Fitz calls his shot -Update Signed w/Jets

[Luxy312]

Every team in the league makes the room for their QB. They come first. They can extend Wilkerson and lower his cap hit by $6M. Brent Ginacomini saves you $5M. That puts you at $13M+ in cap space which is plenty to fit a $12M a year into. Kenbrell Thompkins saves you another $1.6M. The cap space isn't even a little concern. The Jets are complete idiots. You can play hardball with a lot of different positions and minimize the drop off. It isn't like they have McCarron or someone like that on the roster that can fill in. The guys behind Fitz are atrocious.

 

Your arguments are usually pretty good, but I find your take on Fitzpatrick pretty weak for a number of reasons. First, you're assuming that Wilkerson's cap number can be reduced from $15.7m to less than 10. That's an absolute pipe dream. You know he's asking for JJ Watt type money, right? So for his 6 year extension, JJ Watt is counting $14.5m, $14.5m, $15.0m, $15.0m, $15.5m, $17.5m for 2016 on. ZERO chance Wilkerson takes a home town 33% discount when he's considered by many to be the 2nd best DE in the league. That's fail #1. Giacomini saves you $4.375m. That coupled with what they have already gives them $7.475m in cap space. To boot, you're assuming that they would be willing to give a multi-year $12m per year deal to a journeyman QB that's not the future of the franchise. You can't avoid facts based on what you think is convenient. The Jets are in dead money cap hell and they're not going to make it worse by signing a guy that thus far, no other team in the NFL, even wants. Certainly not at the price you're suggesting.

BTW, using the Bills as a proxy example is a big fail as well. Buffalo has $13.6 million of cap space right now. They wouldn't give Tyrod the mega-deal before this season starts, but could certainly afford the $12m figure per year we're talking about. My guess is that for Buffalo's situation that both the team and Tyrod are holding their cards tight to the chest. If Tyrod performs, he gets $18m per year and a lot of guaranteed money. If he doesn't perform, the Bills can simply look for their QB of the future, perhaps in next year's draft.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Your arguments are usually pretty good, but I find your take on Fitzpatrick pretty weak for a number of reasons. First, you're assuming that Wilkerson's cap number can be reduced from $15.7m to less than 10. That's an absolute pipe dream. You know he's asking for JJ Watt type money, right? So for his 6 year extension, JJ Watt is counting $14.5m, $14.5m, $15.0m, $15.0m, $15.5m, $17.5m for 2016 on. ZERO chance Wilkerson takes a home town 33% discount when he's considered by many to be the 2nd best DE in the league. That's fail #1. Giacomini saves you $4.375m. That coupled with what they have already gives them $7.475m in cap space. To boot, you're assuming that they would be willing to give a multi-year $12m per year deal to a journeyman QB that's not the future of the franchise. You can't avoid facts based on what you think is convenient. The Jets are in dead money cap hell and they're not going to make it worse by signing a guy that thus far, no other team in the NFL, even wants. Certainly not at the price you're suggesting.

I'm not suggesting that Wilkerson takes any discount. I am suggesting that they structure the contract to minimize his year one cap hit. Have the guaranteed money spread out more evenly over the life of the contract. Kick the can down the road if you will. Everyone does it. They can absolutely get his year 1 cap hit to $10M. How about a 5 year deal $100M deal with $52.5M guaranteed? They can have a $1.75M base in year one, a $30M signing bonus with a $2.25M roster bonus in year one. That puts his year one cap hit at $10M. They would have to guarantee his year 2 and 3 salaries as well but it can be done.

 

You tell me a QB that threw for 3,9000 yards and 31 TDs (not on a rookie deal) that makes less than $12M a year (I'll wait)? The market says that Fitz is $13.2M a year guy (at least according to sportrac). $12M would be considered a deal. They can get him $12M in year one guaranteed based on those couple of cap moves. They can do something like this 3 years $32M with $22M guaranteed. Give him a $18M signing bonus and a year one roster bonus of $4M. That would have his year 1 cap hit at about $12M but would have, year 2 at maybe $8M and year 3 you would have the $6M in dead money. That would be way on the low end but much better than the Jets garbage offer.

