Tracking the defense...

[GunnerBill]

 

And if the "problem" is being a defense that will probably finish somewhere 9-15 this year, then I don't disagree. I think we just differ on how big of a "problem" that is. And yeah, may be he shouldn't have promised a 1 defense, but get over it, ladies. Sometimes Rex says some **** into a microphone. Welcome to Earth.

 

If the "problem" is that we finished 4 two years ago (having finished 22 and 26 the two years prior), then I don't know what to tell you. If that was your expectation, I think I've exhausted all avenues for explaining why that expectation is/was/will forever be faulty.

 

This defense needs playmakers on the back end, period. Eric Berry has single-handedly won what? three games for the Chiefs so far this year? In this league, they change the complexion and the outcome of contests and we have none. This is not an excuse, it's an observation, and no one here can deny it.

 

It was 20th the year before if you are going ppg which I think you are cos in ypg it was 10th. The arrow was pointing up under Pettine without doubt. It pointed down early on with Rex and has pretty close to flat lined ever since. You can blame it on injuries or the loss of talent if you like but I challenge anyone to look at the all 22 week in week out and say this defense has looked consistently well coached. It has in stretches and has played well in stretches but the upturned palms and checking for rain have been back in earnest in recent weeks.

 

People want to act on Schwartz like his Philly D has fallen apart - it hasn't. It has not been as dominant as early in the season but it is ahead of Buffalo in every one of my tracking stats other than sacks. And just remind yourself where that D was last year.

 

If Rex Ryan is back next year then he should be back with a new coordinator. Thurman and Rob both need to go.

[The Big Cat]

 

It was 20th the year before if you are going ppg which I think you are cos in ypg it was 10th. The arrow was pointing up under Pettine without doubt. It pointed down early on with Rex and has pretty close to flat lined ever since. You can blame it on injuries or the loss of talent if you like but I challenge anyone to look at the all 22 week in week out and say this defense has looked consistently well coached. It has in stretches and has played well in stretches but the upturned palms and checking for rain have been back in earnest in recent weeks.

 

People want to act on Schwartz like his Philly D has fallen apart - it hasn't. It has not been as dominant as early in the season but it is ahead of Buffalo in every one of my tracking stats other than sacks. And just remind yourself where that D was last year.

 

If Rex Ryan is back next year then he should be back with a new coordinator. Thurman and Rob both need to go.

 

10th in total yards under Pettine, yes. But again: 20th in scoring and 10 losses that season due in no small measure to being ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed. So, arrow up...MAY BE.

 

That said, last night I was wondering about a Pettine/Rex reunion with Thurman out the door. Seems like Rex's defenses have taken a dip since Pettine was removed from the equation.

 

No chance he fires his bro.

[Nihilarian]

Speaking of that 2014 Buffalo Bills Jim Schwartz defense while considering all the freaking excuses for Rex Ryan's defense.

 

Let's look at two factors. That 2014 defense managed to be #4 overall in the NFL with virtually NO RUN GAME for the majority of the season! (579 passing attempts vs 402 rushing attempts) The Bills started with a good run game in the first two weeks of that 2014 season and then went pass happy nearly every game by asking the QB to throw almost 40 times a game.

 

Now imagine if that year the Bills had an effective ground game that could control the clock and keep the opposing defense off balance. It would more than likely have been far better than #4 overall.

 

The next fact to consider is what QB's the Bills faced and beaten the last two years versus that 2014 season.

 

Beaten, Jay Cutler 5-10, Ryan Tannehill 8-8, Matthew Stafford 11-5, Teddy Bridgewater 6-6, Mike Vick 1-2, Geno Smith 3-10 2x, Brian Hoyer 7-6, Aaron Rodgers 12-4, (Rodgers also won the MVP this season passing for 38 TD's with 5 INT's) Buffalo held Rodgers to 17 of 42 for 185 yards, NO TD's, 2 INT's! a 34.3 rate! wow!

 

The Bills lost to the Broncos, but Peyton Manning 12-4 (Manning also threw for 4727 yards and 39 TD's this year) Buffalo held him to 14 of 20 for 173 yards,NO TD's 2 INTs, a 56.9 rate!!

 

The 2014 Buffalo Bills also beat New England in the last game of the season limiting Patriots QB Tom Brady 8 of 16 for 80 yards, no TD's, no INT's in the first half a 64.6 rating! and he was pulled for Garoppolo who went 10 of 17 for 90 yards, no TD's, no INT's.

