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Posted (edited)

 

More than anything I am frustrated...

It's allowable to be frustrated and astute at the same time. :thumbsup:

 

We are predictably going to pass on good qb prospects only to see other teams seize on our misses. I'm starting to lean toward Watson if he is available. But that is not the Buffalo way. Sad, so sad. :sick:

Edited by JohnC
Posted (edited)

Not to turn this into a Watson thread, but i will try. :w00t:

 

He passes my test unlike Cardale, he has at least three years of experience with a completion percentage above 60. That's what I look for in QBs.

CAREER STATS

  • SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT RAW QBR ADJ QBR
  • 2016 388 579 4593 67.0 7.93 65 41 17 17 151.1 73.3 84.9
  • 2015 333 491 4104 67.8 8.36 67 35 13 15 156.3 77.9 86.7
  • 2014 93 137 1466 67.9 10.70 74 14 2 8 188.6 87.1 90.9
Edited by thunderingsquid
Posted

 

Not to turn this into a Watson thread, but i will try. :w00t:

 

He passes my test unlike Cardale, he has at least three years of experience with a completion percentage above 60. That's what I look for in QBs.

CAREER STATS

  • SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT RAW QBR ADJ QBR
  • 2016 388 579 4593 67.0 7.93 65 41 17 17 151.1 73.3 84.9
  • 2015 333 491 4104 67.8 8.36 67 35 13 15 156.3 77.9 86.7
  • 2014 93 137 1466 67.9 10.70 74 14 2 8 188.6 87.1 90.9

 

Did you also advocate drafting Kellen Moore? He started four years and had a career completion percentage of almost 70 percent. What about Tim Tebow?

Posted

Did you also advocate drafting Kellen Moore? He started four years and had a career completion percentage of almost 70 percent. What about Tim Tebow?

 

That's the thing, you've got to figure out how much is scheme-driven. Mitch Trubisky completed 68.2% of his passes but I still think he's got some potentially fatal accuracy/placement issues.

 

I wish things like average depth of target and yards after catch were more closely tabulated in the college ranks. It's a pain doing it myself.

Posted

 

That's the thing, you've got to figure out how much is scheme-driven. Mitch Trubisky completed 68.2% of his passes but I still think he's got some potentially fatal accuracy/placement issues.

 

I wish things like average depth of target and yards after catch were more closely tabulated in the college ranks. It's a pain doing it myself.

Yep. It's easy to complete lots of short passes in some systems. That is one of my criticisms of the Roman/Lynn system: It does not seem to be a system that creates the opportunity for the type of easy, short completion that keeps drives going. In fairness, one of my biggest criticisms of Tyrod is that he has poor touch on those sorts of passes. From what I have seen, Cardale seems to excel at them.

Posted (edited)

 

That's the thing, you've got to figure out how much is scheme-driven. Mitch Trubisky completed 68.2% of his passes but I still think he's got some potentially fatal accuracy/placement issues.

 

I wish things like average depth of target and yards after catch were more closely tabulated in the college ranks. It's a pain doing it myself.

Not sure if you saw the podcast on wkbw where Joe B discusses this very topic with Tyler Dunne. They discussed an analyst who reviewed the top 10 QBs in this class and broke down ranking by accuracy vs throwing distance. It showed Trubisky as #1 or #2 on pretty much all short and intermediate range (behind LOS all the way to 25 yds) throws but dead last on throws over 25 yards and by like 7 or 8 % points over the next worst.

 

Still not sure if that's an issue, however. Good mechanics, footwork and the best accuracy up to 25 yards ... does that trump deep accuracy? i'd really like yours and Bandit's and a couple other draftniks' opinions on it.

Edited by Lothar
Posted (edited)

Not sure if you saw the podacst on wkbw where Joe B discusses this very topic with Tyler Dunne. They discussed an analyst who reviewed the top 10 QBs in this class and broke down ranking by accuracy vs throwing distance. It showed Trubisky as #1 or #2 on pretty much all short and intermediate range (behind LOS all the way to 25 yds) throws but dead last on throws over 25 yards and by like 7 or 8 % points over the next worst. Still not sure if that's an issue, however. Good mechanics, footwork and the best accuracy up to 25 yards ... does that trump deep accuracy? i'd really like yours and Bandit's and a couple other draftniks' opinions on it.

 

I'm of the belief (and it's not always been taken as a popular one) that the NFL isn't really a big play league, particularly in the passing game. It's more of a chunk play league which is why I value intermediate accuracy above everything else. At that level, Teddy Bridgewater is still my top rated QB in the few years of me doing this stuff. Teddy is actually a great case study for valued traits because he's not really a scrambler nor is he a great deep ball thrower but he never had a capped value to me because of it.

 

Everyone loves a QB that can hit a deep ball because it opens everything up (I think it truly helps the run game a lot more than the pass). If you don't have that deep accuracy, for me, you'd better be pinpoint accurate in the areas that you can hit to compensate. That means either having the arm/balls to throw those deep outs to the sideline or hitting digs/crossers in stride to allow creation after the catch. For me, that placement is where Trubisky has some major issues, a lot of his 11-20 targets in the MOF don't sufficiently lead the target. They still count but not all completions are neccesarily created equal.

 

Bills fans may hiss and boo me for it but Tom Brady is the benchmark for my QB evaluation. He's not the biggest arm in the league and his deep ball numbers have been distinctly average but he wins with pre-snap recognition and advanced placement & timing. When you watch a guy dismantle you twice a year doing that, it's not hard to value that highly.

