PromoTheRobot Posted May 20, 2016 Posted May 20, 2016 It is already established that he won't be playing, correct? Why not post "If Rex coaches well, everyone will forget thinking he sucked."? Lawson won't be playing and unless he is hit by lightning, bitten by a spider, or exposed to secrets via time travel, Rex won't be coaching well either. Established he'll miss some games. You seem to think his arm fell off.
Luxy312 Posted May 20, 2016 Posted May 20, 2016 On paper, this draft does seem like one of the better ones I've seen in my 44 year lifetime. I would otherwise look at the 2001 draft as being pretty darned good. Nate Clements in the first round. Aaron Schobel and Travis Henry in the second. Those are three pretty good starters right there and you could add Jonas Jennings in the third round as well, although his career was limited by injuries. None the less, we're assuming that at least the first three drafted will not only be starters but play at a high level. Dare I say "pro bowl", even though that really doesn't mean much these days? Washington and Ragland will be day 1 starters and there's no doubt that Lawson will be when he gets healthy 4-5 games into the season. Guess we will see what happens.
4merper4mer Posted May 20, 2016 Posted May 20, 2016 Established he'll miss some games. You seem to think his arm fell off. Didn't really mean to parse words. I think when you said "If he plays as expected...." you meant "if he plays as well as expected...." and not "if he plays week 1 as expected...." which is fair, but it should be pointed out that the expectation level should really start in year two due to the combination of the recovery, getting into game shape, learning any new system and having that system be Rex's which has rendered many a player "too stupid to understand". IMO expecting Lawson to truly contribute to a playoff run this year is setting the bar way too high for the kid.
John from Riverside Posted May 20, 2016 Posted May 20, 2016 If he plays games this season....and we make the playoffs....then he is contributing to a playoff run.
4merper4mer Posted May 20, 2016 Posted May 20, 2016 If he plays games this season....and we make the playoffs....then he is contributing to a playoff run. If unicorns fart out rainbows everyone might get free skittles.
VABills Posted May 20, 2016 Posted May 20, 2016 1985 - Smith, Reed and Reich, Add in Burroughs as well second best ever 1983 - Kelly and Talley 1987 was good as well - Conlon, Odoms, Meuller, Mckeller and Ballard
John from Riverside Posted May 20, 2016 Posted May 20, 2016 If unicorns fart out rainbows everyone might get free skittles. hyperbowl much? Every time you do that people laugh a little harder when you try to make a point
The Frankish Reich Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 So your answer would be to not draft guys to replace the ones we lost? I don't get it. You have 3 potential starters in the first three rounds, a developmental QB with huge upside, some depth at WR and RB and another potential starter in the 7th round. I don't see how we could have done much better than this and most people agree. No. My answer is: (1) know where you are in the competition cycle, and where your club stands relative the rest of the league. Example: look at 538's post-regular season ELO ratings. Bills were 13th in the NFL, 8th in the AFC. Some of the teams ahead of the Bills got a bit better, some got a bit worse, but nothing happened to suggest that the Bills are going to vault into an AFC championship caliber team by just plugging some defensive holes with good rookie players. That's particularly so when the schedule in 2017 will be harder. (2) knowing where you stand, do not use your 1st round pick on what you consider to be "the best available player who can start immediately at a position of need." Because even if that player is healthy, you're basically valuing the present (2017) over the future. And the future, unfortunately, is probably not now. (3) But if you are going to overvalue the present based on a notion that it is critical that we finally make the playoffs for (a) symbolic reasons; and (b) more importantly to save your - Whaley and Ryan - jobs, then by all means you better not use that top draft pick on a guy who has a reasonable chance of needing surgery that will mean he's not out there plugging that hole for at least 50% or so of your games. In other words: - Upside of drafting Shaq Lawson #1 (and trading up for Ragland #2): stays healthy, plays well, improves defense somewhat, team improves modestly, some teams ahead of the Bills fall back a bit, Bills squeak into playoffs, likely go one and out. - Downside: you miss out on the opportunity of a higher risk/higher reward draft pick (I'd have gone with Paxton Lynch). You can defend the lower risk/lower reward pick if that pick really is lower risk. But as we've all seen, that was not the case with Shaq Lawson. Plus, think about it: you control the guy for 4 years, but even that is with a pretty steep signing bonus. You just lost 50% (at least) of one of those years. Best case scenario: goodbye 1/8 of the value of Shaq Lawson before training camp even begins. Worst case scenario: unknown. The real problem here is Whaley and Rex focusing on saving their jobs, overemphasizing making the playoffs in 2017, willing (even before that with Whaley) to trade future value for present value. High Risk, Low Reward: it's the Bills way!
