2017 NFL Mock Drafts & Top Prospects

[mead107]

I think we have 100 ideas in all the draft threads on who gets picked at 10

[Kirby Jackson]

Everyone always sees Derek Carr and Russell Wilson but no one ever sees Christian Ponder or Pat White. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

[NewEra]

Everyone always sees Derek Carr and Russell Wilson but no one ever sees Christian Ponder or Pat White. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Or Ej Manuel

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

YOUR PICKS

1: R1P10

LB REUBEN FOSTER

ALABAMA

2: R2P12

TE EVAN ENGRAM

MISSISSIPPI

3: R3P11

WR ZAY JONES

EAST CAROLINA

4: R5P12

S MONTAE NICHOLSON

MICHIGAN STATE

5: R5P27

CB BRENDAN LANGLEY

LAMAR

6: R6P11

QB CHAD KELLY

MISSISSIPPI

 

 

 

[JohnC]

Everyone always sees Derek Carr and Russell Wilson but no one ever sees Christian Ponder or Pat White. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

There are miscalls on every position. As a second round pick Kujo was a damaging mistake. Whitner was a safety and a first round pick. What was the real value of that pick? Dareus was a high first round pick. Has he consistently played up to his lofty draft and contract status? The Browns used a high first round pick on Gilbert, a speedy and undisciplined CB. That was a disastrous and wasteful pick. How many high pick receivers have been duds? etc., etc.

 

The argument that we should shy away from drafting a qb because of the risk of failure is an argument to continue the more than a generation of failure because of a lack of an adequate qb. Derek Carr and Russel Wilson and Cousins and Prescott and Bridgewater were not elite prospects; they were good prospects. We passed on all of them. Any one of them would have been good enough to be a franchise qb for us and allowed this lagging franchise to be more competitive. The lesson to be learned is that dithering and acting without a greater degree of urgency doesn't solve the issue that can make your team a serious team.

[Kirby Jackson]

There are miscalls on every position. As a second round pick Kujo was a damaging mistake. Whitner was a safety and a first round pick. What was the real value of that pick? Dareus was a high first round pick. Has he consistently played up to his lofty draft and contract status? The Browns used a high first round pick on Gilbert, a speedy and undisciplined CB. That was a disastrous and wasteful pick. How many high pick receivers have been duds? etc., etc.

 

The argument that we should shy away from drafting a qb because of the risk of failure is an argument to continue the more than a generation of failure because of a lack of an adequate qb. Derek Carr and Russel Wilson and Cousins and Prescott and Bridgewater were not elite prospects; they were good prospects. We passed on all of them. Any one of them would have been good enough to be a franchise qb for us and allowed this lagging franchise to be more competitive. The lesson to be learned is that dithering and acting without a greater degree of urgency doesn't solve the issue that can make your team a serious team.

We also passed on John Beck, Pat White, Christian Hackenberg, Johnny Manziel, Brady Quinn and Garrett Grayson. Those guys were all drafted to be better prospects. My point certainly stands. We CAN'T always focus on missing Dak while ignoring that more guys end up being Pat White. The numbers are on here. We shouldn't assume that a good prospect will be RW. That's always the argument that the "draft QB" all the time people miss. There is maybe 1-2 QBs in this draft that will ever be better than TT. It's like that in every draft. You need to count on your scouting but you don't just select a guy and expect a franchise QB. Edited April 9, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[OldTimer1960]

We also passed on John Beck, Pat White, Christian Hackeneberg, Johnny Manziel, Brady Quinn and Garrett Grayson. Those guys were all drafted to be better prospects. My point certainly stands. We CAN'T always focus on missing Dak while ignoring that more guys end up being Pat White. The numbers are on here. We shouldn't assume that a good prospect will be RW. That's always the argument that the "draft QB" all the time people miss. There is maybe 1-2 QBs in this draft that will ever be better than TT. It's like that in every draft. You need to count on your scouting but you don't just select a guy and expect a franchise QB.

Well said.

