A quick look at the Bills future cap spend

[ALF]

Does anyone know what

Est. Cap Space (All): $-8,072,246 2016 means for the Bills ?

Do they have to cut that much before start of season ?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/

[thebandit27]

 

Does anyone know what

Est. Cap Space (All): $-8,072,246 2016 means for the Bills ?

Do they have to cut that much before start of season ?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/

 

 

No.

 

It's meaningless as a practical matter, as all it tells you is how much money the team has committed in contracts to it's 90-man roster (plus players on NFI list etc.).

 

The only important number is the top-51.

[Cover 1]

Great stuff!!!

[thebandit27]

A lot of discussion on the Bills' present and future cap possibilities in this thread too:

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/183724-spotrac-manage-roster-tool-2016-bills-salary-cap/

[GunnerBill]

I think he is as good as gone. Cant sign all of your marque guys..and they way the entire Bills brass was praising that Seymour(sp) kid this spring, think the writing is on the wall.

had to be structured that way so Miami could not match. Clay was not a UFA..

 

I disagree I think they will sign Gilmore.

 

As for clay..... the Bills didn't have to sign him. Rate him as a player, and the year by year cap hits are not silly.... the guaranteed money is and it basically guarantees that he sees out his contract unless his knee is as bad as some rumours suggest in which case we are paying him for nothing.

[thebandit27]

Here's my evaluation:

 

Let's first assume that the 2017 Salary Cap increases by $10M from the 2016 cap, and thus a cap of ~$165M. This leaves the Bills ~$31M under the cap with 54 players under contract.

 

Assumed Cuts (players that are very likely to be gone)

Kyle Williams - saves $6.8M

Corey Graham - saves $3.775M

 

Very Possible Cuts (players that could easily be let go without much loss in on-field production)

Jerome Felton - saves $1.2M

Marcus Easley - saves $1.025M

Cyrus Kouandjio - saves $1.08M

 

Difficult Cuts (cuts that would save significant cap room, but would adversely affect on-field production)

Eric Wood - saves $4.525M

Nickell Robey - saves $1.625M

 

For now, I'll move forward as though the "Assumed" and "Very Possible" cuts go through, but that the "Difficult" cuts don't happen. This results in an additional $13.88M in cap room, so we're talking about approximately $45M in cap space with 49 players under contract.

 

Let's first assume $6.5M to get 2017 draft picks under contract. Then assume that, of the team's RFAs, they'll want to tender offers to Gillislee, Schmidt, Enemkpali, and Groy. Each should get the lowest tender, which will be somewhere around $1.75M (5% increase from 2016); that's another $7M. In total, draft picks and RFA contracts bring the Bills' total cap space down to ~$31.5M.

 

UFAs That Will Likely Re-Sign Cheap

Zach Brown

Chris Gragg

Fernando Velasco

Sterling Moore or Corey White

Greg Salas

 

Figure another $3.5M for the above; we're down to $28M.

 

UFAs That Will Walk

Manny Lawson

Corbin Bryant

Jordan Mills

Robert Woods

 

Tyrod and Gilmore

 

Here's my shot at the contracts to keep both...

 

Gilmore:

 

5 years, $66.5M, $32M guaranteed

Year Base Signing Roster Cap Hit Dead Hit Savings

2016 $11M (gtd) $3M -- $14M $32M -$18M

2017 $6M (gtd) $3M -- $9M $18M -$9M

2018 $8M $3M $1.5M $12.5M $9M $3.5M

2019 $10M $3M $1.5M $14.5M $6M $8.5M

2020 $12M $3M $1.5M $16.5M $3M $13.5M

 

Tyrod:

5-year, $100M, $40M guaranteed
Base Signing Total Dead
2017 8 8 16 40
2018 9 8 17 32
2019 12 8 20 24
2020 14 8 22 16
2021 17 8 25 8

 

The above leaves $3M available for UFAs from outside the organization. The needs will likely be RT, WR, DL, and S. If we assume that two of those needs can be filled in the draft, then that $3M will need to go toward filling the other 2 needs.

 

Sorry for the novel.

[Beef Jerky]

I think Kyle takes a big pay cut and becomes a depth rotational player next season. If we make the playoffs I think he will want to be on he team for one more year.

