Are the Bills really in "Win Now" mode?

[Ronin]

 

I expected the playoffs at the start of last year, as I'm sure everyone in the Bills' organization did. But then again, I think every team in the NFL operates expecting to win. That's the mindset these people have, pro athletes and front office executives are some of the most competitive people on Earth by their very nature. Competitive people expect to win every time they compete, and some aren't afraid to tell you that.

 

As Bills fans we've seen both types of coaches/personalities from "It's hard to win in the NFL" to "We're going". Both talking points rankle fans in different ways, but personally if I had to choose I'd rather have my team professing "they're going" (even if they don't) than to lower expectations by saying "it's hard to win".

 

In the end, both positions are just empty words. Just like the term "win now". It's meaningless in reality. Every team wants to win. Most every team expects to win. But when the season is over there are 31 losers and only 1 winner.

 

I don't know about that, were the Bills "losers" in the early '90s? I wouldn't say so. Sure, we should have won one or two of those SBs, particularly the first and last, but still, one was proud to be a Bills fan.

 

I mean should Panthers fans call their team a loser as you just did? I don't think so, their future is bright. SBs are elusive, but playing well and consistently are not, the key being good management/coaching.

 

Also, while every team expects to win, all fans don't, some realize that their team is more rebuilding, or a "year away" kinda thing. Fans of 31 other teams besides say the Browns know that they likely aren't going anywhere this season although I'm sure you can find the counterpart to people here in their forums suggesting that they'll make the playoffs or even win the division for one or more reasons.

 

Team, fans, media (regional), media (national), etc., all have different takes. If the players don't believe that they can make the playoffs then you question their heart, and they should believe that or they're in the wrong professions. But fans don't need to believe anything of the sort, neither does media, of that team or otherwise.

 

There's a big difference between a coach or player saying "if we can simply go .500 this season it'll be a promising season," and a fan or writer saying that. The players' reality is different than ours.

 

It's kind of like if you've ever played in a flag football league with former pro or collegiate players from a decent school, you're just stunned and amazed at the speed of the player etc. You think to yourself man, this guy would be great in the NFL. But if you're objective, you'll know and understand that the entire NFL is filled with such speed and even faster and better in other ways which is why that player has not made it.

 

It's all a matter of perspective. Team personnel, particularly GM and FO, have no choice but to say the most glaringly postiive things even though people know that many of them are ridiculous statements or lies. We've seen some of that with Whaley, Ryan, and our team.

 

For me it would be sufficient to simply know that at least there's a legitimate chance that the Bills could win the division and make a ruckus in the playoffs with perhaps a championship if the cards all fall well. I mean look at the Pats, since 2004 they've almost always been the preseason favorites to win the SB but have won it only once, and with more controversy on top of that. Even when they were 18-0 in '07 and Kraft had begun construction on "Perfection Park."

 

Either way, no objective person looks at our team and truly believes that we're going to the playoffs much less win the division or more. It's far too disarrayed, too poorly coached, wrongly managed, etc. I mean we were the first team to take a hit from our drafting when Lawson got injured by an inert bag.

 

All the things that teams that accomplish those goals do, i.e. draft well, coach well, organize well, we do not do well. Until we do ....

 

As I've said, I haven't read one single article talking about how the entire inside of our D, meaning both ILBs and both of our Ss, are all not prone to good pass defense. That's enormous in today's OTM passing NFL, HUGE. Yet, apparently on one views it as a problem. They all will come later this season. Unfortunately. But the more important thing is why is it that way? Clearly whomever designed the D and oversaw the drafting, AHEM, Whaley & Ryan, either ignored that or simply don't know what they're doing. I'll defer to the latter.

 

Given their track records to date otherwise, and in Ryan's case withouth having both Ray Lewis and Ed Reed on his team, something we'll never even come close to getting a sniff at, particularly with Whaley at the top of this debacle, there's no reason to expect otherwise, is there.

Edited May 24, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[USABuffaloFan]

I don't think you see the money thrown around at middling stars like McCoy and Clay if the Bills didn't think they were a few bounces from making a run.