 

Almost everyone here agrees that the Bills need a better QB. However, just taking one and wishing and hoping that he will turn out to be the answer while ignoring prospects at other positions that you have painstakingly scouted and rated as better prospects is foolish.

 

The QB position is almost always over-drafted (picked higher than players at other positions. That most everyone agrees that there are no top 10 picks in the group is telling. Just how much of a premium are you willing to pay for a QB that isn't thought of as a sure thing?

[Dr. Who]

Well said.

 

Almost everyone here agrees that the Bills need a better QB. However, just taking one and wishing and hoping that he will turn out to be the answer while ignoring prospects at other positions that you have painstakingly scouted and rated as better prospects is foolish.

 

The QB position is almost always over-drafted (picked higher than players at other positions. That most everyone agrees that there are no top 10 picks in the group is telling. Just how much of a premium are you willing to pay for a QB that isn't thought of as a sure thing?

Sure thing qbs get taken first overall. If you're waiting for that, you're going to be waiting a long, long time.

[JohnC]

We also passed on John Beck, Pat White, Christian Hackenberg, Johnny Manziel, Brady Quinn and Garrett Grayson. Those guys were all drafted to be better prospects. My point certainly stands. We CAN'T always focus on missing Dak while ignoring that more guys end up being Pat White. The numbers are on here. We shouldn't assume that a good prospect will be RW. That's always the argument that the "draft QB" all the time people miss. There is maybe 1-2 QBs in this draft that will ever be better than TT. It's like that in every draft. You need to count on your scouting but you don't just select a guy and expect a franchise QB.

With respect to the highlighted area you are making my point. You have to rely on your scouting to come to a sensible judgment. No one is arguing that you should make a pick simply out of desperation. If you believe that there is a good franchise qb prospect in the draft and if you are a team lacking in such a caliber player then you should act. You are portraying my position as if it is promoting taking a lottery ticket gamble on a player. That is a gross distortion of what I am suggesting.

 

The Bills have not had a franchise qb since the retirement of Jim Kelly, at least twenty years ago. One of the reasons of having a void at the most important position is certainly not due to being overly aggressive in its pursuit of addressing the issue that is most influential in determining success. The Bills have not been in the playoffs for a quarter of a century (conservative projection) because of not demonstrating an urgency that needs to be exhibited.

 

The Bills drafted Gilmore who was a top ten player in the draft and a good pro CB. Was it a difference maker? To add insult to injury when his contract expired the team wasn't willing to give him a second contract. Now he is with the Pats. The Jauron/Levy Whitner first round selection did little to upgrade the team. What about the McKelving pick. The Clement first round selection did little to upgrade the team. And he like Gilmore were dispatched when their respective first contracts expired. That is a losing draft strategy for a team that hasn't adequately addressed the qb position.

 

The Bills will be in a position to select a good qb prospect when our turn comes up in the first round. None of the prospects will be immediately ready to play. So what. Until this historically losing franchise acquires a franchise caliber qb the ignominious non-playoff streak will continue entering another generation. Using a first round pick on a qb in this draft does not sabotage the rest of the draft as you make it out to be. What it does is give this franchise a better chance to succeed in the not too distant future.

 

You can cite all the mediocre qbs you want to demonstrate why you are so fearful of drafting a qb with a high pick. The same argument of failed players can be made for every position. The Bills are in a good position to get a very good qb prospect in this draft. If they don't they will again allow another team to seize an opportunity that we failed to act on.

[OldTimer1960]

Sure thing qbs get taken first overall. If you're waiting for that, you're going to be waiting a long, long time.

That isn't the question that I posed. How much of a premium is it prudent to be willing to pay for a QB who should go in the second round? Let's say the Bills' scouts have assessed the best QB in this draft to have a 50% chance of becoming a good, not great starter - Andy Dalton or Alex Smith - is that worth passing on a potential pro bowl cornerstone for your defense? If they think that there is another guy who has a higher ceiling, but has such a big transition to the pros that they believe that he has a 25% chance to be very good (not talking Hall of Fame though), would you spend the 10th pick on him?

