Tyler Dunne on the Direction of the Bills' Offense

[BillsVet]

It all comes back to Tyrod and whether he can keep defenses from cheating to defend the run.

 

The comparison which should be made is the 2013-14 49ers to the 2015-16 Bills. In 2013 Kaepernick had extremely similar numbers to the 2015 TT and SF had the league's 3rd ranked rushing offense in yards on their way to 12 wins. In 2014, SF maintained their rushing ability (4th overall) but Kaepernick slipped off and they won 8 games. Roman was OC both seasons.

 

It's going to be interesting seeing Buffalo's offense counter what defenses do to adjust to TT. As others have pointed out, as defenses have more film of the previously unknown TT, they'll have a much better plan to stop him. Even if the Bills still succeed running the ball, they won't get away with what they did last season focusing on the low risk sideline area throws.

[The Big Cat]

How does this prove the offense lost us more games than the defense again?

 

Doesn't the heat map show the Bills offense performed at a high level in 8 of the 16 games, while the defense only had 3 great games?

 

Doesn't the heat map show the Bills defense had more terrible categories than the Bills offense?

 

Doesn't the heat map show we lost 4 games when the defense was below average, and only lost 3 when the offense was below average?

 

Nope

 

[The Big Cat]

when the defense gets its ass kicked in the second half after failed adjustments by the Ryan D then yes, the other team will be our d.

 

It happened in many games in 2015. Our d our faltered when it was time to buckle up

 

It did not happen in many games in 2015. You just made that up. Only once in 2015 losses did a team score more points against the Bills in the second half than in the first: KC. The difference? Two points. 14 in the first 16 in the second.

 

When I mention getting a consensus on reality, this is the kind of totally fabricated "critique" I'm referring to. It doesn't even get to be a real critique because it's fantasy.

[YattaOkasan]

 

It did not happen in many games in 2015. You just made that up. Only once in 2015 losses did a team score more points against the Bills in the second half than in the first: KC. The difference? Two points. 14 in the first 16 in the second.

 

When I mention getting a consensus on reality, this is the kind of totally fabricated "critique" I'm referring to. It doesn't even get to be a real critique because it's fantasy.

Ahh.. Indianapolis...? But I do get that was a game we dominated until the 4th quarter.

Edited May 11, 2016 by YattaOkasan

[The Big Cat]

Ahh.. Indianapolis...? But I do get that was a game we dominated until the 4th quarter.

 

Yeah, I don't understand how that would be in any way relevant. Especially considering we won.

[boyst]

 

It did not happen in many games in 2015. You just made that up. Only once in 2015 losses did a team score more points against the Bills in the second half than in the first: KC. The difference? Two points. 14 in the first 16 in the second.

 

When I mention getting a consensus on reality, this is the kind of totally fabricated "critique" I'm referring to. It doesn't even get to be a real critique because it's fantasy.

so it didn't happen many times but I made it up? I stopped reading because illogical posts are not worth effort. Try again, step up the game.

 

You must be Rex Ryan's love child with sanzhez

[YattaOkasan]

 

Yeah, I don't understand how that would be in any way relevant. Especially considering we won.

Like I was trying to say that game doesn't really change your point, but you've done a good job providing data in you other posts so I was surprised you had this one wrong.

[The Big Cat]

so it didn't happen many times but I made it up? I stopped reading because illogical posts are not worth effort. Try again, step up the game.

 

You must be Rex Ryan's love child with sanzhez

 

You said it happened "many" times. It did not. Therefore, you made it up. Is that short enough for you to follow?

Like I was trying to say that game doesn't really change your point, but you've done a good job providing data in you other posts so I was surprised you had this one wrong.

 

I was only looking at games they lost.

[Bill from NYC]

I insist, in the face of much ridicule, that this progression, more so than the defense's, will be critical to success in 2016.

Well, if Rex's defense goes down another 60% this season, they will finish up with 8 or so sacks.

[YattaOkasan]

 

You said it happened "many" times. It did not. Therefore, you made it up. Is that short enough for you to follow?

 

I was only looking at games they lost.

I see that now on a third read. Sorry about that.

[boyst]

 

You said it happened "many" times. It did not. Therefore, you made it up. Is that short enough for you to follow?

 

 

I was only looking at games they lost.

in games they won it happened. Indy was a great example

[The Big Cat]

Well, if Rex's defense goes down another 60% this season, they will finish up with 8 or so sacks.

