NFL future power rankings: projecting the next 3 seasons

[Ronin]

Already forgot Denver last year??

 

I think you missed the context of the argument.

 

Denver, despite how poorly Manning played, had him as a game-manager at least, which does have value. Brad Johnson (Tampa) & Trent Dilfer (Balt) are completely different.

 

Either way, and again, the point raised was re: Tampa's (Johnson's) D, which was prolific, historically speaking. Denver's was not. 296 PA in the season hardly ranks among the top two historically and is well over 100 points more than Tampa's D and about 100 points more than Balt's D allowed.

 

Denver also peaked in the playoffs. Both Tampa and Baltimore back then played that way all season long.

What are you taking about?!? Not picking up Watkins' 5th year option?!? You lose all credibility that you are trying to build with such an outlandish thought!!

 

Fwiw, the Bills front office is well respected around the league. The talent hasn't been the issue. They've drafted well (nice job leaving Darby out of your rant) and added talent in free agency.

 

OK, if you think that we've drafted well under Whaley you're completely ignoring several objective studies. As well, the only ones in the world that would possibly think that four 1st-rounders yielding Manuel, Watkins, and now an injured and who-knows-how-good Lawson are Bills homers. Not to mention the 4th in the deal for Watkins. Our 3rds and later have been well below average as well since Whaley's been here in any capacity in the lead role.

 

Otherwise, if Watkins cannot stay healthy, as it now once again appears to be the case, and can't make it thru this season injury-free for the most part, not to mention doesn't put up much more than the 1,000-yards and average of 7.5 TDs he's put up, then he'll hardly be worth 5th-year option money.

 

Thinking anything else is homeristic. Also, Watkins is among the least consistent top WRs in his draft class. For every great game he lays an egg. He's really gotta shed that and the other stuff in order to be worth much more than average money for a starting WR. 5th year option money's going to be much more than average starting WR money.

 

So let's see him play all 32 games this and next season prior to declaring him as great as everyone says he is. In two seasons he has only 9 100-yard games, half of which are against our defensively weak divisional rivals, but in those same two seasons he has 14 games of fewer than 50 yards.

 

That's hardly worth 5th-year extension money. Any opinion to the contrary is hype only at this point. No team in their right mind would pay that kind of money for a WR that posts four 100-yard games every season and can't stay healthy. We're not in our right minds so we probably will given how this team sells hype and not actual performance, so this isn't a statement on what will happen, it's a statement on if things don't change what should/shouldn't happen.

 

This is why we are the Bills with both the longest current active and historical playoff-less stretches.

 

And by-the-way, if you'll honestly recall, when Watkins was drafted the hype wasn't about how he needed a great QB to play well, no, to the contrary, it was "just get the ball in his hands and magic will happen." The fact of the matter is that his draft peers have played better with no better QB play, some even worse QB play, and he's got one of the lowest YAC averages of the best WRs in his draft class not to mention in the league overall, he's not good in YAC, which is why we drafted him.

 

So if he's not doing what was expected, I don't know how anyone can possibly claim that he's as great as many in Buffalo seem to do. Elsewhere around the league, not in Buffalo that is, the word that's quietly being whispered pending yet another injury-laden season where he either doesn't play all the games or plays many of them injured, is "BUST." Frankly, if he can't stay off the injury report, and if he doesn't start doing a little more than 60 catches for 1,000 yards and 6 or 7 TDs, most of which come in five or six games against weaker opponents, then insofar as his hype goes, he will have been a bust.

 

Great things were expected of him, so far he hasn't delivered.

Edited July 12, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[kdub]

 

...several objective studies.

 

Do you have links for any of these?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/16641745/2016-nfl-future-power-rankings-seattle-seahawks-new-england-patriots-carolina-panthers-earn-high-marks

 

Bills projected as bottom 5 team

Is there any type of context here? The Bills are the best position they have been roster wise in over a decade. They are young and talented at all the key positions. They have a top spending owner that keeps their own and is willing to spend whatever it takes.

 

I would love to know their reasoning. Im just hoping its not some lazy article.

Edited July 12, 2016 by TheTruthHurts

[MarkyMannn]

 

Do you have links for any of these?

Links to disprove it?

[Ronin]

Do you have links for any of these?

 

Two of 'em I got here. I have no idea where they are in the forum. Go find 'em. One was done by either Football Outsiders or PFW IIRC. You talk as if you're already aware of them, perhaps some homework besides just biased opinions without any facts whatsoever to sustain them might be a good idea to include instead of challenging me like this.

