Your honest prediction for the Bills record this year

[eball]

First, the sobering truth. Advance Vegas lines have the Bills as favorites in only five games this season (all at home -- NYJ, SF, JAX, CLE, MIA) -- and three of those five come in the last six weeks. So if the Bills will be dogs in eight of their first ten games, why are we even thinking playoffs?

 

Reason #1 for me is continuity on offense. Everybody is back and they're healthy. Shady is focused. They know Roman's system so there is no learning curve. They should hit the ground running (and passing) from W1.

 

Reason #2 is what I call the "us against the world" mentality from Rex and Rob Ryan. These guys know their careers and legacy are riding on what they can do with the Bills' defense. They haven't been braggarts this summer; they've been almost quietly confident. The addition of Ed Reed to the staff can't be overstated. I don't think the Bills will be caught unprepared for any opponent.

 

So, what of the actual opponents? Here are the road games in which I give the Bills at least a coin-toss chance of pulling the upset:

 

Ravens -- great history and tradition, getting a lot of guys back healthy, but still an unknown after last year's collapse. Additional motivation for Tyrod and Rex also.

Pats*** -- Janeane Garafalo is starting at QB. 'Nuff said.

Rams -- kind of a head-scratcher that the Rams are predicted to be favorites here.

Fish -- until they prove differently, the Bills have their number and are the more talented team.

Raiders -- is this really a game we would expect the Bills to lose? Again, I think it's a coin toss and much will have happened before the 12th game of the season.

Jets -- coming in W17 it's anybody's guess what this game could mean and what the injury status for each team will be, but the Bills should certainly have a chance.

 

That means I'm chalking up the Seahawks and Bengals as "almost certain" road losses. If the Bills go 3-3 in my "coin-toss" games, that's a 3-5 road record.

 

Now for the home games. I'm going to give the Bills wins in all five they're favored in, so we're up to 8-5 with three home games left:

 

Cardinals -- Arizona travels west, is Palmer on the downswing? Legit Super Bowl contender but it should be a close game.

Pats*** -- Brady* is back, but so is Dareus. This is game eight so the records going in definitely mean something.

Steelers -- game #13; if the Bills are 7-5 or better going in I like their chances.

 

Optimistically, I see Buffalo taking two of these three for a record of 10-6 and (hopefully) a wild card. Pessimistically, it's 8-8 and on the outside looking in again.

Edited September 5, 2016 by eball

[Dr. K]

 

@Baltimore - L

Jets - W

Arizona - L

@New England - L

@Los Angeles - W

San Francisco - W

@Miami - L

New England - L

@Seattle - L

@Cincinnati - L

Jacksonville - L

@Oakland - L

Pittsburgh - L

Cleveland - W

Miami - W

@Jets - W

6-10. They start 3-3 and then in classic Bills fashion, lose 7 straight in October/November. Then they win the meaningless games in December to knock themselves out of prime draft position. Rex gets canned.

 

This looks exactly like a Bills season to me. I can already feel the deflation of the loss to Jacksonville in the middle of that seven-game slide, and the meaningless playing out of the string in those last three wins.

[JohnC]

The record of the Bills primarily rests in the hands of Tyrod. I forone believe he is up to the challenge too.

 

The problem (imo) is Rex. He is going to lose us games. There is no discipline or accountability. I really don't think he will last the season but it will be too late when (and of course if) he is fired.

 

It is interesting that almost 2x as many posters in this poll voted that the Bills will finish over .500 than below. What does this say to me? That Bills Fans are the greatest fans of any team in any sport.

I don't want to demonize Rex to the extent that all the deficiencies that the team has are his fault. That's not fair. Because of the cap and injuries all teams have to deal with their particular deficiencies. One of my main criticisms of him is that he isn't very adept at adjusting to his defense's limitations. What I find to be a peculiar defense of Rex is that the longer players play in his system the more comfortable they will become with it. That's the central point of my strong criticism of him. As demonstrated by last year he should have adapted better to the players he had on hand instead of the other way around.

 

When you look at playoff coaches such as Bellickick, Kubiak, Harbaugh, Ariens, Tomlin, Carrol. Reid, Rivera etc what you don't see is the constant swirl of distracting frivolity and commentary emanating from the HCs of their respective teams. How does a HC instill discipline on his team when he himself lacks it?