Edited by Blokestradamus
Posted (edited)

 

Not to turn this into a Watson thread, but i will try. :w00t:

 

He passes my test unlike Cardale, he has at least three years of experience with a completion percentage above 60. That's what I look for in QBs.

CAREER STATS

  • SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT RAW QBR ADJ QBR
  • 2016 388 579 4593 67.0 7.93 65 41 17 17 151.1 73.3 84.9
  • 2015 333 491 4104 67.8 8.36 67 35 13 15 156.3 77.9 86.7
  • 2014 93 137 1466 67.9 10.70 74 14 2 8 188.6 87.1 90.9

 

 

Saw an article on Bills wire were they said the was a good possibility of cutting Cardale Jones, which would be another indictment of Whaley's QB picking ability. Glad McD will be the deciding factor on picks

 

That's the thing, you've got to figure out how much is scheme-driven. Mitch Trubisky completed 68.2% of his passes but I still think he's got some potentially fatal accuracy/placement issues.

 

I wish things like average depth of target and yards after catch were more closely tabulated in the college ranks. It's a pain doing it myself.

 

the real important stats are 3rd down completion percentage leading to first downs and TD drives led (sometimes RB scores)

 

The hard part is how well a QB can read a defense, go through progression and make audibles. These are things you would have personal knowledge of the offense to make proper decision.

 

the hardest part to determine is how well of a field commander they are under pressure. So many intangibles going into being a great QB and is why so many fail.

Not sure if you saw the podcast on wkbw where Joe B discusses this very topic with Tyler Dunne. They discussed an analyst who reviewed the top 10 QBs in this class and broke down ranking by accuracy vs throwing distance. It showed Trubisky as #1 or #2 on pretty much all short and intermediate range (behind LOS all the way to 25 yds) throws but dead last on throws over 25 yards and by like 7 or 8 % points over the next worst.

 

Still not sure if that's an issue, however. Good mechanics, footwork and the best accuracy up to 25 yards ... does that trump deep accuracy? i'd really like yours and Bandit's and a couple other draftniks' opinions on it.

 

could be the perfect west coast QB which we are running a variant of.

 

I think Kelly had the highest accuracy on longer passes.

 

http://www.secsports.com/video/19204092/chad-kelly

Edited by Buffalo Barbarian
Posted (edited)

New mock with extra 5th :)

10: R1P10

EDGE SOLOMON THOMAS - allegedly #1 on Bills board and he was there. This is BPA all the way.

STANFORD

44: R2P12

LB ZACH CUNNINGHAM - athletic, smart WLB to replace Zach Brown

VANDERBILT

75: R3P11

WR JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER - hand him a North Face jacket with his New Era draft cap, welcome to Buffalo!

USC

156: R5P12

CB RASUL DOUGLAS - good fit for McD. He likes those 32+ inch arms and ball skillzzz

WEST VIRGINIA

163: R5P19

TE JAKE BUTT - high end value here due to injury. Will be the next Jason Witten imo.

MICHIGAN

171: R5P27

RB WAYNE GALL MAN - Gillislee clone, one cut and go. Underrated RB in a stocked RB draft

CLEMSON

195: R6P11

S JOHN JOHNSON -- simply one of my favorite players in the draft

BOSTON COLLEGE

Edited by YoloinOhio
Posted

New mock with extra 5th :)

10: R1P10

EDGE SOLOMON THOMAS - allegedly #1 on Bills board and he was there. This is BPA all the way.

STANFORD

44: R2P12

LB ZACH CUNNINGHAM - athletic, smart WLB to replace Zach Brown

VANDERBILT

75: R3P11

WR JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER - hand him a North Face jacket with his New Era draft cap, welcome to Buffalo!

USC

156: R5P12

CB RASUL DOUGLAS - good fit for McD. He likes those 32+ inch arms

WEST VIRGINIA

163: R5P19

TE JAKE BUTT - high end value here due to injury. Will be the next Jason Witten imo.

MICHIGAN

171: R5P27

RB WAYNE GALL MAN - Gillislee clone, one cut and go. Underrated RB in a stocked RB draft

CLEMSON

195: R6P11

S JOHN JOHNSON -- simply one of my favorite players in the draft

BOSTON COLLEGE

If I could get onboard the no QB train I would love this draft, a few guys I don't think will be available at the slot but still well done.

Posted

New mock with extra 5th :)

10: R1P10

EDGE SOLOMON THOMAS - allegedly #1 on Bills board and he was there. This is BPA all the way.

STANFORD

44: R2P12

LB ZACH CUNNINGHAM - athletic, smart WLB to replace Zach Brown

VANDERBILT

75: R3P11

WR JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER - hand him a North Face jacket with his New Era draft cap, welcome to Buffalo!

USC

156: R5P12

CB RASUL DOUGLAS - good fit for McD. He likes those 32+ inch arms

WEST VIRGINIA

163: R5P19

TE JAKE BUTT - high end value here due to injury. Will be the next Jason Witten imo.

MICHIGAN

171: R5P27

RB WAYNE GALL MAN - Gillislee clone, one cut and go. Underrated RB in a stocked RB draft

CLEMSON

195: R6P11

S JOHN JOHNSON -- simply one of my favorite players in the draft

BOSTON COLLEGE

If I could get those later round picks the way you have them projected, sign me up!

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