 

Seriously tho, you can't look at our drafts since 2010 and figure out for yourself that perhaps they haven't been even average?

 

Really? I mean really? I've already pointed out at least twice in this brief thread that for four 1st-rounders we have a bust, an injured rookie with no indications as to how good he'll actually be otherwise, and an injury-prone WR with unresolved issues, his biggest to date, heading into the preseason. Does this strike you as anything but in the lower end of how other teams drafted from 2012 thru 2015 using their four 1st-rounders, at least for teams that had all four?

 

Hell, our 2nd rounders have been better, I've also pointed out how we've gotten almost nothing from our 3rds and later since 2010 when Whaley arrived to head up the Pro Personnel Dept.

 

This is a waste of time. Go do some research, get your facts lined up, and then PM me and I'll meet you back here to discuss.

 

Far too many people can't seem to distinguish between facts and opinions.

Links to disprove it?

 

Thank you!

 

Seriously, what fool actually believes that we've drafted well since Whaley arrived much less since he's been the GM.

 

Karlos Williams is also expected to be one of our big hurrahs this season and apparently it'll be half a miracle if he is even in shape by the time the season starts. If you ask me he's put himself on the roster bubble by being a slob. In other news he had two great games last year, both in his home state of Florida, alongside about a half-dozen crappy games, and people talk about him as if he's anything special.

 

Again, wouldn't suprise me at all if he doesn't make the roster as a result of his lack of discipline.

 

Just an isolated rant.

Edited July 12, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

Two of 'em I got here. I have no idea where they are in the forum. Go find 'em. One was done by either Football Outsiders or PFW IIRC. You talk as if you're already aware of them, perhaps some homework besides just biased opinions without any facts whatsoever to sustain them might be a good idea to include instead of challenging me like this.

 

Seriously tho, you can't look at our drafts since 2010 and figure out for yourself that perhaps they haven't been even average?

 

Really? I mean really? I've already pointed out at least twice in this brief thread that for four 1st-rounders we have a bust, an injured rookie with no indications as to how good he'll actually be otherwise, and an injury-prone WR with unresolved issues, his biggest to date, heading into the preseason. Does this strike you as anything but in the lower end of how other teams drafted from 2012 thru 2015 using their four 1st-rounders, at least for teams that had all four?

 

Hell, our 2nd rounders have been better, I've also pointed out how we've gotten almost nothing from our 3rds and later since 2010 when Whaley arrived to head up the Pro Personnel Dept.

 

This is a waste of time. Go do some research, get your facts lined up, and then PM me and I'll meet you back here to discuss.

 

Far too many people can't seem to distinguish between facts and opinions.

 

Thank you!

 

Seriously, what fool actually believes that we've drafted well since Whaley arrived much less since he's been the GM.

 

Karlos Williams is also expected to be one of our big hurrahs this season and apparently it'll be half a miracle if he is even in shape by the time the season starts. If you ask me he's put himself on the roster bubble by being a slob. In other news he had two great games last year, both in his home state of Florida, alongside about a half-dozen crappy games, and people talk about him as if he's anything special.

 

Again, wouldn't suprise me at all if he doesn't make the roster as a result of his lack of discipline.

 

Just an isolated rant.

Bills have been one of the best drafting teams the last 5 or so years. Previously they were terrible.

 

9. Bills

GMs: Russ Brandon (2010), Buddy Nix (2011-12), Doug Whaley (2013-14)

Average position of 1st pick: 8.4

Total Picks: 42

Pro Bowlers: 2

Best Pick: DT Marcell Dareus — 2011 1st round

Worst Pick: DT Torell Troup — 2010 2nd round

Coach Rex Ryan is going to benefit from how well the Bills have drafted in recent years. The one area they have missed on is at quarterback, where EJ Manuel, their 2013 1st-round pick, does not look like the answer.

http://nypost.com/2015/04/25/an-exhaustive-ranking-of-every-nfl-teams-draft-haul-since-2010/

 

Another study, years 2009-2013 has the Bills 10th.

http://sportswire.usatoday.com/2014/05/07/nfl-draft-best-teams-seattle-seahawks-san-francisco-49ers-tennessee-titans-new-england-patriots/

[Kirby Jackson]

Bills have been one of the best drafting teams the last 5 or so years. Previously they were terrible.

http://nypost.com/2015/04/25/an-exhaustive-ranking-of-every-nfl-teams-draft-haul-since-2010/

 

Another study, years 2009-2013 has the Bills 10th.

http://sportswire.usatoday.com/2014/05/07/nfl-draft-best-teams-seattle-seahawks-san-francisco-49ers-tennessee-titans-new-england-patriots/

Yeah but since that draft they have only used their 1st picks for Watkins, Darby and Shaq Lawson!! That must hurt them, anyone can see that. :rolleyes:

[snafu]

Why are the Bills always 28th in these jackass rankings?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Why are the Bills always 28th in these jackass rankings?

