2017 NFL Mock Drafts & Top Prospects

[26CornerBlitz]

@MatthewFairburn

Also from yesterday, Buffalo Bills GM Doug Whaley said the team will meet with Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly: http://trib.al/kbmB01v

[Kirby Jackson]

 

if we also get this years 2nd sign me up for that. that would be a lot of players if whaley hits on the 2nds like he has in the past.

I haven't looked at the draft chart but I would think something like pick 10 and next year's 4th for pick 25, Houston's 2nd and next year's 1st.

[Tommy]

 

 

I completely understand the sample. I'm just explaining that 6% odds executed over 10 attempts isn't 60% likelihood of success, it's about 12%.

 

 

In my example you would have 10 of the 32 guys. 1 out of every 16 guys would be a franchise guy, and 10 out of 16 would be 62.5% likelihood that you would have at least 1 of those 2. Maybe that doesn't make sense but that is my logic (or lack thereof). .

 

Based on your example, the odds of getting at least one franchise QB in 10 attempts are actually 47.55%.

 

Here is the math:

 

Let's say X = Probability of getting a franchise QB in a given attempt = 6.25%, per your calculation

Y = Probability of not getting a franchise QB in a given attempt = 100% - 6.25% = 93.75%

Z = Probability of getting at least one franchise QB over 10 attempts

n = The number of attempts = 10

 

You are trying to find the probably of getting at least one franchise QB over 10 attempts, or Z. In cases like these, it's easier to determine the probability of the goal NOT happening, and then subtracting that from 1.

 

This would give us:

 

Prob of getting at least one franchise QB over 10 attempts = 1 - Probability of never getting a franchise QB over 10 attempts

 

Z = 1 - Yⁿ

 

Z = 1 - (0.9375)¹⁰

 

Z = 1 - 0.52446

 

Z = 0.47554 = 47.55%

[Solomon Grundy]

@MatthewFairburn

 

 

 

 

Also from yesterday, Buffalo Bills GM Doug Whaley said the team will meet with Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly: http://trib.al/kbmB01v

 

I like the fact that even though he can't play, due to injury, he's there so teams can interview him. He's getting great advice from his team so far

[26CornerBlitz]

I like the fact that even though he can't play, due to injury, he's there so teams can interview him. He's getting great advice from his team so far

 

@AP_Top25

Injured Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly addresses off-field questions with NFL http://apne.ws/2jSm9Qt @jzenor

[Bill from NYC]

@MatthewFairburn

 

 

 

 

Also from yesterday, Buffalo Bills GM Doug Whaley said the team will meet with Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly: http://trib.al/kbmB01v

Just my opinion but drafting Chad Kelly would be nothing at all more than an attempt to stir up fan interest and sell tickets. He has too many off field issues to take him much higher than round 7.

[BADOLBILZ]

The Rams didn't trade up to #2 in 2014. It was an RGIII trade legacy pick.

 

Basically for a team to trade out of one of those top 2 or 3 spots when there are supposed potential franchise QBs on the board you need quite specific circumstances.

 

Either you need a team who within the two years before has selected what they rhink is their franchise Quarterback but is in the early stages of a rebuild and is still bad. See the 2011 Rams (had a young Bradford which allowed them to trade back with RGIII on the board in 2012) or the 2015 Tennessee Titans (had a young Mariota which allowed them to trade back with Goff and Wentz on the board).

 

Or you need a team that has looked at that year's crop doesn't fancy them and is organisationally committed to a tank - see the Cleveland Browns last spring (and after taking criticism early for passing on Wentz it now looks as though they may have got it right).

 

So who are the candidates for that kind of trade next year if the Bills found themselves in that #8-#12 draft range again but armed with two first round picks (so Kirby's scenario)? I think the most obvious one is the 49ers. If they take say Trubisky at #2 this year and see enough promise in him but still suck in 2017 (possible, their roster is terrible) enough to be picking top 3 again they could potentially be a trade partner for the Bills who would hold the ammunition to get up.

 

When you put all your eggs in that basket you really have to try to finish dead last.

 

If you finish with the 5th draft selection in....say.....a 2 elite QB draft then one extra first rounder acquired from a divisional round playoff level team the previous year isn't going to be enough to move you up.

 

That's when you end up also trading a 2019 first and a couple 2nds to sweeten the deal......because you can't leave empty handed after turning yourself into a tank team and risking further organizational dysfunction/coaching upheaval to reach that point......that would be Trent-Richardson-Brownsy.

 

But even then you STILL don't really know what you've gotten in that QB and you've expended 5 early picks to get there.

 

Personally, I'm not counting 2018 as the great QB year until that egg hatches.........but not against trading back to get a 2018 first anyway.

[GunnerBill]

 

When you put all your eggs in that basket you really have to try to finish dead last.

 

If you finish with the 5th draft selection in....say.....a 2 elite QB draft then one extra first rounder acquired from a divisional round playoff level team the previous year isn't going to be enough to move you up.

 

That's when you end up also trading a 2019 first and a couple 2nds to sweeten the deal......because you can't leave empty handed after turning yourself into a tank team and risking further organizational dysfunction/coaching upheaval to reach that point......that would be Trent-Richardson-Brownsy.

 

But even then you STILL don't really know what you've gotten in that QB and you've expended 5 early picks to get there.

 

Personally, I'm not counting 2018 as the great QB year until that egg hatches.........but not against trading back to get a 2018 first anyway.

I wasn't advocating that approach. I was actually cautioning a bit against the idea that you have two firsts you can automatically get up. You need teams at the top in very specific scenarios to be willing to trade out of spots where potential elite QBs are on offing.