 

 

This is if he comes back from his injury this year and plays well. I have no reason to believe he won't though b.c he always gives it his all and his football intelligence will help.

[Blokestradamus]

Sorry for the novel.

 

Don't apologise, it was a pretty wonderful attempt. The numbers might be a little different as the starting point but $31m is a fair assumption (I'd anticipate a little more).

 

I think that the majority of those cuts might happen. Seymour as a gunner might make Easley expendable. Cyrus if Seantrel's health holds up, maybe SH retiring if not. I like the structure of the Gilmore deal to get the bulk of the guaranteed money out of the way early.

 

It's not going to leave a lot for the rest but I'd rather not worry about QB/CB for a long time.

[Kirby Jackson]

Here's my evaluation:

 

Let's first assume that the 2017 Salary Cap increases by $10M from the 2016 cap, and thus a cap of ~$165M. This leaves the Bills ~$31M under the cap with 54 players under contract.

 

Assumed Cuts (players that are very likely to be gone)

Kyle Williams - saves $6.8M

Corey Graham - saves $3.775M

 

Very Possible Cuts (players that could easily be let go without much loss in on-field production)

Jerome Felton - saves $1.2M

Marcus Easley - saves $1.025M

Cyrus Kouandjio - saves $1.08M

 

Difficult Cuts (cuts that would save significant cap room, but would adversely affect on-field production)

Eric Wood - saves $4.525M

Nickell Robey - saves $1.625M

 

For now, I'll move forward as though the "Assumed" and "Very Possible" cuts go through, but that the "Difficult" cuts don't happen. This results in an additional $13.88M in cap room, so we're talking about approximately $45M in cap space with 49 players under contract.

 

Let's first assume $6.5M to get 2017 draft picks under contract. Then assume that, of the team's RFAs, they'll want to tender offers to Gillislee, Schmidt, Enemkpali, and Groy. Each should get the lowest tender, which will be somewhere around $1.75M (5% increase from 2016); that's another $7M. In total, draft picks and RFA contracts bring the Bills' total cap space down to ~$31.5M.

 

UFAs That Will Likely Re-Sign Cheap

Zach Brown

Chris Gragg

Fernando Velasco

Sterling Moore or Corey White

Greg Salas

 

Figure another $3.5M for the above; we're down to $28M.

 

UFAs That Will Walk

Manny Lawson

Corbin Bryant

Jordan Mills

Robert Woods

 

Tyrod and Gilmore

 

Here's my shot at the contracts to keep both...

 

Gilmore:

 

5 years, $66.5M, $32M guaranteed

Year Base Signing Roster Cap Hit Dead Hit Savings

2016 $11M (gtd) $3M -- $14M $32M -$18M

2017 $6M (gtd) $3M -- $9M $18M -$9M

2018 $8M $3M $1.5M $12.5M $9M $3.5M

2019 $10M $3M $1.5M $14.5M $6M $8.5M

2020 $12M $3M $1.5M $16.5M $3M $13.5M

 

Tyrod:

5-year, $100M, $40M guaranteed

Base Signing Total Dead

2017 8 8 16 40

2018 9 8 17 32

2019 12 8 20 24

2020 14 8 22 16

2021 17 8 25 8

 

The above leaves $3M available for UFAs from outside the organization. The needs will likely be RT, WR, DL, and S. If we assume that two of those needs can be filled in the draft, then that $3M will need to go toward filling the other 2 needs.

 

Sorry for the novel.

Great stuff Bandit!!

 

I will add my offseason wish list to it. First in FA, I would try to add Ryan Schraeder to play RT. He will eat up most of that $3M (but I am counting on some restructures as well). I would LOVE to add Tony Jefferson too (but don't know if it is realistic). I'd probably open another $2.4M by getting rid of Carpenter & another $1.5M with Robey. If I could walk out of FA with those 2 I would be thrilled!!

 

Now that you have RT and S set you are going into the draft needing DL & WR which have been 2 deep positions in recent years. As of now give me Malachi Dupree/Mike Williams in the 1st and Lowell Lotulelei in the 2nd. You would have your NT and can play Dareus and Adolphus Washington as the 3-4 DEs. I'd probably try to draft the kicker from Utah as well.