I really dont understand this one, previous year ok. I wish we had context.

 

I hope its simply not Tyrod Taylor is a free agent after the season and the Bills have nothing behind him.

 

If its also Rex, well coaches get fired and our new owner is willing to spend on coaches. So not a worry there if we have to hire another coach.

Edited July 12, 2016 by TheTruthHurts

[MarkyMannn]

Bills have been one of the best drafting teams the last 5 or so years. Previously they were terrible.

If that were true it would transfer to the field and their record. It doesn't so they can't be

 

My opinion, if TT doesn't take a big step forward this year, the whole club is going to be set back a number of years

[Kirby Jackson]

If that were true it would transfer to the field and their record. It doesn't so they can't be

 

My opinion, if TT doesn't take a big step forward this year, the whole club is going to be set back a number of years

A lot of the best players on the team: Dareus, Watkins, Darby, Gilmore, Glenn and Tyrod are young. They are IMPROVING players which usually translates to an IMPROVED record. The only guys that they have playing now who are on the "back nine" are Kyle (he missed basically the whole year) and Shady. Everyone else is either in their prime or entering their prime.

[maddenboy]

A lot of the best players on the team: Dareus, Watkins, Darby, Gilmore, Glenn and Tyrod are young. They are IMPROVING players which usually translates to an IMPROVED record. The only guys that they have playing now who are on the "back nine" are Kyle (he missed basically the whole year) and Shady. Everyone else is either in their prime or entering their prime.

 

I dont want to "improve." I want to win the SuperBowl THIS YEAR.

 

Improving just gets me from 6-10 to 9-7. How does that help me? I do not want to improve. I want to win the Superbowl this year. I dont want to barely make the playoffs. I dont want to "make a run." I want to dominate and win the SB this year.

 

Lets discuss how we can do that, instead of discussing how we can get a little bit better, rinsing and repeating.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

If that were true it would transfer to the field and their record. It doesn't so they can't be

 

My opinion, if TT doesn't take a big step forward this year, the whole club is going to be set back a number of years

Tyrod was 8-6 last year. It did translate.

 

I dont want to "improve." I want to win the SuperBowl THIS YEAR.

 

Improving just gets me from 6-10 to 9-7. How does that help me? I do not want to improve. I want to win the Superbowl this year. I dont want to barely make the playoffs. I dont want to "make a run." I want to dominate and win the SB this year.

 

Lets discuss how we can do that, instead of discussing how we can get a little bit better, rinsing and repeating.

Many wildcard teams have made the Super Bowl. Get in the dance, that has to be the Bills goal. After that we see what happens. They are on the right track.

Edited July 12, 2016 by TheTruthHurts

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I dont want to "improve." I want to win the SuperBowl THIS YEAR.

 

Improving just gets me from 6-10 to 9-7. How does that help me? I do not want to improve. I want to win the Superbowl this year. I dont want to barely make the playoffs. I dont want to "make a run." I want to dominate and win the SB this year.

 

Lets discuss how we can do that, instead of discussing how we can get a little bit better, rinsing and repeating.

Oh, me too but the topic suggests that the Bills will be 4 games worse in 3 years than they are now. The Bills are trending up, not down IMO.

[Jauronimo]

 

I dont want to "improve." I want to win the SuperBowl THIS YEAR.

 

Improving just gets me from 6-10 to 9-7. How does that help me? I do not want to improve. I want to win the Superbowl this year. I dont want to barely make the playoffs. I dont want to "make a run." I want to dominate and win the SB this year.

 

Lets discuss how we can do that, instead of discussing how we can get a little bit better, rinsing and repeating.

The Dan Snyder method has not been very successful.

[snafu]

I really dont understand this one, previous year ok. I wish we had context.

 

I hope its simply not Tyrod Taylor is a free agent after the season and the Bills have nothing behind him.

 

If its also Rex, well coaches get fired and our new owner is willing to spend on coaches. So not a worry there if we have to hire another coach.

 

And you just pointed out two factors that make a three year projection meaningless. There are way too many moving parts.

Tyrod could also turn into a top 5 QB. Some key player may miss a year on IR. Rex had a year to implement his system on a defense which wasn't set up for it because Marrone unexpectedly left. Rex could be a buffoon or he might do well.