 

I think that this is the essence of the discussion. Some feel more comfortable with the gamble, others don't

With respect to the highlighted area you are making my point. You have to rely on your scouting to come to a sensible judgment. No one is arguing that you should make a pick simply out of desperation. If you believe that there is a good franchise qb prospect in the draft and if you are a team lacking in such a caliber player then you should act. You are portraying my position as if it is promoting taking a lottery ticket gamble on a player. That is a gross distortion of what I am suggesting.

 

The Bills have not had a franchise qb since the retirement of Jim Kelly, at least twenty years ago. One of the reasons of having a void at the most important position is certainly not due to being overly aggressive in its pursuit of addressing the issue that is most influential in determining success. The Bills have not been in the playoffs for a quarter of a century (conservative projection) because of not demonstrating an urgency that needs to be exhibited.

 

The Bills drafted Gilmore who was a top ten player in the draft and a good pro CB. Was it a difference maker? To add insult to injury when his contract expired the team wasn't willing to give him a second contract. Now he is with the Pats. The Jauron/Levy Whitner first round selection did little to upgrade the team. What about the McKelving pick. The Clement first round selection did little to upgrade the team. And he like Gilmore were dispatched when their respective first contracts expired. That is a losing draft strategy for a team that hasn't adequately addressed the qb position.

 

The Bills will be in a position to select a good qb prospect when our turn comes up in the first round. None of the prospects will be immediately ready to play. So what. Until this historically losing franchise acquires a franchise caliber qb the ignominious non-playoff streak will continue entering another generation. Using a first round pick on a qb in this draft does not sabotage the rest of the draft as you make it out to be. What it does is give this franchise a better chance to succeed in the not too distant future.

 

You can cite all the mediocre qbs you want to demonstrate why you are so fearful of drafting a qb with a high pick. The same argument of failed players can be made for every position. The Bills are in a good position to get a very good qb prospect in this draft. If they don't they will again allow another team to seize an opportunity that we failed to act on.

I am with you up to the part about having a shot at a very good QB prospect. I don't see any of the media/scouts saying that. Mike Mayock is well respected and he doesn't think any of these guys should be taken anywhere in the first.

 

I will agree though, that if the Bills think one of these guys is a very good prospect, then they should take him in the first.

Edited April 9, 2017 by OldTimer1960

[Dr. Who]

That isn't the question that I posed. How much of a premium is it prudent to be willing to pay for a QB who should go in the second round? Let's say the Bills' scouts have assessed the best QB in this draft to have a 50% chance of becoming a good, not great starter - Andy Dalton or Alex Smith - is that worth passing on a potential pro bowl cornerstone for your defense? If they think that there is another guy who has a higher ceiling, but has such a big transition to the pros that they believe that he has a 25% chance to be very good (not talking Hall of Fame though), would you spend the 10th pick on him?

 

I think that this is the essence of the discussion. Some feel more comfortable with the gamble, others don't

Yes, I see. Along with John C., I appear to have a higher opinion of this year's qb draft class. Those who think they are mediocre, over-hyped second rounders will share your view.

Edited April 9, 2017 by Dr. Who

[JohnC]

That isn't the question that I posed. How much of a premium is it prudent to be willing to pay for a QB who should go in the second round? Let's say the Bills' scouts have assessed the best QB in this draft to have a 50% chance of becoming a good, not great starter - Andy Dalton or Alex Smith - is that worth passing on a potential pro bowl cornerstone for your defense? If they think that there is another guy who has a higher ceiling, but has such a big transition to the pros that they believe that he has a 25% chance to be very good (not talking Hall of Fame though), would you spend the 10th pick on him?

 

I think that this is the essence of the discussion. Some feel more comfortable with the gamble, others don't

I am with you up to the part about having a shot at a very good QB prospect. I don't see any of the media/scouts saying that. Mike Mayock is well respected and he doesn't think any of these guys should be taken anywhere in the first.

 

I will agree though, that if the Bills think one of these guys is a very good prospect, then they should take him in the first.

