Coach Tuesday Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Consensus "OMG that was a reach" picks are scarce. Cyrus Kouandjio was considered a first round talent by MANY.......and the Bills thought they got themselves a steal........but it's pretty obvious now that he is Frankenstein-esque at OT. Another bolt-neck who many thought was an early round talent was James Hardy. I think what you have to be aware of as an organization is that NEED clouds your vision. I think one of the things that Shaq and Ragnuts have in common with Kouandjio is that they were both easy, lazy evaluations.........I don't see either of these guys as real impact players......better college players than pros........but they essentially become *filler* early picks in draft evaluation........as in "well there has to be a true ILB somewhere in the top 50 and Ragnuts is a high profile ILB for the top program in the SEC". It's been brought up before but the reason that Seattle has such a talented roster is that they have a system of relatively efficient evaluation for pro potential that allows them to find overlooked talent all thru the draft. I think the Bills CLEARLY are on a completely different evaluation path. They draft a lot of big name, big program, former elite HS recruits and perhaps over-decorated-as-a-result players and the reality is that those things don't mean much on the next level and probably should carry less weight at OBD than they appear to. Ironically Tim Ruskel, the previous GM of the Seahawks, had a similar approach to Whaley - he preferred prospects from established programs. Didn't work too well. It's a lazy draft/scouting strategy to be sure.
BADOLBILZ Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Ironically Tim Ruskel, the previous GM of the Seahawks, had a similar approach to Whaley - he preferred prospects from established programs. Didn't work too well. It's a lazy draft/scouting strategy to be sure. I think part of the issue is that we like the things we choose to acquire to have nice back stories.........that's marketing 101.......a good story sells the product as much....or more......than the inherent quality. Doug Whaley has a tendency to collect players that other people had deemed high pedigree long before. It becomes part of the evaluation........when it really has no bearing on whether they can play at the NFL level or not. As a scout you have to know that the Tom Lemming's of the world that evaluate HS talent do as much guessing and evaluation by suggestion as they do actual evaluation...........it's just too hard to narrow that field down. They use the same flawed methods as DW appears to.........if Cyrus Kouandjio hadn't been an imposing specimen at the famed DeMatha High School would he have been considered the top recruit in the nation by TSN going into his senior year? And beside the pitfall of being influenced by the back story.......even if the accolades were deserving then........you have to understand that players change a lot physically from 17-22. They separate from each other.......see Khalil Mack for an example. And as for the injuries go........I know it's his job to downplay Sammy's injuries........but some guys actually aren't hampered by injury all the time. The proper response to Sammy-is-inury-prone criticism is something like "we know he has to be healthy for us to play to our potential and we think that as he gains experience he will have less injuries going forward." Rex said exactly what I figured might be the main problem with Sammy..........that Watkins works too hard physically in his training. He needs to learn to work smarter and preserve his body so he isn't on the shelf unable to practice etc...
What a Tuel Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 And as for the injuries go........I know it's his job to downplay Sammy's injuries........but some guys actually aren't hampered by injury all the time. The proper response to Sammy-is-inury-prone criticism is something like "we know he has to be healthy for us to play to our potential and we think that as he gains experience he will have less injuries going forward." Rex said exactly what I figured might be the main problem with Sammy..........that Watkins works too hard physically in his training. He needs to learn to work smarter and preserve his body so he isn't on the shelf unable to practice etc... Top WR's that have missed more or the same amount of games as Sammy (3 games) while he was in the league: DeSean Jackson (7 games) Odell Beckham (4 games) Dez Bryant (7 games) AJ Green (3 games) Brandin Cooks (6 games) Kelvin Benjamin (16 games) Alshon Jeffery (7 games) Jordy Nelson (16 games) Keenan Allen (10 games) Steve Smith (9 games) Brandon Marshall (3 games) Julian Edelman (9 games) Top WR's who haven't: Mike Evans (2 games) Calvin Johnson (1 game) Doug Baldwin (0 games) Larry Fitzgerald (2 games) Demaryius Thomas (0 games) TY Hilton (1 game) DeAndre Hopkins (0 games) Antonio Brown (0 games) Remember this is only for the 2014/15 seasons and of course excludes the nagging injuries that they play through. Sammy seems on the good side of average, don't you think?
