The Nattering Nabobs of Negativity

[26CornerBlitz]

The question I have is how we can take a defensive coach who comes in and makes our defense one of the best in the league and let him go...not only the WE REPLACED HIM WE THE 3 STOOGES...REX REX AND WHALEN

 

FYI: Schwartz did not want to stay in Buffalo unless he was the Head Coach.

[The Big Cat]

I've seen this line of thought and I've seen it lauded, but it's got a big problem. Injury and significant risk of a prospect missing time affect that prospect's value. That's the reason Jack and Smith, both more highly rated prospects than Lawson, fell to the second round. I used the words "delighted" and "ecstatic" when the Bills got Lawson at 19, but I would have wanted them to pass on him at that spot had I known about his injury. Lawson will miss all of training camp (except meetings and film), all of preseason and some of the regular season with this injury. What, exactly, should be expected of him when he gets back to practice sometime in October or November? He's going to need time to work himself into playing shape and learn. At this point I expect very little from him this season and, quite frankly, I'd be happy to see the Bills err on the side of caution and bring him along too slowly rather than too quickly.

 

In time he may very well be the player I expected him to be for the Bills - and I really, really hope that happens. But that doesn't mean the Bills should have used pick 19 on him. This season will not be productive for him due to this injury. One season is 25% of his relatively low wage rookie contract. For the Bills to take that risk is unacceptable. That's not on Lawson, it's on whomever made the decision to draft him at 19. And, believe it or not, I can root for Lawson to be a great player for the Bills and be happy if he becomes that, yet be critical of the team drafting an injured player 19th overall.

 

Lawson's injury is nothing at all like Smith's or Jack's.

 

Theirs are knee injuries, with Smith's having nerve damage, that have the very real potential of derailing their careers.

 

The process to surgically repair Shaq's injury will make his shoulder stronger and will set him up to have virtually no more problems with that injury.

 

Yes, it's derailing the first part of his rookie season, but by no means will it have the impact on his career in the same way Smith or Jack's very well could.

 

They are not comparable. At all.

Edited May 19, 2016 by The Big Cat

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Lawson's injury is nothing at all like Smith's or Jack's.

 

Theirs are knee injuries, with Smith's having nerve damage, that have the very real potential of derailing their careers.

 

The process to surgically repair Shaq's injury will make his shoulder stronger and will set him up to have virtually no more problems with that injury.

 

Yes, it's derailing the first part of his rookie season, but by no means will it have the impact on his career in the same way Smith or Jack's very well could.

 

They are not comparable. At all.

 

 

@ChrisTrapasso

Shaq's injury situation is baffling. Missed no time due to shoulder. But #Bills were supposed to be able to predict re-injury in practice?

 

Using that logic, if Josh Doctson re-injures wrist / Myles Jack hurts knee, WAS / JAX should get crushed for drafting those players and...

 

...Doctson and Jack missed games in 2015 due to their respective injuries. So they come with a more clear-cut injury risk.

 

[Deranged Rhino]

I actually think that there's been a lot of turnover in coaches and players.

 

There's new ownership as well.

 

Hence my statement that the previous decade plus doesn't really have much to do with this one.

 

I could see someone arguing that the personnel dept is the link, since the current version with Whaley/Monos/Fisher has been in place since 2013.

 

Beyond that I don't see much continuity.

 

No question, however, that the inconsistent performances doomed them last year.

[Dr. Who]

I've seen this line of thought and I've seen it lauded, but it's got a big problem. Injury and significant risk of a prospect missing time affect that prospect's value. That's the reason Jack and Smith, both more highly rated prospects than Lawson, fell to the second round.

Seen this argument numerous times. Seems to me the nature of the injuries and prognosis for future health is significantly different.

Supposedly Lawson will be 100% going forward. One can't say that for Jack and Smith. Hence, Lawson did not fall as far.

