Help from this draft-class is already fading (Williams DUI)

[YattaOkasan]

 

"We have mentioned a few times this offseason about DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins being notoriously poor in YAC, but thanks to adjusting for where the ball was thrown, they do not bring up the very rear of our YAC+ list. Still, it's not a strength in their games, although Watkins has more potential there."

So if we account for where they are thrown the ball they are so bad. Shocking. Also has dropped the conversation because you have been misleading at best.

[Ronin]

http://www.nfl.com/teams/injuries?team=BUF&week=4

 

http://www.nfl.com/teams/injuries?team=BUF&week=5

 

http://www.nfl.com/teams/injuries?team=BUF&week=6

 

http://www.nfl.com/teams/injuries?team=BUF&week=7

 

I stand corrected.

 

I'm not as worried about Shady anyway, Watkins I'm highly worried about. I'd put money on the notion that he'll miss a signfiicant number of games outright. The point on Shady is, entirely, that while we did lead the league in rushing, Karlos provided over 500 rushing yards, which is nothing to sneeze at. Granted, most of it was in three games, but still, those three games were all wins.

 

Without Watkins, I'll be stunned, if we finish any better than 30th in passing.

So if we account for where they are thrown the ball they are so bad. Shocking. Also has dropped the conversation because you have been misleading at best.

 

Your lack of cognizance on this issue is laughable.

[YattaOkasan]

 

Your lack of cognizance on this issue is laughable.

You own article said its not as bad as it appears because they get the ball thrown to them in places where YAC are not as readily available. Look at his YPR or YPT numbers they are very good.

[Ronin]

Taskers Ghost "I've even gotten several e-mails by people knowing that I'm active in this thread having a pretty good laugh.....not at me"

 

 

LOL

 

Believe it or not Billz, there are other groups and people that discuss football. TSW isn't the end-all-to-be-all in Bills much less overall football discussions. I deliberately have several, three to be precise, football e-mail groups wherein we exchange ideas and actually have good solid discussions without all of the nonsense, such as your post for a prime example, and have quite excellent exchanges featuring actual information and not just adolescent like tirades from cranky geriatrics that apparently have nothing better to do than to spend a couple of hours here daily.

 

Occasionally I'll even announce to them that I'm starting a thread. Most do not have accounts here, altho some do, one aforementioned in particular. But they do read. I must say, the reason why some don't have accounts here is exactly because of the nonsense that people can't seem to avoid posting as if anyone cares about their emotional dispositions.

 

Carry on.

Edited July 15, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[Kirby Jackson]

Without Watkins, I'll be stunned, if we finish any better than 30th in passing.

We kind of agree on something!!! This passing game will really, really struggle without Sammy. I think, besides Tyrod, he's the most indispensable player on the team. Glenn, Hughes, Dareus and the corners would be next in no particular order.

[YattaOkasan]

We kind of agree on something!!! This passing game will really, really struggle without Sammy. I think, besides Tyrod, he's the most indispensable player on the team. Glenn, Hughes, Dareus and the corners would be next in no particular order.

But there seems to be some cognitive dissonance here to me. Without Sammy were terrible yet hes not worth a 5th year option. I get that injuries is the crux of TG's argument but Sammy's only missed 3 games in 2 years.

[Ronin]

You own article said its not as bad as it appears because they get the ball thrown to them in places where YAC are not as readily available. Look at his YPR or YPT numbers they are very good.

 

Again, your lack of cognizance is stunning.

 

But allow me. Since, IMO, any dunderhead that knows football would have known, fully, that bubble screens in the NFL, plays that Sammy logged 60% of his yardage on in college, which means that it was almost all after the catch since bubble screens are thrown either behind or near the LoS, simply do not work in the NFL.

 

Yet, the draft substance on Watkins was about how he would rack up YAC. Of course many "astute" people ignored that clearly understandable info in declaring Watkins special long before he even got drafted. Unwisely naturally.

 

Watkins has had plenty of opportunity than to do more than finish 177th in YAC. The simple fact of the matter is that the speed of the game from NCAA to NFL is the difference here.

 

Rant as you like, all you do is offer an excuse for him. The bottom line is that Watkins isn't quite as "special" as the vast majority of poeple thought he was. Much like Spiller.