FireChan Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Top WR's that have missed more or the same amount of games as Sammy (3 games) while he was in the league: DeSean Jackson (7 games) Odell Beckham (4 games) Dez Bryant (7 games) AJ Green (3 games) Brandin Cooks (6 games) Kelvin Benjamin (16 games) Alshon Jeffery (7 games) Jordy Nelson (16 games) Keenan Allen (10 games) Steve Smith (9 games) Brandon Marshall (3 games) Julian Edelman (9 games) Top WR's who haven't: Mike Evans (2 games) Calvin Johnson (1 game) Doug Baldwin (0 games) Larry Fitzgerald (2 games) Demaryius Thomas (0 games) TY Hilton (1 game) DeAndre Hopkins (0 games) Antonio Brown (0 games) Remember this is only for the 2014/15 seasons and of course excludes the nagging injuries that they play through. Sammy seems on the good side of average, don't you think? Not all injuries are created equal.
What a Tuel Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Not all injuries are created equal. No, but the end result is the same. Despite being "injury prone" he has missed less games than most.
FireChan Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 No, but the end result is the same. Despite being "injury prone" he has missed less games than most. There's a vast difference between a freak one-time ACL tear, and several "nagging" injuries. Mainly that one of them is more easily preventable. The end result being the same is irrelevant.
What a Tuel Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 There's a vast difference between a freak one-time ACL tear, and several "nagging" injuries. Mainly that one of them is more easily preventable. The end result being the same is irrelevant. A lot of those WR's have been limited with nagging injuries, not just ACL tears. Just like Sammy. Sammy played through them, just like they did. This does not take into account those injuries.
GunnerBill Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 I think what you have to be aware of as an organization is that NEED clouds your vision. I watched an evaluated Lawson and graded him extremely highly. I simply cannot agree with him as a reach for need. He was one of the top 12 players in the class for me without a single doubt.
BADOLBILZ Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 (edited) I watched an evaluated Lawson and graded him extremely highly. I simply cannot agree with him as a reach for need. He was one of the top 12 players in the class for me without a single doubt. Like I said.......a lot of people thought Kouandjio was a first round talent. What I saw in Shaq was a guy who was often slow off the ball and leaned on OT's far too much and in the NFL those are lost opportunities for production. But let me ask you this.........do you see Lawson as an every year 8-12 sack guy who gets lot's of pressures and TFL's also? I think one of the disconnects I have with some fans here is that they think it's ok if he is a 4-6 sack guy who does a decent job of setting the edge...........which is an EXTREMELY low bar to set for a first round 260-270# DE/OLB. I mean, GM's are paid to find that kind of talent later in the draft..........the early rounds are for finding high ceiling players that raise the overall talent level of your franchise. Edited May 25, 2016 by #BADOL
GunnerBill Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 But let me ask you this.........do you see Lawson as an every year 8-12 sack guy who gets lot's of pressures and TFL's also? Yes, I do. I think he is an outstanding player.
BADOLBILZ Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Yes, I do. I think he is an outstanding player. I hope you are right. It takes an explosive player to put up those kind of numbers regularly.
GunnerBill Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 I hope you are right. It takes an explosive player to put up those kind of numbers regularly. I don't think his first step explosion is there but I really like how he converts power to speed as he gets off blocks and he has outstanding hands.
John from Riverside Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Like I said.......a lot of people thought Kouandjio was a first round talent. What I saw in Shaq was a guy who was often slow off the ball and leaned on OT's far too much and in the NFL those are lost opportunities for production. But let me ask you this.........do you see Lawson as an every year 8-12 sack guy who gets lot's of pressures and TFL's also? I think one of the disconnects I have with some fans here is that they think it's ok if he is a 4-6 sack guy who does a decent job of setting the edge...........which is an EXTREMELY low bar to set for a first round 260-270# DE/OLB. I mean, GM's are paid to find that kind of talent later in the draft..........the early rounds are for finding high ceiling players that raise the overall talent level of your franchise. I think Lawson is a fully capable 10 sack a year guy WHILE also doing the other things needed to set the edge of a defense...... To me that is why I really liked Mario Williams when we got him....he was not just a "how many sacks can he get" player.....you literally had a hard time running to that side of the formation. Last years Mario Williams was just not the same guy.....
Tenhigh Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 I said Patriots, simply because they have basically owned the AFC East division for the last 14 years and have only missed the playoffs twice in all that time. They have been to six super bowls and won four of them. I for one don't ever want to see Tom Brady in another super bowl! If you think waiting for Brady to retire is the answer then there really is no hope for this team, ever! The Patriots lost Brady for the entire year in the first game of the season in 2008 and still went 11-5. Last year they lost so many starters that only 3 of 22 starters played in a full 16 games and yet were only one game away from going to the super bowl again. It isn't about waiting for Brady, Belichick or anyone else to retire. It's about building a great team that can contend with the best in the league and right now Buffalo isn't even close, IMO. You say potato, I say potato. Of course we need to build a great team. But my point is that unless we draft a magic bullet of a QB, or Brady retires or his level of play drops off severely, we're going to have a hard time getting past the Pats, who happen to have one of the best QBs to ever play the game.
