Fitz calls his shot -Update Signed w/Jets

[JohnC]

I guess where we disagree is IF the Jets are going t have Fitz back it's going to be much closer to the $12M that he offered than the $8M that they did. The Jets need Fitz way more than he needs them. If they don't have him they start one of those bums. If he doesn't play football he can do a bunch of other things. He has $40M & a Harvard education. Someone hit the nail on the head earlier when they say that the Jets have to play football, Fitz doesn't.

 

There is no reason to run out an expensive, veteran team and a QB that isn't in the top 50 in the NFL. You should cut all of your losses, tank and try to get Watson.

It's obvious that you and I and many steadfast others have a fundamental disagreement on this issue that probably can't be reconciled. However, let me take another perspective on this issue. It's clear that the GM and organization were obviously aware that this qb and contract issue had to be addressed this offseason. I'm sure you will agree that making a decision on who your starter is going to be and the contract that he is going to garner is a critical issue that all organizations are going to put some thought into prior to when the decision will have to be made. This is also a major issue that the organization at the minimum would include the owner and at least keep him informed.

 

The point I'm making is that this was an issue that included a lot of organizational thought. You can disagree with their stance but for them there are reasons why they are being so tough minded on this issue.

 

As I told you a couple of times in prior posts watch what the Jets do and don't listen to the noise. They know what the market is for Fitz and they are going to respond accordingly. As I have said before there is a good chance that after the negotiating dances are done there will be a deal that will lean more towards the organization's position than the Fitz position.

[Kirby Jackson]

It's obvious that you and I and many steadfast others have a fundamental disagreement on this issue that probably can't be reconciled. However, let me take another perspective on this issue. It's clear that the GM and organization were obviously aware that this qb and contract issue had to be addressed this offseason. I'm sure you will agree that making a decision on who your starter is going to be and the contract that he is going to garner is a critical issue that all organizations are going to put some thought into prior to when the decision will have to be made. This is also a major issue that the organization at the minimum would include the owner and at least keep him informed.

 

The point I'm making is that this was an issue that included a lot of organizational thought. You can disagree with their stance but for them there are reasons why they are being so tough minded on this issue.

 

As I told you a couple of times in prior posts watch what the Jets do and don't listen to the noise. They know what the market is for Fitz and they are going to respond accordingly. As I have said before there is a good chance that after the negotiating dances are done there will be a deal that will lean more towards the organization's position than the Fitz position.

I don't disagree with any of that. Where we don't see eye to eye is that they are playing a game of chicken that they can't win. If they stay firm at that number they win 5 games and anger their whole roster and fanbase. Fitz broke the franchise passing records and they won 10 games. No one thinks that Fitz is Brady but he is so much better than their QBs. Everyone, including the Jets, know this.

 

The Bills example is a good one. Can you imagine if TT was unsigned and the Bills tried to lowball him? They tried to save $4M and run EJ out there?!? Everyone would think that's crazy. That's the situation. They have a chance to win 10 games or save $4M and win 5. You can play hardball with guards and safeties but not QB. He is a 5 win swing on that team. They have no choice.

[JohnC]

I don't disagree with any of that. Where we don't see eye to eye is that they are playing a game of chicken that they can't win. If they stay firm at that number they win 5 games and anger their whole roster and fanbase. Fitz broke the franchise passing records and they won 10 games. No one thinks that Fitz is Brady but he is so much better than their QBs. Everyone, including the Jets, know this.

 

The Bills example is a good one. Can you imagine if TT was unsigned and the Bills tried to lowball him? They tried to save $4M and run EJ out there?!? Everyone would think that's crazy. That's the situation. They have a chance to win 10 games or save $4M and win 5. You can play hardball with guards and safeties but not QB. He is a 5 win swing on that team. They have no choice.