Started with getting Mario Williams, they were on the away. 9-7 just needing some offense. Whaley lost Marrone with that stupid contract with a opt out. He could have recovered keeping Swartz or promoting him and/o hiring a new offensive HC to compliment. He got the whole thing wrong and continued by paying way to much for the offensive pickups that they had to release Mario (course didn't hurt so much with poor play). Bills have no choices after giving Darius huge contract. They now either win over next 2 years or they will sell everyone off in trades for multiple picks over a 2-3 year period. They will basically follow the model the Sabres used to rebuild. Doubtful the Bills make it to the playoffs, always seem to shoot themselves in the foot, ie.. 1st pick this year has little shot at contributing.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

I don't know about that, were the Bills "losers" in the early '90s? I wouldn't say so. Sure, we should have won one or two of those SBs, particularly the first and last, but still, one was proud to be a Bills fan.

 

I'm speaking from a players'/coaches'/executives' perspective, not as a fan. As a fan you're absolutely correct that it's not an accurate description. But for the guys actually competing in the league it's more of a zero sum game. Titles and championships are legacy markers and what everyone works to achieve, but there can only be one "winning" team each year. That's what makes the sport great.

 

But again, yes, for fans it's not the same equation.

[SoFFacet]

They promised playoffs. They dusted off Kelly & Co. from mothballs and paraded everyone around, promised "a bully," absolutely no one involved with the team took an alternate position.

 

If that's not win now I have no idea what is.

 

None of those things have anything to do with being in "win now mode" or not...

 

This is Whaley's 4th season as GM. Suppose we finish less than .500 now, why should he be kept on with records of 6-10, 9-7, 8-8, and a losing season (again, assuming that it is), and 23-25 to date otherwise trending downward, which clearly shows regression, not improvement?

 

Again, if he were the GM of the Raiders, Browns, or another team with that record I cannot imagine one single person wishing he'd come here to be our GM much less not making fun of him.

 

Context-less, outcome-oriented evaluation is an illogical thought process. For instance, strength of schedule is a factor that varies year to year outside of a team's control, and on that basis alone a team could improve or decline in a vacuum and not wind up with a delta-record that indicates that that is so. Same goes for injury luck and even just bounces within each game. Each game result is a probabilistic outcome and all that a GM can do is improve a team's chances.

 

When you evaluate a GM you need dissociate from the results and look at the decisions. Did they increase the chances of winning? Did they make sense given the information available at the time they were made? Because you don't hire a new GM to make different decisions than his predecessor in the same situations. He's going to face new situations, and all that you will be able to ask of him is to make decisions that increase the team's chances of winning, and make sense given the information available at the time.

[major]

Last year they were in "win now" mode. Not sure what this year is

[Ronin]

 

I'm speaking from a players'/coaches'/executives' perspective, not as a fan. As a fan you're absolutely correct that it's not an accurate description. But for the guys actually competing in the league it's more of a zero sum game. Titles and championships are legacy markers and what everyone works to achieve, but there can only be one "winning" team each year. That's what makes the sport great.

 

But again, yes, for fans it's not the same equation.

 

Well OK, having said that then, one would think that by pure laws of averages that after say 10 seasons then that every team would be .500 or so, right?

 

Since Whaley's been here, the only common denominator during that stretch, we are 39-57, or .406 and trending downward.

 

At some point people need to start saying, OK, we've tried this and that under Whaley and clearly he's underperforming, it's time to move on.

 

None of those things have anything to do with being in "win now mode" or not...

 

 

Context-less, outcome-oriented evaluation is an illogical thought process. For instance, strength of schedule is a factor that varies year to year outside of a team's control, and on that basis alone a team could improve or decline in a vacuum and not wind up with a delta-record that indicates that that is so. Same goes for injury luck and even just bounces within each game. Each game result is a probabilistic outcome and all that a GM can do is improve a team's chances.

 

When you evaluate a GM you need dissociate from the results and look at the decisions. Did they increase the chances of winning? Did they make sense given the information available at the time they were made? Because you don't hire a new GM to make different decisions than his predecessor in the same situations. He's going to face new situations, and all that you will be able to ask of him is to make decisions that increase the team's chances of winning, and make sense given the information available at the time.