John from Riverside Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 You say potato, I say potato. Of course we need to build a great team. But my point is that unless we draft a magic bullet of a QB, or Brady retires or his level of play drops off severely, we're going to have a hard time getting past the Pats, who happen to have one of the best QBs to ever play the game. I feel that the Pats are the gatekeeper in all of this We have to find a way to beat them WITH Brady......then we are on the inside instead of the outside
Nihilarian Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Like I said.......a lot of people thought Kouandjio was a first round talent. What I saw in Shaq was a guy who was often slow off the ball and leaned on OT's far too much and in the NFL those are lost opportunities for production. But let me ask you this.........do you see Lawson as an every year 8-12 sack guy who gets lot's of pressures and TFL's also? I think one of the disconnects I have with some fans here is that they think it's ok if he is a 4-6 sack guy who does a decent job of setting the edge...........which is an EXTREMELY low bar to set for a first round 260-270# DE/OLB. I mean, GM's are paid to find that kind of talent later in the draft..........the early rounds are for finding high ceiling players that raise the overall talent level of your franchise. I think Doug Whaley drafted a guy who Ryan wanted to fit his 3-4 scheme. What I see is a guy who will be a strong player in Ryan's two-gap run-stopping scheme but in terms of sacks I just don't even see a 4-6 sack guy unless Ryan changes up his priorities and starts calling a whole lot more blitzes than he did last year. Jerry Hughes was a full-time pass rusher when the QB dropped back to pass in Schwartz's scheme and he only saw 10 sacks in 2014. Then he only saw five last year and that was with Mario on the other side in Ryan's scheme. On another note teams are not gonna want to run at whatever side Lawson is on. JMO.
Tenhigh Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 I feel that the Pats are the gatekeeper in all of this We have to find a way to beat them WITH Brady......then we are on the inside instead of the outside Agreed. But it usually feels like we're bringing a paring knife to a sword fight when we play the Pats. With TT, it's more like a large dagger, but still....
John from Riverside Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 I think Doug Whaley drafted a guy who Ryan wanted to fit his 3-4 scheme. What I see is a guy who will be a strong player in Ryan's two-gap run-stopping scheme but in terms of sacks I just don't even see a 4-6 sack guy unless Ryan changes up his priorities and starts calling a whole lot more blitzes than he did last year. Jerry Hughes was a full-time pass rusher when the QB dropped back to pass in Schwartz's scheme and he only saw 10 sacks in 2014. Then he only saw five last year and that was with Mario on the other side in Ryan's scheme. On another note teams are not gonna want to run at whatever side Lawson is on. JMO. and what if he runs a 5-2? Rex has also used this scheme. That is why he keeps saying "multiple"
thebandit27 Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 I hope you are right. It takes an explosive player to put up those kind of numbers regularly. I don't think his first step explosion is there but I really like how he converts power to speed as he gets off blocks and he has outstanding hands. I'm with Gunner on Shaq--I had him as a top-15 talent. He's not a quick-twitch guy, but I actually think he'll be a very good pass rusher/EDGE guy in the NFL. I think he compares well with Terrell Suggs actually. Both were 20+ TFL guys as Seniors, both are in the 270-lb range, both played up/down/in/out, etc. They also had very similar combine numbers: both had 33" vertical and 120-inch broad. Suggs pressed 19 reps; Shaq didn't press because of the shoulder, but it would shock me if he weren't in the same realm. Suggs had a slower 40, but that's useless when evaluating front-7 guys (just ask Clowney).
John from Riverside Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Agreed. But it usually feels like we're bringing a paring knife to a sword fight when we play the Pats. With TT, it's more like a large dagger, but still.... I know it sure feels that way! I still think that the best way to beat Brady and patriots - Run the ball.....chew up clock....score points at the end - Play keep a way from the Pats offense - Then in the 4th quarter....when Brady is making our lives miserable......make enough defensive plays to win - Brady does not do well with up the middle pressure......so early and often with that.....and put Brady on the ground EVERY time he drops back - Dont allow the pats running game to convert 1st downs
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