With the follow-up discussion it indicates that our positions are not so divergent. Where I have a respectful fundamental disagreement with you is that I do believe that there are good qb prospects in this draft. I readily acknowledge that none of the top qb prospects are going to be ready in their rookie years. That's not unusual---it is the norm. My position is to get that caliber of prospect on the roster sooner than later.

 

I have a strenuous disagreement with many posters who promote the "wait until next year" strategy for a better buy. That makes little sense to me because next year we probably won't be in a position to draft a highly rated qb. There is a good chance that this year we could be in position to make the first or second qb selection. In my view it not only is a favorable position to be it would be foolish to wait any longer.

 

The reality is that the Bills are stuck in the muck of mediocrity. We are built to be a 6 to 8 win team. So if an elite prospect such as Andrew Luck is in the market the Bills will not be in a position to select that caliber of qb. You brought up a Dalton caliber of prospect vs an elite DB prospect and indicated you would prefer taking the defensive back if a choice had to be made. I would not hesitate to take the Dalton caliber qb because although he is not an elite qb he is a legitimate franchise qb who can proficiently run a full offense. There is no question in my mind that a franchise qb will have a more significant impact on the team than even an all pro CB. To make your position even less favorable is that this franchise has a history of allowing our highly touted CBs to leave when their first contract is up due to financial considerations.

Yes, I see. Along with John C., I appear to have a higher opinion of this year's qb draft class. Those who think they are mediocre, over-hyped second rounders will share your view.

If a second round rated qb is a franchise qb you should still decide to select sooner rather than later.

Edited April 9, 2017 by JohnC

[Solomon Grundy]

How is his presence when he walks into a room? That's when you know you've got a winner

Wasn't this the expression they used when making the EJ Manuel pick?

[OldTimer1960]

With the follow-up discussion it indicates that our positions are not so divergent. Where I have a respectful fundamental disagreement with you is that I do believe that there are good qb prospects in this draft. I readily acknowledge that none of the top qb prospects are going to be ready in their rookie years. That's not unusual---it is the norm. My position is to get that caliber of prospect on the roster sooner than later.

 

I have a strenuous disagreement with many posters who promote the "wait until next year" strategy for a better buy. That makes little sense to me because next year we probably won't be in a position to draft a highly rated qb. There is a good chance that this year we could be in position to make the first or second qb selection. In my view it not only is a favorable position to be it would be foolish to wait any longer.

 

The reality is that the Bills are stuck in the muck of mediocrity. We are built to be a 6 to 8 win team. So if an elite prospect such as Andrew Luck is in the market the Bills will not be in a position to select that caliber of qb. You brought up a Dalton caliber of prospect vs an elite DB prospect and indicated you would prefer taking the defensive back if a choice had to be made. I would not hesitate to take the Dalton caliber qb because although he is not an elite qb he is a legitimate franchise qb who can proficiently run a full offense. There is no question in my mind that a franchise qb will have a more significant impact on the team than even an all pro CB. To make your position even less favorable is that this franchise has a history of allowing our highly touted CBs to leave when their first contract is up due to financial considerations.

 

If a second round rated qb is a franchise qb you should still decide to select sooner rather than later.

I think that we are in general agreement except with regard to the prospects. I like Watson, but his high INT rate on a very talented team and relative lack of arm strength worry me. Trubisky worries me as a 1 year starter. Last year at this time both Watson and Kizer would have likely bee high 1st round picks - but both had weaknesses exposed with another year of play. I could see why someone might take a chance on Kizer with his size, arm and good year prior to 2016. Finally, I don't know what to make of Mahomes - strong arm, seems to see the field well, but very reckless with the ball - lots of his off balance heaves would be INTS in the NFL. From that list, I don't know who I would choose if I made the decision to pick a QB in round 1

 

For sure, I am not a scout. If the Bills do pick on of these guys high, I hope that they are right

[JohnC]

