2017 NFL Mock Drafts & Top Prospects

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Robert tells no lies. Corey White and company; meet your doom. Your DOOOOOOM!

 

 

 

He makes Aaron Williams look like garbage and people worship him around here so I think he'd become a fan favorite pretty quickly.

 

A real Seattle-type safety so he'd be a perfect fit for an incoming Gus Bradley if that went down.

 

I don't like drafting a safety that early but the dots between Adams and the Bills are pretty easy to connect and I think he's a pretty safe bet to become at least very good, so I'd hardly be surprised.

[Bill from NYC]

He makes Aaron Williams look like garbage and people worship him around here so I think he'd become a fan favorite pretty quickly.

 

A real Seattle-type safety so he'd be a perfect fit for an incoming Gus Bradley if that went down.

 

I don't like drafting a safety that early but the dots between Adams and the Bills are pretty easy to connect and I think he's a pretty safe bet to become at least very good, so I'd hardly be surprised.

But would drafting a first round safety win or lose games for the franchise?

 

If you guys are THAT sure he is a great player, I believe you. Still, if he is a great safety, when do we address more important issues? Wouldn't you (and you blokes) rather see a player like Jonathan Allen for example? Or a big, fast receiver?

 

I know it sounds crazy but imo, a player can be "good" and not help a team make the playoffs. I have seen this too often.

[Bill from NYC]

Two things; why does everything doom a team for 4-5 years? Also, how can you take issue with drafting good players? I'd really hate to end up with an Earl Thomas calibre player in the early teens.

Fair questions...

 

Whitner stayed the life of his contract, one worth more than 36 million iirc. Yes, I know there is now a rookie cap in place. Now, if you draft a good qb, wr, ot, or pass rusher, you have a player who is comparatively dirt cheap at a key, expensive position instead of tying up your best resources to a "secondary" position.

 

I would love to have a great safety on the Bills, and with a top pick too, just as soon as we strengthen the OL, bolster the pass rush, and of course improve at qb.

[BADOLBILZ]

But would drafting a first round safety win or lose games for the franchise?

 

If you guys are THAT sure he is a great player, I believe you. Still, if he is a great safety, when do we address more important issues? Wouldn't you (and you blokes) rather see a player like Jonathan Allen for example? Or a big, fast receiver?

 

I know it sounds crazy but imo, a player can be "good" and not help a team make the playoffs. I have seen this too often.

 

 

It's not crazy.......those premium picks should be reserved for premium positions, IMO.

 

Safety isn't one of them and it's reflected in the pay scale.

 

I also see it as fairly low longevity positon.

 

You really need to find production from the safety position using less chips, IMO.

[Kirby Jackson]

This is a good conversation. I tend to be in the camp that you use the first round picks on QB, pass catchers, franchise LTs, corners and pass rushers. With that being said S is the worst position on the team that doesn't involve kicking. This holds especially true with AW career in doubts and I think Adams has a chance to be elite. This year is probably an exception to what I generally believe in terms of draft philosophy. With that being said, there are a bunch of good safeties this year.

[26CornerBlitz]

@StefanieLoh

WSU QB Luke Falk will return for his senior season, says Mike Leach http://seattletimes.com/?p=10247425

[Bill from NYC]

It's not crazy.......those premium picks should be reserved for premium positions, IMO.

 

Safety isn't one of them and it's reflected in the pay scale.

 

I also see it as fairly low longevity positon.

 

You really need to find production from the safety position using less chips, IMO.

Is Adams better than Landon Collins? Landon is killing it on the Giants, and he was the first pick of round 2. The Giants did trade up for him, but he WAS there. In the same draft they took a blocker with their #1, and now the are in the playoffs. Of course, they have a qb who is good.

 

Next year, Alabama might have 2 safeties coming out. The first is Minkah Fitzpatrick. I hope they leave him at safety because if they do, he looks like a superstar from where I sit. The other, Ronnie Harrison hits like a young Atwater. He crushes people and is probably one of the guys you are talking about with a short shelf life. This kid hits harder than anyone I have seen in quite a few years.

[Kirby Jackson]

Is Adams better than Landon Collins? Landon is killing it on the Giants, and he was the first pick of round 2. The Giants did trade up for him, but he WAS there. In the same draft they took a blocker with their #1, and now the are in the playoffs. Of course, they have a qb who is good.

 

Next year, Alabama might have 2 safeties coming out. The first is Minkah Fitzpatrick. I hope they leave him at safety because if they do, he looks like a superstar from where I sit. The other, Ronnie Harrison hits like a young Atwater. He crushes people and is probably one of the guys you are talking about with a short shelf life. This kid hits harder than anyone I have seen in quite a few years.