 

Good, yes. Exceptional, hardly. Factor in the injuries and he'll be fortunate if the team pays him 5th year option money in two seasons if he can't play 32 games this and next season.

[YattaOkasan]

 

Again, your lack of cognizance is stunning.

 

But allow me. Since, IMO, any dunderhead that knows football would have known, fully, that bubble screens in the NFL, plays that Sammy logged 60% of his yardage on in college, which means that it was almost all after the catch since bubble screens are thrown either behind or near the LoS, simply do not work in the NFL.

 

Yet, the draft substance on Watkins was about how he would rack up YAC. Of course many "astute" people ignored that clearly understandable info in declaring Watkins special long before he even got drafted. Unwisely naturally.

 

Watkins has had plenty of opportunity than to do more than finish 177th in YAC. The simple fact of the matter is that the speed of the game from NCAA to NFL is the difference here.

 

Rant as you like, all you do is offer an excuse for him. The bottom line is that Watkins isn't quite as "special" as the vast majority of poeple thought he was. Much like Spiller.

 

Good, yes. Exceptional, hardly. Factor in the injuries and he'll be fortunate if the team pays him 5th year option money in two seasons if he can't play 32 games this and next season.

He has not had plenty of opportunity to generate YAC because he doesn't get bubble screens in the NFL (much to mine and other chagrin).

You're right the draft was about his YAC, and he hasn't gotten it. But he has generated yards; so I'm happy.

Agree that hes only good at the moment, but factoring his age he is exceptional. If he plays 31 games is he worth the 5th year? Thats a tough line in the sand.

[26CornerBlitz]

He has not had plenty of opportunity to generate YAC because he doesn't get bubble screens in the NFL (much to mine and other chagrin).

You're right the draft was about his YAC, and he hasn't gotten it. But he has generated yards; so I'm happy.

Agree that hes only good at the moment, but factoring his age he is exceptional. If he plays 31 games is he worth the 5th year? Thats a tough line in the sand.

 

Bills Today: Watkins named a top 10 game breaker

[Ronin]

We kind of agree on something!!! This passing game will really, really struggle without Sammy. I think, besides Tyrod, he's the most indispensable player on the team. Glenn, Hughes, Dareus and the corners would be next in no particular order.

 

Agreed. I'd put Glenn at the head of that list tho given the lack of quality on the right side of our line. Until Ryan figures out this D, which has been all talk to date in a "show me" world, the impact of loss of Hughes or Dareus is a mystery. I'm one of those expecting Ryan's D to trend more into the 20th - 25th ranking status that he had his Jets' D in the last four years there given last year's slide. The onus is on him to prove his skeptics wrong.

 

The whole thing is poor planning by Whaley & Ryan. Ryan's like a kid in a candy shop for defensive players. IMO he'd draft all defense again next season in the first three rounds again if he's allowed to. Meanwhile Whaley's probably just nodding throughout the entire exercise in order to avoid being handed the check after week 17.

 

I still can't get past four 1st-round picks, and a 4th, used on EJ "the IT Factor" Manuel, Watkins, and a player that won't even play 'til midway through his rookie season.

 

You're clearly right, so why didn't anyone getting paid millions, particularly given Watkins soft injury status, think this through? It's rhetorical as the answer is clear, at least to me. WR should have been a priority in round 1 or 2 in a draft deep with them.

 

And frankly, even if Watkins is fully healthy, we still don't have many viable receiving options behind him. Between Taylor's improvement and Hogan leaving IMO that's a wash whereby we would be fortunate to finish much better than the 28th we finished last season in passing. Taylor needs solid receiving options. Woods of course but he's more of a 3rd slot type guy and unless Taylor really does start throwing OTM more he may be minimized. What after him, Hankerson? It's hardly encouraging. I know that many reports have Clay stepping up, but maybe, just maybe, Clay isn't more than what he was in Miami, a 600-yard/3-6 TD TE. Not bad, but hardly great either. Until proven otherwise ...

[Ronin]

He has not had plenty of opportunity to generate YAC because he doesn't get bubble screens in the NFL (much to mine and other chagrin).

You're right the draft was about his YAC, and he hasn't gotten it. But he has generated yards; so I'm happy.

