CA who had passed very unexpectedly........when I got back I asked you if the bet was on and you assumed I was giving you a pass if McCoy got injured. I had told you in no uncertain terms before I left that that wasn't happening. It would have been no fun. So I offered to raise the stakes......you didn't want to do it......you threw a tantrum actually and have been pretty much an assh*le about it since.

 

I am all for jabbing people a little for being wrong but I really don't see where me LIKELY be wrong about one aspect.......while startling right about so many others........justifies all the trolling. I mean I bust The Big Cat's balls for his heat maps but I don't go to the lengths and post after post of trolling. Some do not appreciate the way I present points so I don't mind some negative feedback but my takes are usually quite on point.......this one isn't much different.