Shady's value to the Bills...

[BADOLBILZ]

There's a huge difference between producing when you're the backup and when you're called upon to shoulder the load. Take a look at the games in which Karlos or MG were asked to start and/or carry the ball a majority of the time, and you'll see some of their worst games. Me, I'll wait to see what a healthy Shady looks like this year and whether Karlos and MG can continue to produce. Same goes for Rawls who couldn't even stay healthy his rookie season.

 

As for Shady not seeing the endzone .

 

Double for the "they are still cheap and easy to find."

 

 

Actually the backs did purdy good "shouldering the load" without Shady.

 

Everyone points to that Giants game but that was the game that Karlos played much of with a concussion.

 

At the end of the season they didn't fare too badly......they both went off in Washington after McCoy blew a knee and they ROLLED Dallas on the ground the next week.

 

Karlos and Gillislee had poor numbers per carry in the finale but the Jets were determined to stop the run in the second game and left Revis on his island where Sammy and Tyrod torched him.

 

If you recall, in the first game the Bills pass game was totally boxed in......Watkins had like 10 yards receiving all day...........and the Jets still narrowly lost.

 

So they weren't going to let the run game beat them in Buffalo and the Bills didn't abandon it........and for good measure, in the process the Jets best DL got his leg broken defending the run at the LOS.

 

Ahh the impact of a physical running game.

 

So the idea that they just didn't play well or that the Bills suffered with them in Shady's absence is patently false.

 

Not only were they better than Shady carrying the rock, they also scored more TD's in that stretch than Shady did all year ......and yes it's no secret that the finesse back Shady has a problem in short yardage and when combined with the lack of big breakaway runs he subsequently scores REMARKABLY few TD's for a RB who is given so much opportunity.

 

And yeah, productive RB's are still really easy to find. I mean, good luck drafting a pass rusher or WR in the fifth round and thinking........this guy could get 10 sacks or put up 1,000 yards or score 8-10 TD's this year. Well, that actually happens at the RB position. Not a tough position to fill by any means.

 

McCoy is a luxury, to be sure. But he's a luxury we can easily afford

 

Easily afford?

 

They've been up against the cap all offseason.

[machine gun kelly]

His contract dictates that he will be here for no less than two more full seasons, cheers to him staying healthy and being productive.

I said the same thing a couple of pages ago. The bottom line is the deal is done so to get the most of it he plays in 2016 and 17. The salary argument is relative as the cap keeps going up and this free agency was absurd in what some of the top guys received, but there was a market, and someone was willing to pay it.

 

That leads me back as always that to keep the core of this team together is best for long term success which means we don't lose Gilmore. Excellent CB's don't grow on trees and it assure in 2017 we have to pick a 1st on a CB. I'd rather not do that so hoping both sides find a reasonable offer.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Easily afford?

 

They've been up against the cap all offseason.

 

And yet they resigned everyone they wanted to resign, and are 14 mill or so under as it stands now. Perfectly situated to pick up some veteran depth post June 1st cuts.

 

You're a glass half empty kinda guy.

[BADOLBILZ]

I said the same thing a couple of pages ago. The bottom line is the deal is done so to get the most of it he plays in 2016 and 17. The salary argument is relative as the cap keeps going up and this free agency was absurd in what some of the top guys received, but there was a market, and someone was willing to pay it.

 

That leads me back as always that to keep the core of this team together is best for long term success which means we don't lose Gilmore. Excellent CB's don't grow on trees and it assure in 2017 we have to pick a 1st on a CB. I'd rather not do that so hoping both sides find a reasonable offer.

 

It's funny that people think that the Bills wouldn't cut Shady simply because it wouldn't SAVE them any cap room.

 

The $26.5M in guarantees that make that it seem that way is actually just a sunk cost.

 

Having a disgruntled or unproductive old RB occupying a space on your roster is another matter altogether.

 

They cut Fred Jackson because they no longer wanted him.......and he'd have played for peanuts and would have embraced any role.

 

I think some of you are a being a bit naive about the personality involved and the dynamics of the situation, IMO.

 

The next time Shady is accountable for something it will be his first time so when the carries stop coming it ain't going to be his fault.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

It's funny that people think that the Bills wouldn't cut Shady simply because it wouldn't SAVE them any cap room.

 

The $26.5M in guarantees that make that it seem that way is actually just a sunk cost.

 

 

If he can't perform, they'll cut him. Who doesn't believe that?