 

Last year, I thought Greg Roman did a masterful job of managing an inexperienced qb with unique talents and bringing him along. The OC relied more on the run than most teams did because that was the right approach for this team and its evolving qb. Or another way of describing the job he did is that he adapted to the talent he had on hand and to the circumstance he was in. In my opinion there was an order and a discipline to what he was doing in contrast to what the flailing Rex was doing on the other side of the ball.

 

The most compelling story line for me in this upcoming season is going to be how Tyrod Taylor plays. The least appealing story line is going to be how the bombastic HC behaves on the sidelines and listening to what he says at the podium. The remedy to that is simply tuning him out.

[Coach Tuesday]

I don't want to demonize Rex to the extent that all the deficiencies that the team has are his fault. That's not fair. Because of the cap and injuries all teams have to deal with their particular deficiencies. One of my main criticisms of him is that he isn't very adept at adjusting to his defense's limitations. What I find to be a peculiar defense of Rex is that the longer players play in his system the more comfortable they will become with it. That's the central point of my strong criticism of him. As demonstrated by last year he should have adapted better to the players he had on hand instead of the other way around.

 

When you look at playoff coaches such as Bellickick, Kubiak, Harbaugh, Ariens, Tomlin, Carrol. Reid, Rivera etc what you don't see is the constant swirl of distracting frivolity and commentary emanating from the HCs of their respective teams. How does a HC instill discipline on his team when he himself lacks it?

 

Last year, I thought Greg Roman did a masterful job of managing an inexperienced qb with unique talents and bringing him along. The OC relied more on the run than most teams did because that was the right approach for this team and its evolving qb. Or another way of describing the job he did is that he adapted to the talent he had on hand and to the circumstance he was in. In my opinion there was an order and a discipline to what he was doing in contrast to what the flailing Rex was doing on the other side of the ball.

 

The most compelling story line for me in this upcoming season is going to be how Tyrod Taylor plays. The least appealing story line is going to be how the bombastic HC behaves on the sidelines and listening to what he says at the podium. The remedy to that is simply tuning him out.

I honestly think the issue is also complexity. Complex systems are at a disadvantage under the new CBA - there just isn't time to learn and practice them.

 

The Patriots actually run a very simple defense that can be tweaked to fit changing personnel. And on offense it's just one guy. This is the new model IMO and Rex has not adjusted.

[JohnC]

I honestly think the issue is also complexity. Complex systems are at a disadvantage under the new CBA - there just isn't time to learn and practice them.

 

The Patriots actually run a very simple defense that can be tweaked to fit changing personnel. And on offense it's just one guy. This is the new model IMO and Rex has not adjusted.

Succinctly stated and well stated.

 

Rex has been in the league for quite some time and he has been a HC for extended period of time. So the problem certainly isn't a lack of experience.. One hallmark of the league is the on field and work rule changes.That's the nature of the environment he works in. If a HC can't adequately adjust to the constant state of flux in the workplace he will fail. It's not surprising that Rex has lost more games than he has won. The inordinate amount of attention Rex garners has little to do with his success rate.

Edited September 5, 2016 by JohnC

[bobobonators]

Best case 10-6; worst case 6-10. Ultimate result: 8-8.

 

Usual things will happen to us:

 

1. Key injuries and lack of depth will hurt us.

2. We'll be in several close games where we can't make the key play.

3. We'll have a couple of surprise victories.

4. We'll have a couple of boneheaded losses.

 

I'm still psyched though!

[Rocky Landing]

-Tyrod will be better.

-Watkins will be healthy.

-Shady- healthy.

-Clay- healthy and making receptions up the middle.

-Goodwin- healthy for several games, at least. Once he is out, Salas, and Powell step up. Lewis comes in from the PS, and becomes a red-zone stud.

-The O-line will be improved, Miller, and Mills have more experience, and TT will step up into the pocket more, making it easier to protect.

-J-Will will make us forget Karlos ever existed.

-Our Defense will be improved.

-We will have the best, and deepest secondary in the league.

-Lorenzo Alexander will be this year's Jerry Hughs story.

-Week five our D will get an immediate boost with the return of Marcel.

-Week 8ish, our D will get a boost from the arrival of Shaq.

-Preston Brown will become more and more confident, and respected as the defensive leader, as the season progresses.

 

10-6. Playoffs

 

Word.

Edited September 6, 2016 by Rocky Landing

[Fadingpain]

That's where I have them as well. I could see them being a couple games worse or a couple of games better.

