Some post-draft thoughts

[jahnyc]

A few thoughts below:

 

1. Is it now critical that we sign one or both of Gilmore and Glenn before the end of the 2016 season (preferably both before the season begins to get some cap flexibility before the season begins)? The Bills did not use picks at the top of the draft to address these positions and there do not seem to be any replacements for Gilmore and Glenn currently on the roster. If we do not re-sign Gilmore and/or Glenn, we will go into next offseason with Gilmore, Glenn and Taylor as free agents and the ability to use only one franchise tag, which could mean, in a worst case scenario, losing two out of the tree to free agency without adequate replacements on the roster.

 

2. I liked the first two pick in our draft. Both fill significant holes. Hard to assess the rest of the picks, but the results of this draft seem to indirectly suggest that the Bills will at least try to re-sign Taylor since Jones is a project and Manuel is not a starting caliber QB.

 

3. The Bills had a surprising number of holes going into this draft. You can argue that DE, WR, LB, RT and possibly RG needed a new starter or an upgrade. Being up against the cap has not allowed the Bills to fill some of these holes with starting caliber players.

 

4. At RG, Miller really needs to step it up. Mills and Henderson at RT do not inspire confidence. Unfortunate that we could not address the right side of the o-line in free agency or the draft in any meaningful way.

 

5. I like the drafting of Williams (Arkansas) at RB. With the injuries (concussions) that K. Williams had last year, I thought it was smart to draft a RB, particularly a player who was undervalued because of an injury during his senior year.

 

6. I like Ragland and think he will be an immediate and strong starter. Not sure about Lawson's ability to be an impact starter in his first year. Both should be strong additions over the long-term, but is it unfair and/or unrealistic to think that they will be better in their first year than the guys they are replacing (Bradham and M. Williams)?

 

7. Still seems kind of odd to me that going into last season, the Bills had a very strong defense that Rex was going to take to the next level. Fast forward to this season, and we need to spend out top picks in the draft to improve a poorly rated defense.

 

8. A bit worried about our WRs after Watkins. I do not think that Woods is an adequate #2 or slot receiver and we cannot count on Goodwin or the street free agents that we signed to be an upgrade. Our draft pick Listenbee is raw and it probably unrealistic to assume that he will make a significant contribution in his first year.

 

 

 

 

[Reed83HOF]

Can't argue with any of these other than the last part of #6. If Lawson attempts to even perform a football move on defense, he will be an immediate upgrade over Mario...

[purple haze]

I think it's a fair expectation to think Miller will improve from year one to year two. He did some good things last season. He looked poor at other points, specifically in pass pro. Woods is a good WR and fine as a #2. The Bills are still running more than throwing and Watkins and Clay will eat up a majority of targets anyway; and behind them, McCoy. Woods has made some excellent grabs through the years and blocks like a demon. If he's healthy, he'll do. Lawson, as Reed83HOF says, only has to try and he will be an upgrade. Between Lawson/Ragland I suspect the run defense will be beastly this season; pass rush TBD.

[ChevyVanMiller]

I like your thoughts and agree for the most part. The one point that I'll take a counter stance is with the WR situation. Bills now have approx 15 guys under contract ( or soon to be signed). I believe that one of them, Hankerson, Salas, Lewis, Listenbee, will step up and shine in camp and preseason.

Edited May 1, 2016 by ChevyVanMiller

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Personally I like woods for us. He's a solid blocker, and actively tried to improve that ability as the year went on. He's a decent route runner, and played last year with a groin problem. Hopefully we can avoid the ridiculous injury bug next year.

[Marty McFly]

OK everyone needs to stop worrying about signing Gilmore, Glenn, and Taylor. WE ARE PROjECTED TO HAVE $50 mill of CAP AVAILABLE NEXT OFF-SEASON!! Hate to use caps but so many people say it maybe this time they will listen, we will have more than enough room to re-sign all 3 players and have change left over for Woody and FAs. Moving on. Boobs.


TO EVERYONE GOING FULL RETARD ON THE DRAFT IF THEY DIDNT LIKE IT
RG Miller should improve this season and a healthy Henderson at RT is an upgrade to Mills. Miller had great run blocking his rookie season and then a high ankle sprain ruined the rest of his season and severely hindered his play. OTs are known to take big steps of progression in the 1st 3 years so I expect Miller to be much better this year when healthy after working on pass protection more, I still would have liked to bring in a beastly RT though.

Im calling it rite now Listenbee makes WR3 and takes the top off of defenses when they double Sammy, hes the deep threat we sorely need and is a REAL WR with muscle mass to stay healthy and speed to get open, not a track star posing as one...