I think that we are in general agreement except with regard to the prospects. I like Watson, but his high INT rate on a very talented team and relative lack of arm strength worry me. Trubisky worries me as a 1 year starter. Last year at this time both Watson and Kizer would have likely bee high 1st round picks - but both had weaknesses exposed with another year of play. I could see why someone might take a chance on Kizer with his size, arm and good year prior to 2016. Finally, I don't know what to make of Mahomes - strong arm, seems to see the field well, but very reckless with the ball - lots of his off balance heaves would be INTS in the NFL. From that list, I don't know who I would choose if I made the decision to pick a QB in round 1

 

For sure, I am not a scout. If the Bills do pick on of these guys high, I hope that they are right

There were stories that Whaley liked Prescott a lot. The problem was that he gave up a pick to move up in the Ragland deal that made us lose out to Dallas. There is no doubt that Prescott would not have been as successful with Buffalo as he was with Dallas. But it is indisputable that the Bills would have had a legitimate qb prospect on board already and allowed the front office to go on address other needs this year and the following years. Wouldn't it have been smarter to take Prescott in the third round rather than Washington the DT from Ohio State? I'm not making a hindsight judgment. My core argument on the qb issue is that because this organization doesn't have a franchise qb it needs to make it a priority in getting one. That's my fundamental complaint. The dithering and hesitating has hurt this franchise when opportunities existed. That bothers me a lot!

 

With respect to the highlighted area if a draft pick doesn't work out, then so be it. At least you tried. There are no guarantees for any player regardless of position to work out, even highly rated players. That's the nature of the business that all organizations have to deal with.

[jeffismagic]

I think that we are in general agreement except with regard to the prospects. I like Watson, but his high INT rate on a very talented team and relative lack of arm strength worry me. Trubisky worries me as a 1 year starter. Last year at this time both Watson and Kizer would have likely bee high 1st round picks - but both had weaknesses exposed with another year of play. I could see why someone might take a chance on Kizer with his size, arm and good year prior to 2016. Finally, I don't know what to make of Mahomes - strong arm, seems to see the field well, but very reckless with the ball - lots of his off balance heaves would be INTS in the NFL. From that list, I don't know who I would choose if I made the decision to pick a QB in round 1

 

For sure, I am not a scout. If the Bills do pick on of these guys high, I hope that they are right

 

Mahomes's scouting report is eerily similar to Derek Carr.

 

STRENGTHS

Athletic with very good feet -- can roll the pocket, evade the rush or escape when pocket crumbles. Terrific arm talent -- releases from the ear and can make all the throws. Quick-armed with wrist snap. Can alter his platform and throw on the move or off his back foot. Throws come out on time and accurately. Drills short-to-intermediate throws and flashes touch. Likes to play and it shows. Sells out to make a play. Record-breaking production. Adapted to coaching/system change and receiver turnover. Improved ball security -- fumbled only once as a senior compared to 12 times the previous two seasons. Desirable intangibles for the position -- advanced maturity, leadership and intelligence. Shows poise and moxie. On-field general who commands the huddle. Passionate about the game and works at his craft.

WEAKNESSES

Lacks ideal height and has relatively small hands. Bulk is just adequate. Could stand to improve as a deep passer. At times tries to do too much and forces some throws. Occasionally throws off balance unnecessarily and sails some throws. Operated out of the shotgun and pistol and made a lot short/lateral throws and half-field reads. Production is inflated by spread offense and porous Mountain West Conference defenses -- nine 2013 opponents (excluding an FCS opponent) ranked between 81st and 125th nationally in scoring defense and/or passing defense. Had his worst game in the Las Vegas Bowl against USC.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/derek-carr?id=2543499

Edited April 10, 2017 by jeffismagic

[thebandit27]

Here's the one I always look at:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

Positives: Perhaps a bit shorter than preferred, but has excellent bulk and strength for the position. ... Durable performer who never missed a college game due to injury, despite a leaky offensive line. ... Efficient footwork and depth on his drop from center. ... Quick to scan the field and go through his progressions. ... Elite arm strength. ... Can make all the throws and shows power and toughness getting the ball deep even when defenders are closing and making contact. ... Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field. ... Consistent placing the deep out on the far shoulder of his receiver, away from the defender. ... Has good deep accuracy and trajectory. ... Lofts the ball high enough to allow his receiver to run under it. ... Aggressive, but has developed into a smarter passer over his career and will take what the defense gives him by dropping to his second and third options. ... Learning to look off the safety. ... Underrated core strength. ... Keeps his eyes downfield and will step up in the pocket and is willing to take a hit to complete the pass. ... Surprisingly nimble in the pocket and can avoid the rush. ... Underrated straight-line speed and will take what the defense gives him. ... Takes his own success and that of the team very seriously. ... Extremely competitive. ... Team captain. ... Undefeated in bowl games.