I'm right with you, but I'd reduce the +/- to 1.

 

7-9 to 9-7 seems the likely range this year, with 8-8 being most likely.

I have 6-10.

 

I had low expectations after last season, and nothing that happened in the last few months has raised my hopes. I've never been less excited about them than this off-season. I felt at the end of last season it would be best to get rid of Wrex, but knew realistically that they wouldn't. So it's another wasted season.

 

The only hope lies with Tyrod. If he makes a massive leap, they might have a good season. But sadly, I think we have pretty much seen all Tyrod has to offer, and expect just a slightly better performance from him.

 

I hope I'm wrong.

I agree that a big leap forward in performance from Tyrod could be the magic wildcard for us this year, but small incremental gains are probably more likely.

[26CornerBlitz]

@JoeBuscaglia

NEW Podcast is posted, and it's about why I think the #Bills can go 10-6 in 2016. http://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/podcast-why-the-bills-can-go-10-6-in-2016

[Fadingpain]

I always vote optimistically. 11-5 and playoffs.

 

Losses: AZ, SEA, OAK, NE, NY

The 1992 Bills team that went to its 3rd straight Superbowl, won the "comeback game" against Houston, and was filled with HOF talent, was 11-5.

[DrDawkinstein]

The 1992 Bills team that went to its 3rd straight Superbowl, won the "comeback game" against Houston, and was filled with HOF talent, was 11-5.

 

The 2015 Chiefs and Vikings both went 11-5, the 2015 Bengals 12-4. It can happen.

[Fadingpain]

 

The 2015 Chiefs and Vikings both went 11-5, the 2015 Bengals 12-4. It can happen.

"Can" being the operative word.

 

There is a difference between possible, and probable.

[3rdand12]

We will win between 7 and 9 games. I am going to be positive ans say 9-7 but that still won't be enough for play-offs.

if we go 5-1 in the division i will call it improvement and be pleased

[3rdand12]

The 1992 Bills team that went to its 3rd straight Superbowl, won the "comeback game" against Houston, and was filled with HOF talent, was 11-5.

and I was there.

anything can happen. Never leave the stadium til the last whistle

"Can" being the operative word.

 

There is a difference between possible, and probable.

tis true enough.

i live in the realm of endless possibility

[Reks Ryan]

First, the sobering truth. Advance Vegas lines have the Bills as favorites in only five games this season (all at home -- NYJ, SF, JAX, CLE, MIA) -- and three of those five come in the last six weeks. So if the Bills will be dogs in eight of their first ten games, why are we even thinking playoffs?

 

Reason #1 for me is continuity on offense. Everybody is back and they're healthy. Shady is focused. They know Roman's system so there is no learning curve. They should hit the ground running (and passing) from W1.

 

Reason #2 is what I call the "us against the world" mentality from Rex and Rob Ryan. These guys know their careers and legacy are riding on what they can do with the Bills' defense. They haven't been braggarts this summer; they've been almost quietly confident. The addition of Ed Reed to the staff can't be overstated. I don't think the Bills will be caught unprepared for any opponent.

 

So, what of the actual opponents? Here are the road games in which I give the Bills at least a coin-toss chance of pulling the upset:

 

Ravens -- great history and tradition, getting a lot of guys back healthy, but still an unknown after last year's collapse. Additional motivation for Tyrod and Rex also.

Pats*** -- Janeane Garafalo is starting at QB. 'Nuff said.

Rams -- kind of a head-scratcher that the Rams are predicted to be favorites here.

Fish -- until they prove differently, the Bills have their number and are the more talented team.

Raiders -- is this really a game we would expect the Bills to lose? Again, I think it's a coin toss and much will have happened before the 12th game of the season.

Jets -- coming in W17 it's anybody's guess what this game could mean and what the injury status for each team will be, but the Bills should certainly have a chance.

 

That means I'm chalking up the Seahawks and Bengals as "almost certain" road losses. If the Bills go 3-3 in my "coin-toss" games, that's a 3-5 road record.

 

Now for the home games. I'm going to give the Bills wins in all five they're favored in, so we're up to 8-5 with three home games left:

 

Cardinals -- Arizona travels west, is Palmer on the downswing? Legit Super Bowl contender but it should be a close game.

Pats*** -- Brady* is back, but so is Dareus. This is game eight so the records going in definitely mean something.

