billsfan89 Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 The Bills survived their first quarter of the season at 2-2. Which considering the 0-2 start and the suspensions and injuries is a pretty good thing. Also factor in the away Pats* game a game usually counted as a loss is now off the schedule as a win which is a plus. My question is do the Bills under a realistic projection of the season need to win the next 3 weeks in order to have a chance at the playoffs. My theory is that the Bills need to get to 6-4 in order to realistically get to 10 wins on the season which should put the Bills in a decent position to take one of the wildcard spots. At 2-2 the Bills have 3 games coming up that are winable. @Rams-49ers-@Fins. Rams game is a toss up but a playoff team wins that game the other 2 games the Bills should be favored in. If the Bills take all 3 games they go to 5-2, which leads them into the hardest stretch of their remaining season. Pats* (With Brady likely)-@Seattle-@Bengals. It's hard to project the Bills doing any better than taking 1 of those 3 games. But at 5-2 going 1-2 in that stretch puts the Bills at 6-4 and the back 6 games of the season have some tough games but a lot of winable ones to (Including what could be a key game @Raiders). But even if the Bills win 2 of the next 3 games they go into that difficult stretch at 4-3 which would mean that losing 2 out of 3 in that stretch would put them at 5-5 going into the back 6 games which would make getting to 10 wins a lot harder needing a 5-1 record. Bottom line are these next 3 games all must wins to realistically make the playoffs? Or is this projecting too far ahead as the season can unfold and make winable games seem harder and losing games seem much more winable?
OhDozeBills Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 I look at in quarters. Basically for the next three quarters they need to go 3-1 twice and 2-2 once to get 10 wins. That will just give us a chance to get in. It's going to be tough, the schedule isn't easy. This upcoming quarter of games almost seems like 3-1 is a must. I like our team, but think 9-7 or 8-8 is more realistic.
GunnerBill Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Yea the next 3 are crucial and this Sunday feels like a litmus test. Win it and the chances of 5-2 are very good. There is a route to 10 wins for the Bills that currently does not require them to win any of their remaining games against teams that made the playoffs last year. For every game they lose against a non 2015 playoff team they have to make up by winning one of: Pats @ Seahawks @ Bengals Steelers They have got to 2-2 by beating the 2015 playoff teams they have played so wins in those games are possible but they need to start knocking off some of the other teams too.
Chandemonium Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 I think we can get a wild card going 2-1 in the next three, but I'm also fantasizing about taking the division. If we can go 3-0 headed into the pats* rematch, a win at home against the filthy Cheats would give us a tied record and the head to head tiebreaker, assuming the cheats also win out their 3 games before the rematch. Them dropping one of their next 3 and losing to us again would give us the lead outright and the tiebreaker if we can win out the next 3. A guy can dream, right?
nucci Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Every game is critical. They all count towards a playoff spot
Nihilarian Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Looking at the current status of teams the Bills are facing and my expected outcome. The Rams game will be very pivotal IMO because while they are hot at 3-1 they are also at 63 PF-76 PA. They did manage to beat the Seahawks who are a run first team with a mobile QB. The Rams are 3 1/2 point favs. Should Buffalo prevail on the road while traveling to the west coast and win that Rams game they could end up at 10-6! @Rams (3-1) L 2-3 49ers (1-3) W 3-3 @Dolphins (1-3) W 4-3 Patriots (3-1) L 4-4 @Seahawks (3-1) L 4-5 BYE @ Bengals (2-2) W 5-5 Jags W (1-3) 6-5 @ Raiders (3-1) L 6-6 Steelers (3-1) L 6-7 Browns (0-4) W 7-7 Dolphins (1-3) W 8-7 @Jets (1-3) W 9-7
eball Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 I don't remember which thread it was in, but before the season began I talked about how crucial the first 7-8 games were and how the Bills needed to be 5-3 at worst to set themselves up for a playoff run. They didn't get to 2-2 in the way any of us expected, but the next three games are the opportunity they've been looking for. Although they are underdogs this week I'm certain this is a game they feel they should win. They'll be favored at home vs. the 49ers next week, and then may even be a slight favorite at Miami the following week. Anything less than 5-2 will have me saying "same old Bills" because these are the games they must win to be taken seriously as a playoff contender.
Nanker Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Every game is critical. They all count towards a playoff spot The Bills control their own destiny.
BarleyNY Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Looking at the current status of teams the Bills are facing and my expected outcome. The Rams game will be very pivotal IMO because while they are hot at 3-1 they are also at 63 PF-76 PA. They did manage to beat the Seahawks who are a run first team with a mobile QB. The Rams are 3 1/2 point favs. Should Buffalo prevail on the road while traveling to the west coast and win that Rams game they could end up at 10-6! @Rams (3-1) L 2-3 49ers (1-3) W 3-3 @Dolphins (1-3) W 4-3 Patriots (3-1) L 4-4 @Seahawks (3-1) L 4-5 BYE @ Bengals (2-2) W 5-5 Jags W (1-3) 6-5 @ Raiders (3-1) L 6-6 Steelers (3-1) L 6-7 Browns (0-4) W 7-7 Dolphins (1-3) W 8-7 @Jets (1-3) W 9-7 This is pretty much how I see it. I like to look at the season in quarters. I thought 2-2 over the first four games was necessary - as well as the most expected outcome (although they did it a bit differently than I thought). Over the next four, 3-1 gets them to 5-3 which is right on pace for 10-6. It's something that a playoff caliber team should be able to do. If that's what they want to be, they have to beat the mediocre teams. They've got three in a row coming up.
