Rex and YPPT, what you should be concerned with

[The Big Cat]

Field position plays a role as do many other factors. I have yet to be able to pin down one piece of data with a very strong relationship. Sometimes you see good YPPT with high turnovers, sometimes you see it helped having a great offense, sometimes you see it with great special teams, combinations of all the above, but generally unique to each team and not prone to heavy consistency.

 

But if you have a team that goes three and out a lot, has poor coverage, turns the ball over frequently and gives up points on turnovers and ST then you have a metric which be very negatively impacted yet will have virtually no correlation to the team's defense...

 

And given what Rex's offenses have...uh...achieved since 2009, I can't really say that this has anything to do with his defenses, which he--as a coach--has been largely defined by. Sorry, just not buying what your selling here.

 

What were the Ravens rankings when he coached the defenses there?

Edited May 24, 2016 by The Big Cat

[Maury Ballstein]

Where does 3.14159265359 come into play at ?

[Mikie2times]

 

But if you have a team that goes three and out a lot, has poor coverage, turns the ball over frequently and gives up points on turnovers and ST then you have a metric which be very negatively impacted yet will have virtually no correlation to the team's defense...

 

And given what Rex's offenses have...uh...achieved since 2009, I can't really say that this has anything to do with his defenses, which he--as a coach--has been largely defined by. Sorry, just not buying what your selling here.

 

What were the Ravens rankings when he coached the defenses there?

Three and outs have no impact on this stat unless it resulted in worse field position. Turnovers do play a role as does giving up points on turnovers as it's the defenses job to not let that happen. The 2015 Bills finished 8th in the league in turnovers given up, so they didn't do much to hurt Rex in that area. As for ST's, is it a pattern at this point that his units under perform? Maybe that's a common denominator and certainly his previous poor offenses didn't help him. You don't think another common denominator is his no bend only break defensive style? He puts his corners on islands all the time. He runs a high risk/reward scheme. He got every advantage outside of ST in 2015 to break thru in this area, with ST likely part of his own negative contribution and while he showed his first inverse relationship with yards, he still didn't crack the top 15.

[4merper4mer]

But if you have a team that goes three and out a lot, has poor coverage, turns the ball over frequently and gives up points on turnovers and ST then you have a metric which be very negatively impacted yet will have virtually no correlation to the team's defense...

 

And given what Rex's offenses have...uh...achieved since 2009, I can't really say that this has anything to do with his defenses, which he--as a coach--has been largely defined by. Sorry, just not buying what your selling here.

 

What were the Ravens rankings when he coached the defenses there?

OMFG here we go with Tyrod causing Rex to suck for 6 years again.

[The Big Cat]

Three and outs have no impact on this stat unless it resulted in worse field position. Turnovers do play a role as does giving up points on turnovers as it's the defenses job to not let that happen. The 2015 Bills finished 8th in the league in turnovers given up, so they didn't do much to hurt Rex in that area. As for ST's, is it a pattern at this point that his units under perform? Maybe that's a common denominator and certainly his previous poor offenses didn't help him. You don't think another common denominator is his no bend only break defensive style? He puts his corners on islands all the time. He runs a high risk/reward scheme. He got every advantage outside of ST in 2015 to break thru in this area, with ST likely part of his own negative contribution and while he showed his first inverse relationship with yards, he still didn't crack the top 15.

 

I think we've adequately addressed all the factors that makes the metric weak...on its own.

 

EDIT: I guess what I'm saying is that I think we'd be able to draw many more conclusions from this ONE stat if we knew more about how the teams finished in all the categories that would impact it. And three and outs would absolutely impact it, unless the majority of a team's voluminous three and outs came after turnovers or good ST's positioning. A three and out from your own 20, and your opponent is likely taking close to mid-field.

 

OMFG here we go with Tyrod causing Rex to suck for 6 years again.

 

Didn't a bunch of you spend three days in another thread, hand-in-hand, congratulating one another on your misunderstood desires for balanced, reasonable, constructive dialogue?

Edited May 24, 2016 by The Big Cat

[Mikie2times]

 

I think we've adequately addressed all the factors that makes the metric weak...on its own.

 

EDIT: I guess what I'm saying is that I think we'd be able to draw many more conclusions from this ONE stat if we knew more about how the teams finished in all the categories that would impact it. And three and outs would absolutely impact it, unless the majority of a team's voluminous three and outs came after turnovers or good ST's positioning. A three and out from your own 20, and your opponent is likely taking close to mid-field.