 

Your 2017 lineup:

QB - Tyrod

RB - McCoy

WR - Sammy

WR2- Malachi Dupree/Mike Williams

WR3- Dez Lewis

LT - Glenn

LG - Incognito

C - Wood

RG - Miller

RT - Schraeder

TE - Clay

 

DE - Dareus

NT - Lotulelei

DE - Washington

OLB - Hughes

MLB - Brown

MLB - Ragland

OLB - Shaq

CB - Gilmore

S - Aaron Williams

S - Tony Jefferson

CB - Darby

 

LS - Sanborn

P - Schmidt

K - Andy Phillips

Edited July 20, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

 

Gilmore:

 

5 years, $66.5M, $32M guaranteed

Year Base Signing Roster Cap Hit Dead Hit Savings

2016 $11M (gtd) $3M -- $14M $32M -$18M

2017 $6M (gtd) $3M -- $9M $18M -$9M

2018 $8M $3M $1.5M $12.5M $9M $3.5M

2019 $10M $3M $1.5M $14.5M $6M $8.5M

2020 $12M $3M $1.5M $16.5M $3M $13.5M

 

 

 

Mine was:

 

5 years, $69m with $34m guaranteed ($13.8m p/y average) broken down like:

 

$20million signing bonus spread over 5 years

 

2016 - Base: $10m; Signing Bonus $4m - Cap Hit: $14m ($14m guaranteed)

2017 - Base: $7m; Signing Bonus $4m - Cap Hit: $11m ($8m guaranteed)

2018 - Base: $8m; Signing Bonus $4m - Cap Hit: $12m ($6m guaranteed)

2019 - Base: $10m; Signing Bonus $4m - Cap Hit: $14m ($4m guaranteed)

2020 - Base: $14m; Signing Bonus $4m - Cap Hit: $18m ($4m guaranteed)

 

Pretty similar.

[thebandit27]

Great stuff Bandit!!

 

I will add my offseason wish list to it. First in FA, I would try to add Ryan Schraeder to play RT. He will eat up most of that $3M (but I am counting on some restructures as well). I would LOVE to add Tony Jefferson too (but don't know if it is realistic). I'd probably open another $2.4M by getting rid of Carpenter & another $1.5M with Robey. If I could walk out of FA with those 2 I would be thrilled!!

 

Now that you have RT and S set you are going into the draft needing DL & WR which have been 2 deep positions in recent years. As of now give me Malachi Dupree/Mike Williams in the 1st and Lowell Lotulelei in the 2nd. You would have your NT and can play Dareus and Adolphus Washington as the 3-4 DEs. I'd probably try to draft the kicker from Utah as well.

 

Your 2017lineup:

QB - Tyrod

RB - McCoy

WR - Sammy

WR2- Malachi Dupree/Mike Williams

WR3- Dez Lewis

LT - Glenn

LG - Incognito

C - Wood

RG - Miller

RT - Schraeder

TE - Clay

 

DE - Dareus

NT - Lotulelei

DE - Washington

OLB - Hughes

MLB - Brown

MLB - Ragland

OLB - Shaq

CB - Gilmore

S - Aaron Williams

S - Tony Jefferson

CB - Darby

 

LS - Sanborn

P - Schmidt

K - Andy Phillips

 

I'd sign up for that right now. I do think it's more likely that it's WR/S in the draft's top 2 rounds, with NT being addressed a bit later, but nevertheless, I like that approach.

 

Don't apologise, it was a pretty wonderful attempt. The numbers might be a little different as the starting point but $31m is a fair assumption (I'd anticipate a little more).

 

I think that the majority of those cuts might happen. Seymour as a gunner might make Easley expendable. Cyrus if Seantrel's health holds up, maybe SH retiring if not. I like the structure of the Gilmore deal to get the bulk of the guaranteed money out of the way early.

 

It's not going to leave a lot for the rest but I'd rather not worry about QB/CB for a long time.

 

Agreed on all.

[John from Riverside]

Here's my evaluation:

 

Let's first assume that the 2017 Salary Cap increases by $10M from the 2016 cap, and thus a cap of ~$165M. This leaves the Bills ~$31M under the cap with 54 players under contract.

