Are the Bills really in "Win Now" mode?

[John from Riverside]

We already are and hes an awful HC not sure what you watched last year

Your not understanding his point

 

The train has left the station....Rex IS the head coach

 

You fire him and do a complete reset again you are basically doing what the Browns do.....hire and fire

 

and

 

hire and fire

 

and

 

hire and fire

 

Give the guy a chance to install his defense and allow for the offense to continue to improve......

 

I think he gets this year

[Utah John]

As for "win now", the Bills were in "win now" LAST year. They figured the defense would naturally be strong again after being one of the best the past couple years and on top of that bringing in defensive guru Wrecks Ryan. They thought the problem was the offense so they spent current and future money and picks on offense. We got lucky and found a good QB, and despite injuries to Shady the offense did a lot better.

 

Ryan killed the defense, and the entire plan fell apart. Or you could say, the players refused to get on board with the new defense. I can feel a lot of sympathy for the players, who were brought to Buffalo to play a certain way, and did very well, and were then told to do things they were bad at. OK, I get that Wrecks was the coach, but this clash is what cost the Bills a playoff spot at long last, playing a relatively weak schedule and with at least on paper all the pieces in place.(Well, it was Wrecks mostly, but our backup QB cost us the game against the Jaguars.)

 

So after last year, all the chips were played, and now we're riding the horse that brung us. Against tougher opponents. Sure, sign me up again, I never learn.

[26CornerBlitz]

As for "win now", the Bills were in "win now" LAST year. They figured the defense would naturally be strong again after being one of the best the past couple years and on top of that bringing in defensive guru Wrecks Ryan. They thought the problem was the offense so they spent current and future money and picks on offense. We got lucky and found a good QB, and despite injuries to Shady the offense did a lot better.

 

Ryan killed the defense, and the entire plan fell apart. Or you could say, the players refused to get on board with the new defense. I can feel a lot of sympathy for the players, who were brought to Buffalo to play a certain way, and did very well, and were then told to do things they were bad at. OK, I get that Wrecks was the coach, but this clash is what cost the Bills a playoff spot at long last, playing a relatively weak schedule and with at least on paper all the pieces in place.(Well, it was Wrecks mostly, but our backup QB cost us the game against the Jaguars.)

 

So after last year, all the chips were played, and now we're riding the horse that brung us. Against tougher opponents. Sure, sign me up again, I never learn.

 

How is this true when they have had four DCs with four different systems in the last four seasons?

[Ronin]

If we are going to judge him as a GM, let's judge him as the GM.

 

OK, but you won't settle for that either.

 

Three 1st round picks on his watch, used for Manuel and Watkins. That's a helluva hole to dig out of. The rest of his drafts don't dig him out.

 

Then there's this 23-25 record he has with what appears to be headed for a sub-.500 record this season.

 

I'm not sure what you judge him by, but that's how GMs are judged in this league.

 

Not to mention his stubbornness in hanging onto Manuel, his lone-ranger approach to letting FredEx go, and now this nonsense with Laswson.

Your not understanding his point

 

The train has left the station....Rex IS the head coach

 

You fire him and do a complete reset again you are basically doing what the Browns do.....hire and fire

 

and

 

hire and fire

 

and

 

hire and fire

 

Give the guy a chance to install his defense and allow for the offense to continue to improve......

 

I think he gets this year

 

That's called a pattern. In this case it's also called a symptom.

 

Causing symptoms are root problems. Perhaps if we dwelt on the core problem, then those symptoms wouldn't exist.

 

Many of us expected Pegula to make the tough decision(s) and get rid of the problem(s), but he chose to act like Wilson II and did the exact opposite, dug in on them.

 

So here we are. WEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeee....................

As for "win now", the Bills were in "win now" LAST year. They figured the defense would naturally be strong again after being one of the best the past couple years and on top of that bringing in defensive guru Wrecks Ryan. They thought the problem was the offense so they spent current and future money and picks on offense. We got lucky and found a good QB, and despite injuries to Shady the offense did a lot better.

