billsfan1959 Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) Again, I'm going based on what he has said. I can conclude (if I choose, based on what we do know) that he most likely did not seek out rehab when he announced he actually was entering rehab. If his problem is ADHD (and I am not commenting on that at all--I know what I'm talking about), then I think this whole rehab thing was a PR stunt. As for "we will only know based on how he conducts himself from this point forward", don't we already know from his two arrests and suspension only 2 years ago? Didn';t he say these same things 2 years ago? As to the first part of your post: We do not know the specifics, nor are we entitled to them. As such, any conclusions drawn from them are mere speculation. You are welcome to do so. As for me, I don't believe there's much usefulness in that. As to the second part of your post: The answer is "no," we don't already know. If it were as simple as that, then we would have to write off anyone in life that has made serious mistakes. Human behavior is complex and risk assessment is a very subjective process. If you want to write him off at this point, feel free it is entirely within your right. I am just not ready to do so yet. Edited October 7, 2016 by billsfan1959
MDH Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 With only one strike remaining nobody is picking up that contact via trade. Let the guy play and if he messes up again and gets suspended for a year you let him go.
BillsVet Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 His contract makes him all but un-tradeable. It should be disconcerting to ownership that the GM handed out the largest contract in team history to a guy who doesn't have his stuff together off the field. That said, Marcell Dareus has experienced personal tragedies far beyond what most people ever do. It sounds like his problems go deeper than ADHD.
abc Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 1) Why do you think another GM would offer a first round pick? If random fans think Dareus is now a "risky business" proposition, why would you believe other GMs would be blind to that chance? 2) What cap space do you think the Bills open up by cutting or trading Dareus? Hint: here's his contract. The Bills eat $44.65M in dead cap if they cut him, and $27M in dead cap if they trade him, this year. Next year, they eat $30.35M in dead cap if they cut him, and $20.6M in dead cap if they trade him. $20.6M or $27M is a lot of dead cap money to eat for a late 1st round pick that historically, will have something like a 50% chance of being a solid contributor and maybe <25% chance of being a pro-bowler. OTOH, if the Bills keep him and he gets nailed again and is gone for a year, Dareus will have to repay his amortized signing bonus for that year and the Bills won't have to pay him; in addition, his contract probably has language that allows the Bills to cut him and recoup at least part of the signing bonus amortized to future years if that happens (then again, this is the Bills business office we're talking about so maybe it doesn't). In other words, cutting or trading Dareus is an option that makes no business sense and actually costs the Bills significant cap money and cap flexibility. Whereas keeping him is an option that allows the Bills to recoup at least 1 years worth of signing bonus and salary if he does smoke again and gets suspended for a year, and possibly more depending upon specifics in his contract. Your points about the lack of financial flexibility are compelling if accurate. I hadn't actually analyzed the contract and played out the scenarios and I guess I need to do that to post on this board. So although the point is moot I absolutely think there are GM's who would give up a 1st rounder for a guy like Dareus. In a league where Tim Tebow is taken in the first round, a full slate of draft picks are traded for Ricky Williams, and a GM trades up a couple of spots by giving up his #1 the following year to take a WR in the deepest WR draft perhaps in history, I think there is always a decent shot at finding a greater fool.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 not too pick nits. But isn't his next suspension 10 games. Not a season? The NFL's substance abuse policy makes my head hurt almost as badly as Practice Squad Eligibility rules. But it sounds as though you're right if indeed it's weed that he's suspended for and not something else. In some ways that's worse for the Bills. Your points about the lack of financial flexibility are compelling if accurate. I hadn't actually analyzed the contract and played out the scenarios and I guess I need to do that to post on this board. So although the point is moot I absolutely think there are GM's who would give up a 1st rounder for a guy like Dareus. In a league where Tim Tebow is taken in the first round, a full slate of draft picks are traded for Ricky Williams, and a GM trades up a couple of spots by giving up his #1 the following year to take a WR in the deepest WR draft perhaps in history, I think there is always a decent shot at finding a greater fool. Well, not to post on this board in general, but if you want to make points about salary cap issues, then yeah. But to your last example - since it was our GM that did that, aren't you arguing he IS the greater fool?