 

See the prior post to DR.

 

At best for us, what DR was suggesting, is that in a purely odds-based system, at the end of the day over the longer term, all teams will trend towards .500. I can run an analysis, and have in the past, to show that we're on the losing side of those odds.

 

But clearly it isn't just odds every season. Clearly how well teams are run, coached, managed, etc. factors in heavily, which is only bad news for us and Whaley.

 

As well, the other stuff you mention, you cannot have it both ways. Luck, schedules, injuries, etc., all happen to all teams and that is something that should trend towards a central average for all teams over the long haul, for the most part. But you cannot state that as if we're the only team affected by them. That's an irrational bias.

Last year they were in "win now" mode. Not sure what this year is

 

This year makes the desperation of Whaley and now Ryan make the desperation that reached for Watkins look almost benign.

 

If it's true that these guys get pink slips if the team doesn't post a winning season, then one of the dumbest things that Pegula could have done is what he's doing. Their decison making will impact this team negatively for at least two seasons after that.

 

The odds of a new coach and new GM to a lesser extent, seeing the talent brought on by W/R being anything close to identical to what they'd want are absurdly remote. And in the interests of sanity please, let's hope they would be different.

 

Not to mention that players like Ragland and Brown are hardly prototypical ILBs in the modern era NFL, in fact they're quite the opposite, they're both 2-down LBs that will be required to play 3 downs.

 

I'll suggest now that Watkins is going to limp through this season again and even miss a significant number of games. I expect him to be IR'd at some point given his injury. Either way, if that happens there's going to be so much work to do to bring this team up to competitiveness in the next couple of seasons, so much work. We'll be starting 20 seasons of playoff futility in the eyes.

Edited May 24, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[GunnerBill]

Cool story Ghost. Except the two seasons that have followed offseasons for which he has had control Whaley's record (and I don't buy the GMs should be directly judged by records in the way coaches are) is 17-15 (above .500). The last Bills GM to have a two year stretch above .500 was John Butler.

 

That isn't to say he isn't at risk if the 2016 Bills flame out... he might be... but to criticise him based on the W-L to this point makes little sense. He has made moves that have given this team a better chance to win that for me is inarguable and the record rather indicates that too.

[billsfan_34]

When you havent made the playoffs for 16 years shouldnt it be win now?

[26CornerBlitz]

When you havent made the playoffs for 16 years shouldnt it be win now?

 

It's okay for fans to have this perspective, but no way the football team itself should operate with that mindset.

[billsfan_34]

 

It's okay for fans to have this perspective, but no way the football team itself should operate with that mindset.

Agree to disagree- 7-9 this year and Rex will be sent packing. I think they do have a win now attitude but its not going to happen. Teams will cram the ball down our defenses throat.

[BarleyNY]

 

This is Whaley's 4th season as GM. Suppose we finish less than .500 now, why should he be kept on with records of 6-10, 9-7, 8-8, and a losing season (again, assuming that it is), and 23-25 to date otherwise trending downward, which clearly shows regression, not improvement?

 

Again, if he were the GM of the Raiders, Browns, or another team with that record I cannot imagine one single person wishing he'd come here to be our GM much less not making fun of him.

 

I addressed my thoughts on this in another post, but I'll rehash it here since I cut my response to you short. I'd call their seats warm now, but that could change quickly. Another .500ish season probably gives both Whaley and Rex another year, but with very hot seats. A very bad season and we probably would see them get the boot. Texture is important. Are they competitive throughout the season? Does Rex still have support of his players? At some point things like injuries, lack of talent at important positions, etc. aren't excuses, they're self-created problems. However it works out, I'd expect Whaley and Rex to stay or go together.

 

I think I was wrong about Rex. I really thought he was a good hire, but he really disappointed me with the way he handled the defense last season. He's going to have to fix what ails that defense to change my mind this season. Whaley is more interesting to me. He's done well with some things (Darby!), but is raw (see recent comments made to media as an example) and has made a fair number of moves that I really didn't like. Since Rex got here it sure seems like Whaley is shopping for the groceries that Rex is telling him to buy, but I don't think that saves him if the housecleaning happens. Pegula didn't hire him and there's a reason his extension goes through the same season as Rex's contract. Whaley might just need a bit more seasoning under a quality GM and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a very good one down the road.