 

Ahh, I'm repeating Big Cat. Nice girl at work started talking to me and by the time she had stopped, what I had to say was redundant.

Still, why can't you see the point? It seems obvious.

Edited May 19, 2016 by Dr. Who

[26CornerBlitz]

Seen this argument numerous times. Seems to me the nature of the injuries and prognosis for future health is significantly different.

Supposedly Lawson will be 100% going forward. One can't say that for Jack and Smith. Hence, Lawson did not fall as far.

 

Ding! It couldn't be any more obvious.

[dave mcbride]

I actually think that there's been a lot of turnover in coaches and players.

 

There's new ownership as well.

 

Hence my statement that the previous decade plus doesn't really have much to do with this one.

 

I could see someone arguing that the personnel dept is the link, since the current version with Whaley/Monos/Fisher has been in place since 2013.

 

Beyond that I don't see much continuity.

 

No question, however, that the inconsistent performances doomed them last year.

 

I'm not getting this -- Whaley has been here a longer than since 2013, and was second-in-command to Nix. The regime traces back prior to 2013. 2010, I'd say. Yes, they've cycled through coaches, but the nexus of Brandon/Overdorf//Whaley/Nix (still a "special assistant"!) have been around for a while. Whaley has been in the upper level of Bills management since February 2010.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

I'm not getting this -- Whaley has been here a longer than since 2013, and was second-in-command to Nix. The regime traces back prior to 2013. 2010, I'd say. Yes, they've cycled through coaches, but the nexus of Brandon/Overdorf//Whaley/Nix (still a "special assistant"!) have been around for a while. Whaley has been in the upper level of Bills management since February 2010.

 

The change in how this team scouts and builds roster since Whaley took over the reigns fully is clear (to me), which makes the demarcation easier.

 

But really it's all about Ralph not being in the big chair anymore. He was holding this team back -- not Brandon. Not Whaley. Not even Nix.

[mannc]

Did the Bills use a first round pick on a player with a medical question mark? They certainly did. So what? The issue that plagued him was an issue that was correctable by surgery. I'm sure Whaley felt that Lawson could get through the season and then the shoulder issue could be addressed. It didn't work out that way. He had the surgery and he will miss a good portion of the season.

 

When you make a high draft selection, or any selection for that matter, the priority issue shouldn't be how good is he going to be in his rookie year. The more important issue is what is the player's potential and how good is he going to be for you in the long run. Most draft analysts had Lawson pegged in the top ten range. If he turns out to be a good player a little later rather than sooner then it was not only a good selection but it was also smart selection in that we selected a player ranked higher than where he was selected.

Not the analyses (or mocks) I read. Lawson was generally pegged in the 12-24 range, with some even projecting him outside the first round. So I don't believe it's accurate to say Lawson was picked lower than where he was "ranked". The Bills picked him about where he was projected to go, but those pre-draft "projections" to my knowledge did not factor in his injury, which was not widely known or reported prior to the draft (hence the reaction to Shefter's infamous tweet). The real question is, would you have taken him at 19 knowing he would likely miss the first half of his rookie season? I would answer "no", but others obviously disagree. At a minimum, it should have led to a discounting of his value and it does not appear that the Bills took that into consideration.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

The change in how this team scouts and builds roster since Whaley took over the reigns fully is clear (to me), which makes the demarcation easier.

 

But really it's all about Ralph not being in the big chair anymore. He was holding this team back -- not Brandon. Not Whaley. Not even Nix.

 

Seems to me that Pro Personnel and College Scouting are markedly improved in recent years to go along with the increased budget since the Pegulas became the owners.

[The Big Cat]

Not the analyses (or mocks) I read. Lawson was generally pegged in the 12-24 range, with some even projecting him outside the first round. So I don't believe it's accurate to say Lawson was picked lower than where he was "ranked". The Bills picked him about where he was projected to go, but those pre-draft "projections" to my knowledge did not factor in his injury, which was not widely known or reported prior to the draft (hence the reaction to Shefter's infamous tweet). The real question is, would you have taken him at 19 knowing he would likely miss the first half of his rookie season? I would answer "no", but others obviously disagree. At a minimum, it should have led to a discounting of his value and it does not appear that the Bills took that into consideration.

