Optimism - or lack thereof

[Chilly]

Hit me with your scenario. I am open to find a way to get there.

 

If they fix: The complete lack of buy-in, trying to mix schemes leading to a cluster of a defensive scheme, Bill Polian and others talking about how it takes a year to learn the defense, and injuries to key guys like Kyle Williams and Aaron Williams, it could be better even with similar or worse talent.

At the end of the game which team wins? The DVOA team or the team that gave up less points? Geez.

 

Do you believe that defenses in the NFL aren't affected by what happens during the time they aren't on the field?

Edited August 8, 2016 by Chilly

[CardinalScotts]

Lawson for Lawson : Manny playing for Shaq is a push at this point in Shaq's career maybe even a slight lean towards Manny

Spikes/hawthorne, brown for Ragland : Subbing is what Rex does well, they will cover for him, I'm not sure Spikes has a lot left but I do like Hawthorne. Text book run fill guy but is flexible having played MIK and outside.

 

I'm more disappointed the top 2 picks both are injured but I'm not anywhere near despair. Year two with same guys they will be fine

[hondo in seattle]

Lawson for Lawson : Manny playing for Shaq is a push at this point in Shaq's career maybe even a slight lean towards Manny

Spikes/hawthorne, brown for Ragland : Subbing is what Rex does well, they will cover for him, I'm not sure Spikes has a lot left but I do like Hawthorne. Text book run fill guy but is flexible having played MIK and outside.

 

I'm more disappointed the top 2 picks both are injured but I'm not anywhere near despair. Year two with same guys they will be fine

 

Sums up my own thinking pretty accurately.

 

I hope both Shaq and Reggie recover quickly and excel this year. But while they sit, I think we're fine. Both are rookies, after all.

[4merper4mer]

Well projected success over the course of a year would probably be better suited to DVOA vs. the Points allowed number that doesn't take into account for field position, turnovers, etc.

If DVOA projected success for Rex's last 6 defenses, then it projected poorly.....because they all failed.

[dave mcbride]

At the end of the game which team wins? The DVOA team or the team that gave up less points? Geez.

You're changing the subject from defensive performance to overall team performance. No one is arguing that the Jets had a good offense.

If DVOA projected success for Rex's last 6 defenses, then it projected poorly.....because they all failed.

I suggest digging a little deeper and investigating what DVOA actually is rather than figuratively yelling "SCOREBOARD!!" and thinking you can end the conversation like that. The Jets had a terrible offense. No one is disputing that.

Edited August 8, 2016 by dave mcbride

[jimmy10]

I'm more disappointed the top 2 picks both are injured but I'm not anywhere near despair. Year two with same guys they will be fine

 

Right there with you bro. And how often do rookies have a slam-bam kickass first year anyway? It's a bummer, yeah, but looking at it long-term, those guys each have the potential to be studs.

 

Year two of Tyrod. Rex having the entire defense on the same page, WITH buy-in. Plenty of reason for optimism. I'm good.

[4merper4mer]

You're changing the subject from defensive performance to overall team performance. No one is arguing that the Jets had a good offense.

 

I suggest digging a little deeper and investigating what DVOA actually is rather than figuratively yelling "SCOREBOARD!!" and thinking you can end the conversation like that. The Jets had a terrible offense. No one is disputing that.

I didn't dispute that the Jets had a bad offense. They also had a bad defense and a really bad coach. Using weird numbers to try to claim the sky is red and the Jets had a good defense is folly. I realize people want to think we can win with Rex but we can't. Nobody can.

[dave mcbride]

I didn't dispute that the Jets had a bad offense. They also had a bad defense and a really bad coach. Using weird numbers to try to claim the sky is red and the Jets had a good defense is folly. I realize people want to think we can win with Rex but we can't. Nobody can.

They aren't "weird" numbers. Again, I suggest investigating what DVOA actually is. It makes a lot of sense, at least to me.

 

I'm not saying Ryan is a good coach. In fact, I'm pretty down on him. But it is possible to oversee good defenses while being a below-average coach overall. That's where I think you're misinterpreting me. I'm not trying to defend Ryan, who I don't like; I'm trying to defend facts.

 

I don't see the Bills winning 8 games this year. The only way they do is if the QB plays lights out. I hope he does, but I'm not optimistic.

Edited August 8, 2016 by dave mcbride

[eball]

Consider this one of the oh so few times that I actually disagree with you, but here goes:

 

Rex took a talented, aggressive defensive defense and turned it into a bunch of weak sisters, undisciplined to boot. They went from 54 to 21 sacks with talented pass rushers. It was a disgrace.