 

Assumed Cuts (players that are very likely to be gone)

Kyle Williams - saves $6.8M

Corey Graham - saves $3.775M

 

Very Possible Cuts (players that could easily be let go without much loss in on-field production)

Jerome Felton - saves $1.2M

Marcus Easley - saves $1.025M

Cyrus Kouandjio - saves $1.08M

 

Difficult Cuts (cuts that would save significant cap room, but would adversely affect on-field production)

Eric Wood - saves $4.525M

Nickell Robey - saves $1.625M

 

For now, I'll move forward as though the "Assumed" and "Very Possible" cuts go through, but that the "Difficult" cuts don't happen. This results in an additional $13.88M in cap room, so we're talking about approximately $45M in cap space with 49 players under contract.

 

Let's first assume $6.5M to get 2017 draft picks under contract. Then assume that, of the team's RFAs, they'll want to tender offers to Gillislee, Schmidt, Enemkpali, and Groy. Each should get the lowest tender, which will be somewhere around $1.75M (5% increase from 2016); that's another $7M. In total, draft picks and RFA contracts bring the Bills' total cap space down to ~$31.5M.

 

UFAs That Will Likely Re-Sign Cheap

Zach Brown

Chris Gragg

Fernando Velasco

Sterling Moore or Corey White

Greg Salas

 

Figure another $3.5M for the above; we're down to $28M.

 

UFAs That Will Walk

Manny Lawson

Corbin Bryant

Jordan Mills

Robert Woods

 

Tyrod and Gilmore

 

Here's my shot at the contracts to keep both...

 

Gilmore:

 

5 years, $66.5M, $32M guaranteed

Year Base Signing Roster Cap Hit Dead Hit Savings

2016 $11M (gtd) $3M -- $14M $32M -$18M

2017 $6M (gtd) $3M -- $9M $18M -$9M

2018 $8M $3M $1.5M $12.5M $9M $3.5M

2019 $10M $3M $1.5M $14.5M $6M $8.5M

2020 $12M $3M $1.5M $16.5M $3M $13.5M

 

Tyrod:

5-year, $100M, $40M guaranteed

Base Signing Total Dead

2017 8 8 16 40

2018 9 8 17 32

2019 12 8 20 24

2020 14 8 22 16

2021 17 8 25 8

 

The above leaves $3M available for UFAs from outside the organization. The needs will likely be RT, WR, DL, and S. If we assume that two of those needs can be filled in the draft, then that $3M will need to go toward filling the other 2 needs.

 

Sorry for the novel.

No more of this please......(by that I mean please keep it coming)

 

I think there are a couple of those guys that will restructure to stay because they are a. Still productive and b. Getting long in the tooth. Corey Graham for instance.......if he can show quality safety play this year next to Aaron Williams.

 

I hate it but the more I look at it I think Woods is definately gone....so I am hoping one of these young bucks (who we can have on a cheap contract) shows big this year.

 

Felton is actually a bigger part of the bills offense then people realize.....so unless we are going to get someone to replace what is probably the best fullback in the league I dont know we part with him.

 

Manny Lawson always seems to stick....and we always seem to need him....I wonder if because of the Shaq Lawson situation we dont work that contract to keep him one more year.....he really isnt making that much.

Edited July 20, 2016 by John from Hemet

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I'd sign up for that right now. I do think it's more likely that it's WR/S in the draft's top 2 rounds, with NT being addressed a bit later, but nevertheless, I like that approach.

Yeah, it is a touch early for a NT maybe but he is a stud with a good pedigree. He has been a guy that frees up the LBs. I am not sure that guy is on the roster now (besides Dareus).

 

I wouldn't hate S early. I LOVE the kid at LSU (although I love most of their roster this year).

[Luxy312]

Yeah, it is a touch early for a NT maybe but he is a stud with a good pedigree. He has been a guy that frees up the LBs. I am not sure that guy is on the roster now (besides Dareus).

 

I wouldn't hate S early. I LOVE the kid at LSU (although I love most of their roster this year).