 

I know we disagree but it's clear most of the league and OBD believe he's an elite back who performed well last year when he was healthy. There's no reason to think he's in danger of being cut due to performance or his contract. As we already covered in our bet, he's a Bill this year and next year barring serious injury. Anything after the 17' season is up in the air because it becomes cheap to walk away from him at that point.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

If he can't perform, they'll cut him. Who doesn't believe that?

 

I know we disagree but it's clear most of the league and OBD believe he's an elite back who performed well last year when he was healthy. There's no reason to think he's in danger of being cut due to performance or his contract. As we already covered in our bet, he's a Bill this year and next year barring serious injury. Anything after the 17' season is up in the air because it becomes cheap to walk away from him at that point.

 

Did you agree to your end of the bet?

 

And yes you gotta' use the hashtag.

 

(I think the L in Ryan L stands for literal, btw)

 

I don't want to hear any excuses about injury or how a looming suspension or something negates your obligation to fulfill.

 

If he's gone, #BADOL WAS RIGHT!

 

No dodging or using an alias either.

 

You gotta' own it.

 

I expect hot takes and regular activity.

 

You are gonna' be my hype man! WOOOOOOO!

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Did you agree to your end of the bet?

 

And yes you gotta' use the hashtag.

 

(I think the L in Ryan L stands for literal, btw)

 

Yessir, I did.

 

 

No problems with that.

 

 

 

I don't want to hear any excuses about injury or how a looming suspension or something negates your obligation to fulfill.

 

If he's gone, #BADOL WAS RIGHT!

 

No dodging or using an alias either.

 

You gotta' own it.

 

I expect hot takes and regular activity.

 

You are gonna' be my hype man! WOOOOOOO!

 

Of course, but the bet was barring injury. Otherwise, sure.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Yessir, I did.

 

 

 

 

Of course, but the bet was barring injury. Otherwise, sure.

 

No, no, no.......I told you, injuries are part of the equation.

 

They've always been part of my issue with the signing..............players get old or high mileage and the injuries they start a naggin'.

 

You scoffed at my high mileage takes from the outset and what happened?

 

3 separate injuries and finished the year on IR.

 

If he gets gets stabbed on a Fred Smoot party boat excursion or just comes up missing or something extracurricular I will allow that as an ex-cape clause out of respect for the dead.

 

But being old and busted up is part of his charm......you can't just love part of a man.

 

You proposed the bet, you need to own it.

[Deranged Rhino]

No, no, no.......I told you, injuries are part of the equation.

 

They've always been part of my issue with the signing..............players get old or high mileage and the injuries they start a naggin'.

 

You scoffed at my high mileage takes from the outset and what happened?

 

3 separate injuries and finished the year on IR.

 

If he gets gets stabbed on a Fred Smoot party boat excursion or just comes up missing or something extracurricular I will allow that as an ex-cape clause out of respect for the dead.

 

But being old and busted up is part of his charm......you can't just love part of a man.

 

You proposed the bet, you need to own it.

The bet was barring injury. Everyone in the NFL is one play away from their last. Shady's no exception.

Where did I say it wasn't pertinent. I'm acknowledging the league is violent and career changing injuries can happen to anyone on any play regardless of injury history. I do not believe he's injury prone, but won't just blindly say he'll be on this team in 2017 no matter what because injuries happen.

 

Here's the bet, if Shady finishes the 2017 roster as a Bill, you have to change your screen name to BADOL LOVES SHADY MCCOY and keep it that way for a full season. Deal?

[BADOLBILZ]

The bet was barring injury. Everyone in the NFL is one play away from their last. Shady's no exception.

 

 

And I said no to that.

 

Take it or leave it......it wasn't my bet.

 

I suspect the injuries will only continue this year.......that's what happens to high mileage models.

 

The fact that you excuse his injuries as if it were all just randomness is funny.

 

He blamed his league low yards-per-touch season in 2014 on a sore foot he had in Philly and it was reportedly still bugging him last June.

 

When players get worn they say the only thing holding them back is a string of unlucky injuries when in fact those nagging injuries are the result of wear and tear.

 

You just don't want to be my hype man and you know it's coming......

[Deranged Rhino]

You just don't want to be my hype man and you know it's coming......