PromoTheRobot Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 Didn't really mean to parse words. I think when you said "If he plays as expected...." you meant "if he plays as well as expected...." and not "if he plays week 1 as expected...." which is fair, but it should be pointed out that the expectation level should really start in year two due to the combination of the recovery, getting into game shape, learning any new system and having that system be Rex's which has rendered many a player "too stupid to understand". IMO expecting Lawson to truly contribute to a playoff run this year is setting the bar way too high for the kid. No doubt Shaq will be eased into his role this season. But there isn't that much of a learning curve to rushing the QB. He'll get in for a few passing downs and work his way up. His absence doesn't leave a gaping hole. We have players on the front 7. If anything Shaq was going to be added to the rotation so not much has changed really.
QCity Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 His absence doesn't leave a gaping hole. We have players on the front 7. If anything Shaq was going to be added to the rotation so not much has changed really. According to our GM there are, in fact, "glaring holes there." I've heard a lot of conjecture over the past month on how Shaq was going to be used, this is the first time I'm hearing that he was going to be a rotational player.
Agent 91 Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 Thanks for making me hate this team again. I knew I was wrong to be positive. See you guys again in a few months. Unfortunately. He is right. The drafthas highlight but too many lowlights. Lets not trash Shaq but lets look at it for what it is. He isnt a game changer. They are pumping him up to be marios replacement. When mario plays hard. This guy is not in the same league. BUT i am grieving the Adolphus pick. I dont see where he is as versatile as they made him out to be. I think the corner and Ragland may be the best 2 picks we made. I honestly feel that we should have rolled the dice on Jack. Lawson is going to miss good time and I think Jack is/was the better prospect
Agent 91 Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 If unicorns fart out rainbows everyone might get free skittles. Dafuq
TPS Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 Unfortunately. He is right. The drafthas highlight but too many lowlights. Lets not trash Shaq but lets look at it for what it is. He isnt a game changer. They are pumping him up to be marios replacement. When mario plays hard. This guy is not in the same league. BUT i am grieving the Adolphus pick. I dont see where he is as versatile as they made him out to be. I think the corner and Ragland may be the best 2 picks we made. I honestly feel that we should have rolled the dice on Jack. Lawson is going to miss good time and I think Jack is/was the better prospectmaybe you should begin your opinions with "imo"?At this point it's fair to say you don't know Jack...
GunnerBill Posted May 23, 2016 Posted May 23, 2016 "the best available player who can start immediately at a position of need." I don't believe Lawson was the best player available at a position of need. I believe he was the best player available, period. The only caveat to that is I don't have the medical reports on Jaylon Smith or Myles Jack, but 31 teams passed on them at least once... which makes me think there are serious long term concerns. That is different to the shorter term concern with Shaq. Once Smith and Jack were discounted Lawson was the clear #1 player on my board at #19. But the part of your post I found most confusing was calling Shaq high risk, low reward and then advocating the selection of Paxton Lynch, who might be high reward but is an unbelievable risk. I wouldn't have touched him with a barge pole and will still be incredibly surprised if he makes it as a successful long terms starter in the NFL.
Nanker Posted May 23, 2016 Posted May 23, 2016 Look at it this way, Shaq will be hitting his "rookie wall" early. Instead of disappearing the last four games of the year, he'll do that the first four games.
JohnC Posted May 23, 2016 Posted May 23, 2016 Exactly. When's the last time we were able to say that? Last year.
TPS Posted June 8, 2016 Posted June 8, 2016 Wasn't sure where to post this, but Carucci has some interesting tidbits in his 3 thoughts column linked on the TBD front page. In particular, a scout he talked to said of the first 3 draft picks, he was highest on Washington. From what little I saw of him, I wasn't impressed, but I'm not scout. He wasn't as enamored with Lawson, but was also high on Ragland, but called him a 2-down player. Related to the OP, we just might be having this (best draft ever) argument for real in a few years. Last year I started a post stating I was skeptical that Ryan's D would be better than what Schwartz did. I regret to say I was right, but I certainly didn't think they would fall that far. I am much more optimistic this year, as I think the team will go "all in" with the Ryans. I also think that Ragland is the most important piece added, as he will also make Brown better. I think he'll be the piece that helps the run D average < 100 ypg for the first time in forever. It must be the offseason....
nucci Posted June 8, 2016 Posted June 8, 2016 Posting for the first time in months. I'm the pessimist a-hole on this board. I've never seen the Bills draft this well ever. EVER. That is all. Plus we got Bennett who was No.1 overall in this draft http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/buffalo-bills/draft/1987
Canadian Bills Fan Posted June 8, 2016 Posted June 8, 2016 But I thought Whaley sucks and needs to be fired? CBF
LeGOATski Posted June 8, 2016 Posted June 8, 2016 No doubt Shaq will be eased into his role this season. But there isn't that much of a learning curve to rushing the QB. He'll get in for a few passing downs and work his way up. His absence doesn't leave a gaping hole. We have players on the front 7. If anything Shaq was going to be added to the rotation so not much has changed really. Shaq is an immediate starter. Not a rotational player. Where is this coming from?
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