 

Kyle and Aaron Williams are mentioned above. Kyle has taken a huge beating season after season. If he can hold up that would be great, but I wouldn't be 100% shocked if he is cut. I don't predict it mind you, but it wouldn't shock me. As for AW, any production from him would be a bonus. His injuries sounded serious, and frankly dangerous. Now, we lost our top 2 draft picks. When the contact starts, it's going to be an ugly, sad situation. I see no hope for this defense. Zero.

 

I do however think we are on the same page wrt Tyrod. I think he really is the only hope right now for this team, and I hope they lock him into a long term contract. He brings another dimension to the team and I personally think he will even improve. I hope the receivers not named Watson get better, and this includes the perhaps fragile Clay.

 

Once Rex and Whaley are fired, I will feel a lot better about the Bills.

 

You're better than this, Bill. Express your concerns, fine, but that's simply an outrageous statement.

[Nihilarian]

 

If they fix: The complete lack of buy-in, trying to mix schemes leading to a cluster of a defensive scheme, Bill Polian and others talking about how it takes a year to learn the defense, and injuries to key guys like Kyle Williams and Aaron Williams, it could be better even with similar or worse talent.

 

Do you believe that defenses in the NFL aren't affected by what happens during the time they aren't on the field?

The 2009 NY Jets didn't need a year to learn Ryan's defense as they were #1 almost right away and they had less talent! The problems for the 2015 Buffalo Bills occurred when you look at the player personnel on the roster for the D-line and the scheme they were being asked to run. You didn't read about any Jets players complaining about how they were being used because they were used to playing in a similar scheme.

 

The Bills prior to 2015 were about the best player prepared 4-3 defense in the league and those Bills D-linemen were among the highest paid players in the league because they rushed the passer so well. There was a direct reason as to why the Bills were first in sacks for two years in different schemes and suddenly went to just about last in sacks! Mike Pettine ran a 3-4 one gap scheme in 2013 and Jim Schwartz ran a wide nine 4-3 scheme in 2014.

 

In comes a 3-4 run stopping two-gap coach in Rex Ryan and everything on that D-line changes. So instead of simply rushing the passer they were being asked to control the gaps. Which means that the D-line players this year had to wait to see what the offensive play was and where it was going before they could react instead of just cutting loose in going after the QB.

 

Switching the defense to a 3-4 and running mostly a two-gap run stopping scheme took its toll on the entire defense because now the DB's are being asked to cover longer because of little or no pass rush. News flash, the team drafted players that fit that 3-4 this past draft so we can all expect more of what we saw last year...only the teams best pass rusher is now a Dolphin. Some fans think that is a good thing, unless of course the dolphins use him as a pass rusher and not a gap control DE who drops into pass coverage.

 

The Bills still don't have the player personnel for the D-line on the roster needed to make that two-gap scheme work. Just so you guys know, it takes stronger, bigger, bulkier players to be able to control the two gaps and also control those huge offensive linemen rather than just trying to slip by them as a pass rusher.

 

 

So many fans simply don't get what i'm talking about here so allow me to perhaps simplify it in a better way.

 

Most NFL defensive lines utilize the one-gap technique. That means each D-lineman is responsible for a gap between two O-linemen and his job is to get in and through that gap and cause havoc in the backfield.

 

The Rex Ryan Bills usually prefer their D-linemen to read and react to the play by controlling the O-lineman in front of them and being responsible for the gap on either side of him. The benefit of this approach is that you keep the play in front of you and you usually free up the LBs to clean up the play by preventing the OLs from getting their hands on the LBs. This isn't to say the Bills never have their DL one gap, but that the more common technique they use is two-gapping.

 

Bottom line here is that unless Rex Ryan stops attepmting to put a square peg into a round hole and utilize the players currently on his roster then the defense won't be better than last year and it may be much worse with only one real pass rusher as the rest are being asked to control their gaps.

[Ronin]

If they fix: The complete lack of buy-in, trying to mix schemes leading to a cluster of a defensive scheme, Bill Polian and others talking about how it takes a year to learn the defense, and injuries to key guys like Kyle Williams and Aaron Williams, it could be better even with similar or worse talent.

 

You do realize how non-specific and absurdly broad that response is, don't you?

 

"If", with absolutely nothing concrete that this the case yet and with an extraordinarily thin line likely being the barrier between a lack of buy-in and buy-in, then a statement about a system that isn't even in place this season as Ryan has stated quite clearly that it will be different (again) this year rendering the boomerang effect on your response, and then "Could" while admitting that the talent is no better and likely worse than it was last season.

 

You essentially just validated OldTimer1960's OP.

 

Why not just say that if flying monkeys come shooting out of Ryan's ass on our season opener than we can expect good things.

Edited August 8, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[Malazan]

They aren't "weird" numbers. Again, I suggest investigating what DVOA actually is. It makes a lot of sense, at least to me.

 

All numbers that aren't as simple as the score are weird to a select few on this board.

[John from Riverside]

 

You do realize how non-specific and absurdly broad that response is, don't you?