Shaq will be an improvement on 2015 Mario simply because he will give 100% on the field.

I think Ragland will be the biggest difference on the defense though, he will be the "Spikes" run defender we didnt have last year except much faster, Ive seen him get beat on a play and chase the RB across the field and make the tackle before anyone else, has great 2nd effort, big hitter, and was the captain of the best defense in college last year. Stop with the 2 down **** almost all LBs are 2 down guys because teams are using nickle 50% of the time. I see Ragland and Z brown as our 2 ILBs on throwing downs, ZBrown to cover and Ragland to rush or QB spy or in small zone remember COVERAGE CAN BE COACHED UP.

What cant be coached up? Football instincts and leadership and Reggie has one of the best raw football instincts in his class, leadership? He called the plays for the best Def in the NCAA, check.

At least if Karlos goes out with another concussion or McCoy gets suspended or hurt we have 2 really good backs in Gillislee and jon Williams to pick up the slack, that was a pick I didnt like at 1st and now after watching the highlights I am a big fan of the pick dude is a beast, excellent balance stutter step jukes and 2nd effort. (He had close to a year to rest his foot after surgery and will see limited playing time this year so get over it, hes not the work horse this year hell be ready to go)

My biggest concerns this off-season are
1. The Coaching: we saw Rexs train wreck last year and lack of execution in the 2 minute drill. I am a big Tyrod fan but they really need to get him comfortable going 2 min drill and call his own plays to Peyton Manning that ****, with a full off-season as the solidified starter I expect them to fix that. Same on defense, get the plays in on time, we now have a leader at LB that can bark the plays and is experienced doing it, you got your players Rex NO MORE EXCUSES.

2. Safeties and pass protection. I expect Miller to be better but Hendersons health is a question mark and we didnt snag one starting caliber RT or S in the draft or FA so we gotta hope Kromer and Ed Reed work their magic this off-season.

 

While legitimate the "Rex ruined our defense and we had to spend a draft to fix it" creely actually helps us in the long run, we got 3 really good defensive players on the cheap for the next 4 years and 2 of them were THE best defensive players in their respective NCAA divisions, I cant remember any draft class we had in the last 10 years that has accomplished that.
(two 1st team All-American defenders in the 1st 2 rounds, niceeeee)

 

Side Note: Ragland is not Preston Brown 2.0, I dont remember Preston being the Best defensive player in his NCAA division or being the captain of his defense in NCAA so chill with that.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

RG Miller should improve this season and a healthy Henderson at RT is an upgrade to Mills.

 

I like your rundown here Marty, which is easy because I agree with almost all of it.

 

To the quoted, time will tell. My money is on Mills starting in Baltimore opening day.

Edited May 2, 2016 by Aaron

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Hopefully, Miller will improve. Have a feeling his injuries not only kept him out but hindered his play when he was in.

 

We needed another solid offensive lineman and didn't do anything there. Henderson and Kujo remain major question marks, aside from the Miller situation.

 

To all those Woods haters, he played injured and is a better receiver (and certainly a good blocker) than you give him credit for being. Taylor didn't look for him a lot and that may be because he knew about his physical situation.

 

Please bring in some kickers to create a bonafide competition in camp. We need one solid kicker.

 

The wild card in all this is Rex. I'm not a fan and feel he's a mediocre coach until he proves otherwise.

[Marty McFly]

I like your rundown here Marty, which is easy because I agree with almost all of it.

 

To the quoted, time will tell. My money is on Mills starting in Baltimore opening day.

I unfortunately agree there, I cant argue with smart money, I do hope Henderson gets better health-wise and NFL OT-wise, as you said tho time will tell, Crohns disease is a B word.

[jahnyc]

I think you missed my point about Gilmore, Glenn and Taylor. It was not about not having enough cap space to sign all of them. I get it that we have enough cap space to sign all of them, but that assumes that they will want to re-sign with the Bills, and there can be no assurance that this will be the case with one or all three, since each likely will be able to get the same money or more elsewhere. Three potential free agents at the end of next season, but we only can tag one of them.

[1billsfan]

IMO Gilmore is as good as gone after this year and the Bills will use their 2017 1st round pick on his replacement. It's simple math that they can not pay Taylor AND Glenn AND Gilmore...ect

 

That's just they way of the modern NFL. You will eventually be faced with having to let good players go when they reach the end of their rookie deal and use the draft for their replacement.

 

The bright side is that the Bills now have a core group of young leaders in Watkins, Taylor, Ragland and Lawson. IMO these are the guys that will drag this team over the hump and back to the Superbowl once again.

