Blokestradamus Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 I was doing some early research into the cap issues that face the Bills in the near future. Robyn Mundy asked me to write something on the subject of future spend. About 1800 words later, I came up with this - http://buffalofambase.org/2016/07/19/bills-salary-cap-primer/ A look at minimum open market expectations for some pending free agents, at a couple of under-performing players fearing the axe and a couple of grisled vets that might be looking over their shoulder.
section122 Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 I think you are right on Woods. I don't see any way that the Bills will pay him what he can fetch on the open market. He will be looking at least at a Sanu contract as you said and that is out of the Bills price range. I'm thinking the Bills will move on from Woods, Lawson, Carpenter/Gay, Felton. Then a restructure or release of Graham/KW. Draft will likely be OT/WR and Gilmore/TT get re-signed.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 I don't think we can keep gilmore without a tag. We'll need TT under contract to do that, and for that deal to be cap friendly (which it probably won't be). As much as i like gilmore - I would draft another corner and move on. QB is the priority 100%.
H2o Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 (edited) Great read my friend. I too believe that Woods will get paid money we won't try to offer and head for another city. I also mentioned Kyle as a possible cap casualty, even this season, before. Gilmore.... I don't see him as a must to re-sign, but it would be a good move. I can't see us giving him 15 mill a year though. A Janoris Jenkins type of contract sounds about right, but I can see us giving him more guaranteed money say in the 35-40 mill range. TT is the one that hinges on the rest. If he comes through with a year showing growth on the field and taking that next step then he is going to cost a lot. Can't wait for the season to get here and see how this team and all of these players fare on the field. Edited July 19, 2016 by H2o
machine gun kelly Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 H2O- not a bad take. Gilmore is going to get signed. They know they need him, and will have the money. TT depends on his play but can make it work with the proper production. Woods is in a prove it year as well. If he has his best year ever, he could garner a decent contact. If he plays avg. again, he'll walk, but that then places pressure to pick a WR in the 1st round in 2017. I have no idea the depth next year at WR. We'll also need a safety and an O-Lineman. Oh and Bloke, thanks for the article. Very well written, and you always make good points here. Appreciate it.
John from Riverside Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 I am really hoping Dez Lewis takes that next step and provides us the buffer in case tough decisions have to be made. We need draft picks to replace certain positions so we can pay players that are at KEY positions.
GunnerBill Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 Agree exactly with Blokes' analysis. Gilmore is the one they need to sign they have so many options with Tyrod if they can get Gilmore sorted. Woods will be gone next year.
Blokestradamus Posted July 19, 2016 Author Posted July 19, 2016 Appreciate the kind words. I'm not the most cap-savvy guy but I hope I got my points across. I don't think we can keep gilmore without a tag. We'll need TT under contract to do that, and for that deal to be cap friendly (which it probably won't be). As much as i like gilmore - I would draft another corner and move on. QB is the priority 100%. If it does come down to choosing one or the other, I agree that QB has to be the priority (provided Tyrod doesn't regress). From what I can tell at this point, I think there's enough room for both of them if you structure the deals right (Gilmore front-loaded, Tyrod back-loaded). That won't leave much spending money for new players in FA but we won't have to worry about several cornerstone positions for a long time (QB, LT, DT, DE/OLB, CB all under long term deals). Sammy would be the next one and that's where it starts to get tricky (and where we start cursing that McCoy deal being so guarantee-heavy). Once you've got a QB taking up that much cap, it's imperative you draft well.
Beef Jerky Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 This just tells me Whaley's next few drafts better pan out. He will need to replace the talent he will be losing.
Blokestradamus Posted July 19, 2016 Author Posted July 19, 2016 (edited) This just tells me Whaley's next few drafts better pan out. He will need to replace the talent he will be losing. In the next draft, Whaley probably needs a starting WR, a starting RT and pass rush depth (at the very least). Maybe CB if Gilmore can't get done. The sort of positions that are salary-heavy on the open market. Edited July 19, 2016 by Blokestradamus
John from Riverside Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 In the next draft, Whaley probably needs a starting WR, a starting RT and pass rush depth (at the very least). Maybe CB if Gilmore can't get done. The sort of positions that are salary-heavy on the open market. That is a lot to ask for out of 1 draft What we really need is some projects we currently have on the team to pan out.....so that we can concentrate on those weak areas. For instance....wouldnt it be nice if Dez Lewis panned out......and became Sammy Watkins running mate or Wouldnt it be nice if Seymore ends up being a legit number 3 corner.....Gilmore got resigned.....and they didnt have have take a corner early so they were able to take a RT?