 

The whole problem with this conversation and I said it way up thread is that people are having a hard time wrapping their heads around the $12-$15M number. We think of that as a number for a star player http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/quarterback/. Look at that list of average QB salaries and tell me where Fitz slots in? He has been pretty clear that he will play for less than his market value. He will not play for something like $8M though. The Jets need him desperately and will be forced to make the concessions to get him in.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[CommonCents]

The Jets are just playing games. Look at this contract offer http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/jets/ryan-fitzpatrick-s-latest-contract-offer-from-jets-three-years-15m-guaranteed-1.11859232

 

So if Fitz signed that and had another good year for the Jets he would then be under contract for 2 more years at 6 million per. What do they think he is a fool? Did they think he was going to be wowed by the 12 million in year one?

If the Jets want him to be a place holder for one year they can simply sign a 3 year deal with Fitz, give him the 12 million in year one and then use the two remaining years too spread out the money. See the contract Revis signed with the Pats, it allows the team to manipulate the salary cap and the player knows fully he will never see year two of the deal.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Commonsense

[Mr. WEO]

The Jets certainly aren't showing the desperation that you believe they should exhibit. I agree with you that if Fitz is not on the roster this year they don't currently have a credible option at qb. But that doesn't mean that they can't go out and get another pedestrian veteran who could be the reasonably priced bridge qb.

 

Where I differ from you and most other posters position on this issue is that even acknowledging that Fitz had a good year last year I don't think much of him as a starter. Nix was willing to allow Fritz to leave the scene and it appears to me that the Jets aren't afraid of him leaving the scene. Another example of an organization establishing a value on a qb and refusing to budge from their valuation is Denver. Elway was not afraid to lose Osweiller when their contract ceiling was established creating a void at that critical position.

 

Most posters are insisting that the Jets can't not sign Fitz even if it is more than what they are willing to sign him for. Their actions so far is indicating a different mind set to the conventional reasoning being offered.

 

Very simple question:

 

If the Jets aren't as desperate as some say, why are they STILL negotiating with Fitz this late instead of signing one of those many other QBs who could do what he did last year?

Edited June 2, 2016 by Mr. WEO

[Luxy312]

I'm not suggesting that Wilkerson takes any discount. I am suggesting that they structure the contract to minimize his year one cap hit. Have the guaranteed money spread out more evenly over the life of the contract. Kick the can down the road if you will. Everyone does it. They can absolutely get his year 1 cap hit to $10M. How about a 5 year deal $100M deal with $52.5M guaranteed? They can have a $1.75M base in year one, a $30M signing bonus with a $2.25M roster bonus in year one. That puts his year one cap hit at $10M. They would have to guarantee his year 2 and 3 salaries as well but it can be done.

 

You tell me a QB that through for 3,9000 yards and 31 TDs (not on a rookie deal) that makes less than $12M a year (I'll wait)? The market says that Fitz is $13.2M a year guy (at least according to over the cap). $12M would be considered a deal. They can get him $12M in year one guaranteed based on those couple of cap moves. They can do something like this 3 years $32M with $22M guaranteed. Give him a $18M signing bonus and a year one roster bonus of $4M. That would have his year 1 cap hit at about $12M but would have, year 2 at maybe $8M and year 3 you would have the $6M in dead money. That would be way on the low end but much better than the Jets garbage offer.

 

The whole problem with this conversation and I said it way up thread is that people are having a hard time wrapping their heads around the $12-$15M number. We think of that as a number for a star player http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/quarterback/. Look at that list of average QB salaries and tell me where Fitz slots in? He has been pretty clear that he will play for less than his market value. He will not play for something like $8M though. The Jets need him desperately and will be forced to make the concessions to get him in.

 

You can cite his numbers from last year all you want and it won't matter. Here's what matters to me. 33 year old quarterback with 11 years NFL experience on 6 different teams. For 10 years, he's been average to below average. Hey, quick question and yes, I will wait. Who else is jumping in to offer your 3,900 yards and 31 TDs quarterback a contract? Thus far nobody. Certainly not the Jets. If $12m was SUCH a good deal for any NFL team, then where's the list of suitors lining up to bid on him? I'm hearing crickets here.