Agree that hes only good at the moment, but factoring his age he is exceptional. If he plays 31 games is he worth the 5th year? Thats a tough line in the sand.

 

Bubble screens have never been successful in the NFL. So why did the team draft him knowing, or at least should have known, that nearly 2/3 of his yards came from plays that are not successful in the NFL? Which fool(s) on our team's FO didn't realize that?

 

Do you think that was a wise lack of consideration?

 

As to whether he's worth the 5th year we'll see, but allow me to pose a hypothetical yet one entirely within the realm of possibility to you and you tell me if he'd be worth 5th year option money, which from what I've read would be top 5-10 WR money.

 

Suppose he plays only 8 or 10 games this season and the games he plays he's hampered with injuries. Let's say that despite the current circumstances he once again hits, barely, 1,000 yards and puts up let's say 8 TDs, something I don't think will happen this season.

 

Then let's suppose next season he has only a nagging injury or two but manages to play all 16 games and yet once again only puts up around 1,000 yards and 6-8 TDs.

 

You gonna pay him like that? In essence he'd be a WR that will have missed approximately 15% of his games, been hampered by injuries in most of the rest, will have clearly proven to be grossly inconsistent not to mention reliably on the field, and quite frankly, mediocre in production as a #1 WR. WRs that log 1,000 yards are all but a dime a dozen and don't need to be paid top 5-10 money to acquire.

 

Don't change the circumstances, would you pay that kind of money for such a WR? I wouldn't, I'd have planned to move on long before that. That's me tho, this team doesn't seem to have many planners much less visionaries in the FO however.

 

And yes, I fully realize that there's a small chance that he'll ante up and post a pair of 1,500 yard, 12 TD seasons this and next year, as unlikely as that is. If that happens, then I'd agree, pay him. I'm talking about the much more likely scenario, and IMO I've been generous with the yardage figures given his performance in two seasons and his current injury status. If he could play 10 games and post 1,000 yards, or even close, that would be something given his history in the NFL.

Edited July 15, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[YattaOkasan]

 

Bubble screens have never been successful in the NFL. So why did the team draft him knowing, or at least should have known, that nearly 2/3 of his yards came from plays that are not successful in the NFL? Which fool(s) on our team's FO didn't realize that?

 

Do you think that was a wise lack of consideration?

 

As to whether he's worth the 5th year we'll see, but allow me to pose a hypothetical yet one entirely within the realm of possibility to you and you tell me if he'd be worth 5th year option money, which from what I've read would be top 5-10 WR money.

 

Suppose he plays only 8 or 10 games this season and the games he plays he's hampered with injuries. Let's say that despite the current circumstances he once again hits, barely, 1,000 yards and puts up let's say 8 TDs, something I don't think will happen this season.

 

Then let's suppose next season he has only a nagging injury or two but manages to play all 16 games and yet once again only puts up around 1,000 yards and 6-8 TDs.

 

You gonna pay him like that? In essence he'd be a WR that will have missed approximately 15% of his games, been hampered by injuries in most of the rest, will have clearly proven to be grossly inconsistent not to mention reliably on the field, and quite frankly, mediocre in production as a #1 WR. WRs that log 1,000 yards are all but a dime a dozen and don't need to be paid top 5-10 money to acquire.

 

Don't change the circumstances, would you pay that kind of money for such a WR? I wouldn't, I'd have planned to move on long before that. That's me tho, this team doesn't seem to have many planners much less visionaries in the FO however.

 

And yes, I fully realize that there's a small chance that he'll ante up and post a pair of 1,500 yard, 12 TD seasons this and next year, as unlikely as that is. If that happens, then I'd agree, pay him. I'm talking about the much more likely scenario, and IMO I've been generous with the yardage figures given his performance in two seasons and his current injury status. If he could play 10 games and post 1,000 yards, or even close, that would be something given his history in the NFL.

Wise or not I think hes a good player that generates a lot of yards.

 

Yes I would pick up his 5th year in your scenario.

[Ronin]

But he has generated yards; so I'm happy.

 

BTW, he has been tremendously inconsistent in generating yards. In half of his games he's failed to hit 50. He's among the worst of the half-dozen or so best WRs in his draft class in that way.

 

He's very inconsistent. WRs like that are not difficult to come by. He's going to really have to step it up this season if he wants to be regarded as something other than just another starting WR. You cannot live off of and have a reputation on 20% of your games played. Consistency is key.