Buddy Nix required Fitz to take a pay cut when he didn't have a viable option. Fitz declined and went on his way and I believe played for much less. (If you have the figure that Nix offered Fitz and what he eventually signed for with another team I would appreciate it. )

 

John Elway established a ceiling price for Osweiller and wasn't going beyond his established value figure. Elway did this with at the time no viable option at qb, and it can be argued that currently he is in a precarious position at qb. I'm sure you will agree that the Broncos should be considered by most people a SB contending team. Yet Elway was willing to leave a void at qb because he didn't believe he was getting a good value deal with Osweiller.

 

The Jets certainly had to know what position they would be in when they mapped out their contract strategy for him. Then why did they take such a hard stance instead of being more flexible and demonstrating to Fitz that they valued him and wanted him? The answer is obvious. It seems that their value calculation is much different from outsiders. While many people continue to say they shouldn't do what others are suggesting their actions say otherwise.

[Kirby Jackson]

Buddy Nix required Fitz to take a pay cut when he didn't have a viable option. Fitz declined and went on his way and I believe played for much less. (If you have the figure that Nix offered Fitz and what he eventually signed for with another team I would appreciate it. )

 

John Elway established a ceiling price for Osweiller and wasn't going beyond his established value figure. Elway did this with at the time no viable option at qb, and it can be argued that currently he is in a precarious position at qb. I'm sure you will agree that the Broncos should be considered by most people a SB contending team. Yet Elway was willing to leave a void at qb because he didn't believe he was getting a good value deal with Osweiller.

 

The Jets certainly had to know what position they would be in when they mapped out their contract strategy for him. Then why did they take such a hard stance instead of being more flexible and demonstrating to Fitz that they valued him and wanted him? The answer is obvious. It seems that their value calculation is much different from outsiders. While many people continue to say they shouldn't do what others are suggesting their actions say otherwise.

Osweiler at $18Mis absurd. Fitz at $12M is more than reasonable. No one is praising the Broncos. They won the Super Bowl and are going to run Tevor Simien out? That doesn't impress me at all but at least they have the ring. They won't be a playoff team this year. They didn't kill their cap but they did kill their championship window.

 

The Jets are a 10 win team or a 5 win team and Fitz is the difference. It is so obviously worth the $4M difference. No one thinks the Jets are wise in how they have played this. If they would have moved up and added Goff or Wentz people may have loved their strategy. They could have used Wilkerson to get up in the draft and opened the cap space while potentially improving the QB. Now their options are Geno or Fitz. They can't win by holding out. They already lost by having their current QB depth chart.

 

Their only other option is to make a move and find a QB that way for less than Fitz that can give you CLOSE yo the production that he provided. Chase Daniel would be my target. They aren't going to go into the year with Geno, Petty and Sackenberg and EVERYONE knows that. They have to make a move, not Fitz.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Buddy Nix required Fitz to take a pay cut when he didn't have a viable option. Fitz declined and went on his way and I believe played for much less. (If you have the figure that Nix offered Fitz and what he eventually signed for with another team I would appreciate it. )

 

People keep bringing up the Nix thing and I'm not sure it's a great comparator: one often overlooked factor is that the Bills new coach, Marrone, was bringing in a WCO. I don't think it's a stretch to believe Marrone may have lobbied for a vet versed in WCO terminology (I believe Fitz has been an Erhard-Perkins guy all his NFL life, the other major offensive terminology in the NFL) - that would have been Kolb. So the Bills decision re: Fitz may well have been a football decision, not solely a financial one. They may also have believed that EJ was closer to NFL-ready than he was.

 

The other reason why the Nix/Fitz negotiation may not be a great comparator: since then the Bills have arguably payed a lot of money for worse QB play.

 

In answer to your question:

No one from Fitz camp has ever revealed what the Bills offered Fitz. The Bills put it out that they offered him a 4 year contract "averaging $3M a year with the chance for an additional $4M in incentives". The devil is in the details: was anything guaranteed, and what was the first year's salary? Usually 4 year contracts escalate considerably as they advance, and the first year is low. One rumor is that the Bills wanted him to play for TJax money with nothing guaranteed in 2013 (that would be ~$1.75M). They could cut him the day before the season and owe nothing.