 

If you're so confident about your projection, you'd take the bet as I framed it. Nagging injuries aren't what I'm talking about, and last year's production (in terms of this bet) wouldn't count as "injury". He played more games than he missed. I'm talking about catastrophic career/season enders. That can happen to anyone on any play, history be darned. For the purposes of this bet, which has super high stakes , I'm not going to just pretend that's not a possibility.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

If you're so confident about your projection, you'd take the bet as I framed it. Nagging injuries aren't what I'm talking about, and last year's production (in terms of this bet) wouldn't count as "injury". He played more games than he missed. I'm talking about catastrophic career/season enders. That can happen to anyone on any play, history be darned. For the purposes of this bet, which has super high stakes , I'm not going to just pretend that's not a possibility.

 

At this point all sorts of injuries could be career ending for him so that's just a cop-out.

 

As I'm sure you've read, the Bills encouraged him to get lighter last offseason knowing that if he loses another step "he is finished".

 

And indeed he seemed to wear down despite a lack of overall use last year.

 

If he were a good guy maybe he could get the benefit of the doubt following an injury and a chance to rehab and comeback but let's face it, he's a turd who makes a lot of questionable decisions so maybe it's not even a full step he has to lose.

[What a Tuel]

 

At this point all sorts of injuries could be career ending for him so that's just a cop-out.

 

As I'm sure you've read, the Bills encouraged him to get lighter last offseason knowing that if he loses another step "he is finished".

 

And indeed he seemed to wear down despite a lack of overall use last year.

 

If he were a good guy maybe he could get the benefit of the doubt following an injury and a chance to rehab and comeback but let's face it, he's a turd who makes a lot of questionable decisions so maybe it's not even a full step he has to lose.

 

There's a lot of questionable statements in this post, but Shady is almost 42 so what do I know.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

There's a lot of questionable statements in this post, but Shady is almost 42 so what do I know.

 

27 is generally considered the peak for a RB and you can expect on average an immediate 15% decline in production in year 28 followed by about 25% at 29 and then 40% at age 30.

 

So it would be foolish to think the Bills aren't aware that Shady is circling the drain.

 

But...of course........most of those 27 year old backs weren't already in their 7th season.

 

So there is always that.

 

Shady should have spent his winter in Mexico hitting the HGH instead of in Philly hitting the club.

Edited May 15, 2016 by #BADOL

[Doc]

Actually the backs did purdy good "shouldering the load" without Shady.

 

Everyone points to that Giants game but that was the game that Karlos played much of with a concussion.

 

At the end of the season they didn't fare too badly......they both went off in Washington after McCoy blew a knee and they ROLLED Dallas on the ground the next week.

 

Karlos and Gillislee had poor numbers per carry in the finale but the Jets were determined to stop the run in the second game and left Revis on his island where Sammy and Tyrod torched him.

 

If you recall, in the first game the Bills pass game was totally boxed in......Watkins had like 10 yards receiving all day...........and the Jets still narrowly lost.

 

So they weren't going to let the run game beat them in Buffalo and the Bills didn't abandon it........and for good measure, in the process the Jets best DL got his leg broken defending the run at the LOS.

 

Ahh the impact of a physical running game.

 

So the idea that they just didn't play well or that the Bills suffered with them in Shady's absence is patently false.

 

Not only were they better than Shady carrying the rock, they also scored more TD's in that stretch than Shady did all year ......and yes it's no secret that the finesse back Shady has a problem in short yardage and when combined with the lack of big breakaway runs he subsequently scores REMARKABLY few TD's for a RB who is given so much opportunity.

 

And yeah, productive RB's are still really easy to find. I mean, good luck drafting a pass rusher or WR in the fifth round and thinking........this guy could get 10 sacks or put up 1,000 yards or score 8-10 TD's this year. Well, that actually happens at the RB position. Not a tough position to fill by any means.

 

So wait, Karlos, as a rookie, misses 5 games for various reasons and gets excused for his performance in the Giants game, but Shady has a nagging hamstring injury and he gets no consideration?

 

Not sure what Shady did to you personally, but for your sake, I hope you get help.

 

As for Karlos, the odds are higher than he's no longer on the team in 2017 versus Shady. He's shown himself to be a fine backup, when healthy, but I fear his NFL career will be a short one.

[The Big Cat]

 

And yet they resigned everyone they wanted to resign, and are 14 mill or so under as it stands now. Perfectly situated to pick up some veteran depth post June 1st cuts.

 

You're a glass half empty kinda guy.

Nicely done.

 

There's a lot of questionable statements in this post, but Shady is almost 42 so what do I know.

LOL

[boyst]

 

 

You are aware that the team lead the NFL in rushing.......and he was the least productive of the regular ball carriers in terms of not only yard per carry but also big plays and TD's?

