All about the ladies...not voting.

[OCinBuffalo]

Well, it's not quite yet for things to get real in the POTUS election. Anybody who believes Donald Trump is 10 pts down, or even 5 pts down, is F'ing delusional. If you don't know why you are delusional: Google is your friend. Read up on how polls are failing now more than ever, as well as the Brexit polling failure. Or, the failure of all the polls in the UK to accurately predict a Conservative victory in 2015. Yeah, since 2012, polling as a discipline has consistently performed worse, not better, over time. There are scientific reasons why.

 

But, let's consider the ladies, and the vote in 2016, shall we?

 

First of all here's what happens when the ladies are confronted with ever-increasing negative campaigning: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=7901822

 

They tend to drop out of the election. It's not the only study. In fact, pretty much everything I found on this subject supports the basic hypothesis: the more negative a campaign is, the less likely women are to turn out.

 

Now, unless you are an unmitigated moron, you can see where this is headed: Both Clinton and Trump are going out of their way to run a negative campaign. Clinton is doing it because, let's be honest, she literally has nothing else to say. Trump has been doing it because he's not going to take schit from anyone.

 

But, I think a serious miscalculation is happening here: The more women that give up on the election due to abnormal negativity, the less likely Clinton is to win. Clinton cannot win without women, turned out in significant #s to counter the negative gap she has with men.

 

So, you take these 2 concepts together and you get: Clinton is killing her own turnout by making this a totally negative race, while, Trump benefits by engaging more men the more negative things get. It's early, but, if Clinton continues on her current path: to make this the most negative campaign in history? The research says: Trump should absolutely oblige her, and then kick her ass with his massive male gender gap.

[/dev/null]

But your polling methods are also flawed as they do not capture key Democratic voting blocs such as illegal immigrants, felons, and dead people