 

The Titans signed him for 2 years, $6.5M - which is more than the Bills say they offered, not less. Fitz was paid $3.3M by the Titans in 2013 and the contract included guaranteed money (a signing bonus of $1.75M since the Titans carried dead cap of $.875M on Fitz when they cut him next year). I think that forms a reasonable estimate of what Fitz would have been willing to renegotiate. Thus the Bills claim that they offered him 4 years, $3M/year suggests that there was something in the structure of the contract that paid less than $3M in 2013 and/or nothing guaranteed.

 

The Math of Fitzsnippage by the Bills:

2013

Before Fitz was cut, he was due $3M in roster bonus and $7.4M in salary. He cost them $4M in dead money in 2013 and $7M in 2014. 2013 Fitzsavings: $6.4M (or, paying him $4M for not playing)

TJax was signed to $1.75M that spring, $.500M signing bonus lost when he was cut before training camp. 2013 Fitzsavings: $5.9M Payment for a guy who never played: $.500M

Kevin Kolb was signed to 2 yr/$6.1M with a $1M signing bonus and $2 M salary/roster & workout bonus. 2013 Fitzsavings: $2.9M. Payment for a guy who never played: $3M (likely injury guarantee).

EJ Manuel 4 years/$8.8M fully guaranteed with $4.8M signing bonus and $0.4M 2013 salary. 2013 Fitzsavings: $-2.3M

Jeff Tuel was signed to 3 year/$1.5M. No signing bonus (I think) 2013 Fitzsavings: $-2.8M

Thad Lewis was traded from Detroit. Couldn't find info but 4th year player had to be paid $.630M vet minimum in 2013. Fitzsavings: $-3.43M

 

I don't know about your economic analysis, but mine says the Bills woulda been better off (in terms of QB play, and fiscally) keeping Fitz on the roster by offering him a better renegotiated deal, than cutting him in favor of $3.5M to 2 guys who never played and $8.8M guaranteed to a 1st round draftee widely regarded as a big project.

 

2014:

Fitz still cost the Bills $7M against the cap. I'm not sure what they would have paid him in 2014 - I don't have Spotrac Premium, so I can't calculate Fitzsavings the same way. Texans paid him $3M in 2014.

Kyle Orton was signed for 2 years/$11M including $3M signing bonus and $2.5M salary. He delivered competent QB play all season for that $5.5M, but was not willing to put his body on the line for that extra yard which might have won the Bills an extra game or so, then retired.

EJ Manuel was paid $0.81M salary.

total investment in QB for 2014: $6.3M active money plus $7.5M dead money = $13.8M of salary cap invested in QB play

 

So maybe Nix/Bills interactions with Fitz and other QB aren't a great example to hold up of smart football cost/benefit analysis?

[What a Tuel]

 

People keep bringing up the Nix thing and I'm not sure it's a great comparator: one often overlooked factor is that the Bills new coach, Marrone, was bringing in a WCO. I don't think it's a stretch to believe Marrone may have lobbied for a vet versed in WCO terminology (I believe Fitz has been an Erhard-Perkins guy all his NFL life, the other major offensive terminology in the NFL) - that would have been Kolb. So the Bills decision re: Fitz may well have been a football decision, not solely a financial one. They may also have believed that EJ was closer to NFL-ready than he was.

 

This is good information. I always wondered why they thought Kolb would be a better alternative than Fitz outside of cost. I hated the Kolb signing, but if this were true, at least it had some reasoning behind it.

[YoloinOhio]

 

This is good information. I always wondered why they thought Kolb would be a better alternative than Fitz outside of cost. I hated the Kolb signing, but if this were true, at least it had some reasoning behind it.

it is interesting. But, I do remember Marrone saying something to the effect of being surprised when Fitz was cut and that he was under the impression when he was hired that was going to be his QB. Edited June 5, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[Beerball]

 

They may also have believed that EJ was closer to NFL-ready than he was.

They were actually probably right. EJ was as close to NFL ready for his first start as he is now. (sadly for us that's not a positive statement)

[What a Tuel]

it is interesting. But, I do remember Marrone saying something to the effect of being surprised when Fitz was cut and that he was under the impression when he was hired that was going to be his QB.