I like Adams more at this point than I did Collins coming out. They are similar players though IMO.

 

Fitzpatrick looks like a star to me too as does Malik Hooker from tOSU.

Edited December 26, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[Blokestradamus]

Fair questions...

 

Whitner stayed the life of his contract, one worth more than 36 million iirc. Yes, I know there is now a rookie cap in place. Now, if you draft a good qb, wr, ot, or pass rusher, you have a player who is comparatively dirt cheap at a key, expensive position instead of tying up your best resources to a "secondary" position.

 

I would love to have a great safety on the Bills, and with a top pick too, just as soon as we strengthen the OL, bolster the pass rush, and of course improve at qb.

 

Reaching for positions is as bad as reaching for need. For me, if you can get a top calibre player in the first round, you do it. The talent probably isn't there at OT to take one early in R1. They won't take another pass rusher in R1 after Shaq. If they keep Tyrod, that's a 2-3 year commitment, they won't go QB in R1.

 

That leaves WR as the main priority position left. I'm good with them taking the Corey Davis route if they want to. Top player, satisfies a need, will have a hole there from FA one way or the other. If they want to take a shot on a Malik McDowell or someone of that ilk, I'm good with that too. Just leave R1 with a stud, where he plays matters little to me as long as it's not a specialist or a tight end. (Edit - or a non-elite RB).

Edited December 26, 2016 by Blokestradamus

[KOKBILLS]

I like Adams more at this point than I did Collins coming out. They are similar players though IMO.

 

Fitzpatrick looks like a star to me too as does Malik Hooker from tOSU.

 

 

Hooker can fly...

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Reaching for positions is as bad as reaching for need. For me, if you can get a top calibre player in the first round, you do it. The talent probably isn't there at OT to take one early in R1. They won't take another pass rusher in R1 after Shaq. If they keep Tyrod, that's a 2-3 year commitment, they won't go QB in R1.

 

That leaves WR as the main priority position left. I'm good with them taking the Corey Davis route if they want to. Top player, satisfies a need, will have a hole there from FA one way or the other. If they want to take a shot on a Malik McDowell or someone of that ilk, I'm good with that too. Just leave R1 with a stud, where he plays matters little to me as long as it's not a specialist or a tight end. (Edit - or a non-elite RB).

 

If you consider it reaching in the first place.

 

IMO I have no problem with bypassing a RB or S or ILB to take a chance at a high dollar impact position player who could potentially play out two contracts at a high level.

 

If you can't find RB/S/ILB later in the draft you aren't a very good drafting/well coached team.

 

And if you can't find an exceptional QB prospect or pass rusher/pass catcher/CB/LT prospect that early in the draft then it's either an awful draft or your scouts didn't do their job well.

This is a good conversation. I tend to be in the camp that you use the first round picks on QB, pass catchers, franchise LTs, corners and pass rushers. With that being said S is the worst position on the team that doesn't involve kicking. This holds especially true with AW career in doubts and I think Adams has a chance to be elite. This year is probably an exception to what I generally believe in terms of draft philosophy. With that being said, there are a bunch of good safeties this year.

 

 

Adams is excellent. But THIS is the problem with treating the draft like an annual event used to fill needs rather than an ongoing process of franchise building. It always feels like there is an exception, IMO. Always.

 

And then sometimes that gets perverted in the draft process to the point where teams think.......hey, if he's not there I'll pick the next guy......because it's ok to address that position early now.

 

I always felt that was the case with Michael Huff and Whitner. The Bills talked themselves into Huff and THEN into Whitner.

 

Neither was better than players found much later in the draft in subsequent seasons but it seemed like the right kind of year to pick a safety top 10.

 

Fill your needs at peripheral, high churn positions like RB and S in free agency and thru internal development.

Edited December 26, 2016 by #BADOL

[26CornerBlitz]

The case for a safety is buttressed by these numbers:

 

@john_wawrow

In 6 full games with healthy Aaron Williams, #Bills D forced 12 turnovers and had 6 4th-down stops. In past 9: 6 turnovers/0 4th down stops.

Also: In first 6 games with Aaron, #Bills allowed 9 TDs (6 rush/3pass). In last 9: 29 TDs (15 rush/14 pass).

Again, just working the numbers. In 6.5 games with Aaron Williams, #Bills allowed average 111.8 yards rushing. In 8.5 without: 150.1.

@LChase_RA

@john_wawrow In 2015-16: Bills 6-3 with Aaron, 9-13 without him. (Counting Mia game as without. Winning when he got hurt, ended up losing.)

