NorthBuffaloKid Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 And was roundly criticized for it. One of the things that I said was that kickers seldom get injured. I also pointed out that the top 20 scorers of all time are kickers. Now that our 1st round pick is out for a while, it seems as if the idea isn't as crazy as some of you said. And no, I'm not smoking, drinking or injecting anything. I'm just bored this off season and stirring the pot... GO BILLS!
Kirby Jackson Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 And was roundly criticized for it. One of the things that I said was that kickers seldom get injured. I also pointed out that the top 20 scorers of all time are kickers. Now that our 1st round pick is out for a while, it seems as if the idea isn't as crazy as some of you said. And no, I'm not smoking, drinking or injecting anything. I'm just bored this off season and stirring the pot... GO BILLS! kicker 1.png
Chandler#81 Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 And was roundly criticized for it. One of the things that I said was that kickers seldom get injured. I also pointed out that the top 20 scorers of all time are kickers. Now that our 1st round pick is out for a while, it seems as if the idea isn't as crazy as some of you said. And no, I'm not smoking, drinking or injecting anything. I'm just bored this off season and stirring the pot... GO BILLS!kicker 1.png Nobody paid any attention then, either..
NorthBuffaloKid Posted June 11, 2016 Author Posted June 11, 2016 (edited) HYSTERICAL!!! LOVE IT!! Nobody paid any attention then, either.. Well, Lets see over time which player has more impact on each game. Right now, the advantage has to go to Aguayo, seeing that he will be starting the first few games and Lawson will be sitting. My guess is that Aguayo will win at least 2 games for the Bucs. I'm not sure that can be said for Lawson...Yet. Edited June 11, 2016 by NorthBuffaloKid
BarleyNY Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2016/the-2nd-round-is-no-place-for-a-kicker This specifically addresses the impact of selecting Aguayo vs. sticking with Barth. For those who don't care to wade through it, the gist is that taking Aguayo in the second round was an awful use of the draft picks used to acquire him and that the difference between the performance of Barth and Aguayo is likely to be negligible.
NorthBuffaloKid Posted June 11, 2016 Author Posted June 11, 2016 (edited) http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2016/the-2nd-round-is-no-place-for-a-kicker This specifically addresses the impact of selecting Aguayo vs. sticking with Barth. For those who don't care to wade through it, the gist is that taking Aguayo in the second round was an awful use of the draft picks used to acquire him and that the difference between the performance of Barth and Aguayo is likely to be negligible. Good read. The author was arguing that climate and the kicker from last year dictated that trading up for Aguayo was a bad move. He makes some good points. The first is that you need a good kicker more in colder weather (like Buffalo). The second is that last years kicker for the Bucs had a very good year and even a stellar performance from Aguayo wouldn't be much of an improvement. That can't be said for Carpenter. As a matter of fact, we would be paying Aguayo LESS than Carpenter, let alone Carpenter and Gay. The top 20 scorers in the NFL last year were kickers. Carpenter was 20th. We are screaming for improved performance from the defense that ranked 22nd last year. Why not kicker? Look at the wasted 1st round picks...Manziel, anyone? Edited June 11, 2016 by NorthBuffaloKid
3rdand12 Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 I think Bills fans felt the value and importance of the the kicker last year. Drafting one that early seems a bit indulgent to me. Regardless of Aguayo's talent
Alphadawg7 Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 (edited) Good read. The author was arguing that climate and the kicker from last year dictated that trading up for Aguayo was a bad move. He makes some good points. The first is that you need a good kicker more in colder weather (like Buffalo). The second is that last years kicker for the Bucs had a very good year and even a stellar performance from Aguayo wouldn't be much of an improvement. That can't be said for Carpenter. As a matter of fact, we would be paying Aguayo LESS than Carpenter, let alone Carpenter and Gay. The top 20 scorers in the NFL last year were kickers. Carpenter was 20th. We are screaming for improved performance from the defense that ranked 22nd last year. Why not kicker? Look at the wasted 1st round picks...Manziel, anyone? The whole top 20 scorers thing is ridiculous though for this analyst. Even a bad kicker will be amongst the top scorers in the league, so its an irrelevant statement. The only statistical analytic that matters is the gap between the kickers. Kickers are only amongst the top scorers because barring injury, the points they score are generated by a single player, so to keep saying they are among the top 20 in scoring doesn't make them more important that the QBs they outscored for instance. Carpenter is probably around the top 10 to 12 kickers in the league. His performance dropped last year when he struggled with