 

Back to square one with that call then

[3rdand12]

My memory is poor and my eyesight worse.

 

After the Nix phone call Fitz was pissed that he was not going to be the starter long term.

Fitz left us as much as we him.

lotta money left out there. bad management regardless.

Even his big payday as a Bill turned sour quickly.

 

its not you you ryan its me. well its a little bit you.

[BADOLBILZ]

They were actually probably right. EJ was as close to NFL ready for his first start as he is now. (sadly for us that's not a positive statement)

 

 

 

They didn't even draft EJ until a couple months after they cut Fitz so not sure why that is part of the discussion.

 

There is no rational justifying the swapping out of Fitz in exchange for Kolb and $10M+ in dead money.

 

Fitz isn't that good........Kolb was just that awful of an acquisition.

 

The idea that Fitz couldn't pick up a WCO terminology is priceless though..........Kevin Kolb was seriously brain damaged by the time the Bills acquired him, his familiarity with terminology was going to be of little use when he could barely function as a human being at that point.

 

That's the only time I've ever felt like a team should be held civilly liable for exposing a player to further injury............how the Bills medical staff passed that guy is beyond me.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

This is good information. I always wondered why they thought Kolb would be a better alternative than Fitz outside of cost. I hated the Kolb signing, but if this were true, at least it had some reasoning behind it.

 

Just to clarify, it's speculation...it's fact that Marrone used a WCO and Fitz previously played for Cincy and StL - I believe both EP offenses. But it's speculation that Marrone wanting a WCO guy was a factor.

 

Also clarification : I'm saying is that I don't think Nix and his handling of Fitz and his contract should be cited as an example of a team making smart talent evaluation/contract decisions. I am not saying that Fitz should have been kept - that ship has sailed years back. Just that from an analysis of the money we ate and paid to other QB (some of whom never played a snap for us), it's hard to construct an argument for it as a smart example of a team taking a hard line in a contract negotiation.

Edited June 6, 2016 by Hopeful

[Hapless Bills Fan]

it is interesting. But, I do remember Marrone saying something to the effect of being surprised when Fitz was cut and that he was under the impression when he was hired that was going to be his QB.

 

I don't remember that at all; any chance you could find it? I remember the TJax re-signing, and Marrone announcing that there would be an "open competition" at QB between Fitz and TJax. Since Fitz was due to be paid $10.4M and TJax was signed for $1.75M, that's not exactly what you announce if you're "under the impression ........ is gonna be your QB". That, and your GM announcing the team will draft a QB, are hardly a recipe for "being surprised" at a cut.

After the Nix phone call Fitz was pissed that he was not going to be the starter long term.

Fitz left us as much as we him.

 

That's been the "party line" around here, but what evidence, really, is there to support it? Fitz has said on the record that the phone call wasn't a factor. Before the Catfishing phone call, the Bills signed TJax and Marrone announced "open competition" between TJax and Fitz, while Nix stated they would draft a QB. It hardly needed Deadspin publishing the Nix call for Fitz to know the Bills wanted him to either step up or move out.

[iinii]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2643465-jets-need-reality-check-if-they-plan-to-continue-without-ryan-fitzpatrick

 

Fitz won't cave.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2643465-jets-need-reality-check-if-they-plan-to-continue-without-ryan-fitzpatrick

 

Fitz won't cave.

 

So per that link, Fitz's agent told the Jets he's willing to play on a 1 year for $12M, and the Jets won't take it?

 

They're nuts.

 

Oh wait, they're broke

[eball]

 

That's been the "party line" around here, but what evidence, really, is there to support it? Fitz has said on the record that the phone call wasn't a factor. Before the Catfishing phone call, the Bills signed TJax and Marrone announced "open competition" between TJax and Fitz, while Nix stated they would draft a QB. It hardly needed Deadspin publishing the Nix call for Fitz to know the Bills wanted him to either step up or move out.