[Beef Jerky]

Agree to disagree- 7-9 this year and Rex will be sent packing. I think they do have a win now attitude but its not going to happen. Teams will cram the ball down our defenses throat.

Yea send Rex Packing so we can be Cleveland 2.0

[26CornerBlitz]

Agree to disagree- 7-9 this year and Rex will be sent packing. I think they do have a win now attitude but its not going to happen. Teams will cram the ball down our defenses throat.

 

Not going to argue about conjecture. We'll see what happens.

[Ronin]

Cool story Ghost. Except the two seasons that have followed offseasons for which he has had control Whaley's record (and I don't buy the GMs should be directly judged by records in the way coaches are) is 17-15 (above .500). The last Bills GM to have a two year stretch above .500 was John Butler.

 

That isn't to say he isn't at risk if the 2016 Bills flame out... he might be... but to criticise him based on the W-L to this point makes little sense. He has made moves that have given this team a better chance to win that for me is inarguable and the record rather indicates that too.

 

He's been at least Asst. GM/Director of Personnel since 2010.

 

I realize that most people dismiss that, but it does have relevance despite wilful dismissal of that fact.

When you havent made the playoffs for 16 years shouldnt it be win now?

 

There isn't a GM or coach that we've had that hasn't promised playoffs during that time, including Whaley & Ryan. Hell, last year you would have thought that Ryan was running for POTUS given what he promised. Of course none of it materialized.

[BarleyNY]

Yea send Rex Packing so we can be Cleveland 2.0

It is usually better to move on quickly from a mistake than let it linger. If Pegula does not think that Rex and Whaley can be successful, then why not move quickly? Just make a good choice so you don't wind up flipping coaches and GMs every season.

 

And on a more depressing note, I see the fans on this board rip the Browns a lot as a horrific organization (and maybe I'm a bit sensitive to that since I'm from Cleveland). That's fair though because they have been so very bad for such a very long time. But the Bills are pretty close. Over the last 15 years the Bills have exactly 15 more wins than the Browns. That's an average of being exactly one win better per season than the team everyone uses as the reference point for being the biggest long term train wreck in the NFL.

[Ronin]

I addressed my thoughts on this in another post, but I'll rehash it here since I cut my response to you short. I'd call their seats warm now, but that could change quickly. Another .500ish season probably gives both Whaley and Rex another year, but with very hot seats. A very bad season and we probably would see them get the boot. Texture is important. Are they competitive throughout the season? Does Rex still have support of his players? At some point things like injuries, lack of talent at important positions, etc. aren't excuses, they're self-created problems. However it works out, I'd expect Whaley and Rex to stay or go together.

 

I think I was wrong about Rex. I really thought he was a good hire, but he really disappointed me with the way he handled the defense last season. He's going to have to fix what ails that defense to change my mind this season. Whaley is more interesting to me. He's done well with some things (Darby!), but is raw (see recent comments made to media as an example) and has made a fair number of moves that I really didn't like. Since Rex got here it sure seems like Whaley is shopping for the groceries that Rex is telling him to buy, but I don't think that saves him if the housecleaning happens. Pegula didn't hire him and there's a reason his extension goes through the same season as Rex's contract. Whaley might just need a bit more seasoning under a quality GM and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a very good one down the road.

 

I agree with you for the most part, but my point on W/R going after the season is simply that nothing official has been stated but that it's the prevalent viewpoint that if we don't make the playoffs they're both gone. All I'm saying is that I don't see anything concrete to that effect. In fact, I see to the contrary with Pegs giving Whaley that 3-year extension, IMO unearned.

 

As to Whaley, here's the thing, people credit him for no-brainer picks and trades. Hughes for Sheppard was a nothing-for-nothing trade at the time, neither team knew what they were getting, we essentially lucked out. Darby, the best cover-corner in that draft, with our need for cover corners, was also a no-brainer in the 2nd.