Wise or not I think hes a good player that generates a lot of yards.

 

Yes I would pick up his 5th year in your scenario.

 

Well, OK, our FO probably will, so you'll likely be happy.

 

As for me, I expect more for that kind of money. It fully explains why we're in the midst of a historical playoff-less streak. When you pay players like Mario "best defensive player" money, WRs like that top-5 or 10 money, Fitzpatrick huge contracts, etc., it's not difficult to see why we don't make the playoffs. There's less to spend on players that offer 16 games worth of value.

 

And again, he "generates lots of yards" in a handful of games. He doesn't generate "lots of yards" in most games. Only 12 of 29 games were over 80 yards. Really 12 of 32 because we cannot dismiss the ones he didn't play in. If "lots of yards" is 100, not unrealistic in today's passing facilitated NFL, then we can subtract 3 from that figure for only 9 of 32. Not sure what "lots of yards" is for you, but that's not it for me.

Edited July 15, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[YattaOkasan]

 

BTW, he has been tremendously inconsistent in generating yards. In half of his games he's failed to hit 50. He's among the worst of the half-dozen or so best WRs in his draft class in that way.

 

He's very inconsistent. WRs like that are not difficult to come by. He's going to really have to step it up this season if he wants to be regarded as something other than just another starting WR. You cannot live off of and have a reputation on 20% of your games played. Consistency is key.

 

Well, OK, our FO probably will, so you'll likely be happy.

 

As for me, I expect more for that kind of money. It fully explains why we're in the midst of a historical playoff-less streak. When you pay players like Mario "best defensive player" money, WRs like that top-5 or 10 money, Fitzpatrick huge contracts, etc., it's not difficult to see why we don't make the playoffs. There's less to spend on players that offer 16 games worth of value.

 

And again, he "generates lots of yards" in a handful of games. He doesn't generate "lots of yards" in most games. Only 12 of 29 games were over 80 yards. Really 12 of 32 because we cannot dismiss the ones he didn't play in. If "lots of yards" is 100, not unrealistic in today's passing facilitated NFL, then we can subtract 3 from that figure for only 9 of 32. Not sure what "lots of yards" is for you, but that's not it for me.

As bandit has mentioned he has performed well as of late. Particularly when he gets targets. Its difficult for him to control how often the ball is thrown his way.

 

Unless I'm misunderstanding, the 5th year option for a WR this year would make them the 11th highest paid player. I am ok with that. Again Sammy is very young.

Edited July 15, 2016 by YattaOkasan

[John from Riverside]

But there seems to be some cognitive dissonance here to me. Without Sammy were terrible yet hes not worth a 5th year option. I get that injuries is the crux of TG's argument but Sammy's only missed 3 games in 2 years.

There is something to be said for how many QBs he has had to play with in his tenure here as well.....

 

Dig deeper tasker

[Ronin]

There is something to be said for how many QBs he has had to play with in his tenure here as well.....

 

Dig deeper tasker

 

Other WRs, particularly in his draft class, have done better with comparable or less. Some of them aren't even #1 WRs.

 

Maybe you should dig a little deeper. Seriously, you must think this team is well managed.

 

Either way, he had Taylor last year which was better than what many others had.

 

Robinson posted 1,200 yards last season with a 2nd year QB. Hurns as a #2 posted similar to Watkins with the same.

 

Evans posted 1,200 with a rookie throwing the ball that played no better than Taylor, perhaps worse.

 

Landry posted nearly 1,200 with Tannehill throwing. You think Tannehill's better than Taylor?

 

Brandin Cooks posted over 1,100 in 13 starts in NO. Yes, with Brees, nonetheless.

 

Willie Snead also about matched Watkins as a #2 last year in NO starting only 9 games.

 

John Brown did about what Watkins did but in 11 starts, as a #2. Palmer throwing. He's hardly great shakes.

 

Jordan Matthews matched Watkins too in Philly with Bradford throwing. He sucks.

 

Is that deep enough?

 

I'm thinking that the one that needs to dig deeper is you.

 

That's 8 WRs from Watkins' draft class that performed comparably to or better than Watkins, some not even #1s and some in fewer starts.

