The Big Cat Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 (edited) Re: A) I didn't say that. The Big Cat did. What I'm trying to say, albeit only obliquely up to this point, is that ratings problems of the NFL, which was an outlier in mass network entertainment, has the feel of a canary in the coal mine. It's not even right, in my opinion, to compare the NFL with baseball or basketball, the ratings of which are negligible compared to prime time shows like the NFL. It's better to compare the NFL to The Big Bang Theory and other shows at the top of the ratings because that's really like to like. Those top-rated shows all have far smaller numbers than ratings leaders years ago. The only one to escape this trend was the NFL, whose ratings just kept going up despite the wreckage around it. The marked decline we've seen so far suggests that perhaps we're seeing a notable intensification of the changes that have already begun in how people consume entertainment. Now it could be the effects of lousy games, the lack of Brady/Manning, and a crazy presidential election. We'll know better once the post-election games come around and the suspensions are over with. I can provide data on this point. The ratings for the NFL completely blow away these other sports. Here's a question: Are ratings based on relativity to other shows happened at the same time? Relativity to the general population? Relativity to estimates of people consuming media at that time? Is it fair to ask how these numbers are impacted by people dropping out of the game completely? Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, all these things: are we measuring NFL/BBT against the estimated audiences who AREN'T watching television, but who are streaming content instead? Here's a math exercise. Assume Apple pays the same amount that DTV is paying for Sunday Ticket - $2 billion, and it doesn't have an existing subscriber base for its basic tv service, and assume that there are 2 million Sunday Ticket subscribers. How much will Apple charge for the service if it wants to maintain its 38% operating margin. Careful what you wish for. Sometimes you pay a price to squash your competitors. Sometimes you buy things to out leverage your competition, not to make money in the short term. Edited October 4, 2016 by The Big Cat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Re: A) I didn't say that. The Big Cat did. What I'm trying to say, albeit only obliquely up to this point, is that ratings problem currently facing the NFL, which was an outlier in mass network entertainment, has the feel of a canary in the coal mine. It's not even right, in my opinion, to compare the NFL with baseball or basketball, the ratings of which are negligible compared to genuinely prime time shows like the NFL. It's better to compare the NFL to The Big Bang Theory and other shows at the top of the ratings because that's really like to like. Those top-rated shows all have far smaller numbers than ratings leaders years ago. The only one to escape this trend was the NFL, whose ratings just kept going up despite the wreckage around it. The marked decline we've seen so far suggests that perhaps we're seeing a notable intensification of the changes that have already begun in how people consume entertainment. Now it could be the effects of lousy games, the lack of Brady/Manning, and a crazy presidential election. We'll know better once the post-election games come around and the suspensions are over with. I can provide data on this point. The ratings for the NFL completely blow away these other sports. I have a hunch that if certain things play out or flame out that we'll see ratings go back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Here's a question: Are ratings based on relativity to other shows happened at the same time? Relativity to the general population? Relativity to estimates of people consuming media at that time? Is it fair to ask how these numbers are impacted by people dropping out of the game completely? Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, all these things: are we measuring NFL/BBT against the estimated audiences who AREN'T watching television, but instead are streaming content instead? Ratings measure the absolute number of people watching the program. So if people are consuming less of that program, you will get less advertising and you won't pay as much for that program on the renegotiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I have a hunch that if certain things play out or flame out that we'll see ratings go back up. You mean like if a bottom three team (Chicago) ceases to be featured in half the SNF games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Here's a question: Are ratings based on relativity to other shows happened at the same time? Relativity to the general population? Relativity to estimates of people consuming media at that time? Is it fair to ask how these numbers are impacted by people dropping out of the game completely? Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, all these things: are we measuring NFL/BBT against the estimated audiences who AREN'T watching television, but who are streaming content instead? I agree that it's extremely tricky, and i also think that a lot of people watch these shows via other platforms and don't get captured. it's a big measurement problem for the networks, obviously. But you can bet that people watching shows on these other platforms or via DVR aren't watching ads. Speaking for myself, the ideal kickoff time for a Bills Sunday game is 2:15 pm (on the NFL ticket). If I start watching it then, chances are I won't have to watch a single ad and will catch up with real time perfectly by 4 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ratings measure the absolute number of people watching the program. So if people are consuming less of that program, you will get less advertising and you won't pay as much for that program on the renegotiation. Pretty sure there's a share measurement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Makes no difference when you are talking that kind of money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 You mean like if a bottom three team (Chicago) ceases to be featured in half the SNF games? LOL. So true. Anyone with half a brain knew that the Bears would be mediocre at best this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I agree that it's extremely tricky, and i also think that a lot of people watch these shows via other platforms and don't get captured. it's a big measurement problem for the networks, obviously. But you can bet that people watching shows on these other platforms or via DVR aren't watching ads. Speaking for myself, the ideal kickoff time for a Bills Sunday game is 2:15 pm (on the NFL ticket). If I start watching it then, chances are I won't have to watch a single ad and will catch up with real time perfectly by 4 pm. Which leads me to float a theory I've been pitching for years: The NFL will move to a direct-to-consumer pay per view model, thus eliminating two middle men (Networks/advertisers). Putting ST online, broadcasting on Yahoo last year, and the crumbs they accepted from Twitter was all part of the grand experiment to determine what kind of infrastructure they'd need to build/purchase/partner with to deliver live games on a subscription basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Oddly, those Chicago Bear games show less of a drop in viewership than most other games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Which leads me to float a theory I've been pitching for years: The NFL will move to a direct-to-consumer pay per view model, thus eliminating two middle men (Networks/advertisers). Putting ST online, broadcasting on Yahoo last year, and the crumbs they accepted from Twitter was all part of the grand experiment to determine what kind of infrastructure they'd need to build/purchase/partner with to deliver live games on a subscription basis. God I wish they would. And I wish they would do it right away so I can finally cut my cord and get rid of cable TV. Primary reason I keep it is to get the NFL channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Oddly, those Chicago Bear games show less of a drop in viewership than most other games. That is interesting, because man, they are unwatchable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Pretty sure there's a share measurement? There is a share measurement, but that's not what the article was talking about. It was talking about ratings, and a double digit ratings drop for prime time NFL games is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaadThingsMan Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Election year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 It seems like a real vanilla season so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Election year Stop. You need to get on board the NFL is gonna fold within 5 years train. Get on it now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Stop. You need to get on board the NFL is gonna fold within 5 years train. Get on it now! Has this argument been made? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 As usual, many many excellent points on here. For me personally the product itself is watered down. Too many flags, replays, antics and other shenanigans are my guesses. When I talk to people "at the water cooler" it seems to be what others are saying too. MNF used to be a ratings gold mine and must see TV. I remember looking forward all day to coming home and watching that. Can't remember the last time I watched one beyond halftime. Netflix, HBO and other outlets are producing some of the best shows in recent memory (Game of Thrones, The Wire, House of Cards). There's more talk of that than the NFL anymore. I still watch, but not at the level I did in the late 80's and 90's. There are too many games that lack stellar play from one or both teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I think there is a good explanation to why this is happening. Isn't the player salary cap somehow tied to TV revenues? If that's the case and salaries don't increase as much as they would have increased, I think there will be a certain back up football player that is going to receive lots of criticism behind closed doors from many players in the league. No. Total revenues. TV revenues are basically fixed until 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 @SInow Media Circus: Why are NFL ratings down so much? (by @RichardDeitsch) http://on.si.com/2cQQbnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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