 

In regards to Wilkerson, the Jets aren't going to put themselves in future cap hell for a journeyman QB. That's just plain stupid (if the Jets were considering it, not you). Just think about what that would mean. If you make years 2-3 the MINIMUM to make the guarantee happen, that means $17.25m per year cap hit for him in those years. Fill out the rest and his base salary in years 4-5 would be $21.75m + $6.0 prorated bonus. Wilkerson is 26 and they're just not doing that for a guy in the peak of his career to get a 33 YO that's had 1 good year out of 11. By the way, with your example, the Jets would have to either take a $27.75 million cap hit in year 4 of his contract or release him and have $12.0 million in dead money for that year. That would be for a 29 year old DE who could be one of the best still in the NFL at that time.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Luxy312

[Maury Ballstein]

Very simple question:

 

If the Jets aren't as desperate as some say, why are they STILL negotiating with Fitz this late instead of signing one of those many other QBs who could do what he did last year?

Because fitz is better at throwing 3 ints in a must win game than Geno/Petty/Hackenberg ?

[Doc]

Very simple question:

 

If the Jets aren't as desperate as some say, why are they STILL negotiating with Fitz this late instead of signing one of those many other QBs who could do what he did last year?

 

Why should they be desperate? They can miss the playoffs just as easily with Fitz as they can Geno/Petty/Hack, and at a much lower cost.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

You can cite his numbers from last year all you want and it won't matter. Here's what matters to me. 33 year old quarterback with 11 years NFL experience on 6 different teams. For 10 years, he's been average to below average. Hey, quick question and yes, I will wait. Who else is jumping in to offer your 3,900 yards and 31 TDs quarterback a contract? Thus far nobody. Certainly not the Jets. If $12m was SUCH a good deal for any NFL team, then where's the list of suitors lining up to bid on him? I'm hearing crickets here.

 

In regards to Wilkerson, the Jets aren't going to put themselves in future cap hell for a journeyman QB. That's just plain stupid (if the Jets were considering it, not you). Just think about what that would mean. If you make years 2-3 the MINIMUM to make the guarantee happen, that means $17.25m per year cap hit for him in those years. Fill out the rest and his base salary in years 4-5 would be $21.75m + $6.0 prorated bonus. Wilkerson is 26 and they're just not doing that for a guy in the peak of his career to get a 33 YO that's had 1 good year out of 11. By the way, with your example, the Jets would have to either take a $27.75 million cap hit in year 4 of his contract or release him and have $12.0 million in dead money for that year. That would be for a 29 year old DE who could be one of the best still in the NFL at that time.

Or they can extend him (like every team but the Saints do)?

 

Over the last 2 years Fitz has 48 TDS and 23 INTs (not last one year). He is playing his best football right now. There are other QBs that had their best years as they go older (see Gannon, Rich or Warner, Kurt). I am not suggesting that he is either one of those guys but his most recent years are a better indicator than 7 years ago.

 

The only other team at this point that may be interested in his services are Denver. They are a Super Bowl contender with him. They are the defending champ and got way worse QB play last year than the Jets did. Outside of this message board I have yet to hear 1 person suggest that $12M a year for Fitzpatrick is outlandish. Most everyone would agree that is fantastic value. There is a reason that the Jets aren't making any progress.

 

It is just absurd to me that people think the Jets are playing this right. They have a playoff caliber team and are going to start a QB that isn't one of the 50 best in the NFL!!!! They are going to go from a top 25ish QB to the 50 something best over $4m?!?!? That is asinine and I have yet to hear a neutral person that thinks otherwise. The Jets players even think that it is crazy. Just wait until the next time they try to play hardball with a free agent.

 

Why should they be desperate? They can miss the playoffs just as easily with Fitz as they can Geno/Petty/Hack, and at a much lower cost.

This did make me chuckle. In all seriousness, if they don't believe they are a playoff caliber team than they should not re-sign Fitz. The hard part will be convincing your fans of that after a 10 win season. If the Jets start one of those other guys they will be picking in the top 10 next year for sure. They are looking at like 5 wins.

if they are going to bite the bullet they should try to deal Wilkerson for a 1st as well. That will give them cap space next year as well as 2 #1's (with at least 1 in the top 10). They will have the ammo to chase Deshaun Watson. If they aren't signing Fitz that is what they should do. Good luck keeping your fan base appeased but that would be the best move for them.

[JohnC]

 

Very simple question:

 

If the Jets aren't as desperate as some say, why are they STILL negotiating with Fitz this late instead of signing one of those many other QBs who could do what he did last year?