Steelers -- game #13; if the Bills are 7-5 or better going in I like their chances.

 

Optimistically, I see Buffalo taking two of these three for a record of 10-6 and (hopefully) a wild card. Pessimistically, it's 8-8 and on the outside looking in again.

Pretty fair analysis of the offense and the schedule. Although I think "us against the world" and generally getting hyped for outside motivations is overrated in the NFL. Ever team has their own reasons to prove everyone wrong. It might carry a game here or there, but ultimately the more talented better coached teams will prevail over the course of a season.

 

With the continuity of the O and a full year experience for Tyrod. I believe he will his performance maybe a bit better than avg. top 1/2 of QBS in the league. But with so many questions on the D, he will likely need to be a top 5 QB in the AFC for the Bills to reach the playoffs.

 

I might disagree that the Bills are more talented than the fish. The 2 franchises have been equally and similarly dysfunctional over the last 15 years. IMO Bills have the current roster edge at RB, DB, and Fish at DL other position groups are toss up depending on injuries. Really will come down to if Tannehill can improve enough under Gase compared to Tyrod and year 2 under Roman. Important b/c Bills will probably need to sweep Miami to make playoffs.

 

I voted 7 - 9. To have a chance at 10 - 6 and playoffs, it looks like the team would need a start of 5- 2 or better before that tough 6 game stretch.

[#34fan]

DE/OLB is a clusterf__.... Still have no size at the WR position.... RB position weakened significantly by the loss of Karlos.... O-line porous....And Lastly, Rob frickin' Ryan... I don't see eight wins with the schedule we've got... With all the injuries and departures, theres a chance the team actually got worse.

[3rdand12]

DE/OLB is a clusterf__.... Still have no size at the WR position.... RB position weakened significantly by the loss of Karlos.... O-line porous....And Lastly, Rob frickin' Ryan... I don't see eight wins with the schedule we've got... With all the injuries and departures, theres a chance the team actually got worse.

Tell me about the Lbs, to start with at least

[#34fan]

Tell me about the Lbs, to start with at least

 

I've bought into Preston Brown.... Zach Brown, not yet,.... Bradon Spikes, and Lerentee McCree I'm not sure of at all.... I honestly believe with all my heart they're talented guys... I just think trying to re-create Buddy''s 46 D could create confusion as to what each guy is expected to do...

 

FWIW, I'm sure there'll be alot of instant pressure... However, IMO, a scheme that creates instant pressure also creates instant opportunites for an offense that knows what it's doing...

 

I understand people being excited about Rex and Rob's defensive history... Still, given the fact they were both recently fired; is there at least a chance these two have been figured out by the rest of the league?

[3rdand12]

 

I've bought into Preston Brown.... Zach Brown, not yet,.... Bradon Spikes, and Lerentee McCree I'm not sure of at all.... I honestly believe with all my heart they're talented guys... I just think trying to re-create Buddy''s 46 D could create confusion as to what each guy is expected to do...

 

FWIW, I'm sure there'll be alot of instant pressure... However, IMO, a scheme that creates instant pressure also creates instant opportunites for an offense that knows what it's doing...

 

I understand people being excited about Rex and Rob's defensive history... Still, given the fact they were both recently fired; is there at least a chance these two have been figured out by the rest of the league?

I think Brown looks composed and confident, but that is just preseason of course. Brandon looked rusty but really picked up by the fourth game, i think he is already locked in. I agree about Z Brown but i did see him making plays and hits. We shall see but i feel pretty good there. My concern is opposite Hughes.

Humber , that guy from Denver are unknowns to me.

Not at all worried about the run game, i think they will dominate and actually wreak havoc. But your point about the holes left by LBs ( i keep going back to Patriots 1st game last year )

They gotta fix that with scheme and discipline.

 

In regard to folks talking about Rex being figured out, i think this year is the acid test. If the communication and execution are there but its is a bad play call and Rex and Rob have trouble adjusting, then i will call it out.

Bills have said publicly they went without size at WR.

Someone goes down Dez will get brought up from PS. and someone will.

Lewis better get his game on this year.

[Rubes]

Unfortunately I can't vote since you left off 0-16 as an option.

 

Joking. 9-7

 

Gonna say it starts off poorly(2-4) and the go on a streak. Not enough to make the playoff though.

 

 

This is precisely my thinking.