some health issues, but he was great the year before, so just balancing the 2 years. That means, to improve upon him, this new kicker has to be a top 10 player at his position in the league and that is no easy task for any position. And even if the rookie did immediately become one of the 10 best in the NFL, how much more of an impact is he really making over a guy who is in the 10 to 12 range? Now take a mediocre DE and upgrade to an Elite DE rookie prospect. That DE only needs become a good starter to be of a sizeable upgrade over a mediocre DE who is really a rotational player. If that DE lives up to their first round potential and becomes a Pro Bowl player at his position, then his impact would be substantially greater than the player he replaced. Quality kickers are so much easier to find than good DE's. And we already have a quality kicker, he may not be the best kicker in the league, but when he wasn't battling injuries the year before he was a pretty darn good kicker. So taking a kicker over Lawson would have be single dumbest thing this franchise ever did in its history, and its got a long history of very dumb things. Even if Shaq busts out of the league and Aguayo goes on to be a great kicker, it still was the correct move taking Shaq because on draft night you do NOT have the benefit of knowing their future and you just don't take a Kicker over an Elite DE propspect in the first round. The only way a team can validate taking a kicker in the first 2 rounds is really because they have a SB contending team and their absolute glaring weakness is a terrible kicker who literally loses them games, especially playoff games, and your still bitter about it. And even then, the kicker would have to be the most special kicker ever to come out of school. Edited June 11, 2016 by Alphadawg7
NorthBuffaloKid Posted June 11, 2016 Author Posted June 11, 2016 (edited) The whole top 20 scorers thing is ridiculous though for this analyst. Even a bad kicker will be amongst the top scorers in the league, so its an irrelevant statement. The only statistical analytic that matters is the gap between the kickers. Kickers are only amongst the top scorers because barring injury, the points they score are generated by a single player, so to keep saying they are among the top 20 in scoring doesn't make them more important that the QBs they outscored for instance. Carpenter is probably around the top 10 to 12 kickers in the league. His performance dropped last year when he struggled with some health issues, but he was great the year before, so just balancing the 2 years. That means, to improve upon him, this new kicker has to be a top 10 player at his position in the league and that is no easy task for any position. And even if the rookie did immediately become one of the 10 best in the NFL, how much more of an impact is he really making over a guy who is in the 10 to 12 range? Now take a mediocre DE and upgrade to an Elite DE rookie prospect. That DE only needs become a good starter to be of a sizeable upgrade over a mediocre DE who is really a rotational player. If that DE lives up to their first round potential and becomes a Pro Bowl player at his position, then his impact would be substantially greater than the player he replaced. Quality kickers are so much easier to find than good DE's. And we already have a quality kicker, he may not be the best kicker in the league, but when he wasn't battling injuries the year before he was a pretty darn good kicker. So taking a kicker over Lawson would have be single dumbest thing this franchise ever did in its history, and its got a long history of very dumb things. Even if Shaq busts out of the league and Aguayo goes on to be a great kicker, it still was the correct move taking Shaq because on draft night you do NOT have the benefit of knowing their future and you just don't take a Kicker over an Elite DE propspect in the first round. The only way a team can validate taking a kicker in the first 2 rounds is really because they have a SB contending team and their absolute glaring weakness is a terrible kicker who literally loses them games, especially playoff games, and your still bitter about it. And even then, the kicker would have to be the most special kicker ever to come out of school. You just stated the importance of the kicker in your first paragraph. I've seen a missed kick (even an extra point) rob the momentum of a team. I've seen a long field goal turn a game around I've seen a last second kick turn an entire season around. The year that we went to the super bowl the first time, I believe that Norwood kicked at least 3 game winners. This league is all about the present not the past so the argument that Carpenter was good 2 years ago is moot. Very few 1st round players will make it to the pro bowl. Let's wait and see what pans out. Edited June 11, 2016 by NorthBuffaloKid
snafu Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 Nobody is saying that kickers aren't valuable. Of course they are. Historically, though, kickers don't go in the first round. You'd have to make the argument that Aguayo is so much better than an available free agent kicker or some other kicker drafted in a lower round to make the move worthwhile. He probably isn't so much better and that's why he shouldn't be an exception to the general rule.