Where have you heard that the Jets are actively negotiating with Fitz? Where have you heard that they have come off of their tough position? If need be they go with Geno. Is he a better alternative? It doesn't matter. As a long time Bills fan you know that it is not unusual to go with what you got even if what you got is not an appealing option.

 

I'll say to you what I have been saying to Kirby: Don't get caught up how you would analyze the situation and act. Watch what the Jets are doing and how they are reacting and not reacting. That is more illuminating and telling than having outsiders telling them what they should be doing.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

BTW, using the Bills as a proxy example is a big fail as well. Buffalo has $13.6 million of cap space right now. They wouldn't give Tyrod the mega-deal before this season starts, but could certainly afford the $12m figure per year we're talking about. My guess is that for Buffalo's situation that both the team and Tyrod are holding their cards tight to the chest. If Tyrod performs, he gets $18m per year and a lot of guaranteed money. If he doesn't perform, the Bills can simply look for their QB of the future, perhaps in next year's draft.

Nowhere did I advocate signing TT now. That was simply used to communicate the drop off between the starter and the backup. It was not a money conversation. It was a hypothetical. If the Bills said, "we don't need Tyrod we will be fine with EJ" no one would believe it. No one is believing the Jets stance of "we will get by with the guys here." I'm sorry if that point was a "big fail."

Where have you heard that the Jets are actively negotiating with Fitz? Where have you heard that they have come off of their tough position? If need be they go with Geno. Is he a better alternative? It doesn't matter. As a long time Bills fan you know that it is not unusual to go with what you got even if what you got is not an appealing option.

 

I'll say to you what I have been saying to Kirby: Don't get caught up how you would analyze the situation and act. Watch what the Jets are doing and how they are reacting and not reacting. That is more illuminating and telling than having outsiders telling them what they should be doing.

I do agree with this. It is just befuddling that the Jets, coming off a 10 win season are going to lose their starting QB over $4M and go with Geno Smith (or Petty & Sackenberg). It defies logic. They are basically saying that we will go from a top 25 QB to a guy that may not be top 55 and be fine. We will save $4M too!!

[JohnC]

Nowhere did I advocate signing TT now. That was simply used to communicate the drop off between the starter and the backup. It was not a money conversation. It was a hypothetical. If the Bills said, "we don't need Tyrod we will be fine with EJ" no one would believe it. No one is believing the Jets stance of "we will get by with the guys here." I'm sorry if that point was a "big fail."

I do agree with this. It is just befuddling that the Jets, coming off a 10 win season are going to lose their starting QB over $4M and go with Geno Smith (or Petty & Sackenberg). It defies logic. They are basically saying that we will go from a top 25 QB to a guy that may not be top 55 and be fine. We will save $4M too!!

Sometimes good stats do not necessarily reflect how good a player is or how good a team is. The Jets won ten games last year and were at the door step of being a playoff team. But were they really that good of a team? They lost to Buffalo twice. Is Fitz as good as his stats indicated last year? Or was his overall performance an aberration?

 

I get the sense that the GM wants to rebuild the roster and work towards being a serious team, and not merely be a fringe wildcard contender. You have impressively detailed their suffocating cap situation which indicates that in the next season or two high cost players will be jettisoned for cheaper and younger players.

 

You are using the Jets' record last year and their almost qualifying for the playoffs as your basis and framework for making personnel decisions this year. Maybe that is not the perspective that the GM and the organization are viewing the situation. Also, I think you are giving too much weight to what the fans will tolerate from the organization. The last thing an organization should do is make decisions based on what the fans think. That short term type of thinking is a recipe for long term mediocrity. As a Buffalo fan I'm sure you are acquainted with an organization attempting to give the impression they are doing things to improve the situation when in reality it is a smokescreen to hoodwink the fans.

 

My underlying point in this post is that how you view the Jets from the outside does not necessarily correspond to how the organization views itself from the inside. Just something for you to consider. I hate to see a good fellow befuddled!

[Kirby Jackson]

Sometimes good stats do not necessarily reflect how good a player is or how good a team is. The Jets won ten games last year and were at the door step of being a playoff team. But were they really that good of a team? They lost to Buffalo twice. Is Fitz as good as his stats indicated last year? Or was his overall performance an aberration?