I don't expect you to think I would provide all the data you're requesting, but let's simplify. Let's look at average yards per offensive drive (the encompasses short fields based on three and outs as well as turnovers). So Buffalo ranked 27th in 2014 in yards per offensive drive, yet 7th in YPPT on defense. So while Rex did suffer from poor offenses in the past, that doesn't make performing efficiently in this area impossible. The Bills 2014 squad beat the best year Rex ever had as an HC with the 27th worst offense. Here is the data when he was with Baltimore. Again, a unique ability to be top 10 in yards and horrible in YPPT. All we need to do is finish 1st or 2nd in the NFL in Yards and we can be efficient as a defense in Rex's system. That or a delorean.

 

2015 19 15

2014 6 30

2013 11 23

2012 8 25

2011 5 29

2010 3 14

2009 1 8

2008 2 3

2007 6 30

2006 1 1

2005 5 19

Edited May 24, 2016 by KzooMike

[Big C]

Where does 3.14159265359 come into play at ?

I think we are looking for 1.61803398875

 

Or maybe 23?

Edited May 24, 2016 by Big C

[jr1]

Forget math. You just need to be the alpha

[machine gun kelly]

Keep it simple. Points allowed and yards allowed over time tells more than enough of the story.

[BarleyNY]

I think we are looking for 1.61803398875

Or maybe 23?

Wow. A golden ratio reference. I'm floored.

[hondo in seattle]

YPPT is how many yards it takes to generate one point. It can be measured for both offense and defense. It's not common at all to see consistency year over year in this metric, especially on defense. It is common for this metric to have a regression to the mean if teams start to deviate too much. If you want to make a few wagers next year, take a look at what teams are falling outside of standard deviation in YPPT and I would bet you more often than not you're looking at a team with value. They're generating yards or stopping yards at a rate that isn't reflective of the league average PPG based on the rate of yards allowed. The stat itself is influenced by many factors. Offense, turnovers, ST's, defensive 3rd down %/RZ/big plays. A lot of noise goes into it, but most years, the big players come postseason time are top 5 in either offense, defense, or both. Rex seems talk about leading the lead in defense a lot. When he says that, he's always referring to yards and not points. After running this data, I can see why.

 

2015 #19 Yards, #15 YPPT

2014 #6 Yards, #30 YPPT

2013 #11 Yards, #23 YPPT

2012 #8 Yards, #25 YPPT

2011 #5 Yards, #29 YPPT

2010 #3 Yards, #14 YPPT

2009 #1 Yards, #8 YPPT

 

Trust me when I say the consistency of this profile can't be explained by offensive futility. Buffalo Ranked #4 in Yards and #7 in YPPT in defense in 2014. You don't see this type of consistency on defense each year and if you do, it's usually only a result of an elite defense, 2-3 years max, and the YPPT is too the positive against yards, not too the negative. Further, you don't see championship teams with poor YPPT efficiency. It's a heck of a lot easier to generate points with the yards you have and be more efficient, than have to generate more yards to make up for inefficiency.

 

This is a death blow to my confidence level. Playoff teams don't finish poorly in this area, the consistency is overwhelming for the stat itself. If games were only one with yards and not points we would have one of the best. As is, this appears to be the anti bend but don't break. More like never bend, ever, and either win on that series or break in half.

 

 

Yep, his mediocrity with YPPT is a "death blow." Yet the Jets made it to the AFC Championship games in 2009 and 2010. If not on the strength of Rex's defense, did the Jets pass their way to the AFC Championship games on the strength of Sanchez's arm?

 

In those years, the Jets D was ranked #1 and #3 respectively in yards allowed - but only #8 and #14 in YPPT. So which stat more accurately predicts the success the Jets enjoyed those years.

 

 

There are so many stats out there, if you want us to (1) believe YPPT better correlates to winning than the others, and (2) YPPT shows Rex will be a failure in Buffalo, I think you need to make a stronger argument.

 

Personally, I'm a simple guy. As I see it, other teams try to gain yards on their way to scoring points. For a long while (Baltimore included), Rex was good at fielding defenses that made it difficult for other teams to gain those yards. So I'm cautiously optimistic about Rex's ability to run a good D in Buffalo.

[chris heff]

Where does 3.14159265359 come into play at ?

I like Pi.

[4merper4mer]

I don't expect you to think I would provide all the data you're requesting, but let's simplify. Let's look at average yards per offensive drive (the encompasses short fields based on three and outs as well as turnovers). So Buffalo ranked 27th in 2014 in yards per offensive drive, yet 7th in YPPT on defense. So while Rex did suffer from poor offenses in the past, that doesn't make performing efficiently in this area impossible. The Bills 2014 squad beat the best year Rex ever had as an HC with the 27th worst offense. Here is the data when he was with Baltimore. Again, a unique ability to be top 10 in yards and horrible in YPPT. All we need to do is finish 1st or 2nd in the NFL in Yards and we can be efficient as a defense in Rex's system. That or a delorean.