 

Not trying to incite here, but damn son, at least put together an argument that demonstrates that you understand the facts surrounding the issue up for debate.

 

Meanwhile, people accuse me of "running" and not responding when I'm fully aware of the facts yet simply don't want to waste my precious time due to others that are clueless. If everyone would educate themselves a little prior to posting, most of these posts either wouldn't exist or would at least have some substance behind them.

Edited July 15, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[John from Riverside]

 

Other WRs, particularly in his draft class, have done better with comparable or less. Some of them aren't even #1 WRs.

 

Maybe you should dig a little deeper. Seriously, you must think this team is well managed.

 

Either way, he had Taylor last year which was better than what many others had.

 

Robinson posted 1,200 yards last season with a 2nd year QB. Hurns as a #2 posted similar to Watkins with the same.

 

Evans posted 1,200 with a rookie throwing the ball that played no better than Taylor, perhaps worse.

 

Landry posted nearly 1,200 with Tannehill throwing. You think Tannehill's better than Taylor?

 

Brandin Cooks posted over 1,100 in 13 starts in NO. Yes, with Brees, nonetheless.

 

Willie Snead also about matched Watkins as a #2 last year in NO starting only 9 games.

 

John Brown did about what Watkins did but in 11 starts, as a #2. Palmer throwing. He's hardly great shakes.

 

Jordan Matthews matched Watkins too in Philly with Bradford throwing. He sucks.

 

Is that deep enough?

 

I'm thinking that the one that needs to dig deeper is you.

 

That's 8 WRs from Watkins' draft class that performed comparably to or better than Watkins, some not even #1s and some in fewer starts.

 

Not trying to incite here, but damn son, at least put together an argument that demonstrates that you understand the facts surrounding the issue up for debate.

 

Meanwhile, people accuse me of "running" and not responding when I'm fully aware of the facts yet simply don't want to waste my precious time due to others that are clueless. If everyone would educate themselves a little prior to posting, most of these posts either wouldn't exist or would at least have some substance behind them.

In all of this you do realize that this is a heavy run orientated offense right? Can we take a look at targets at Watkins as opposed to targets at some of those other wide recievers.

 

Personally...this morning I am trying very hard to just have conversation and not all the flaming stuff.

[CommonCents]

 

Other WRs, particularly in his draft class, have done better with comparable or less. Some of them aren't even #1 WRs.

 

Maybe you should dig a little deeper. Seriously, you must think this team is well managed.

 

Either way, he had Taylor last year which was better than what many others had.

 

Robinson posted 1,200 yards last season with a 2nd year QB. Hurns as a #2 posted similar to Watkins with the same.

 

Evans posted 1,200 with a rookie throwing the ball that played no better than Taylor, perhaps worse.

 

Landry posted nearly 1,200 with Tannehill throwing. You think Tannehill's better than Taylor?

 

Brandin Cooks posted over 1,100 in 13 starts in NO. Yes, with Brees, nonetheless.

 

Willie Snead also about matched Watkins as a #2 last year in NO starting only 9 games.

 

John Brown did about what Watkins did but in 11 starts, as a #2. Palmer throwing. He's hardly great shakes.

 

Jordan Matthews matched Watkins too in Philly with Bradford throwing. He sucks.

 

Is that deep enough?

 

I'm thinking that the one that needs to dig deeper is you.

 

That's 8 WRs from Watkins' draft class that performed comparably to or better than Watkins, some not even #1s and some in fewer starts.

 

Not trying to incite here, but damn son, at least put together an argument that demonstrates that you understand the facts surrounding the issue up for debate.

 

Meanwhile, people accuse me of "running" and not responding when I'm fully aware of the facts yet simply don't want to waste my precious time due to others that are clueless. If everyone would educate themselves a little prior to posting, most of these posts either wouldn't exist or would at least have some substance behind them.

Hurns shouldn't count he was UDFA lol. The Most alarming example too me is what happened in NY. Fitz threw too Marshall and Decker for over 2,500 yards and 26 touchdowns.

[Ronin]

In all of this you do realize that this is a heavy run orientated offense right? Can we take a look at targets at Watkins as opposed to targets at some of those other wide recievers.

 

Personally...this morning I am trying very hard to just have conversation and not all the flaming stuff.