 

Ryan killed the defense, and the entire plan fell apart. Or you could say, the players refused to get on board with the new defense. I can feel a lot of sympathy for the players, who were brought to Buffalo to play a certain way, and did very well, and were then told to do things they were bad at. OK, I get that Wrecks was the coach, but this clash is what cost the Bills a playoff spot at long last, playing a relatively weak schedule and with at least on paper all the pieces in place.(Well, it was Wrecks mostly, but our backup QB cost us the game against the Jaguars.)

 

So after last year, all the chips were played, and now we're riding the horse that brung us. Against tougher opponents. Sure, sign me up again, I never learn.

 

Agreed.

 

Ryan had players last season that had logged 54 sacks a year prior and could only get 21 out of those same players.

 

With some of those having left, he still has players that logged 35 sacks in 2014, but of course "he has no talent on D." Of the players that logged those 35 in '14, he managed to get 12 from them.

 

And he says he needs talent.

 

That should speak for itself.

Edited May 25, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[Deranged Rhino]

 

OK, but you won't settle for that either.

 

Three 1st round picks on his watch, used for Manuel and Watkins. That's a helluva hole to dig out of. The rest of his drafts don't dig him out.

 

Conveniently left out of this narrative are two significant points:

1) Doug wasn't the GM when Manuel was picked, and

2) The Bills traded down and grabbed an extra pick (which mitigated risks and eventually turned into McCoy) before taking EJ.

[FireChan]

 

Conveniently left out of this narrative are two significant points:

1) Doug wasn't the GM when Manuel was picked, and

2) The Bills traded down and grabbed an extra pick (which mitigated risks and eventually turned into McCoy) before taking EJ.

You aren't insuinuating that Doug did the trade but not the EJ pick, right?

[Deranged Rhino]

You aren't insuinuating that Doug did the trade but not the EJ pick, right?

 

Not at all. That's why I said "the Bills".

[John from Riverside]

"

That's called a pattern. In this case it's also called a symptom.

 

Causing symptoms are root problems. Perhaps if we dwelt on the core problem, then those symptoms wouldn't exist.

 

Many of us expected Pegula to make the tough decision(s) and get rid of the problem(s), but he chose to act like Wilson II and did the exact opposite, dug in on them.

 

So here we are. WEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeee...................."

 

OK....so lets get away from that pattern.....allow a coach to actually coach the team for longer then a year before breaking out the fire and pitchforks

You aren't insuinuating that Doug did the trade but not the EJ pick, right?

I want to know why we want to hang Whaley for drafting EJ Manuel

 

- He traded down to do it and got us two second round picks

- EJ didnt work out....are we also going to hang all the other GM's that take first round QBs that dont work out....cuz THEY OFTEN DONT WORK OUT

- I find it interesting how people were banging the gavel (not you) for that QB from Memphis in the middle rounds that we did not take....when it would have been exactly the same thing we did with EJ. Credit Doug for not making that mistake and actually taking a player with solid potential NFL talent.

[SoFFacet]

 

Well OK, having said that then, one would think that by pure laws of averages that after say 10 seasons then that every team would be .500 or so, right?

 

Since Whaley's been here, the only common denominator during that stretch, we are 39-57, or .406 and trending downward.

 

At some point people need to start saying, OK, we've tried this and that under Whaley and clearly he's underperforming, it's time to move on.

 

At best for us, what DR was suggesting, is that in a purely odds-based system, at the end of the day over the longer term, all teams will trend towards .500. I can run an analysis, and have in the past, to show that we're on the losing side of those odds.

 

But clearly it isn't just odds every season. Clearly how well teams are run, coached, managed, etc. factors in heavily, which is only bad news for us and Whaley.

 

As well, the other stuff you mention, you cannot have it both ways. Luck, schedules, injuries, etc., all happen to all teams and that is something that should trend towards a central average for all teams over the long haul, for the most part. But you cannot state that as if we're the only team affected by them. That's an irrational bias.