 

2015 19 15

2014 6 30

2013 11 23

2012 8 25

2011 5 29

2010 3 14

2009 1 8

2008 2 3

2007 6 30

2006 1 1

2005 5 19

 

 

Stop using a single defensive statistic to refute his notion that a single offensive statistic is the cause for our horrible defensive results.

 

Personally I disagree with both assertions. Neither a single bad offensive stat nor a single bad defensive stat is the cause. A single bad coach is actually the cause.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

There are advanced stats from like 10 different websites that take many more factors into account than this metric. They would all agree we were bad last year. They would also all agree that many of Rex's defenses were good to very good.

Edited May 24, 2016 by dneveu

[4merper4mer]

There are advanced stats from like 10 different websites that take many more factors into account than this metric. They would all agree we were bad last year. They would also all agree that many of Rex's defenses were good to very good.

 

They would also agree that the Model T Ford was truly innovative and would lose this year's Indy 500 by a lot.

Edited May 24, 2016 by 4merper4mer

[YattaOkasan]

I wasn't basing that opinion at all on the data I presented. I'm cautious to draw many hard conclusion on the data I presented. Other than 1. His consistency in this area is concerning 2. Something is likely creating consistency in this area or many somethings and it's possible those something still exist. 3. Poor performance in this area is a death blow.

Thanks for responding. You had gotten into a part about 3rd down LBs which was where I got concerned. The inconsistency is interesting. I would love to play around with the data set if you would share the source (PM if you like). Thanks again.

[dave mcbride]

YPPT is how many yards it takes to generate one point. It can be measured for both offense and defense. It's not common at all to see consistency year over year in this metric, especially on defense. It is common for this metric to have a regression to the mean if teams start to deviate too much. If you want to make a few wagers next year, take a look at what teams are falling outside of standard deviation in YPPT and I would bet you more often than not you're looking at a team with value. They're generating yards or stopping yards at a rate that isn't reflective of the league average PPG based on the rate of yards allowed. The stat itself is influenced by many factors. Offense, turnovers, ST's, defensive 3rd down %/RZ/big plays. A lot of noise goes into it, but most years, the big players come postseason time are top 5 in either offense, defense, or both. Rex seems talk about leading the lead in defense a lot. When he says that, he's always referring to yards and not points. After running this data, I can see why.

 

2015 #19 Yards, #15 YPPT

2014 #6 Yards, #30 YPPT

2013 #11 Yards, #23 YPPT

2012 #8 Yards, #25 YPPT

2011 #5 Yards, #29 YPPT

2010 #3 Yards, #14 YPPT

2009 #1 Yards, #8 YPPT

 

Trust me when I say the consistency of this profile can't be explained by offensive futility. Buffalo Ranked #4 in Yards and #7 in YPPT in defense in 2014. You don't see this type of consistency on defense each year and if you do, it's usually only a result of an elite defense, 2-3 years max, and the YPPT is too the positive against yards, not too the negative. Further, you don't see championship teams with poor YPPT efficiency. It's a heck of a lot easier to generate points with the yards you have and be more efficient, than have to generate more yards to make up for inefficiency.

 

This is a death blow to my confidence level. Playoff teams don't finish poorly in this area, the consistency is overwhelming for the stat itself. If games were only one with yards and not points we would have one of the best. As is, this appears to be the anti bend but don't break. More like never bend, ever, and either win on that series or break in half.

 

The Jets' defense average drive start position over the years (with a lower ranking meaning that opposing offenses were closer to the end zone):

 

2009: 13

2010: 5

2011: 21

2012: 23

2013: 26

2014: 23

2015: 21 (Bills)

 

That's a pretty telling stat line.

 

There are other stats that factor in too: turnover percentage per drive for both the Jets offense and defense; percentage of points allowed per drive, etc. The fact that the Bills turned the ball over so infrequently last year helped the Bills defense's points allowed ranking. No pick sixes, I don't think ...

Edited May 24, 2016 by dave mcbride

[metzelaars_lives]

This statistic is basically a measure of your "bend-but-not-break-edness." If you had two defenses who each gave up the same number of points but one team gave up way less yards, then the team that gave up way more yards would have a way better YPPT. Which one is a better defense? You act like Rex is somehow trying to deceive people by talking about where his defenses "ranked." In the 30+ years I've been a football fan, when anyone says this or that team has the whatever-th ranked offense or defense, they're talking about yards. Period. Points allowed is just as good (and probably a better) measure than points. But YPPT is useless and here's why: You could have a team give up an historic amount of yards and only the 7th most points. They could have an excellent YPPT. You could have a team give up historically few yards and allow the 7th fewest points and their YPPT could suck. It just doesn't matter man. As an earlier poster said, just stick with where his defenses ranked in yards and points allowed. That tells enough of the story.

Edited May 25, 2016 by metzelaars_lives