 

[Blokestradamus]

 

If you consider it reaching in the first place.

 

IMO I have no problem with bypassing a RB or S or ILB to take a chance at a high dollar impact position player who could potentially play out two contracts at a high level.

 

If you can't find RB/S/ILB later in the draft you aren't a very good drafting/well coached team.

 

And if you can't find an exceptional QB prospect or pass rusher/pass catcher/CB/LT prospect that early in the draft then it's either an awful draft or your scouts didn't do their job well.

 

I look more at snap impact more than anything else. In my estimations, maybe two OT prospects I'd play from Day 1, neither I expect to be more than average as rookies. If they both go before we pick, I'd consider another OT a reach.

 

Factoring in Jerry and Shaq, any edge rusher is likely playing no more than 30-50% of snaps. With a QB, if Tyrod stays, no team is paying a QB that money to ditch him in a few games. That QB might not play until year 3. If they let Tyrod walk, different story. Again, depends on how the board falls.

 

If they let Gilmore walk and consider CB, there's plenty of guys to consider early. Might be the smartest move long term to take this route. 100% of snaps potential impact, teams pass enough that he could be an impact player. Same with WR, there's probably 4 guys I could justify grabbing in the 1st this year that could be a high impact contributor.

 

My personal philosophy is, you take elite talent when you can. If I'm the Browns, I'd take Myles Garrett this year, no questions asked. Once you start getting past the top 10 (I assume we'll beat the Jets, pick in the 12-15 range), the marriage between need and talent emerges. I want a cornerstone if I can get it. If the talent and the desire doesn't match up at those positions, I'll change search criteria to finding the best player I can in a position that makes the biggest improvement in Year 1.

 

We already have LT, the team probably thinks it has QB (to some extent), pass rush and receiver solved. Corner seems to be the one area with the biggest question mark.

[BADOLBILZ]

The case for a safety is buttressed by these numbers:

 

@john_wawrow

In 6 full games with healthy Aaron Williams, #Bills D forced 12 turnovers and had 6 4th-down stops. In past 9: 6 turnovers/0 4th down stops.

 

Also: In first 6 games with Aaron, #Bills allowed 9 TDs (6 rush/3pass). In last 9: 29 TDs (15 rush/14 pass).

 

Again, just working the numbers. In 6.5 games with Aaron Williams, #Bills allowed average 111.8 yards rushing. In 8.5 without: 150.1.

 

@LChase_RA

@john_wawrow In 2015-16: Bills 6-3 with Aaron, 9-13 without him. (Counting Mia game as without. Winning when he got hurt, ended up losing.)

 

 

 

My recollection is that they were getting trampled on the ground while he was in the Miami game as well. Dolphins had some curious play calls in that first half that killed some of their drives but they were running the football with ease.

 

Also, by far the worst defensive performance......relative to opponent performance........was the carpet bombing that Fitz put on the Bills in the home opener. AW was on the field for that disaster.

 

The rest of the disparity between early and later in the season I attribute mostly to offensively challenged opponents. Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett........and even during their "improved" start to the season you could see where it wasn't going to play well against better offenses without signficant improvement. The Rams game was enlightening in that regard. They really struggled to put that sh*t show away.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

@theMMQB

The top 10 draft order heading into Week 17: http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/12/26/nfl-week-16-playoff-picture-antonio-brown-derek-carr-injury-peter-king

 

Bills currently have the #12 pick.

 

Wonder if Browns go QB first pick or second .... or does their analytics say they don't pick a QB at all ....

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

 

If you consider it reaching in the first place.

 

IMO I have no problem with bypassing a RB or S or ILB to take a chance at a high dollar impact position player who could potentially play out two contracts at a high level.

 

If you can't find RB/S/ILB later in the draft you aren't a very good drafting/well coached team.

 

And if you can't find an exceptional QB prospect or pass rusher/pass catcher/CB/LT prospect that early in the draft then it's either an awful draft or your scouts didn't do their job well.

 

 

 

Adams is excellent. But THIS is the problem with treating the draft like an annual event used to fill needs rather than an ongoing process of franchise building. It always feels like there is an exception, IMO. Always.

 

And then sometimes that gets perverted in the draft process to the point where teams think.......hey, if he's not there I'll pick the next guy......because it's ok to address that position early now.

 

I always felt that was the case with Michael Huff and Whitner. The Bills talked themselves into Huff and THEN into Whitner.

 

Neither was better than players found much later in the draft in subsequent seasons but it seemed like the right kind of year to pick a safety top 10.