 

I'll suggest now that Watkins is going to limp through this season again and even miss a significant number of games. I expect him to be IR'd at some point given his injury. Either way, if that happens there's going to be so much work to do to bring this team up to competitiveness in the next couple of seasons, so much work. We'll be starting 20 seasons of playoff futility in the eyes.

 

Pot meet kettle. You are tripping hard on the so-called "law of averages":

 

 

The law of averages is a layman's term for a belief that the statistical distribution of outcomes among members of a small sample must reflect the distribution of outcomes across the population as a whole.

As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur.

 

 

So, you set out a long-term benchmark, disingenuously selected an inappropriate statistic (39-57) to fail that benchmark, neglected the more appropriate statistic (23-25) because it contradicted your argument, and dismissed contextual considerations because you are apparently unaware that in this case the sample size of outcomes is never going to be large enough for your line of reasoning to have a rational basis.

Edited May 26, 2016 by SoFFacet

[billsfan_34]

Your not understanding his point

 

The train has left the station....Rex IS the head coach

 

You fire him and do a complete reset again you are basically doing what the Browns do.....hire and fire

 

and

 

hire and fire

 

and

 

hire and fire

 

Give the guy a chance to install his defense and allow for the offense to continue to improve......

 

I think he gets this year

I understood his point and sure he is our HC but the wrong hire. We will stink it up this year and he will be gone imo.

[3rdand12]

I understood his point and sure he is our HC but the wrong hire. We will stink it up this year and he will be gone imo.

yay

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I understood his point and sure he is our HC but the wrong hire. We will stink it up this year and he will be gone imo.

 

roguetank

[26CornerBlitz]

@TBNSports

#Bills are going for broke, but they have to fix it if it breaks. @TyDunne's Power Take: http://bit.ly/1sC2yGQ

[CodeMonkey]

 

@TBNSports

#Bills are going for broke, but they have to fix it if it breaks. @TyDunne's Power Take: http://bit.ly/1sC2yGQ

 

I wonder if Pegula considered hiring Rex a gamble at the time. I doubt it. I even wonder if, in his mind, he considers any of what's been going on a gamble. Or if he has bought in, to use Rex's term.

 

[12Kachy]

I don't think you see the money thrown around at middling stars like McCoy and Clay if the Bills didn't think they were a few bounces from making a run.

I think the Bills are always in win now mode. After 15 seasons, the Super Bowl for the Bills is beating the team they play week 17 to knock them out of playoff contention. You don't want to be the losers all the time. Every year they go into the season win now. The problem in Buffalo has to be the quote above. Why do the Bills pay players so much? Is it a friendly front office? Whaley and Ryan smoking crack? No, it's Buffalo. No athlete goes into the Draft hoping for the Buffalo Bills to pick them to play in Buffalo As a native, I love Buffalo. But as a young 20 something or Free Agent, the last place they want to go to is the place known for snow mounds and four superbowl losses. The Bills have to pay Clay, McCoy, M.Williams (I know he gone) and players of that caliber more then a city with other attractions. The Rams will now start to get good free agents going to them because they are in LA. What FA is saying "man I want to go to Buffalo so I can watch the Bisons in the off season."? So are the Bills in win now mode? YES Sir. They are always in win now mode. After train wrecks of coaches brought in over the last 17 seasons, the Bills have to win now in order to attract FA and UDFA who can contribute to the depth of the team at a average cost. If they continue to lose, the team will continue to have to pay huge contracts to players in order to attract them to the team because the lack of winning and western NY Blue Collar work ethic just won't cut it.