 

I don't understand how you've concluded that his injury wasn't taken into consideration.

 

Also, can you link to a few of these projections you saw with him all the way at 24? I never once saw him on a big board in the 20's, let a lone a few of him in the mid-20's.

 

Why is half a rookie season not worth a healthy career for you? That's really the most important point in your post.

[John from Riverside]

Not the analyses (or mocks) I read. Lawson was generally pegged in the 12-24 range, with some even projecting him outside the first round. So I don't believe it's accurate to say Lawson was picked lower than where he was "ranked". The Bills picked him about where he was projected to go, but those pre-draft "projections" to my knowledge did not factor in his injury, which was not widely known or reported prior to the draft (hence the reaction to Shefter's infamous tweet). The real question is, would you have taken him at 19 knowing he would likely miss the first half of his rookie season? I would answer "no", but others obviously disagree. At a minimum, it should have led to a discounting of his value and it does not appear that the Bills took that into consideration.

Most of the mocks I read had Shaq to Chicago at 11.....just sayin

 

I don't understand how you've concluded that his injury wasn't taken into consideration.

 

Also, can you link to a few of these projections you saw with him all the way at 24? I never once saw him on a big board in the 20's, let a lone a few of him in the mid-20's.

 

Why is half a rookie season not worth a healthy career for you? That's really the most important point in your post.

Cuz were in win now mode dammit!

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Seems to me that Pro Personnel and College Scouting are markedly improved in recent years to go along with the increased budget since the Pegulas became the owners.

 

Absolutely. There's no need to drag Ralph's memory through the mud, but his ownership style was just not compatible with the modern NFL. It was holding this franchise back -- there are plenty of incidents where Ralph personally intervened in football decisions and made the team worse (Flutie/Johnson, moving on from Bledsoe -- just off the top of my head), not to mention his cash to cap strategy was preventing the team from fielding rosters deep enough to be competitive.

 

The Pegulas have owned the team for less than 2 years. And in those two years the way this team operates has changed dramatically. People can either acknowledge that it's a new team with a new direction -- or they can hold on to their delusions.

[John from Riverside]

 

Absolutely. There's no need to drag Ralph's memory through the mud, but his ownership style was just not compatible with the modern NFL. It was holding this franchise back -- there are plenty of incidents where Ralph personally intervened in football decisions and made the team worse (Flutie/Johnson, moving on from Bledsoe -- just off the top of my head), not to mention his cash to cap strategy was preventing the team from fielding rosters deep enough to be competitive.

 

The Pegulas have owned the team for less than 2 years. And in those two years the way this team operates has changed dramatically. People can either acknowledge that it's a new team with a new direction -- or they can hold on to their delusions.

I realize to some fans here that this last 15 years is just one big long beating

 

but

 

Its really not....every year is a new year....and the way things run changed when the Pegula's came to town.....in all seriousness it was the year BEFORE the Pegula's came to town.

 

The problem is.....rarely are the results of turnaround seen in the same year.....it takes a little while

[mannc]

 

I don't understand how you've concluded that his injury wasn't taken into consideration.

 

Also, can you link to a few of these projections you saw with him all the way at 24? I never once saw him on a big board in the 20's, let a lone a few of him in the mid-20's.

 

Why is half a rookie season not worth a healthy career for you? That's really the most important point in your post.

I don't think it was adequately taken into consideration because immediately after the news of the injury surfaced, Whaley announced that the Bills weren't a bit concerned about it. He was either lying or downplaying the injury to avoid looking like a fool.

