2016 Draft Round 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

First of all good morning from a tired but happy Brit. I managed to stay awake through the whole first round which has not happened for a few years! The last few picks from about Pittsburgh on were hard and the eyes were getting heavy but it was worth it. So having gotten some sleep I thought I'd do a little debrief of how the night went compared to what I expected. Only one place to start:

 

The Bills Pick

I love the Shaq Lawson pick. Delighted the way the draft fell meant he was there for us at #19 and with him on the board no way I would have traded back and the Bills were absolutely right not to do so. Him trying is an immediate upgrade over Mario not trying. I must just say as well when we were on the clock at #19 I looked at my board (for what that is worth) and the two players sticking up there clear at the top were Myles Jack and Jaylon Smith. Once you have put a line through the two of those as first round prospects given there now seems to be a doubt as to whether either even plays a down in 2016 then Lawson was the highest player on my board. Great job Doug and team - as #BADOL always says (and he is right) your first round picks are for talent at the premium positions. Lawson fits that mould and he could be a Bill for a long time.

 

My Mock

I think it was a safe to say it was a mixed night for my final mock draft and indeed there were a frustrating number of exact matches I did have and then changed in the final version. The final score was:

 

- 23 out of the 31 players who went in the first called correctly.

- 5 exact matches (the two obvious ones then Conklin, Decker and Kelly)

- 5 other matches where I got the position right but the player wrong (basically I knew who wanted receivers and corners but got them in the wrong order).

 

Player I was high on....

So the guy that went high who I was probably higher than most on was Eli Apple. In my final mock I had him sliding into the 20s, but previously I had been mocking him higher and he was the 2nd best corner (after Ramsey who was my #1 overall player) on my board. This is a really good pick by the Giants and whilst he might not be the second coming of Revis out of the gate I think Apple has the potential not just to be good but to be great. He is long, he is athletic, he has good instincts and decent hands. His ceiling is the highest of any corner in this draft for me.

 

Player I was down on....

Leaving the fact that I was down on Paxton Lynch aside for a second, because we all know that Quarterbacks get pushed up the board, the player I was down on through the whole process and never saw as a first round pick and was insistent that teams wouldn't either was Shaq Lawson's running mate Kevin Dodd. There was a bizarre few days when he was being touted as a possible top 15 player. That was utter madness as far as I am concerned. He belongs in the bottom half of the 2nd round and whilst he might get pushed up a bit on night 2 I am pretty pleased to be proved right there in terms of they way I looked at him. Doesn't mean the kid can't prove me wrong in the league, but he is a situational pass rusher without one facet that makes him special in my eyes. I wasn't particularly high on Leonard Floyd either (had a high 2nd on him) and the Bears has reached there for me.

 

Biggest shock of the night

I was sitting here smugly when the 49ers traded back in.... I mocked them trading back in to take Connor Cook. But they traded back in gave up a 2nd, a 4th and a 6th to move up 9 spots and take a guard. Seriously? I have to say the player is the one guy picked last night I haven't evaluated at all so I'm not slamming him as a player... but that is one odd move. Have to believe Chip is trying to show us how clever he is again. And he isn't.

 

Worst pick

Okay so how can a guy who was the 5th best player on my board (once Jack is removed) be the worst pick of the night when picked at #4? Well, when he is a running back and the team in question has Morris Claiborne starting at corner and the best player on the board who happens to be a cornerback is sitting there!! Just stupid. Jerry Jones has been talked out of some dumb personnel moves in the last few drafts by the good people he has around him. This was a Jerry Jones pick. I love Ezekiel Elliott and he will put up numbers behind that line but this is one of those situations where the Cowboys have shunned a star player at a premium position and one of genuine need for a star player at a non-premium position. That is always the wrong move. The Cowboys' house might have a shiny new front door, but they have failed to fix the leaking roof.

 

What's left?

The bigger surprise of the night is that the anticipated run on defensive tackles did not transpire until the very end of the night when Nkemdiche, Clark and Butler came off the board. There is still talent there. Both the 'Bama boys remain, as do Andrew Billings and Chris Jones. Might one of those make it to the Bills 2nd round pick? Reed, Reggie Ragland and Mackensie Alexander are the highest rated players not name Myles Jack or Jaylon Smith on my board. I would be surprised if Alexander makes it to the Bills and even more surprised if the Bills took him. Ragland is possible, but again is likely gone before we pick. The 2nd tier of receivers are all still there if the Bills wanted to go in that direction I would be surprised if at least one of Thomas, Boyd or Shepherd were not still available next time we go on the clock. And then there is Jack. If he is still there they should pick him. I don't care if his knee is hanging off, get someone to stitch it back on and if it works you might get a top 5 talent at a major position of need in the 2nd round!

 

 

I have a busy day ahead frustratingly.... I was supposed to be off work but now need to go in for a meeting this afternoon, then home, sleep and ready for round 2 at midnight. From a Bills perspective let's hope it goes as well as round 1 did.

 

 

[17 Josh Allen]

Great post you need to be in Buffalo attending Bills games at the Ralph. Your die hard baby. Go BILLS

[Nanker]

Nice write up Gunner. You're really into it.

[Al Czervik]

Good read...Thanks for the morning recap!

[Webster Guy]

I think our next pick will be bpa among wr, lb/safety.

 

This 1st round went as all of them seem to go--lots of surprises, players falling and rising. We knew shaq was our guy before dopey announced it at the podium.

 

On a side note, all the negative stuff from Gruden and company was a joke. We switched the channel to rich eisen and the boys, I highly recommend it, a far better way to watch the draft.

[ALF]

Wonder why Chicago crowd booed the commish so much? You would think he was in Boston.

[YoloinOhio]

Wonder why Chicago crowd booed the commish so much? You would think he was in Boston.

that was annoying.

[mrags]

Wonder why Chicago crowd booed the commish so much? You would think he was in Boston.

he always gets booed. As do the Pats when they are on the board.

[Dr. Who]

Nice OP. I like Reed, Billings, or Chris Jones if one is available at #49.

 

I hate the booing of Goodell. He's not my favorite, but it's just classless, mob behavior.

[Deranged Rhino]

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Good stuff GB please keep your analysis coming.

 

Trader Doug buckled down and stayed put this time and his draft board came to him. The first round played out well for us.

[Luxy312]

Wonder why Chicago crowd booed the commish so much? You would think he was in Boston.

 

I was in the crowd and there were a few sections where there were an inordinate number of Florida State alumni drunk off their asses and acting like idiots. I'm not sure that they even knew why they were booing Goodell. The biggest idiot in the group wasn't even wearing an NFL jersey. He was wearing a Florida State jersey! The best part about draft town is that out of the thousands of dressed up NFL fans that I saw, there was just ONE Patriots fan. I guess when you cheat and ultimately get slapped in the nuts, that you pretty much stay home. LOL.