NorthBuffaloKid Posted June 11, 2016 Author Posted June 11, 2016 Nobody is saying that kickers aren't valuable. Of course they are. Historically, though, kickers don't go in the first round. You'd have to make the argument that Aguayo is so much better than an available free agent kicker or some other kicker drafted in a lower round to make the move worthwhile. He probably isn't so much better and that's why he shouldn't be an exception to the general rule. I agree, except for his stats show he is much better than his peers. Time will tell.
snafu Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 I agree, except for his stats show he is much better than his peers. Time will tell. Yes it will. I hope he does well, until Lawson blocks a couple on him.
NorthBuffaloKid Posted June 11, 2016 Author Posted June 11, 2016 Yes it will. I hope he does well, until Lawson blocks a couple on him. Well said!
Mark Vader Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 If we hadn't taken Lawson, I would have gone for either a LB, S, OL or WR, long before I would entertain taking a Kicker. That would have been a luxury pick, and the Bills couldn't afford to do that. Personally I am not worried about Carpenter. Yes, he had a down year in 2015, but his previous 2 years, he was excellent. He should have gone to the Pro Bowl after his 2013 season.
Johnny Hammersticks Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 If Buffalo took a kicker in round 1 RWS would have been pillaged and burnt to the ground. Get real.
hondo in seattle Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 And was roundly criticized for it. One of the things that I said was that kickers seldom get injured. I also pointed out that the top 20 scorers of all time are kickers. Now that our 1st round pick is out for a while, it seems as if the idea isn't as crazy as some of you said. And no, I'm not smoking, drinking or injecting anything. I'm just bored this off season and stirring the pot... GO BILLS!kicker 1.png Scoring rankings are a misleading data point. Kickers score more simply because they get more opportunities to score. The real question is one of "value added." On average, a 2nd round kicker is only nominally better than an UDFA. A 2nd round LB is typically much better than a UDFA.
NorthBuffaloKid Posted June 11, 2016 Author Posted June 11, 2016 If Buffalo took a kicker in round 1 RWS would have been pillaged and burnt to the ground. Get real. There would be widespread anger. The trolls would come out in force. I am being real when I say that it wouldn't be such a bad choice. How many touches in a game does the kicker have? 10? maybe more, maybe less. 10 times to affect the game. How many tackles/sacks does a good defensive player make in a game? About the same. Which player DIRECTLY affects the score more? The kicker. Which player is less likely to get injured? The Kicker.
#34fan Posted June 11, 2016 Posted June 11, 2016 Sebastian Janikowski was 100% worth it. -He's deflated more footballs than Tom Brady for sure.
NorthBuffaloKid Posted June 11, 2016 Author Posted June 11, 2016 Scoring rankings are a misleading data point. Kickers score more simply because they get more opportunities to score. The real question is one of "value added." On average, a 2nd round kicker is only nominally better than an UDFA. A 2nd round LB is typically much better than a UDFA. Facts are facts. Kickers score more points than any other position. Other than the QB, they have more opportunity to change the game for the better or worse.
NorthBuffaloKid Posted June 11, 2016 Author Posted June 11, 2016 Sebastian Janikowski was 100% worth it. -He's deflated more footballs than Tom Brady for sure. Remember that Tom didn't deflate the balls. He got in trouble for interfering with the investigation. ;-)
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