Deranged Rhino Posted May 15, 2016 Posted May 15, 2016 At this point all sorts of injuries could be career ending for him so that's just a cop-out. Disagree. The bet is really simple: If Shady is still a Bill by the end of the 17 season, barring career ending injury (not nagging injuries), you lose. If he's cut before then (nagging injuries/not playing well/suspensions wouldn't affect the bet in this case) you win. The only cop out I'm asking for, for the sake of the bet, is a no-bet call if there's a catastrophic, season/career ending injury. Considering how confident you are in your position, this isn't really much of a hedge.
What a Tuel Posted May 16, 2016 Posted May 16, 2016 (edited) 27 is generally considered the peak for a RB and you can expect on average an immediate 15% decline in production in year 28 followed by about 25% at 29 and then 40% at age 30. So it would be foolish to think the Bills aren't aware that Shady is circling the drain. But...of course........most of those 27 year old backs weren't already in their 7th season. So there is always that. Shady should have spent his winter in Mexico hitting the HGH instead of in Philly hitting the club. I think you are confusing peaks with career years. You don't pick a year because it is the RB's highest given year, and claim they peaked because of age when they don't repeat. I mean you can claim they technically peaked, but it is meaningless. At that point you imply their career goes down hill from there, and that simply isn't true. Lynch, Forte, Freddy, Charles, Foster, Gore, and Peterson are all RB's off the top of my head that have recently had fantastic years after your 27 years old mark. The statistical outlier of any player not getting back up to their career year is not because of age. It is coming back to earth off of a fantastic season. Same with Murray, same with Charles, same with Forte, same with Peterson and same with McCoy. These RB's all had career years and then returned to their statistical fantastic averages. If you are saying McCoy won't have another 1,600 yard rushing season, then sure, I might agree with you. (He might have a 1,600 all purpose yard season in him though) But it sounds as though you are saying he will be so bad, he would be worthy of cutting, and that is not the trend with these great RB's. They have very productive fantastic years after 27 and it just isn't true. If you don't think McCoy can handle it, then let's wait and see if Karlos shows that he can take on the load, and perform alongside McCoy then maybe in 2018 we consider cutting McCoy because we found another gem. If you think he isn't worth the money - well we will just have to agree to disagree that his production isn't worth the cap hit. Edited May 16, 2016 by What a Tuel
jester43 Posted May 16, 2016 Posted May 16, 2016 for some reason i can't get enough of this argument...
dave mcbride Posted May 16, 2016 Posted May 16, 2016 This debate -- especially the Rhino-Badol bet -- is hilarious. Keep it coming!
eball Posted May 16, 2016 Author Posted May 16, 2016 This debate -- especially the Rhino-Badol bet -- is hilarious. Keep it coming! And it's all over the simple question of whether Shady is worth 4.88% of the Bills' salary cap this season. Remarkable.
The Big Cat Posted May 16, 2016 Posted May 16, 2016 I think its more so about if that cap space could've been used better elsewhere.(Such as a RT, WR, help on defense) What's the difference?
John from Riverside Posted May 16, 2016 Posted May 16, 2016 And I said no to that. Take it or leave it......it wasn't my bet. I suspect the injuries will only continue this year.......that's what happens to high mileage models. The fact that you excuse his injuries as if it were all just randomness is funny. He blamed his league low yards-per-touch season in 2014 on a sore foot he had in Philly and it was reportedly still bugging him last June. When players get worn they say the only thing holding them back is a string of unlucky injuries when in fact those nagging injuries are the result of wear and tear. You just don't want to be my hype man and you know it's coming...... Thurman thomas?
eball Posted May 16, 2016 Author Posted May 16, 2016 I think its more so about if that cap space could've been used better elsewhere.(Such as a RT, WR, help on defense) By golly, you're right -- if Shady isn't taking up 4.88% of the cap I guess that money would be going elsewhere. It's still a simple question you, and apparently many others, are having difficulty answering.
26CornerBlitz Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 @thecomeback The 10 worst value contracts in the NFL http://dlvr.it/LPNZFz RB LeSean McCoy, Buffalo BillsIn four of his seven seasons in the NFL, current Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards. He has also been a consistent contributor in the passing offense, with 2,574 receiving yards to his name. When healthy and motivated, there’s little doubt that McCoy is one of the most explosive offensive players in the league. And yet, this still doesn’t entirely justify the five-year, $40 million contract extension that he received from the Bills when he was traded to them a year ago after six years with the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Big Cat Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 @thecomeback The 10 worst value contracts in the NFL http://dlvr.it/LPNZFz RB LeSean McCoy, Buffalo BillsIn four of his seven seasons in the NFL, current Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards. He has also been a consistent contributor in the passing offense, with 2,574 receiving yards to his name. When healthy and motivated, there’s little doubt that McCoy is one of the most explosive offensive players in the league. And yet, this still doesn’t entirely justify the five-year, $40 million contract extension that he received from the Bills when he was traded to them a year ago after six years with the Philadelphia Eagles. This will change the minds of precisely zero people in this thread.
26CornerBlitz Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 This will change the minds of precisely zero people in this thread. Don't expect it to. It's just another opinion for consideration from an additional source.
The Big Cat Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Don't expect it to. It's just another opinion for consideration from an additional source. Wasn't a critique of yours, more one of the current state of affairs round here. Love the work you put into posting all the stuff relevant to discussions here.
26CornerBlitz Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Wasn't a critique of yours, more one of the current state of affairs round here. Love the work you put into posting all the stuff relevant to discussions here. Thanks Man.
John from Riverside Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 If your gonna have a worst value contract....then it makes sense to have it on a team that uses its running backs so much.
3rdand12 Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 This debate -- especially the Rhino-Badol bet -- is hilarious. Keep it coming! Agreed, i sure love this place some days !! And it's all over the simple question of whether Shady is worth 4.88% of the Bills' salary cap this season. Remarkable. what we do best!. Remarkable is the correct word. If your gonna have a worst value contract....then it makes sense to have it on a team that uses its running backs so much. if thats how you want to justify it.
John from Riverside Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 Agreed, i sure love this place some days !! what we do best!. Remarkable is the correct word. if thats how you want to justify it. I think that is how they are justifying it....
3rdand12 Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 I think that is how they are justifying it.... and i think the Bills wanted another threat that defenses had to consider. Watkins Clay Shady and Harvin. Thats quite an arsenal on paper! Glad to have McCoy regardless of real or perceived value. he is still a playmaking threat that needs to be defended
The Big Cat Posted May 25, 2016 Posted May 25, 2016 (edited) I think that is how they are justifying it.... much easier to justify when your quaterback is making less than most backups, too the packers shant be paying shady money for a back any time soon (0.66% of THEIR cap goes to lacy) Edited May 25, 2016 by The Big Cat
BADOLBILZ Posted May 26, 2016 Posted May 26, 2016 This will change the minds of precisely zero people in this thread. Correct. The minds will be changed the same way they were changed regarding TSW's 2,000 yard man CJ Spiller and elite WR Stevie Johnson. As Marv once said.......if you get a reputation as an early riser you can sleep till noon..........and if you get a reputation as a playmaker you can get by for a while on excuses.......but he had just one long run last season......in a big play friendly run system.......ONE.......this year the average fan is going to start noticing if that continues. And what reason is there to expect that it won't? He's older.....coming off a second straight year of nagging injuries as an excuse....and 3 of the past 4 years he's ended up near the league average yards per rush attempt.
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