Just in Atlanta Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Lol. The TSA couldn't run a laundromat. If you don't think we all give off non verbal clues, I don't know what to say. The ADD thing is BS. He may have it but the story is pure spin. Oh, Brother. The TSA Isn't Good at Reading Body Language And Neither Are You
elroy16 Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) The conclusions that people are coming to while knowing almost nothing about the Dareus' situation are astounding. Maybe he said he was going to go to rehab before he consulted with anyone because he thought that was the best course of action. After consulting with some doctors and people close to him they came to the conclusion that closer monitoring while continuing to train, etc would work better for him during this time. Is that more likely or is it more likely that the Bills and Dareus purposely made the rehab stuff up to make themselves look good (Or whatever reason you guys are going with right now)? He was giggling during the press conference, HE'S STILL HIGH! Edited October 7, 2016 by elroy16
26CornerBlitz Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 The conclusions that people are coming to while knowing almost nothing about the Dareus' situation are astounding. Maybe he said he was going to go to rehab before he consulted with anyone because he thought that was the best course of action. After consulting with some doctors and people close to him they came to the conclusion that closer monitoring while continuing to train, etc would work better for him during this time. Is that more likely or is it more likely that the Bills and Dareus purposely made the rehab stuff up to make themselves look good (Or whatever reason you guys are going with right now)? He was giggling during the press conference, HE'S STILL HIGH! On TSW? Not really.
liverpoolkev Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 I would rather move on from assanine post like these
Mr. WEO Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 The conclusions that people are coming to while knowing almost nothing about the Dareus' situation are astounding. Maybe he said he was going to go to rehab before he consulted with anyone because he thought that was the best course of action. After consulting with some doctors and people close to him they came to the conclusion that closer monitoring while continuing to train, etc would work better for him during this time. Is that more likely or is it more likely that the Bills and Dareus purposely made the rehab stuff up to make themselves look good (Or whatever reason you guys are going with right now)? He was giggling during the press conference, HE'S STILL HIGH! Yeah, maybe. Or maybe he just hung out with Bruce Smith and saw his therapist now and then and showed up to OBD not in football playing shape-----just like he did 2 years ago. If this guy didn't have the exact same history only 2 years ago, you scenario might make sense. But you can only believe what you do if you completely ignore or pretend his issues in 2014 never happened.
dulles Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 I don't think that will be an option for them. Not sure anyone will trade a high pick for him. Before people jump on Tipster and call him a troll though or start quoting Sully at him... I was similarly worried by his presser. I am not sure he came across as at all contrite. Indeed he came across as an arrogant jerk. Now I hope that is just because he is clearly uncomfortable facing the media but if the team has any concerns internally about whether he has really moved on then they should be open minded about his future. EDIT: and I love him as a player. Think he is an elite talent. I think you could hear the life coach coming through...They are all about making correct decisions going forward, but their message is not necessarily geared for the public's consumption.
elroy16 Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Yeah, maybe. Or maybe he just hung out with Bruce Smith and saw his therapist now and then and showed up to OBD not in football playing shape-----just like he did 2 years ago. If this guy didn't have the exact same history only 2 years ago, you scenario might make sense. But you can only believe what you do if you completely ignore or pretend his issues in 2014 never happened. Except that he's not out of shape. I'm well aware he had issues two years ago. I guess people can't change or grow, good to know...
abc Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 But to your last example - since it was our GM that did that, aren't you arguing he IS the greater fool? Yeah, even GM's who make some good moves still make ill advised ones from time to time. That example is a case in point. Another example: I know they are 4-0 but the Vikings giving up a 1st and 3rd (or 4th? can't recall) for Bradford was foolish IMO. I think they could be 4-0 with Shaun Hill too. And Bridgewater comes back next season. Anyway, I agree Dareus isn't going anywhere else in the NFL for a few years.
Freddie's Dead Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Only rehab = help and No rehab = lie strike me as somewhat naive positions Awesome Fluffy meme! I believe in rehab because it works, and forces the addict to confront their addiction. When an addict makes a show of saying "I'm going to rehab", then a month later we find out he didn't, I think it's naive to think he got the help he needed. To me, he's showing all the signs of an addict in avoidance. I hope I'm wrong, but we're just gonna disagree on this one.
Magox Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 The Bills need to lead a push in the NFL to make marijuana use legal. It's the only way to protect their investment in guys like dareus and karlos. uh, ok
K D Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 I said this when we hired Rex. Dareus was probably worth A LOT more back then. Get a legit 3-4 NT and trade Dareus and his stupid contract asap. Hes 1 bong hit away from being suspended for the 2017 season
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Yeah, even GM's who make some good moves still make ill advised ones from time to time. That example is a case in point. Another example: I know they are 4-0 but the Vikings giving up a 1st and 3rd (or 4th? can't recall) for Bradford was foolish IMO. I think they could be 4-0 with Shaun Hill too. And Bridgewater comes back next season. Anyway, I agree Dareus isn't going anywhere else in the NFL for a few years. Erm, have you seen Shaun Hill play? The last time he saw significant playing time (Rams 2014), he threw for 1600-ish yards in 9 games, 8 TD, 7 INT. Time will tell if Bradford was a wise investment for the Vikes - his health record is so, so scary. But to think Shaun Hill could do as well at QB as Bradford when healthy, sounds like you haven't watched either of them play in the last 3 years.
Recommended Posts