 

I'm not saying half a rookie season is worth more than a healthy career. I'm saying that a shoulder injury that is going to result in a player having surgery and missing half of his rookie year is going to (or should) affect his value heading into the draft, not that he is undraftable, although reportedly some teams had removed Shaq from their draft boards or at least "red-flagged" him, whatever that means. I think the Bills know that, which is why they were so unforthcoming about the injury after the news came out.

Edited May 19, 2016 by mannc

[John from Riverside]

I don't think it was adequately taken into consideration because immediately after the news of the injury surfaced, Whaley announced that the Bills weren't a bit concerned about it. He was either lying or downplaying the injury to avoid looking like a fool.

 

Or....maybe he isnt overly concerned about it.

 

I'm not saying half a rookie season is worth more than a healthy career. I'm saying that a shoulder injury that is going to result in a player having surgery and missing half of his rookie year is going to (or should) affect his value heading into the draft, not that he is undraftable, although reportedly some teams had removed Shaq from their draft boards or at least "red-flagged" him, whatever that means. I think the Bills know that, which is why they were so unforthcoming about the injury after the news came out.

[26CornerBlitz]

I don't think it was adequately taken into consideration because immediately after the news of the injury surfaced, Whaley announced that the Bills weren't a bit concerned about it. He was either lying or downplaying the injury to avoid looking like a fool.

 

I'm not saying half a rookie season is worth more than a healthy career. I'm saying that a shoulder injury that is going to result in a player having surgery and missing half of his rookie year is going to (or should) affect his value heading into the draft, not that he is undraftable, although reportedly some teams had removed Shaq from their draft boards or at least "red-flagged" him, whatever that means. I think the Bills know that, which is why they were so unforthcoming about the injury after the news came out.

 

What a take considering Shaq never missed a game at Clemson while playing with the injury.

[The Big Cat]

I don't think it was adequately taken into consideration because immediately after the news of the injury surfaced, Whaley announced that the Bills weren't a bit concerned about it. He was either lying or downplaying the injury to avoid looking like a fool.

 

I'm not saying half a rookie season is worth more than a healthy career. I'm saying that a shoulder injury that is going to result in a player having surgery and missing half of his rookie year is going to (or should) affect his value heading into the draft, not that he is undraftable, although reportedly some teams had removed Shaq from their draft boards or at least "red-flagged" him, whatever that means. I think the Bills know that, which is why they were so unforthcoming about the injury after the news came out.

 

But the Bills didn't draft Lawson for 8 games. They drafted him for a full career. So if they get a great, healthy career out of him, why should they have passed on him at 19?

 

This isn't a top-5 pick we're talking about here.

 

Plus, they weren't unforthcoming about anything. They were asked about it...IMMEDIATELY...because ESPN had Schefter on screen talking about it before Shaq even reached the stage at Draft Town.

 

Their response wasn't nearly as inconsistent as you and others are framing it. They addressed it with the medical staff, they had him cleared, acknowledged that he played in a brace for all of 2015 and also acknowledged that injuries and re-injuries are unpredictable and that they would deal with whatever happens when it happens. They never said that the chance for re-injury was zero. They never pretended like the injury didn't exist. I can see why you and others think they downplayed it, and perhaps they did. But what evidence did they have that he would need the surgery NOW? Even Schefter said the surgery would likely come AFTER his rookie season.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/725872691291508736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[3rdand12]

 

Seems to me that Pro Personnel and College Scouting are markedly improved in recent years to go along with the increased budget since the Pegulas became the owners.

To this i agree 100 percent.

How divided we have become over this !

amazing to me.

[The Big Cat]

 

Seems to me that Pro Personnel and College Scouting are markedly improved in recent years to go along with the increased budget since the Pegulas became the owners.

 

 

To this i agree 100 percent.

How divided we have become over this !

amazing to me.

 

The shear volume of activity sorting through FA scrap heaps has accelerated tremendously since 2010. The success rate has been decent, but not great. But what could you expect? At least they're in the game.