 

I think it's the party line because it makes the most sense. Hearing your GM say the actual words on a taped phone call is different from hearing your front office talk about drafting a QB for the future.

 

In case you've forgotten, here's what Nix said:

 

"We're still struggling here with our quarterback...We're not really struggling—he's going to have to do something, or we'll have to."

More Nix on Fitzpatrick: "We just can't afford to pay that kind of money for a guy who's fighting for probably a backup job."

Fitz saying the call wasn't a factor is just Fitz being a stand-up guy.

Edited June 6, 2016 by eball

[3rdand12]

 

I don't remember that at all; any chance you could find it? I remember the TJax re-signing, and Marrone announcing that there would be an "open competition" at QB between Fitz and TJax. Since Fitz was due to be paid $10.4M and TJax was signed for $1.75M, that's not exactly what you announce if you're "under the impression ........ is gonna be your QB". That, and your GM announcing the team will draft a QB, are hardly a recipe for "being surprised" at a cut.

 

That's been the "party line" around here, but what evidence, really, is there to support it? Fitz has said on the record that the phone call wasn't a factor. Before the Catfishing phone call, the Bills signed TJax and Marrone announced "open competition" between TJax and Fitz, while Nix stated they would draft a QB. It hardly needed Deadspin publishing the Nix call for Fitz to know the Bills wanted him to either step up or move out.

I cannot defend my vague memory

 

But that was a lot of dead money

[YoloinOhio]

 

I don't remember that at all; any chance you could find it? I remember the TJax re-signing, and Marrone announcing that there would be an "open competition" at QB between Fitz and TJax. Since Fitz was due to be paid $10.4M and TJax was signed for $1.75M, that's not exactly what you announce if you're "under the impression ........ is gonna be your QB". That, and your GM announcing the team will draft a QB, are hardly a recipe for "being surprised" at a cut.

 

 

That's been the "party line" around here, but what evidence, really, is there to support it? Fitz has said on the record that the phone call wasn't a factor. Before the Catfishing phone call, the Bills signed TJax and Marrone announced "open competition" between TJax and Fitz, while Nix stated they would draft a QB. It hardly needed Deadspin publishing the Nix call for Fitz to know the Bills wanted him to either step up or move out.

it wasn't that long ago - like within the last 4-6 months. I think it was a Carucci/Graham or Dunne podcast or Sirius radio spot. I think it was either after the season or leading up to one of the Fitz matchups. I will look when I get a chance. Though I don't know if it contradicts what he said about having Fitz compete with TJax. Just that he was looking forward to coaching Fitz and expected to have him. Edited June 6, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[JohnC]

 

People keep bringing up the Nix thing and I'm not sure it's a great comparator: one often overlooked factor is that the Bills new coach, Marrone, was bringing in a WCO. I don't think it's a stretch to believe Marrone may have lobbied for a vet versed in WCO terminology (I believe Fitz has been an Erhard-Perkins guy all his NFL life, the other major offensive terminology in the NFL) - that would have been Kolb. So the Bills decision re: Fitz may well have been a football decision, not solely a financial one. They may also have believed that EJ was closer to NFL-ready than he was.

 

The other reason why the Nix/Fitz negotiation may not be a great comparator: since then the Bills have arguably payed a lot of money for worse QB play.

 

In answer to your question:

No one from Fitz camp has ever revealed what the Bills offered Fitz. The Bills put it out that they offered him a 4 year contract "averaging $3M a year with the chance for an additional $4M in incentives". The devil is in the details: was anything guaranteed, and what was the first year's salary? Usually 4 year contracts escalate considerably as they advance, and the first year is low. One rumor is that the Bills wanted him to play for TJax money with nothing guaranteed in 2013 (that would be ~$1.75M). They could cut him the day before the season and owe nothing.

 

The Titans signed him for 2 years, $6.5M - which is more than the Bills say they offered, not less. Fitz was paid $3.3M by the Titans in 2013 and the contract included guaranteed money (a signing bonus of $1.75M since the Titans carried dead cap of $.875M on Fitz when they cut him next year). I think that forms a reasonable estimate of what Fitz would have been willing to renegotiate. Thus the Bills claim that they offered him 4 years, $3M/year suggests that there was something in the structure of the contract that paid less than $3M in 2013 and/or nothing guaranteed.