 

 

[Marty McFly]

Hopefully, Miller will improve. Have a feeling his injuries not only kept him out but hindered his play when he was in.

 

We needed another solid offensive lineman and didn't do anything there. Henderson and Kujo remain major question marks, aside from the Miller situation.

 

To all those Woods haters, he played injured and is a better receiver (and certainly a good blocker) than you give him credit for being. Taylor didn't look for him a lot and that may be because he knew about his physical situation.

 

Please bring in some kickers to create a bonafide competition in camp. We need one solid kicker.

 

The wild card in all this is Rex. I'm not a fan and feel he's a mediocre coach until he proves otherwise.

Agree with all your points brah, Im dissapointed in Kujo...I think we brought in an UDFA kicker....and Rex needs to step it up BIG TIME get the play calls in on time, dont out coach yourself, dont overload the players with a huge complicated playbook they have talent just let em play with a good scheme/game plan, and for the love of titties, drugs, South Park, Rick & Morty and everything Holy PLEASE WORK ON THE 2 MINUTE DRILL WITH TT AND THE OFFENSE....that should be a huge focus point this off-season. Get TT prepared enough to run a 2 minute drill and call his own plays cuz last season it was a disaster. Also do alot of work on 3rd down (get the 1st down) pass plays.

I think you missed my point about Gilmore, Glenn and Taylor. It was not about not having enough cap space to sign all of them. I get it that we have enough cap space to sign all of them, but that assumes that they will want to re-sign with the Bills, and there can be no assurance that this will be the case with one or all three, since each likely will be able to get the same money or more elsewhere. Three potential free agents at the end of next season, but we only can tag one of them.

My apologies I totally missed your point. Agree though we need to lock them into contracts during the season, I dont wanna leave any of them to chance, Whaley get er done!

[Solomon Grundy]

IMO Gilmore is as good as gone after this year and the Bills will use their 2017 1st round pick on his replacement. It's simple math that they can not pay Taylor AND Glenn AND Gilmore...ect

 

That's just they way of the modern NFL. You will eventually be faced with having to let good players go when they reach the end of their rookie deal and use the draft for their replacement.

 

The bright side is that the Bills now have a core group of young leaders in Watkins, Taylor, Ragland and Lawson. IMO these are the guys that will drag this team over the hump and back to the Superbowl once again.

 

There is NO WAY Rex let Gilmore walk!! His defense is sorely based on having a "shutdown" CB. Unfortunately folks, the Bills aren't likely to pay Tyrod "franchise" money.

[BarleyNY]

To the OP: I agree with all of your points, but I really didn't find any of them surprising. I liked the draft from both value and need perspectives, but there's only so much that can be accomplished in any single draft. The 2016 draft was never going to fix all of the team's woes, but I think it will fix some.

[KOKBILLS]

Can't argue with any of these other than the last part of #6. If Lawson attempts to even perform a football move on defense, he will be an immediate upgrade over Mario...

 

As good as Ragland was for that Alabama D...I think it can be argued successfully that Lawson had an even greater impact last year...When I watched the 7 games on Draftbreakdown before the Draft I can't count how many times Lawson made me go..."Oh wow!..." If anything I think he was a little underrated going into the Draft...Maybe it was the shoulder thing...BTW...I watched the Notre Dame game again yesterday...John Gruden owes Shaq Lawson a public apology...WTF was Gruden talking about?...And it's no knock on Stanley who won a few against Shaq...But still...Shaq was good in that game! And with the game on the line, ND needs a 2 pt conversion...What do they do? That's right...they ran away from Shaq...

 

I totally agree with the Mario point...Shaq Lawson gives up on nothing till the whistle...Even when he was hurt...And he's already bought in 100% months before he gets on the field...He has zero ego issues...If he continues the arch he's on Bills fans are going to absolutely love that kid...

[BADOLBILZ]

Past history suggests that when the Bills draft quite specifically for need in early rounds like they did this year that they just end up with more needs and less impact players.

 

Take the 2013 draft.....

 

EJ.....backup in his walk year

Kiko....gone and played poorly last season

Goodwin......irrelevant to this point in career

 

or 2014 draft....

 

Kouandjio.....hanging on roster by a thread

Preston Brown.......struggled last year....Whaley can say what he wants but Brown's performance played a part in using a 2 and two 4's on Ragnuts

 

Your point about not getting potential replacements for either Gilmore or Glenn wouldn't be an issue if they weren't both players that could be viewed as blue chips at high dollar positions.

 

It's important that you are trying to get those type of players in rounds 1-3 to keep the overall talent level high.