Blokestradamus Posted July 19, 2016 Author Posted July 19, 2016 That is a lot to ask for out of 1 draft What we really need is some projects we currently have on the team to pan out.....so that we can concentrate on those weak areas. For instance....wouldnt it be nice if Dez Lewis panned out......and became Sammy Watkins running mate or Wouldnt it be nice if Seymore ends up being a legit number 3 corner.....Gilmore got resigned.....and they didnt have have take a corner early so they were able to take a RT? It would be a godsend if Dez showed flashes of being a capable 2/3 this year. If Henderson or Kouandjio really shines in TC and preseason and unseats Mills. Even if guys like Justin Zimmer or Cedric Reed could show a little bit of promise on the DL. Bills fans are starting to face up to the reality that comes with a viable QB. That reality is that you will have holes and you have to fill them as cheaply (but effectively) as possible.
Dragonborn10 Posted July 20, 2016 Posted July 20, 2016 Signing Gilmore is the key to everything. Just pay him what he wants. Then you tag TT and all the rest of those players are gone including Woods and Kyle. They already drafted KW's replacement. They can find another WR to play second fiddle to Sammy. I doubt Kyle would take a big paycut to stay with the team, but that is the only way he is here in 2017. Hell another injury plagued 2016 and he will be cut for talent not just money.
GunnerBill Posted July 20, 2016 Posted July 20, 2016 (and where we start cursing that McCoy deal being so guarantee-heavy). More the Clay deal for me which is just way out of kilter in terms of guarantees for the position. There was a point before FA where he had a higher guaranteed % than all but one non-rookie deal player in the league. That is the kind of deal that you might do for Gronkowski but should not be done for any other tight end and can't be sanctioned once you are paying a QB.
Blokestradamus Posted July 20, 2016 Author Posted July 20, 2016 More the Clay deal for me which is just way out of kilter in terms of guarantees for the position. There was a point before FA where he had a higher guaranteed % than all but one non-rookie deal player in the league. That is the kind of deal that you might do for Gronkowski but should not be done for any other tight end and can't be sanctioned once you are paying a QB. That's very true. Like with McCoy, it seems like throwing money at it was the only way to get the deal done. Although I'm not as inclined to dislike it because, unlike McCoy, I think Clay is a perfect fit for what the Bills do. There's probably only 2 tight ends that would've come cheaper that fit the criteria (Martellus Bennett - needed a trade & Jermaine Gresham - had back surgery as a free agent). We're not getting out of the Clay deal until after 2018. I just hope that knee isn't as bad as some have speculated and he stays healthy enough to be productive. We're also still paying Chris Williams $1.75m this year. Without sounding like Comic Book Guy; WORST. CONTRACT. EVER!
8-8 Forever? Posted July 20, 2016 Posted July 20, 2016 this is all great and thanks, but the real analysis we need is how much cap space will the Bills realistically have next year,, that is the real question .. who gets cut or not is the usual TBD fodder; does anyone actually have the Bills committed cap number as of now and what the cap will be?
plenzmd1 Posted July 20, 2016 Posted July 20, 2016 Signing Gilmore is the key to everything. Just pay him what he wants. I think he is as good as gone. Cant sign all of your marque guys..and they way the entire Bills brass was praising that Seymour(sp) kid this spring, think the writing is on the wall. More the Clay deal for me which is just way out of kilter in terms of guarantees for the position. had to be structured that way so Miami could not match. Clay was not a UFA..
Blokestradamus Posted July 20, 2016 Author Posted July 20, 2016 (edited) this is all great and thanks, but the real analysis we need is how much cap space will the Bills realistically have next year,, that is the real question .. who gets cut or not is the usual TBD fodder; does anyone actually have the Bills committed cap number as of now and what the cap will be? Right now, it would be a lot of guesswork. We know that the Bills currently have about $134m on the books for 2017 but, as of right now, we don't know the 2017 cap figure and how much salary from 2016 they'll roll over. Of the 54 contracts that run into 2017, not all will make the cut when we cut down to a 53 man roster. It's impossible to know exact numbers without knowing who gets cut. If the 2017 cap is the same as the 2016 figure (it won't be), the Bills would currently have $21.2m in cap room for 2017 (that's with both Taylor & Gilmore not signed). The 2016 cap number went up about $12m and the bubble seems like it won't be bursting any time soon. I will try and come up with something a little more concrete when the 53 man roster gets announced. Edited July 20, 2016 by Blokestradamus
Dave in Avon Lake now Posted July 20, 2016 Posted July 20, 2016 Thanks for that last post as it really was what I was looking for. Next year could be difficult but not unmanageable especially if the cap rises. In my opinion, we should try to work out a cap friendly deal with Tyrod early and then see what we can do for Gilmore. His tag will be cheaper that Tyrod's and maybe we won't have to let too many players leave. I still like Woods and would like to see him stay as he has proven to be a great option for Tyrod if healthy.
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