 

The only team I saw ranked was Seattle (because I'm thankfully not an ESPN "Insider"). What happens if Pete Carroll stops coaching after next year? What about Russell Wilson's health?

[Fadingpain]

I always laugh at these things. The Bills are always predicted in the bottom 5 but if memory serves me correctly they have only finished in the bottom 5 once in like 12 years (the Dareus pick). I think that is on of the misconceptions about the Bills during this streak. They have been bad but averaged 6.6 wins a season in that time frame. It isn't like they are the Browns and missing on guys at the top of the draft all of the time. They aren't getting a shot at the top guys.

You're right. We haven't been God awful.

 

We've been slightly better than God awful, but not quite mediocre.

 

[Jauronimo]

 

I think you missed the context of the argument.

 

Denver, despite how poorly Manning played, had him as a game-manager at least, which does have value. Brad Johnson (Tampa) & Trent Dilfer (Balt) are completely different.

 

Either way, and again, the point raised was re: Tampa's (Johnson's) D, which was prolific, historically speaking. Denver's was not. 296 PA in the season hardly ranks among the top two historically and is well over 100 points more than Tampa's D and about 100 points more than Balt's D allowed.

 

Denver also peaked in the playoffs. Both Tampa and Baltimore back then played that way all season long.

 

OK, if you think that we've drafted well under Whaley you're completely ignoring several objective studies. As well, the only ones in the world that would possibly think that four 1st-rounders yielding Manuel, Watkins, and now an injured and who-knows-how-good Lawson are Bills homers. Not to mention the 4th in the deal for Watkins. Our 3rds and later have been well below average as well since Whaley's been here in any capacity in the lead role.

 

Otherwise, if Watkins cannot stay healthy, as it now once again appears to be the case, and can't make it thru this season injury-free for the most part, not to mention doesn't put up much more than the 1,000-yards and average of 7.5 TDs he's put up, then he'll hardly be worth 5th-year option money.

 

Thinking anything else is homeristic. Also, Watkins is among the least consistent top WRs in his draft class. For every great game he lays an egg. He's really gotta shed that and the other stuff in order to be worth much more than average money for a starting WR. 5th year option money's going to be much more than average starting WR money.

 

So let's see him play all 32 games this and next season prior to declaring him as great as everyone says he is. In two seasons he has only 9 100-yard games, half of which are against our defensively weak divisional rivals, but in those same two seasons he has 14 games of fewer than 50 yards.

 

That's hardly worth 5th-year extension money. Any opinion to the contrary is hype only at this point. No team in their right mind would pay that kind of money for a WR that posts four 100-yard games every season and can't stay healthy. We're not in our right minds so we probably will given how this team sells hype and not actual performance, so this isn't a statement on what will happen, it's a statement on if things don't change what should/shouldn't happen.

 

This is why we are the Bills with both the longest current active and historical playoff-less stretches.

 

And by-the-way, if you'll honestly recall, when Watkins was drafted the hype wasn't about how he needed a great QB to play well, no, to the contrary, it was "just get the ball in his hands and magic will happen." The fact of the matter is that his draft peers have played better with no better QB play, some even worse QB play, and he's got one of the lowest YAC averages of the best WRs in his draft class not to mention in the league overall, he's not good in YAC, which is why we drafted him.

 

So if he's not doing what was expected, I don't know how anyone can possibly claim that he's as great as many in Buffalo seem to do. Elsewhere around the league, not in Buffalo that is, the word that's quietly being whispered pending yet another injury-laden season where he either doesn't play all the games or plays many of them injured, is "BUST." Frankly, if he can't stay off the injury report, and if he doesn't start doing a little more than 60 catches for 1,000 yards and 6 or 7 TDs, most of which come in five or six games against weaker opponents, then insofar as his hype goes, he will have been a bust.

 

Great things were expected of him, so far he hasn't delivered.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2016/4/15/11439638/nfl-fifth-year-option-nfl-draft-contract-tracker

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000484561/article/fifthyear-option-tracker-for-2012-firstround-picks

 

Take a look at the type of players that don't get their 5th year option picked up, reflect on it, and get back to us if you still want to have terrible opinions.

[Kirby Jackson]

You're right. We haven't been God awful.

 

We've been slightly better than God awful, but not quite mediocre.

 

Yep we haven't been bad enough to get good. We have been bad enough to stay bad.

[H2o]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/16641745/2016-nfl-future-power-rankings-seattle-seahawks-new-england-patriots-carolina-panthers-earn-high-marks

 

Bills projected as bottom 5 team

DOOMED!!!!!!!