 

Bottom line here is that Schwartz's defense beat some great QB's and did it with almost no run game,and he did it with McKelvin at CB! Which is something that Ryan's defense can't win without having a strong, effective run game. Ryan's defense also hasn't beaten a QB with a winning record in two years in Buffalo, save Brian Hoyer. Ryan's defense has yet to win a game this year against a QB with a winning record.

[26CornerBlitz]

Speaking of that 2014 Buffalo Bills Jim Schwartz defense while considering all the freaking excuses for Rex Ryan's defense.

 

Let's look at two factors. That 2014 defense managed to be #4 overall in the NFL with virtually NO RUN GAME for the majority of the season! (579 passing attempts vs 402 rushing attempts) The Bills started with a good run game in the first two weeks of that 2014 season and then went pass happy nearly every game by asking the QB to throw almost 40 times a game.

 

Now imagine if that year the Bills had an effective ground game that could control the clock and keep the opposing defense off balance. It would more than likely have been far better than #4 overall.

 

The next fact to consider is what QB's the Bills faced and beaten the last two years versus that 2014 season.

 

Beaten, Jay Cutler 5-10, Ryan Tannehill 8-8, Matthew Stafford 11-5, Teddy Bridgewater 6-6, Mike Vick 1-2, Geno Smith 3-10 2x, Brian Hoyer 7-6, Aaron Rodgers 12-4, (Rodgers also won the MVP this season passing for 38 TD's with 5 INT's) Buffalo held Rodgers to 17 of 42 for 185 yards, NO TD's, 2 INT's! a 34.3 rate! wow!

 

The Bills lost to the Broncos, but Peyton Manning 12-4 (Manning also threw for 4727 yards and 39 TD's this year) Buffalo held him to 14 of 20 for 173 yards,NO TD's 2 INTs, a 56.9 rate!!

 

The 2014 Buffalo Bills also beat New England in the last game of the season limiting Patriots QB Tom Brady 8 of 16 for 80 yards, no TD's, no INT's in the first half a 64.6 rating! and he was pulled for Garoppolo who went 10 of 17 for 90 yards, no TD's, no INT's.

 

Bottom line here is that Schwartz's defense beat some great QB's and did it with almost no run game,and he did it with McKelvin at CB! Which is something that Ryan's defense can't win without having a strong, effective run game. Ryan's defense also hasn't beaten a QB with a winning record in two years in Buffalo, save Brian Hoyer. Ryan's defense has yet to win a game this year against a QB with a winning record.

 

Looks like the Bills only played Brady and the Patriots once is 2014. Seems rather odd.

[The Big Cat]

 

Bottom line here is that Schwartz's defense beat some great QB's and did it with almost no run game,and he did it with McKelvin at CB! Which is something that Ryan's defense can't win without having a strong, effective run game. Ryan's defense also hasn't beaten a QB with a winning record in two years in Buffalo, save Brian Hoyer. Ryan's defense has yet to win a game this year against a QB with a winning record.

 

What does this have to do with anything that's been discussed today?

 

And also are you meaning to suggest that an offense that can move and control the ball has a positive effect on the defense? Hmmm...

How come McKelvin sucks this year under Schwartz?

[GunnerBill]

 

And also are you meaning to suggest that an offense that can move and control the ball has a positive effect on the defense? Hmmm...

The point here is the 2014 offense went 3 and out all the time as well. That isn't something new that Rex has dealt with.

[The Big Cat]

The point here is the 2014 offense went 3 and out all the time as well. That isn't something new that Rex has dealt with.

 

Firstly, it didn't go three and out with the same frequency, that's measurably false.

 

Secondly, as it pertains to moi, I have only brought up three and outs because the TT offense strings them together. Two teams can go three and out four times in a game. The team that does it once a quarter does its defense way less harm than the team that does it four times in a row, which is what TT does and what I have been saying for more than a year now.

In fact, we've been over this before. You and me. In great detail: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/189691-bills-defense-average-after-all-the-changes-corrected/?view=findpost&p=4111994

[BringBackOrton]

 

Firstly, it didn't go three and out with the same frequency, that's measurably false.

 

Secondly, as it pertains to moi, I have only brought up three and outs because the TT offense strings them together. Two teams can go three and out four times in a game. The team that does it once a quarter does its defense way less harm than the team that does it four times in a row, which is what TT does and what I have been saying for more than a year now.

