nucci Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 Good win yesterday for sure but the reality is that the win hurt us in terms of playoff opportunity. As much as I'd love to win the division, I don't think the Bills are there yet and even if they were I'm not sure the NFL and especially the refs would allow it. If correct, this means any hope at the playoffs is via wild card. Yesterday's win put us at the very bottom of tie-breaker scenarios in the case of wild card opportunities. Unless we're only battling teams in our own division or one on one with a team we'll play or have played like Baltimore, then the first tie breaker involves eliminating teams that have good records against the NFC. It seems likely that we may end up there. Arizona is/was a favorite in that division and we get the Rams and 9ers later in the year. We're looking at a 3-1 record against the NFC with the probable loss coming against Seattle. I think that record will probably be too good to keep us in the hunt tie-breaker wise. so you would prefer to lose every game?
CodeMonkey Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 Good win yesterday for sure but the reality is that the win hurt us in terms of playoff opportunity. As much as I'd love to win the division, I don't think the Bills are there yet and even if they were I'm not sure the NFL and especially the refs would allow it. If correct, this means any hope at the playoffs is via wild card. Yesterday's win put us at the very bottom of tie-breaker scenarios in the case of wild card opportunities. Unless we're only battling teams in our own division or one on one with a team we'll play or have played like Baltimore, then the first tie breaker involves eliminating teams that have good records against the NFC. It seems likely that we may end up there. Arizona is/was a favorite in that division and we get the Rams and 9ers later in the year. We're looking at a 3-1 record against the NFC with the probable loss coming against Seattle. I think that record will probably be too good to keep us in the hunt tie-breaker wise. WTF, how does that tin foil hat fit.
4merper4mer Posted September 26, 2016 Author Posted September 26, 2016 Likelihood of making the playoffs at: 1-2: 25% 0-3: 2% Just win, baby. Odds of tiebreakers being involved in determining playoffs/seeding is pretty darn close to 100%
PromoTheRobot Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 I'm sure people would have been mad at a loss but in a tie breaker situation the answer to your question is yes. I think you have it backwards. It's true that NFC wins don't help in your playoff tiebreakers, you still need wins to be in a tiebreaker. It doesn't hurt us at all. Playoffs are determined by the entire 16 game record. Games at the beginning or end of the season are weighted equally but the first tie breaker for AFC teams is eliminating teams that have a good record against the NFC. You can look it up at NFL.com Link please. It's on you to prove this unicorn exists.
kdub Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 (edited) Odds of tiebreakers being involved in determining playoffs/seeding is pretty darn close to 100% So you'd rather be 9-7 and in a tiebreaker scenario (likely winning) for wildcard than 10-6 and in a tiebreaker scenario (likely losing) for seeds 3/4? Edited September 26, 2016 by kdub
4merper4mer Posted September 26, 2016 Author Posted September 26, 2016 Link please. It's on you to prove this unicorn exists. I thought it was obvious but here you go: NFL.com
CountryCletus Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 Instead of tie breaker scenarios- let's just focus on getting W's and put that worry on another franchise.... After 16 years of chit, I'm still happy seeing us "in the hunt" on that thing they put on TV nearing the end of the regular season
PromoTheRobot Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 I thought it was obvious but here you go: NFL.com Yup, there it is, plain as day. How did I miss that?
PolishDave Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 It is stupid to concern yourself over winning too many NFC game matchups. The goal is to win dude - the more games the better. Yes it is ideal if you beat all the AFC teams, but FFS, a week ago people on here wanted to tank and were convinced we wouldn't win any games this year. Now somebody is worried that we are going to be too good against NFC teams? If you want to make this argument, wait till we lose to another AFC team. Then make the point that the loses vs. AFC hurt you a little more because of tiebreakers. Don't try to make the argument after we just beat a really good NFC team.
Nihilarian Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 I agree but if we beat Seattle we are probably toast. If this team beats the Seahawks in Seattle then I shouldn't worry about any other game the rest of the season because it will be a sweep.
r00tabaga Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 I usually just ignore his posts, but hey, I'm IN!
4merper4mer Posted September 26, 2016 Author Posted September 26, 2016 If this team beats the Seahawks in Seattle then I shouldn't worry about any other game the rest of the season because it will be a sweep. I actually don't think Seattle is all that great this year. Still a tough game sure, but not like the last 5 years or so.
NorthBuffaloKid Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 Winning = Good Losing = Bad Very simple. Now we have to go to NE and play well there. One play at a time. If we do that win or lose, we may just be able to cobb out a season.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 Playoffs are determined by the entire 16 game record. Games at the beginning or end of the season are weighted equally but the first tie breaker for AFC teams is eliminating teams that have a good record against the NFC. You can look it up at NFL.com I admire the interpretation... Yes if you assume you could trade this win for another win instead, you might want to. But having this win puts you into a tiebreaker scenario you wouldn't otherwise be in with one less win.
ricojes Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 Found it, ieatcrayonz is back... http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/73019-the-bills-are-putting-themselves-in-a-bad-position/
r00tabaga Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 You my friend have cracked the case! Crayonz is 4merper4mer. 4merper4mer is Crayonz. Eww, "your gun is digging into my hip"...
Maury Ballstein Posted September 26, 2016 Posted September 26, 2016 (edited) Can we move all threads started by op way way way way off the wall ? We know your mad about Rex Ryan winning. Edited September 26, 2016 by Ryan L Billz
4merper4mer Posted September 26, 2016 Author Posted September 26, 2016 ol' crayonz What the heck did Ellie do that was so bad anyway? That's just mean.
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