 

By a lot.

 

And the rest of the ball carriers played behind "a lousy right side of an OL" as well.

 

Karlos, Gillislee......even Tyrod had more big runs than McCoy.

 

It's interesting how fans don't see that McCoy gravitates to the sideline and turns a dynamic run offense into a struggle for small chunks while at the same time not leaving a physical impact in his wake.

 

When running games dominated the league you used to have big backs that physically paved the way for faster/quicker backs to make plays against a tired defense later in the game.

 

McCoy is basically doing the opposite and BLOCKING the way to bigger plays.

 

And what's worse is that it's mostly his decision.

 

This rush offense is back friendly....if a street free agent like MG can do it......I mean, wtf?

 

There is a reason why the overhyped McCoy has hovered around the league average ypa in 3 of the last 4 years........his reputation as a dynamic back is not statistically supported.

 

He just is what he is.......and that's not mere cliche......it sums him up.

 

Give him 200 carries in a mediocre rush offense and he'll run for 800-900 yards and not put the ball in the end zone.

 

Give him 200 carries in a well designed and executed run offense......he'll still run for 800-900 yards and not put the ball in the end zone.

 

Because he does what he wants to do......not what the offense asks of him.

 

One had him 3rd, another 7th and another 9th.

 

So I guess that's 4th?

 

Most interesting part about that podcast was them talking about how Thomas Rawls didn't run out of bounds once.

 

While I don't know if that is true or not having not seen all of his carries.......that makes him the anti-Shady and perhaps the quintessential full-impact vs. production RB.

 

Verus Shady.......the quintessential hollow impact RB.

 

The big takeaway from it all though is that the top RB's are a grab bag from all areas of the draft and many pay levels.

 

RB's aren't a dime a dozen anymore because much of that talent has moved to the defensive side of the ball but they are still cheap and easy to find.

 

Overpaying/overdrafting for less than truly extraordinary is foolishness.

#preach.

[Go-Bills]

when focused on football and controlling himself, hes is a dangerous football player and one of the top 3 backs in the league! so what is the question?

[Doc]

when focused on football and controlling himself, hes is a dangerous football player and one of the top 3 backs in the league! so what is the question?

 

When has that not been the case?

[BADOLBILZ]

 

If you're so confident about your projection, you'd take the bet as I framed it. Nagging injuries aren't what I'm talking about, and last year's production (in terms of this bet) wouldn't count as "injury". He played more games than he missed. I'm talking about catastrophic career/season enders. That can happen to anyone on any play, history be darned. For the purposes of this bet, which has super high stakes , I'm not going to just pretend that's not a possibility.

 

Oh I'm plenty confident but the injury clause just gives you all kinds of convenient excuses....he's been blaming injuries for a drop off from his big year in Chip year 1 for the past two seasons.......why would that stop now?......when he is cut, he will inevitably blame injuries........which in essence makes it a one way bet......which YOU proposed.

 

I'm working against the TSW general consensus that there is no way he will be cut regardless of poor play or injury because the team couldn't SAVE salary cap space by cutting him this coming offseason .......c'mon man the oddsmakers on TSW say I'm already giving away points and that's not good enough for you?

 

Last winter you were singing about how great Shady was going to be and scoffing at my takes that his tread was worn, that he runs for a low ypc, doesn't run inside when he should and doesn't produce in short yardage or score TD's.......and unfortunately those things happened and he had a disappointing year.

 

So that means that you are due for a market correction, right?

 

Show some confidence in your original take. You told me he was a great inside runner, you said that's how he got his nickname Shady. Now that he's had a full year in the offense, he will probably stick his foot in the ground and take those early cutbacks like Karlos and Gillislee did and put up some big plays like his long TD run he had versus Miami at home last year. His bad luck with foot, hamstring, groin and knee injuries should be in the past.......you saw the club footage this winter, he was looking explosive! 28 is not old.....yeah this will actually be his 8th year and a lot of backs are 30-31 in their 8th year.....but he's ONLY 28 man. He's got two years until he hit's that 30 wall.......by that time they can cut him and it will have only cost them $10M per year on average to have one of the elite RB's in history for 3 glorious seasons! Truss your instinks!

 

I got one for you.....since you want to put me on the spot offering a loaded bet......how many carries and yards and rush TD's do you think McCoy will put up this year? You copped out last year, but implied he'd do better than he did in Philly. Lay it out there man......don't tip toe.