Marty McFly Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Most definitely. Playoff teams consistently knock off the weaker teams and stack up the wins. The question down the line is, who do we have a better chance of beating,The Bengs or the Steels? Anyone?
PromoTheRobot Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 The Pats play the Steelers in Pittsburgh so it's possible both teams will be 5-2 for the rematch in Buffalo. We befuddled the hoodie once already. I'm not giving Marcia an automatic W.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Since we are likely competing for a WC spot and there were teams that didn't make it at 10-6 last year, I would say the next 13 weeks are critical for the Bills playoff hopes
All_Pro_Bills Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 This is pretty much how I see it. I like to look at the season in quarters. I thought 2-2 over the first four games was necessary - as well as the most expected outcome (although they did it a bit differently than I thought). Over the next four, 3-1 gets them to 5-3 which is right on pace for 10-6. It's something that a playoff caliber team should be able to do. If that's what they want to be, they have to beat the mediocre teams. They've got three in a row coming up. Yup. They need to avoid the Bills annual clunker game against a team they 'should' beat. You can't beat Pittsburgh and then lose to Cleveland a week later.
ricojes Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 I tend to think like a player and have a 1 week at a time mentality. The Bills need to win this week, even though Crayonz may disagree. I hate looking ahead, you never know what will happen from week to week, so it really only makes sense to focus on the task at hand. Beat LA and get to 3-2, let's GO BILLS!!!!
PromoTheRobot Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 Since we are likely competing for a WC spot and there were teams that didn't make it at 10-6 last year, I would say the next 13 weeks are critical for the Bills playoff hopes F### that loser mentality. We are winning the division.
billsfan89 Posted October 7, 2016 Author Posted October 7, 2016 Looking at the current status of teams the Bills are facing and my expected outcome. The Rams game will be very pivotal IMO because while they are hot at 3-1 they are also at 63 PF-76 PA. They did manage to beat the Seahawks who are a run first team with a mobile QB. The Rams are 3 1/2 point favs. Should Buffalo prevail on the road while traveling to the west coast and win that Rams game they could end up at 10-6! @Rams (3-1) L 2-3 49ers (1-3) W 3-3 @Dolphins (1-3) W 4-3 Patriots (3-1) L 4-4 @Seahawks (3-1) L 4-5 BYE @ Bengals (2-2) W 5-5 Jags W (1-3) 6-5 @ Raiders (3-1) L 6-6 Steelers (3-1) L 6-7 Browns (0-4) W 7-7 Dolphins (1-3) W 8-7 @Jets (1-3) W 9-7 That's why I think the Rams game is key to getting to 10 wins. Even if you want to say the Bills are going to win the division the next 3 games are critical to doing so. Bills could go into that Pats* game 5-2, they win that game they go to 6-2 and the Pats* even in a best case where they win the next 3 games go to 6-2 but the Bills have the tiebreaker over them. You then could split the next two games and go to 7-3 with a good stretch of 6 games to end the season and finish 11-5 with a 4-2 finish to the season or 12-4 finish with a 5-1 finish. I think that given what we have seen might be a bit too optimistic esp with Sammy out. But even in an optimistic scenario the Bills need to get to 5-2. I think realistically 10 wins is where the Bills need to be at the very minimum to contend realistically for a playoff spot. The AFC North with Baltimore, Pitt, and Cincy will likely produce 2 10+ win teams. The AFC West could produce another two 10+ win team in the Broncos and possibly Raiders. So likely if the Bills were to be a team to contend for a wildcard spot their competition would likely be the Ravens, Bengals, and Raiders. The Bills lost to the Ravens but they do have their destiny in their own hands against the Raiders and Bengals playing them later in the season albeit both away games. My thought process is that the Bills simply can't hover around or close to .500 heading into that tough 3 game stretch. They need to pile up wins the next 3 weeks to make it strong into those 3 games where sneaking just 1 of those 3 puts them in a healthy position to finish out the stretch strong. I do agree that the Bills are likely to finish 8-8 or 9-7 given what we have seen through the first 4 games based on the fact that I think they drop a game or two in which they "Should" win. But to me these next three weeks are such a key point in their season.
What a Tuel Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 All games are critical for playoff hopes but no, these games won't break it. The last 7 will define our playoff hopes. All 7 AFC opponents, and 3-4 of which are wildcard contenders.
stevestojan Posted October 7, 2016 Posted October 7, 2016 No, ~20% of the season won't matter to their playoff hopes.
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