In fact, we've been over this before. You and me. In great detail: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/189691-bills-defense-average-after-all-the-changes-corrected/?view=findpost&p=4111994

Did you ever compare the number of consecutive 3 and outs of 2014 compared with 2015?

[bobobonators]

 

Firstly, it didn't go three and out with the same frequency, that's measurably false.

 

Secondly, as it pertains to moi, I have only brought up three and outs because the TT offense strings them together. Two teams can go three and out four times in a game. The team that does it once a quarter does its defense way less harm than the team that does it four times in a row, which is what TT does and what I have been saying for more than a year now.

 

In fact, we've been over this before. You and me. In great detail: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/189691-bills-defense-average-after-all-the-changes-corrected/?view=findpost&p=4111994

The Arizona Cardinals have an almost identical 3rd down % as us on offense and they have the #2 defense.

 

The Los Angeles Rams have a substantially worse 3rd down % than us and their defense is better than ours both in yards and pts/game.

 

At what point does this excuse just become an excuse. Its a factor, certainly, but not an overwhelming one.

Edited December 7, 2016 by bobobonators

[The Big Cat]

The Arizona Cardinals have an almost identical 3rd down % as us on offense and they have the #2 defense.

 

The Los Angeles Rams have a substantially worse 3rd down % than us and their defense is better than ours both in yards and pts/game.

 

At what point does this excuse just become an excuse. Its a factor, certainly, but not an overwhelming one.

 

Because--AGAIN--it matters less how many you have and is much more of a factor when you string them together. What about this is confusing?

The Bills went 3 and out in strings plenty of times in 2014.

 

If only somebody linked to a break down.

Did you ever compare the number of consecutive 3 and outs of 2014 compared with 2015?

 

If only there was a link to that.

[BringBackOrton]

 

Because--AGAIN--it matters less how many you have and is much more of a factor when you string them together. What about this is confusing?

 

If only somebody linked to a break down.

 

If only there was a link to that.

I just checked out your link and I didn't see a 16 game to 16 game analysis.

 

Cherry picking 5 games and saying SEE! is hardly thorough.

Edited December 7, 2016 by jmc12290

[The Big Cat]

I just checked out your link and I didn't see a 16 game to 16 game analysis.

 

then do one yourself

[GunnerBill]

 

Firstly, it didn't go three and out with the same frequency, that's measurably false.

 

The 2014 team went 3 and out 2% less of the time than the 2015 team and 2% more of the time so far than the 2016 team.

 

Those differences are nowhere near sufficient to even begin to explain the difference in defensive performances.

 

I have never disagreed with you that bad offenses hurt defenses. It is just the 2014 team had to overcome that plenty too... and they DID generally overcome. The 2015 defense didn't and nor has this years.

 

You want things that are demonstrable.... there you go.

 

2016: https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/three-and-out-percentage/2016/

 

2015:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/three-and-out-percentage/2015/

 

2014: https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/three-and-out-percentage/2014/

Edited December 7, 2016 by GunnerBill

[BringBackOrton]

 

then do one yourself

I believe I already did, somewhere. You failed to respond to it then, too.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

The Arizona Cardinals have an almost identical 3rd down % as us on offense and they have the #2 defense.

 

The Los Angeles Rams have a substantially worse 3rd down % than us and their defense is better than ours both in yards and pts/game.

 

At what point does this excuse just become an excuse. Its a factor, certainly, but not an overwhelming one.

Three and out % on offense has nothing to do with hurting your defense!

 

I checked and it has MINUS.2 to MINUS .3 correlation with the defensive stats (yards, Points, Yds/play, Expected Pts allowed.)

 

As a matter of fact,the five best teams at avoiding three and outs have an average D ranking of 27th. the 5 worst-average D ranking is 16!

 

When you think about it, makes no sense,if your D is great at three and outs it doesn't necessarily make your offense perform better.

[The Big Cat]

The 2014 team went 3 and out 2% less of the time than the 2015 team and 2% more of the time so far than the 2016 team.

 

Those differences are nowhere near sufficient to even begin to explain the difference in defensive performances.

 

I have never disagreed with you that bad offenses hurt defenses. It is just the 2014 team had to overcome that plenty too... and they DID generally overcome. The 2015 defense didn't and nor has this years.

 

You want things that are demonstrable.... there you go.

 

Again...you're not pointing to a single measurement of three and outs in bunches. That's the key difference.

[Nihilarian]

 

Looks like the Bills only played Brady and the Patriots once is 2014. Seems rather odd.