 

Yep.

I see that now on a third read. Sorry about that.

 

haha, all good.

in games they won it happened. Indy was a great example

 

they shut indy out for the first 44 minutes of the game. WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

 

Then Indy scored their second and final TD with less than six minutes to go, down 27-8.

 

did you honestly believe, for a second, that that game was in jeopardy because of failed second half adjustments?

 

Rex and the 2015 defense are not beyond critique. But come ON!

[yungmack]

Cat,

 

I see your point more then most I promise

 

but I dont agree here....the D dropped 15 spots in production last year....while the offense went UP in production

 

While I also want better 3rd down efficiency...this team goes how its defense goes

This. The Bills O was 12th in YPG and 13th in PPG. That's damned respectable. And they did this with TT, Shady and KW missing multiple games, Woody and Hogan with nagging season-long injuries, and so on. But the Bills wound up 19th in ranking, a huge, huge discrepancy that, in spite of all the apologists for Rex, has to be laid squarely on his and his D's ineptitude. So it's odd to me that there is a vocal group around here whose primary attitude is about how the O sucks, TT has proved nothing, the right side of the line blows, Woods is expendable, Roman needs to improve, and so on. You know the credo. I don't understand why some people are so averse to facts. But then again, as every election shows, there are just some folks who are so wedded to their pre-conceived biases that no amount of reality can change their opinions.

[The Big Cat]

This. The Bills O was 12th in YPG and 13th in PPG. That's damned respectable. And they did this with TT, Shady and KW missing multiple games, Woody and Hogan with nagging season-long injuries, and so on. But the Bills wound up 19th in ranking, a huge, huge discrepancy that, in spite of all the apologists for Rex, has to be laid squarely on his and his D's ineptitude. So it's odd to me that there is a vocal group around here whose primary attitude is about how the O sucks, TT has proved nothing, the right side of the line blows, Woods is expendable, Roman needs to improve, and so on. You know the credo. I don't understand why some people are so averse to facts. But then again, as every election shows, there are just some folks who are so wedded to their pre-conceived biases that no amount of reality can change their opinions.

 

The 2015 offseason brought in QB1, RB1, TE RB2, WR2, RG1, LG1, RB3 and RT1C.

 

On defense they brought in CB2.

 

Am I missing anything?

 

What facts would we be averse to by bringing this up? The offense improved thanks to both coaching AND a huge infusion of talent.

 

This offseason we've had a huge infusion of talent on defense. If Rex can't make it happen, he should be fired. But there's evidence that the D would improve.

Let's see how Shaq Lawson performs in the role that Mario was SUPPOSED to be fill last year before we decide--definitively--that it was the coach's failure.

 

How's that?

 

Let's see how the defense changes with Reggie Ragland out there.

 

Let's see how the defense does with Aaron Williams back in the lineup.

 

What if they do great? By all the Rex haters' logic, then suddenly he becomes a genius, right?

Let's talk about facts.

 

The defensive personnel from 2014-15 went largely unchanged.

 

--HOWEVER--

 

They lost WAY more starters to injury (I've posted the starts-lost count numerous times, but it exceeds three times as many games lost)

 

They were in a brand new scheme.

 

So it wasn't a one to one switch...based on the two FACTS above.

Edited May 11, 2016 by The Big Cat

[GunnerBill]

Cat - as you well know they didn't throw resources at the D in the 2015 offseason because Rex inherited the 4th best D in the league the previous season. It was the offense where we needed significant upgrades. The defensive performance in 2015 was so bad that in my view Rex could have been fired for it. I know you don't agree but there are plenty of us who feel that way and you just need to accept that we feel that way based on the evident drop off in production and based on what we saw with our own eyes - square pegs in round holes, calls coming in late, no clear identity etc etc...

 

However, those of us who are reasonable (and yes I'd like to include myself in that) do not want to continue having the same debates over and over about 2015. Pegula made his choice, Rex gets another shot. Given that he has my patience and support and I absolutely do want to see how Rex does with the pieces that he had a hand in identifying. His track record does suggest there could be a sudden major turnaround.... but it is also the case that his record has more holes in it in recent years and it is possible that the game has moved beyond his schemes. In 2016 we will find out.