 

Don't go to sleep yet on T.J. Barnes. He's a bit raw and somewhat of a project, but he comes in at 6-7 and 364. He absolutely occupies the space in the middle. I don't think he can be a starter right now, but I do think it gives them situational flexibility to move Dareus to the outside. Can't wait to see him in training camp.

[thebandit27]

Yeah, it is a touch early for a NT maybe but he is a stud with a good pedigree. He has been a guy that frees up the LBs. I am not sure that guy is on the roster now (besides Dareus).

 

I wouldn't hate S early. I LOVE the kid at LSU (although I love most of their roster this year).

 

It's very early yet, but give me Tony Conner (if he's healthy) in round 1 and Cooper Kupp in round 2 and I'll call it a successful draft.

 

 

Don't go to sleep yet on T.J. Barnes. He's a bit raw and somewhat of a project, but he comes in at 6-7 and 364. He absolutely occupies the space in the middle. I don't think he can be a starter right now, but I do think it gives them situational flexibility to move Dareus to the outside. Can't wait to see him in training camp.

 

Unless he's improved dramatically, I think Barnes is an easy cut. He looked way out of place last year, and the fact that they tried him at OL in OTAs and minicamp tells me that they don't really see much of a future for him at NT.

 

Of course, I could be mistaken.

[Blokestradamus]

I've got a 2017 provisional roster together (this is my guesswork, don't go quoting me). Missing starters are QB, CB1, RT, WR2, P. Depth required at WR (1), TE (2), G/C (min 1), DL (2), ILB (2), OLB (1), Slot CB, FS, SS. Some of the backups might get new deals after the season that will shift numbers around. Remember, guesswork.

 

So, that's a total of 31 players under contract at a cost of $121.25m (plus any dead money from cutting to 53 in 2016). If the cap goes up like it did last year, it might be in the $165-167m range. Giving the Bills roughly $43-45 million in cap room. We've also got 7 draft picks (plus a pending comp pick for Bradham) to account for. Around $6m seems sensible (we know Doug isn't sitting still with those).

Edited July 20, 2016 by Blokestradamus

[Maddog69]

H2O- not a bad take. Gilmore is going to get signed. They know they need him, and will have the money. TT depends on his play but can make it work with the proper production.

 

Woods is in a prove it year as well. If he has his best year ever, he could garner a decent contact. If he plays avg. again, he'll walk, but that then places pressure to pick a WR in the 1st round in 2017. I have no idea the depth next year at WR. We'll also need a safety and an O-Lineman.

Oh and Bloke, thanks for the article. Very well written, and you always make good points here. Appreciate it.

I hope you're right about Gilmore getting signed. I just don't see it happening. He wants top dollar and I don't see the bills giving that to him. If he were to sign for $13-14m per year, a deal would happen but I believe he wants $15+. My expectation is for the Bills to let this year play out. If Gilmore stays healthy and plays well, they will tag him for 1 year and then let him walk.

[Luxy312]

 

It's very early yet, but give me Tony Conner (if he's healthy) in round 1 and Cooper Kupp in round 2 and I'll call it a successful draft.

 

 

Unless he's improved dramatically, I think Barnes is an easy cut. He looked way out of place last year, and the fact that they tried him at OL in OTAs and minicamp tells me that they don't really see much of a future for him at NT.

 

Of course, I could be mistaken.

 

I wasn't aware they tried him on the OL. That's interesting. I'm honestly still quite baffled with why the team is keeping Dareus in the middle. He's shown that he can get to quarterbacks. Paying $100m contract to a 3-technique NT seems rather pointless to me. But what do I know?

[thebandit27]

 

I wasn't aware they tried him on the OL. That's interesting. I'm honestly still quite baffled with why the team is keeping Dareus in the middle. He's shown that he can get to quarterbacks. Paying $100m contract to a 3-technique NT seems rather pointless to me. But what do I know?

 

I think you mean a 1-technique, but yeah, if that's the only role he had, I'd agree.

 

I think you're going to see a lot of moving chess pieces up front this year. Dareus will play 1-tech, 0-tech, and then he'll move from the 3 all the way out to the 5. I think the same will be done with Kyle and Washington as well. Bryant has also shown that kind of versatility.