 

The Math of Fitzsnippage by the Bills:

2013

Before Fitz was cut, he was due $3M in roster bonus and $7.4M in salary. He cost them $4M in dead money in 2013 and $7M in 2014. 2013 Fitzsavings: $6.4M (or, paying him $4M for not playing)

TJax was signed to $1.75M that spring, $.500M signing bonus lost when he was cut before training camp. 2013 Fitzsavings: $5.9M Payment for a guy who never played: $.500M

Kevin Kolb was signed to 2 yr/$6.1M with a $1M signing bonus and $2 M salary/roster & workout bonus. 2013 Fitzsavings: $2.9M. Payment for a guy who never played: $3M (likely injury guarantee).

EJ Manuel 4 years/$8.8M fully guaranteed with $4.8M signing bonus and $0.4M 2013 salary. 2013 Fitzsavings: $-2.3M

Jeff Tuel was signed to 3 year/$1.5M. No signing bonus (I think) 2013 Fitzsavings: $-2.8M

Thad Lewis was traded from Detroit. Couldn't find info but 4th year player had to be paid $.630M vet minimum in 2013. Fitzsavings: $-3.43M

 

I don't know about your economic analysis, but mine says the Bills woulda been better off (in terms of QB play, and fiscally) keeping Fitz on the roster by offering him a better renegotiated deal, than cutting him in favor of $3.5M to 2 guys who never played and $8.8M guaranteed to a 1st round draftee widely regarded as a big project.

 

2014:

Fitz still cost the Bills $7M against the cap. I'm not sure what they would have paid him in 2014 - I don't have Spotrac Premium, so I can't calculate Fitzsavings the same way. Texans paid him $3M in 2014.

Kyle Orton was signed for 2 years/$11M including $3M signing bonus and $2.5M salary. He delivered competent QB play all season for that $5.5M, but was not willing to put his body on the line for that extra yard which might have won the Bills an extra game or so, then retired.

EJ Manuel was paid $0.81M salary.

total investment in QB for 2014: $6.3M active money plus $7.5M dead money = $13.8M of salary cap invested in QB play

 

So maybe Nix/Bills interactions with Fitz and other QB aren't a great example to hold up of smart football cost/benefit analysis?

You are making too detailed of an analysis of Fitz and the contracts he has garnered from the multiple teams he has played for. The general conclusion and observation I take away from his contracts is that he is not a well valued qb, and never has been. It's as simple as that. He is not a franchise qb from a talent standpoint. He has been a vagabond qb for half a dozen teams who after a short stay moves on to his next stop.

 

Fitz had a good statistical year last year. So what! Does it represent his talent level and body of work? Absolutely not. It was an aberration, not his usual standard. Fitz's last game in Buffalo that eliminated his team was a performance that Buffalo fans are well acquainted with. Do you believe that the Jet front office after watching that Fitz horrifying performance that sabotaged their playoff chances decided to be more committed to him and have it reflected by their contract offer? Let's get serious here.

 

People are now criticizing Nix for his contract stance on Fitz which resulted in his departure. There is a lot of things to criticize him for but I'm not going to criticize him for taking a common sense position on offering a mediocre qb a contract commensurate with his talent lvel.

 

Were the Bills a better team with or without Fitz? Who gives a dam about that meaningless question! Because with Fitz you still go nowhere. So why not try another option? If it doesn't work out, then try another option. Overpaying for someone who is not going to lead your team to anywhere consequential is pointless. So on this issue Nix was right on how he handled Fitz.

 

I don't know if the Jets and Fitz will get a deal done. However, I understand their position and find it to be reasonable. The fundamental issue is paying a player commensurate to their talent level. That is what they are attempting to do here for a player where there is no other market interest.

Edited June 6, 2016 by JohnC

[FireChan]

Too detailed of an analysis. Now I've REALLY heard everything.