 

Well then perhaps do w/o comments like "dig a little deeper" snidely stated, eh. Had you not done that this would have been a little more amiable. Otherwise, all I did was ask, deep enough. Wouldn't have happened w/o the initial challenge, right! You can't just apply that to me, particularly when it's in response. Takes two partner.

 

Happy to dispense with all of that, really. I prefer it in fact. As you've likely noted, I respond in kind, I do my damndest to not initiate.

 

Otherwise, what you said above is an excuse, not anything in the way of analysis. Tampa was hardly a throwing team.

 

If you ask me, most of those other WRs would have posted similar numbers here, perhaps even outshining Watkins. There was a whole lot of talk last year about deep threat options and passing, as I see it what happened was that between Taylor's struggles as a first-time QB and the lack of players like Harvin to develop into much of anything the team relied more on its running game than it wanted to. I mean think about it, we essentially had Watkins, not even for all 16 games, Woods, and Hogan, neither of the latter helped Taylor much in his OTM struggles. Hopefully that changes this season but now we don't even have Hogan and have a whole slew of also-ran 4/5's instead.

 

Most of those WRs listed above are not purely OTM WRs like Hogan and Woods are. They would have done much better here in a traditional split role. Any WR would have. That's where Taylor buttered his bread in the passing game.

 

Either way, I just put up a list of 8 WRs from Watkins' draft class that posted similar or better numbers, few of which were #1 WRs AND started all 16 games AND had great QBs throwing AND had better overall offensive support structures. I didn't even bother to mention OBJ/Manning.

 

Point being that this notion that Watkins is somehow special is only prevalent in Buffalo. I wish he were, but until further notice he's not. Particularly for a WR that was drafted for his YAC specialty. All I've entertained today is excuses as to why he hasn't played out according to his draft expectations.

 

When he plays 16 games in a season and outshines almost all of his draft peers, particularly those in later rounds like most of the above, then we can talk about how good he is. Until then he needs to be a whole lot more consistent and offer a little bit more than a six-game string of exceptional performance. Maybe he'll do that this season, but until further notice ...

Edited July 15, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[John from Riverside]

 

Well then perhaps do w/o comments like "dig a little deeper" snidely stated, eh. Had you not done that this would have been a little more amiable. Otherwise, all I did was ask, deep enough. Wouldn't have happened w/o the initial challenge, right! You can't just apply that to me, particularly when it's in response. Takes two partner.

 

Happy to dispense with all of that, really. I prefer it in fact. As you've likely noted, I respond in kind, I do my damndest to not initiate.

 

Otherwise, what you said above is an excuse, not anything in the way of analysis. Tampa was hardly a throwing team.

 

If you ask me, most of those other WRs would have posted similar numbers here, perhaps even outshining Watkins. There was a whole lot of talk last year about deep threat options and passing, as I see it what happened was that between Taylor's struggles as a first-time QB and the lack of players like Harvin to develop into much of anything the team relied more on its running game than it wanted to. I mean think about it, we essentially had Watkins, not even for all 16 games, Woods, and Hogan, neither of the latter helped Taylor much in his OTM struggles. Hopefully that changes this season but now we don't even have Hogan and have a whole slew of also-ran 4/5's instead.

 

Most of those WRs listed above are not purely OTM WRs like Hogan and Woods are. They would have done much better here in a traditional split role. Any WR would have. That's where Taylor buttered his bread in the passing game.

 

Either way, I just put up a list of 8 WRs from Watkins' draft class that posted similar or better numbers, few of which were #1 WRs AND started all 16 games AND had great QBs throwing AND had better overall offensive support structures. I didn't even bother to mention OBJ/Manning.

 

Point being that this notion that Watkins is somehow special is only prevalent in Buffalo. I wish he were, but until further notice he's not. Particularly for a WR that was drafted for his YAC specialty. All I've entertained today is excuses as to why he hasn't played out according to his draft expectations.

 

When he plays 16 games in a season and outshines almost all of his draft peers, particularly those in later rounds like most of the above, then we can talk about how good he is. Until then he needs to be a whole lot more consistent and offer a little bit more than a six-game string of exceptional performance. Maybe he'll do that this season, but until further notice ...

Sorry Tasker....maybe another day. Not dealing with babies on a Friday.