 

What's more important is how he's done in his six seasons with the team on our 1st rounders, and OK, we'll dismiss his first three years as Asst. GM/Dir. of Personnel, but in the last three years for three 1st-rounders (and a 4th), he's gotten Manuel and Watkins. That's hardly good. It's also terrible value and Watkins is one more injury away from being all but a bust.

 

If we don't go at least .500 again, then Pegula's going to start losing fans again and we'll slip into the same mode that we were in during Wilson's reign of ignorance, nepotism, and incompetence.

Yea send Rex Packing so we can be Cleveland 2.0

 

Maybe we shouldn't have hired Ryan so that we wouldn't be Cleveland 2.0.

 

Keep in mind that our playoff drought is now longer than any that Cleveland's ever had, and ours is presently ongoing to date in the modern era with no end in sight.

It is usually better to move on quickly from a mistake than let it linger. If Pegula does not think that Rex and Whaley can be successful, then why not move quickly? Just make a good choice so you don't wind up flipping coaches and GMs every season.

 

And on a more depressing note, I see the fans on this board rip the Browns a lot as a horrific organization (and maybe I'm a bit sensitive to that since I'm from Cleveland). That's fair though because they have been so very bad for such a very long time. But the Bills are pretty close. Over the last 15 years the Bills have exactly 15 more wins than the Browns. That's an average of being exactly one win better per season than the team everyone uses as the reference point for being the biggest long term train wreck in the NFL.

 

And a longer playoff futility. Agreed. If we weren't Bills fans the same people defending this team would be making a mockery of it.

 

Like most, I too drank the koolaid last year. I bought into the notion that Ryan was hamstrung by Idzhik etc. Jets fans calmly said wait and see. Well, turns out they were right. Ryan's part of their past problem, not part of our solution.

 

I mean they had a rookie head coach come in and damn near put the team in the playoffs and had them playing much better than Ryan ever did, on D particularly where essentially the same D improved from 24th to 9th in scoring, clearly partly due to the addition-by-subtraction of Ryan.

 

Meanwhile, consider things such as the following which I haven't heard one person mention, media or fan. Ryan claims, on record, that last season he tried to implement a hybrid defensive system between his and Schwartz's and that this year it's going to be all his.

 

Well, OK, but Schwartz didn't have DEs and DTs dropping into coverage, so apparently that was part of Ryan's hybrid half, ... it must be since it wasn't part of Schwartz's.

 

So, either we can expect more of the same, and perhaps devious move to say rush Darby UTM from the NT position too and more fun even, or Ryan's lying, or he simply doesn't know what he's doing and talking about. Those are the only choices. I'm not thrilled with any of the three prospects, the first and third for obvious reasons, the middle one because I don't care to be lied to as we have now since Polian's departure.

Edited May 25, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[GunnerBill]

 

He's been at least Asst. GM/Director of Personnel since 2010.

 

I realize that most people dismiss that, but it does have relevance despite wilful dismissal of that fact.

 

And was not calling the shots and did not have his own people. He has restructured the personnel section since his arrival, with the appointment of Monos, Fisher and the promotion of Hanrahan.

 

If we are going to judge him as a GM, let's judge him as the GM. I have been internally promoted at work and certainly would not want to be held responsible for every decision my old boss made because while I had a solid working relationship with him I didn't agree with every decision he made.

[thebandit27]

 

And was not calling the shots and did not have his own people. He has restructured the personnel section since his arrival, with the appointment of Monos, Fisher and the promotion of Hanrahan.

 

If we are going to judge him as a GM, let's judge him as the GM. I have been internally promoted at work and certainly would not want to be held responsible for every decision my old boss made because while I had a solid working relationship with him I didn't agree with every decision he made.

 

Exactly.

 

It's akin to judging Greg Roman based on Jim Harbaugh's record as a HC.

[BillsVet]

It's okay for fans to have this perspective, but no way the football team itself should operate with that mindset.

 

Tell that to ownership who are trying to market a brand which depends on the on-field product actually being a winner.

 

And tell that to career-minded individuals at OBD who know that in the NFL if you're not trying to win now you're getting closer to being fired.

[billsfan_34]

Yea send Rex Packing so we can be Cleveland 2.0

We already are and hes an awful HC not sure what you watched last year