 

Shaq isn't a real twitchy guy......unless he somehow transcends his skill set he is more of a base DE type....which is about half as valuable as a pass rushing DE that can run the arc.

 

And IMO Ragnuts is the type of talent they could have gotten an older version of for relatively cheap in free agency.

 

This is the issue I have with the picks.........it's nice to get "solid" players in the draft but the first few rounds are where you need to get real potential high impact players at positions which you can't find that kind of quality or afford in free agency.

Edited May 2, 2016 by #BADOL

[BADOLBILZ]

 

As good as Ragland was for that Alabama D...I think it can be argued successfully that Lawson had an even greater impact last year...When I watched the 7 games on Draftbreakdown before the Draft I can't count how many times Lawson made me go..."Oh wow!..." If anything I think he was a little underrated going into the Draft...Maybe it was the shoulder thing...BTW...I watched the Notre Dame game again yesterday...John Gruden owes Shaq Lawson a public apology...WTF was Gruden talking about?...And it's no knock on Stanley who won a few against Shaq...But still...Shaq was good in that game! And with the game on the line, ND needs a 2 pt conversion...What do they do? That's right...they ran away from Shaq...

 

I totally agree with the Mario point...Shaq Lawson gives up on nothing till the whistle...Even when he was hurt...And he's already bought in 100% months before he gets on the field...He has zero ego issues...If he continues the arch he's on Bills fans are going to absolutely love that kid...

 

Put Shaq's drive in Kevin Dodd's body and you have a great pick at #19.

 

I just find Lawson a bit slow off the ball and not terribly explosive.......he's a base 4-3 DE who can also stand up and play some OLB.

 

In the NFL now, you want interchangeable talents on the edge........real pass disruptors.

 

Shaq has some advanced moves but he doesn't have the feet, arms or flexibility to terrorize OT's.

 

Also has an alarming issue with lining up offsides that is going to drive fans nuts. Not jumping offsides.......just lining up actually PAST the football. Way offsides. I saw him line up offsides at least a half dozen times on video, he got called a few of them but in the NFL those will all be called. I don't know what you call that lack of awareness but it's not something this heavily penalized team needs to add to the mix.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Past history suggests that when the Bills draft quite specifically for need in early rounds like they did this year that they just end up with more needs and less impact players.

 

Take the 2013 draft.....

 

EJ.....backup in his walk year

Kiko....gone and played poorly last season

Goodwin......irrelevant to this point in career

 

or 2014 draft....

 

Kouandjio.....hanging on roster by a thread

Preston Brown.......struggled last year....Whaley can say what he wants but Brown's performance played a part in using a 2 and two 4's on Ragnuts

 

Your point about not getting potential replacements for either Gilmore or Glenn wouldn't be an issue if they weren't both players that could be viewed as blue chips at high dollar positions.

 

It's important that you are trying to get those type of players in rounds 1-3 to keep the overall talent level high.

 

Shaq isn't a real twitchy guy......unless he somehow transcends his skill set he is more of a base DE type....which is about half as valuable as a pass rushing DE that can run the arc.

 

And IMO Ragnuts is the type of talent they could have gotten an older version of for relatively cheap in free agency.

 

This is the issue I have with the picks.........it's nice to get "solid" players in the draft but the first few rounds are where you need to get real potential high impact players at positions which you can't find that kind of quality or afford in free agency.

Shaq and Aaron Schobel ran an identical 7.16 3-cone. Schobel was 6'3 and a half, 263 lbs. Schobel may be more of a bender but Shaq has more power and will bull rush a lot of tackles. Guys who can get sacks like that make a lot of money in this league. The third rounder is also a rusher rather than a plugger.

[jahnyc]

Sorry to bring the Watkins trade into this, but we are drafting in need in part because of that trade. I know there are a lot of differing views on the actual trade, but losing a first round pick always hurts. In addition, the KuJo pick really hurt us. We really needed him to be a starting caliber RT. He isn't, and it will hurt us until we find one.

[hondo in seattle]

I like your thoughts and agree for the most part. The one point that I'll take a counter stance is with the WR situation. Bills now have approx 15 guys under contract ( or soon to be signed). I believe that one of them, Hankerson, Salas, Lewis, Listenbee, will step up and shine in camp and preseason.

 

I agree with this. It's debatable if Woods is a true #2. But we have a lot of depth.

 

Little (161), Hankerson (107), Boykin (57), and Salas (46) all have more career receptions than Goodwin (20) who DW still seems to harbor hopes for. For a run-first team, I think we'll have enough weapons for TT when he does throw.