 

The next fact to consider is what QB's the Bills faced and beaten the last two years versus that 2014 season.

It was placed in context as to what QB's the Bills had beaten in 2014.

 

 

There is no question that Schwartz's scheme held the team that went to the SB that year and Tom Brady the second time around to three FG's while beating them in New England! My take is old Bill pulled Brady in that second half so he wouldn't get injured as that vaunted Patriots offense wasn't doing much anyway.

 

Oh, wait! The 2016 Buffalo Bills beat the Patriots in New England too...only they didn't face either Brady or Garoppolo. They faced an injured rookie, 3rd string QB who went on IR after that game.

 

The point remains. Rex Ryan's defense isn't very good and now can't even slow down the better QB's with a winning record.

 

 

 

 

 

What does this have to do with anything that's been discussed today? Everthing! The debate is about the current defense!

 

And also are you meaning to suggest that an offense that can move and control the ball has a positive effect on the defense? Hmmm... It's been your contention post after post, thread after thread that the defense doesn't work without a solid offensive run game, ball control. Schwartz did it without a decent run game.

How come McKelvin sucks this year under Schwartz? McKelvin has always sucked was the point and yet Schwartz's scheme manages to make him look somewhat competnant!

So far this year the only teams the Buffalo Bills have beaten are the bad teams or a good team with an injured rookie QB. Ryan's defensive scheme is outdated and no longer works against a quality opponent.

 

Looks like Rex will be fired after this season unless he pulls off a miracle and manages to beat the Steelers and Dolphins.

[GunnerBill]

 

Again...you're not pointing to a single measurement of three and outs in bunches. That's the key difference.

No what I am saying is when the overall percentage of 3 and outs are that close I can't believe that the difference is so significant that is even a partial excuse for the defensive performance.

[bobobonators]

 

Because--AGAIN--it matters less how many you have and is much more of a factor when you string them together. What about this is confusing?

 

If only somebody linked to a break down.

 

If only there was a link to that.

 

 

I get what you're saying, you don't have to be obnoxious about it. I'm not aware of a 3 and out % "in bunches" stat. I don't think that's tracked, except on this message board.

 

Some of the best defenses in the NFL have some of the worst offensive 3 and out %'s.

 

3 and out % rankings:

 

#31: Rams - 28.87%; have #15 defense in pts/game (better than Bills Defense pts/game)

 

#30: Broncos - 28.86%: have the #6 defense in pts/game (better than the Bills defense pts/game)

 

#28: NY Giants - 24.48%: have the #8 defense in pts/game (better than the Bills defense pts/game)

 

#27: Bills - 24.43%

 

#26: Lions - 23.48%: have the #11 defense in pts/game (better than the Bills Defense)

 

#25: Cardinals - 23.45%: have the #11 defense tied with Detroit in pts/game (better than the Bills Defense)

 

#24: Bears - 22.90%: have the #16 defense in pts/game (better than the Bills Defense)

 

#23: Patriots - 22.56%: have the #2 defense in pts/game (better than the Bills Defense)

 

Additional teams in the bottom half of the NFL in 3rd down % rankings on offense, but still have a better defensive ranking than the Bills in pts/game:

 

Chiefs

Vikings

Bengals

Steelers

[bobobonators]

No what I am saying is when the overall percentage of 3 and outs are that close I can't believe that the difference is so significant that is even a partial excuse for the defensive performance.

 

Correct. From the numbers, there is absolutely NO correlation between an offense's 3 and out % and a defense's performance:

 

you look at the best offenses in the NFL at 3rd down %'s, they have some of the worst defenses in the NFL:

 

1. Redskins

2. Falcons

3. Saints

4. Chargers

5. Panthers

 

Those are the top 5 teams in the NFL at having the fewest 3 and outs. They are the elite offenses at sustaining drives. And they all have horrible defense in pts/game, with the highest ranked team of those being Washington at #20 in pts/game on defense, and the rest being abominations.

 

Meanwhile, some of the worst offenses in the nfl at sustaining drives have some of the best defenses in pts/game (as listed in previous post).

 

ZERO correlation.

 

Fact: if the defense is good, the defense is good. The defense WANTS to be on the field, b/c they know they can stop an opposing offense. The defense knows they're going to get a strip sack. The defense knows they're going to get an INT. The defense doesn't run away with its tail between its legs saying "oh no, the offense went 3 and out, what are we going to do now?"

 

The end.

Edited December 7, 2016 by bobobonators