 

I want to Bills to win. If we can do that without having another clear out of coaching and schemes then fantastic, all the better. But as you yourself say - if he doesn't get it done for a 2nd consecutive year on his side of the ball then he is in big trouble and his NFL Head Coaching career might well be over.

[Nihilarian]

Except going with TT was a reach also as it is with making any change to your teams QB. Fact is you can't run the ball with a crap QB. Tyrod is one of the reasons we run the ball well - and not just because he himself runs.

Yet the 2013 Buffalo Bills were #2 in rushing yards and #1 in rushing attempts with EJ, Tuel and Lewis at QB and they ran that brilliantly designed hurry up and punt offense. In that 2013 season, the Buffalo Bills were 25th in three downs and out percentage.

 

In 2015, the Bills were 31st in three downs and out percentage! The difference being that last year's team also led the league in scoring rushing TD's, a 4.8 YPC Avg and more big plays passing by the QB.

 

The 2015 Buffalo Bills were the #1 team in the league in "big plays"! Meaning rushing plays that are over 10 yards and passing plays that were over 25 yards.

 

 

This upcoming season opposing teams have plenty of film on what Greg Roman did with the offense in 2015 and unlike Nathanial Hackett, he didn't pound the ball up the middle 70% of the time or force the QB to carry the offense every game. Roman's offense is more sophisticated and complex and while defenses never really shut down his rush offense in San Fran they did manage to give his QB Colin Kaepernick quite a bit of trouble.

 

If you look back at that 49er history since 2011 under Harbaugh. It wasn't the so much the offense that carried that team as much as it was the defense.

 

2010 before Harbaugh 24th on offense (#19 in rushing) (18th in passing)- 13th on defense (6-10) Alex Smith at QB (3-7)

2011 26th on offense (#8 in rushing) (29th in passing)- 4th on defense (13-3) Alex Smith at QB. (13-3)

2012 11th on offense (#4 in rushing) (31st in passing)- 3rd on defense (11-4-1) (Alex Smith 5-2 / Kaepernick 6-2)

2013 24th on offense (#3 in rushing) (30th in passing)-5th on defense (12-4) Kaepernick at QB (12-4)

2014 20th on offense (#4 in rushing) (30th in passing)-5th on defense (8-8) Kaepernick at QB (8-8)

2015 31st on offense (21st in rushing) (29th in passing)- 29th on defense (5-11) Kaepernick (2-6) Gabbert (3-5)

 

If you look back to the 2009 NY Jets you would see the same sort of stats. #1 defense and #1 in rushing while being 32nd in passing with rookie Mark Sanchez at QB.

 

 

For 2016, Ryan's defense has to get much, much better at getting pressure on the opposing QB and better than 31st in sacks. Which will, in turn, help out the Bills secondary to allow less passing yards and help create more big plays by turnovers. Just by calling more blitzes and running a one-gap scheme more often should help quite a bit. I have no idea what happened to that Rex Ryan "we will bring everyone known to man at you" defense last year.

 

Here is hoping that the new additions to the Bills defense help get that Buffalo defense in the top ten. Taylor still needs help at WR (Anquan Boldin?) and on the right side of that line at RT. JMO

[The Big Cat]

Cat - as you well know they didn't throw resources at the D in the 2015 offseason because Rex inherited the 4th best D in the league the previous season. It was the offense where we needed significant upgrades. The defensive performance in 2015 was so bad that in my view Rex could have been fired for it. I know you don't agree but there are plenty of us who feel that way and you just need to accept that we feel that way based on the evident drop off in production and based on what we saw with our own eyes - square pegs in round holes, calls coming in late, no clear identity etc etc...

 

However, those of us who are reasonable (and yes I'd like to include myself in that) do not want to continue having the same debates over and over about 2015. Pegula made his choice, Rex gets another shot. Given that he has my patience and support and I absolutely do want to see how Rex does with the pieces that he had a hand in identifying. His track record does suggest there could be a sudden major turnaround.... but it is also the case that his record has more holes in it in recent years and it is possible that the game has moved beyond his schemes. In 2016 we will find out.

 

I want to Bills to win. If we can do that without having another clear out of coaching and schemes then fantastic, all the better. But as you yourself say - if he doesn't get it done for a 2nd consecutive year on his side of the ball then he is in big trouble and his NFL Head Coaching career might well be over.