[BADOLBILZ]

I wasn't advocating that approach. I was actually cautioning a bit against the idea that you have two firsts you can automatically get up. You need teams at the top in very specific scenarios to be willing to trade out of spots where potential elite QBs are on offing.

 

 

Yeah I was just trying to expand on it.

 

First round picks are valuable but ALSO the most overrated way of acquiring talent........Gilmore was the only first rounder of the Bills last 10 years who actually saw the field healthy for more than half the season in 2016....... and yet they won 7 games and most feel they should have won more.

 

I don't think the math evades personnel people the way it does the average fan..............but unless they are Jeff Fisher or Marvin Lewis they probably don't have 10 years to put a SB team on the field.

 

You really need an organizational directive from ownership that finding and developing elite QB talent is priority one and an understanding that a certain amount of mistakes will be tolerated from personnel men and coaches should that lead so some disappointing seasons in the process.

 

That's tough for a team like the Bills who almost invariably find themselves picking a B-list HC and just hoping that he can create an identity and winning culture for what is basically a downtrodden franchise......... in addition to just the x's and o's and gameday management that most coaches have to deal with.

[Solomon Grundy]

Just my opinion but drafting Chad Kelly would be nothing at all more than an attempt to stir up fan interest and sell tickets. He has too many off field issues to take him much higher than round 7.

Bill, the kid can play!! The tape don't lie.

[Mark Vader]

Would like to see the Bills pick up a TE in the draft.. apparently, it's a good year.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000776730/article/mayock-2017-nfl-draft-te-class-might-be-best-ive-seen

I'll keep saying it: Jake Butt in round 2.

[YoloinOhio]

I'll keep saying it: Jake Butt in round 2.

when will he be ready to play though... he just had the acl surgery a couple weeks ago. With such a stacked TE draft I think he drops to the 3rd or later considering he will likely miss all of TC and maybe part of the season... Edited January 26, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[Augie]

when will he be ready to play though... he just had the acl surgery a couple weeks ago. With such a stacked TE draft I think he drops to the 3rd or later considering he will likely miss all of TC and maybe part of the season...

Sucks for him, but we could use some breaks!

[YoloinOhio]

Sucks for him, but we could use some breaks!

not sure Whaley is going to draft another injured player unless he falls pretty far. Jmo. I do think he's a good player though and should translate easily to NFL offenses. Actually went to HS 10 minutes from my house (same HS as Pat Elflein). Edited January 26, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[aristocrat]

not sure Whaley is going to draft another injured player unless he falls pretty far. Jmo. I do think he's a good player though and should translate easily to NFL offenses. Actually went to HS 10 minutes from my house (same HS as Pat Elflein).

 

if we could trade back and pick up an extra 2nd along with the first next year would give us the pick to take butt in the 2nd. by the draft i'm sure teams will have a pretty good idea if he could be available for the start of the year but he'd probably end up on the pup ready for mid season. but maybe he's a quick healer like ap.

[YoloinOhio]

 

if we could trade back and pick up an extra 2nd along with the first next year would give us the pick to take butt in the 2nd. by the draft i'm sure teams will have a pretty good idea if he could be available for the start of the year but he'd probably end up on the pup ready for mid season. but maybe he's a quick healer like ap.

I would say PUP is a safe bet since he had the surgery Jan 10th. Brutal timing for that kid.

[aristocrat]

I would say PUP is a safe bet since he had the surgery Jan 10th. Brutal timing for that kid.

 

he took out 2 mil in loss of value insurance so he would actually start collecting money after the 2nd round to make up for that loss of income so it's not all bad. but he was a first rounder.

[Augie]

I would say PUP is a safe bet since he had the surgery Jan 10th. Brutal timing for that kid.

True, but a possible gift for those with patience. Depends how far he falls. Geez, remember when an ACL was the kiss of death? My son in HS had surgery 6/24 and was on the court for the Thanksgiving basketball tournament. That's FIVE months. Nowhere near the same level, but he's also not getting "professional" rehab. (Thought it was pretty damn amazing!)

 

 

he took out 2 mil in loss of value insurance so he would actually start collecting money after the 2nd round to make up for that loss of income so it's not all bad. but he was a first rounder.

 

Good for him!

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

If he's going to get kicked inside, I want him at Center. I think he could be an All-Pro C within 2 seasons. Throw that nasty bastard into the middle of a knife fight.

 

Lamp's arms are 5" shorter than Julie'n Davenport's. I know which one I'd rather have on the blind side of my QB

 

he wont be able to play center as he will constantly whack himself in the nuts hiking the ball ending up on injured reserve.

 

@MatthewFairburn

Also from yesterday, Buffalo Bills GM Doug Whaley said the team will meet with Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly: http://trib.al/kbmB01v

 

 

Championship!!

Just my opinion but drafting Chad Kelly would be nothing at all more than an attempt to stir up fan interest and sell tickets. He has too many off field issues to take him much higher than round 7.

 

unless he is actually good, kid has money arm and instincts. If he can overcome his penchant for pix there is no reason why he can't be a good to great player in this league.

[P51]

Watching the senior bowl practice yesterday: Rasul Douglas (CB - WVU) has some serious coverage skills in press and he baited the WR and QB into doing what he wanted them to do in drills, I have a 2nd round grade on him and if he keeps it up, I could see going in the first round. Long, tall and athletic; I think I have my prospect crush, he gets his eyes on the ball as quickly as any prospect in this draft from what I have seen so far. I need to watch more of him, but I watched him vs. Texas and "he good", looks like Richard Sherman from what I have seen so far. The skills on tape is aligning with his Senior Bowl practice showing.

 

Blokes: Antonio Garcia (LT - Troy) as I get into my 2nd tier watch list, I think you are spot on, if that was you I think threw the shout out. I think his ceiling is the highest of any of the tackles I have seen to date.