 

"If", with absolutely nothing concrete that this the case yet and with an extraordinarily thin line likely being the barrier between a lack of buy-in and buy-in, then a statement about a system that isn't even in place this season as Ryan has stated quite clearly that it will be different (again) this year rendering the boomerang effect on your response, and then "Could" while admitting that the talent is no better and likely worse than it was last season.

 

You essentially just validated OldTimer1960's OP.

 

Why not just say that if flying monkeys come shooting out of Ryan's ass on our season opener than we can expect good things.

Show me where talent is worse then last season

 

I will wait

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Maybe you are thinking dominant. I didn't say dominant, I said competent.

A competent defense knows the playbook and is, perhaps, somewhat better than average. A dominant defense excels. There's no logical reason to feel this defense will excel based on current circumstances.

[John from Riverside]

A competent defense knows the playbook and is, perhaps, somewhat better than average. A dominant defense excels. There's no logical reason to feel this defense will excel based on current circumstances.

No reason to think they wont either

[That's No Moon]

Offensively I see some reason for optimism but it comes with many assumptions such as health. I am extremely concerned about RT and T depth in general.

 

Defensively I'm struggling to see how they are better other than they have another year in the scheme. Lawson and Ragland out hurts a lot. Spikes wasn't great 2 years ago, as Ragland's replacement, and Ryan said re: Zach Brown that he's essentially too light in the arse for his liking. I get that you play personnel packages but we unfortunately have to go through New England to do anything meaningful and they have made it abundantly clear over many years that they will speed up their game to prevent you from subbing in packages. We're have 2 good corners but #3 is a big question - our current #3 is a very small person. At safety I see nothing but giant question marks.

[eball]

Offensively I see some reason for optimism but it comes with many assumptions such as health. I am extremely concerned about RT and T depth in general.

 

Defensively I'm struggling to see how they are better other than they have another year in the scheme. Lawson and Ragland out hurts a lot. Spikes wasn't great 2 years ago, as Ragland's replacement, and Ryan said re: Zach Brown that he's essentially too light in the arse for his liking. I get that you play personnel packages but we unfortunately have to go through New England to do anything meaningful and they have made it abundantly clear over many years that they will speed up their game to prevent you from subbing in packages. We're have 2 good corners but #3 is a big question - our current #3 is a very small person. At safety I see nothing but giant question marks.

 

There are reasonable, optimistic counterpoints to your concerns, but I won't waste time on them here. We'll find out soon enough.

[John from Riverside]

Offensively I see some reason for optimism but it comes with many assumptions such as health. I am extremely concerned about RT and T depth in general.

 

Defensively I'm struggling to see how they are better other than they have another year in the scheme. Lawson and Ragland out hurts a lot. Spikes wasn't great 2 years ago, as Ragland's replacement, and Ryan said re: Zach Brown that he's essentially too light in the arse for his liking. I get that you play personnel packages but we unfortunately have to go through New England to do anything meaningful and they have made it abundantly clear over many years that they will speed up their game to prevent you from subbing in packages. We're have 2 good corners but #3 is a big question - our current #3 is a very small person. At safety I see nothing but giant question marks.

- I would also like to see a 3rd OT that I am confident....but we are in fact talking about a THIRD OT on a team that led the league in rushing last year.

 

- Spikes wasnt great 2 years ago? I thought what he did (you have to understand he is a 2 down guy) superbly. He was a real beast of a stack and shed run stop linebacker.

 

- When did Rex say that about Zach brown? I dont remember reading that.

 

- Folks need to understand....NOBODY was having any consistant success against the patriots last year.....we need to stop beating up our team when most of the other teams also had the same problems.

 

- Our corners are really good.....better then most of the league....if finding a 3rd corner is our biggest problem there we are in good shape.

 

- Aaron Williams back is a big plus.....Meatball provides leadership......Mario Williams locker room lawyer is gone......Tyrod Taylor looking good

 

There is a lot to like about this team

[That's No Moon]

 

There are reasonable, optimistic counterpoints to your concerns, but I won't waste time on them here. We'll find out soon enough.

You're right, there are, and typically this is the time of year where I talk myself into believing them I'm having a really hard time getting there and the run of bad luck/stupidity to start the year hasn't helped. Lawson hurt, Other Lawson hurt lifting, Glenn rolled up in a scrimmage, Ragland hurt without contact, Karlos fat, Karlos suspended, Williams DUI. Feels like the other shoe is waiting to drop at any moment.

[Dorkington]

Average offense, and below average defense (at times) doesn't make for a lot of success. On paper the team didn't get much better if at all. Some would argue our schedule is more difficult this year. So we're going to rely on injury luck, improved coaching, and improved player performance. Which is hard to rally behind considering our history.

 

I'm keeping my expectations lower than last year's record, and my hopes higher than last year's record.