 

Negatives: Can get fundamentally lazy... ... Though he has an efficient overall release, should be able to speed it up for underneath screens passes to take better advantage of the surprise to the defense. ... Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch.

[JohnC]

Here's the one I always look at:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

Positives: Perhaps a bit shorter than preferred, but has excellent bulk and strength for the position. ... Durable performer who never missed a college game due to injury, despite a leaky offensive line. ... Efficient footwork and depth on his drop from center. ... Quick to scan the field and go through his progressions. ... Elite arm strength. ... Can make all the throws and shows power and toughness getting the ball deep even when defenders are closing and making contact. ... Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field. ... Consistent placing the deep out on the far shoulder of his receiver, away from the defender. ... Has good deep accuracy and trajectory. ... Lofts the ball high enough to allow his receiver to run under it. ... Aggressive, but has developed into a smarter passer over his career and will take what the defense gives him by dropping to his second and third options. ... Learning to look off the safety. ... Underrated core strength. ... Keeps his eyes downfield and will step up in the pocket and is willing to take a hit to complete the pass. ... Surprisingly nimble in the pocket and can avoid the rush. ... Underrated straight-line speed and will take what the defense gives him. ... Takes his own success and that of the team very seriously. ... Extremely competitive. ... Team captain. ... Undefeated in bowl games.

 

Negatives: Can get fundamentally lazy... ... Though he has an efficient overall release, should be able to speed it up for underneath screens passes to take better advantage of the surprise to the defense. ... Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch.

When I read the analysis of Mahommes, positives and negatives, my takeaway is that this is the type of talent worth taking a calculated gamble on. The positive characteristics so very much overwhelm the negative characteristics. What is noticeable about the negative traits mostly dealing with mechanics is that they are all correctable with good coaching and a player's desire to learn.

 

For a failed franchise that has not had a franchise qb in over twenty years there is no excuse for this organization to be so passive in addressing the qb position. It's a shame and an embarrassment that this void has existed for so long.

[jeffismagic]

When I read the analysis of Mahommes, positives and negatives, my takeaway is that this is the type of talent worth taking a calculated gamble on. The positive characteristics so very much overwhelm the negative characteristics. What is noticeable about the negative traits mostly dealing with mechanics is that they are all correctable with good coaching and a player's desire to learn.

 

For a failed franchise that has not had a franchise qb in over twenty years there is no excuse for this organization to be so passive in addressing the qb position. It's a shame and an embarrassment that this void has existed for so long.

 

When you see a QB with top 3 upside you pounce.

[OldTimer1960]

So, the Bills have or will have worked out the top 4 QBs in the draft. For sure, they are doing due diligence.

 

I know that there are some ardent Mahomes fans here, but what other QBs do people like?

 

Watson is intriguing with his leadership and big game moxie, but inaccuracy, turnovers and arm strength are a concern.

 

Trubisky showed that he can make NFL throws, including anticipatory throws, but why was he a backup until this year? It is not uncommon at all for a college QB to look great one year and lose their luster the next - is Trubisky a one year wonder or a great prospect?

 

Deshone Kizer looked great in 2015 and regressed a lot in 2016 when his supporting cast was weaker. He wasn't able to elevate his team without good teammates, but he is very young with a good arm and is reportedly very intelligent.

 

Mahomes has a great arm and sees the field, but it is a wide open spread offense. In the games that I watched, I didn't see the timing/anticipation throws that a NFL QB needs and I saw more than a few jump balls that paid off for him, but could easily be turnovers in the NFL.