 

I think you're overlooking efforts to bring in David Harris.

 

They didn't need to make much if any additions to the defense considering where they came from.(4th in the league in total defense in 2014)

 

The injuries took their toll later in the year....The defense was underwhelming before the majority of the injuries took place....The defensive line(the bread and butter of the 2014 defense) was neutered from game 1.

 

Scheme change absolutely hurt the defense. Rex didn't really have much of a feel for how to use his players he had here in 2015. Not a sign of good coaching.

 

Imagine this team without Tyrod last season?

 

5-11 and Rex(Probably Whaley too) absolutely gets fired, IMO.

 

You're not remembering the timing of injuries correctly, at all.

 

Also, the defensive line in week one--since you brought up, specifically--was anything but neutered.

[yungmack]

 

The 2015 offseason brought in QB1, RB1, TE RB2, WR2, RG1, LG1, RB3 and RT1C.

 

On defense they brought in CB2.

 

Am I missing anything?

 

What facts would we be averse to by bringing this up? The offense improved thanks to both coaching AND a huge infusion of talent.

 

This offseason we've had a huge infusion of talent on defense. If Rex can't make it happen, he should be fired. But there's evidence that the D would improve.

Let's see how Shaq Lawson performs in the role that Mario was SUPPOSED to be fill last year before we decide--definitively--that it was the coach's failure.

 

How's that?

 

Let's see how the defense changes with Reggie Ragland out there.

 

Let's see how the defense does with Aaron Williams back in the lineup.

 

What if they do great? By all the Rex haters' logic, then suddenly he becomes a genius, right?

Let's talk about facts.

 

The defensive personnel from 2014-15 went largely unchanged.

 

--HOWEVER--

 

They lost WAY more starters to injury (I've posted the starts-lost count numerous times, but it exceeds three times as many games lost)

 

They were in a brand new scheme.

 

So it wasn't a one to one switch...based on the two FACTS above.

Your points are true, as far as they go. But this just seems like tortured logic. True enough, they didn't bring in a wave of new D players. But they didn't do that because they already had a great defense with a cadre of young players, mostly in their prime; it would have been derelict on the FOs part to expend a bunch of picks on the D when the O was in such a shabby condition, although the first pick (2nd round) was used on a D player, the very exciting Darby, so there's that.

 

And, yes, there were injuries, the most devastating to KW and AW; you don't lose that quality of talent and remain quite the same. But the fall-off with their backups in there was not tremendous; their replacements were adequate enough. No, it was more than injuries; Mario apparently mailed it in for much of the season (and we have to ask "why") while Darreus and Preston Brown often seemed confused and misused and had less than career years overall.

 

And, FTR, every team has injuries among their starters and even stars that impact the quality, including the Broncos who won the SB. Injuries are part of the reality of the NFL and the successful teams play around them. As I mentioned, the O had its share of impactful injuries yet managed to finish nearly in the upper third of all NFL offenses.

 

Even the most fervent Rex supporters have to admit that the D play was a huge drop-off after the previous two seasons. But whether the disastrous year the D had was or was not Rex's failure is not what I was writing about in any case. I was focusing on the O, which had a season way above merely respectable yet for whatever reason continues to be disrespected by a certain subset of posters around here, finding fault with the QB, WRs, O line, etc., constantly proposing fixes for what they apparently perceive as a low-quality unit. And that's the point John from Hemet and others have being trying, without success it seems, to make, that the O is NOT some substandard collection of bums and incompetents; it's pretty darned good.

Edited May 11, 2016 by yungmack

[GunnerBill]

Imagine this team without Tyrod last season?

 

5-11 and Rex(Probably Whaley too) absolutely gets fired, IMO.

 

With EJ or Cassel starting 16 games I think 5 wins would have been a stretch.

 

 

I think you're overlooking efforts to bring in David Harris.

 

How am I? We tried to bring in Harris if the stories are true, but we didn't succeed. Rex still had the #4 D from the year before and finished #19. Would Harris have helped? Yes, probably he would (although he had a poor season for the Jets in all truth). But we didn't get him. I can only judge Rex's D in 2015 on what it produced, not what it might have produced had it had different personnel. I have said - he now has more of his kind of players. Let's see if he can make it work.

[K-9]

People are still asking WHY Mario Williams mailed it in last season? Really?

 

GO BILLS!!!