 

Fill your needs at peripheral, high churn positions like RB and S in free agency and thru internal development.

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating ever drafting anything but BPA. All that I am saying is that Adams might be the BPA and at a position of need.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I like Adams more at this point than I did Collins coming out. They are similar players though IMO.

 

Fitzpatrick looks like a star to me too as does Malik Hooker from tOSU.

 

hey if you have your old Fitz Jersey

[4merper4mer]

Not true. The Bills could have taken Prescott with their original 4th round pick, but Whaley gave away that pick (as well as this year's fourth) to move up for Ragland, who probably would have been available anyway. At the time, we were told that 4th rounders never amount to anything.

Whaley gave it away LOL. Rex needed 9 front 7 guys and Whaley was painted in a corner. Now we have Ragland and he may never see an NFL field unless Rex ends up as a DC somewhere.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

I look more at snap impact more than anything else. In my estimations, maybe two OT prospects I'd play from Day 1, neither I expect to be more than average as rookies. If they both go before we pick, I'd consider another OT a reach.

 

Factoring in Jerry and Shaq, any edge rusher is likely playing no more than 30-50% of snaps. With a QB, if Tyrod stays, no team is paying a QB that money to ditch him in a few games. That QB might not play until year 3. If they let Tyrod walk, different story. Again, depends on how the board falls.

 

If they let Gilmore walk and consider CB, there's plenty of guys to consider early. Might be the smartest move long term to take this route. 100% of snaps potential impact, teams pass enough that he could be an impact player. Same with WR, there's probably 4 guys I could justify grabbing in the 1st this year that could be a high impact contributor.

 

My personal philosophy is, you take elite talent when you can. If I'm the Browns, I'd take Myles Garrett this year, no questions asked. Once you start getting past the top 10 (I assume we'll beat the Jets, pick in the 12-15 range), the marriage between need and talent emerges. I want a cornerstone if I can get it. If the talent and the desire doesn't match up at those positions, I'll change search criteria to finding the best player I can in a position that makes the biggest improvement in Year 1.

 

We already have LT, the team probably thinks it has QB (to some extent), pass rush and receiver solved. Corner seems to be the one area with the biggest question mark.

 

I like the snap impact but I think you have to look at the long term snap impact a bit more with a first round pick.

 

First AND second rounders should be 2 contract guys, IMO. And ideally, they play out both ends quite effectively.

 

In this era, safeties seem like one contract guys. Long term, that's not a good investment.

 

On the surface the Seahawks seem to be the model for the value of safety play.......but the Bills have actually put far more draft emphasis on safeties than the Seahawks and it's been a miserable fail long term.

 

Whitner.....1 and done.

 

Byrd.......1 and done.

 

Williams.....basically 1 and done because he's been a shadow of his former self since he injured his neck in early 2014.

 

None of them was a bust........all have played at a very high level at one point in their careers........yet all poor uses of Bills draft resources in the long run.

 

And even the Seahawks have found themselves in a pickle as both Thomas and Chancellor are falling apart at the seams early in their second deals.

 

I agree that CB is a much better investment........longevity is better there......the athletes tend to be better.......and while it doesn't always work there is always that potential to move a good one to the lower valued safety position late in their career.

 

I haven't really done much individual analysis but at a glance I thought a guy like Tre'Davious White might end up being a terrific corner and being a very good tackler he might translate to S one day and that long term package might be a second or third round investment versus the steep price for his teammate Adams. His talent may actually be downgraded because he's been asked to play the more valued position. And that's always part of the equation when evaluating safeties. Byrd lasted until round 2 in part because HE was a CB in college.

 

Also, too much emphasis is placed on first year production when making that first selection.....when there are too many factors that work against it.

 

Speaking of OT's........if Cyrus Kouandjio keeps playing this well he may end up looking like a much better pick than Aaron Williams was.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

Reaching for positions is as bad as reaching for need. For me, if you can get a top calibre player in the first round, you do it. The talent probably isn't there at OT to take one early in R1. They won't take another pass rusher in R1 after Shaq. If they keep Tyrod, that's a 2-3 year commitment, they won't go QB in R1.

 

That leaves WR as the main priority position left. I'm good with them taking the Corey Davis route if they want to. Top player, satisfies a need, will have a hole there from FA one way or the other. If they want to take a shot on a Malik McDowell or someone of that ilk, I'm good with that too. Just leave R1 with a stud, where he plays matters little to me as long as it's not a specialist or a tight end. (Edit - or a non-elite RB).

 

RIGHT TACKLE ALL THE WAY BABY!!!

What do you think of RB D'Onta Foreman?