Edited May 30, 2016 by 12Kachy

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I think the Bills are always in win now mode. After 15 seasons, the Super Bowl for the Bills is beating the team they play week 17 to knock them out of playoff contention. You don't want to be the losers all the time. Every year they go into the season win now. The problem in Buffalo has to be the quote above. Why do the Bills pay players so much? Is it a friendly front office? Whaley and Ryan smoking crack? No, it's Buffalo. No athlete goes into the Draft hoping for the Buffalo Bills to pick them to play in Buffalo As a native, I love Buffalo. But as a young 20 something or Free Agent, the last place they want to go to is the place known for snow mounds and four superbowl losses. The Bills have to pay Clay, McCoy, M.Williams (I know he gone) and players of that caliber more then a city with other attractions. The Rams will now start to get good free agents going to them because they are in LA. What FA is saying "man I want to go to Buffalo so I can watch the Bisons in the off season."? So are the Bills in win now mode? YES Sir. They are always in win now mode. After train wrecks of coaches brought in over the last 17 seasons, the Bills have to win now in order to attract FA and UDFA who can contribute to the depth of the team at a average cost. If they continue to lose, the team will continue to have to pay huge contracts to players in order to attract them to the team because the lack of winning and western NY Blue Collar work ethic just won't cut it.

 

We don't want or need those FA who would rather go to LA because it's "more fun".

 

I want players who love football We need more Kyles and Richies on this team.

[12Kachy]

 

We don't want or need those FA who would rather go to LA because it's "more fun".

 

I want players who love football We need more Kyles and Richies on this team.

I think everyone wants those guys you talk about. Remember, Richie didn't take a team discount to stay and wanted to be paid just like the next guy. Williams played well when he got his change but who knows if he makes the team this year. Overall, we all want guys who buy into the system, team, and city; however, those guys won't win you championships. They maybe get you to the playoffs. You need that one guy who has to be double blocked in order to not get to the QB, which frees the guys your talking about up to hit the qb. Until the Bills win and win a lot, the team will over pay to keep and bring in FAs. It's business.

[3rdand12]

I think everyone wants those guys you talk about. Remember, Richie didn't take a team discount to stay and wanted to be paid just like the next guy. Williams played well when he got his change but who knows if he makes the team this year. Overall, we all want guys who buy into the system, team, and city; however, those guys won't win you championships. They maybe get you to the playoffs. You need that one guy who has to be double blocked in order to not get to the QB, which frees the guys your talking about up to hit the qb. Until the Bills win and win a lot, the team will over pay to keep and bring in FAs. It's business.

I think Cogs did give a bit of a discount, and i recall he had suitors.

Hughes came back into the fold at less then most of us expected. And Dareus might well have gotten more elsewhere. Just guessing on that though.

Players have done some nice renegotiating too.

I think there is buy in.

On the other side,

Glenn got paid and Dareus got paid, those guys are worth every penny. I think its a combination of elite players , very strong players and a strong contingent of believers who can execute the play. Plus the rooks and UDFAs fill the ranks with a strong mindset to grow into the starter

[BarleyNY]

I think Cogs did give a bit of a discount, and i recall he had suitors.

Hughes came back into the fold at less then most of us expected. And Dareus might well have gotten more elsewhere. Just guessing on that though.

Players have done some nice renegotiating too.

I think there is buy in.

On the other side,

Glenn got paid and Dareus got paid, those guys are worth every penny. I think its a combination of elite players , very strong players and a strong contingent of believers who can execute the play. Plus the rooks and UDFAs fill the ranks with a strong mindset to grow into the starter

Whaley & Co. have been giving some very large guarantees in the larger contracts. Much larger than what is standard practice in the NFL. It seems to be their way of getting deals done. Buffalo hasn't been a primo market and they seem to be utilizing the larger guarantees in lieu of bigger overall contracts. It carries some significant risk, but it's not the worst strategy. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

[3rdand12]

Whaley & Co. have been giving some very large guarantees in the larger contracts. Much larger than what is standard practice in the NFL. It seems to be their way of getting deals done. Buffalo hasn't been a primo market and they seem to be utilizing the larger guarantees in lieu of bigger overall contracts. It carries some significant risk, but it's not the worst strategy. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

Yes , I did read and follow that feature of the Bills method of retention. And i am glad you pointed it out because not all contracts that state 15 million per yer are NOT created equal.

 

Bills have been trending to retaining the better players just recently. Whether the method is sound , i am glad Buffalo retained the ones they have this year. We should watch this play out over the next couple years