 

I get the sense that the GM wants to rebuild the roster and work towards being a serious team, and not merely be a fringe wildcard contender. You have impressively detailed their suffocating cap situation which indicates that in the next season or two high cost players will be jettisoned for cheaper and younger players.

 

You are using the Jets' record last year and their almost qualifying for the playoffs as your basis and framework for making personnel decisions this year. Maybe that is not the perspective that the GM and the organization are viewing the situation. Also, I think you are giving too much weight to what the fans will tolerate from the organization. The last thing an organization should do is make decisions based on what the fans think. That short term type of thinking is a recipe for long term mediocrity. As a Buffalo fan I'm sure you are acquainted with an organization attempting to give the impression they are doing things to improve the situation when in reality it is a smokescreen to hoodwink the fans.

 

My underlying point in this post is that how you view the Jets from the outside does not necessarily correspond to how the organization views itself from the inside. Just something for you to consider. I hate to see a good fellow befuddled!

No one thinks Fitz is great, but he is probably a top 25ish QB. Their next options aren't in the top 50. That's why they are idiots. If they drafted Goff (as an example) I would get them playing hardball with Fitz despite his career year. Without a viable Plan B the Jets have no leverage. Their bluff is being called.

 

The Jets fans and even players think the same thing. Marshall, Decker and Forte have all spoken up on it. No one (including the Jets) believes that they are a better team without Fitzpatrick. They know that. They can easily make the cap room happen. If they use that as an excuse they will be the 1st team in NFL history to not prioritize the QB. That would be a HUGE mistake. They can start him the next 2 years on a reasonable deal with a small cap hit in year 3. They seem to think that they are going to wait him out and he will come crawling back. That's not going to happen.

 

Honestly at this point if the Jets are not going to present a reasonable offer they should start looking elsewhere. The guys that the have stink. They should try to get Glennon or McCarron to be the stop gap. They can take the step back to those guys and it isn't as drastic. They will be going from a top 25 QB to maybe 40. That will cost them an asset or 2. With one of those guys they can maybe be 7-9.

 

Either way how they have handled this is going to kill this regime amongst NFL players. Those WR's are going to bolt the 1st chance that they get. I have never seen a team play its hand worse than the Jets have here. It isn't like the Jets have to destroy their cap to do it either. It is completely illogical.

[3rdand12]

This has been a pretty good read for me in regard to manipulating salary to remain under the cap. Thanks Gents !

 

 

Anyone consider Nick Foles a possibility ?

Seems he is not wanted nor wanting to remain . I think he is an 8 million hit.

Jets would need to trade for him.

[YoloinOhio]

This has been a pretty good read for me in regard to manipulating salary to remain under the cap. Thanks Gents !

 

 

Anyone consider Nick Foles a possibility ?

Seems he is not wanted nor wanting to remain . I think he is an 8 million hit.

Jets would need to trade for him.

there were rumors about the Jets trading for him around the time of the draft. The GM denied it after the draft. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that happen.

[3rdand12]

there were rumors about the Jets trading for him around the time of the draft. The GM denied it after the draft. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that happen.

After reading Foles situation recently , it seemed like jets might reach out.

What would you think it would take to get him to the east coast ?

[YoloinOhio]

After reading Foles situation recently , it seemed like jets might reach out.

What would you think it would take to get him to the east coast ?

i think the Rams would take anything to get rid of him. He is probably a decent fit with Chan's spread too. 5th round? Something similar to the Cassel trade. Edited June 2, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[3rdand12]

i think the Rams would take anything to get rid of him.

C'mon now ! Fisher might not be a great Coach but surely he will have his GM get him something in return

Edited June 2, 2016 by 3rdand12

[YoloinOhio]

C'mon now ! Fisher might not be a great Coach but surely he will have his GM get him something in return

he kind of is the GM. He runs the show. But I don't think they'd get anything higher than a 5th. I think they may end up cutting him if they get nothing. Jmo

[3rdand12]

he kind of is the GM. He runs the show. But I don't think they'd get anything higher than a 5th. I think they may end up cutting him if they get nothing. Jmo

Well then why do the Jets hold some value of him ?

Is he better than Geno at least ?

[YoloinOhio]

Well then why do the Jets hold some value of him ?

Is he better than Geno at least ?

i would think he would be of more value to the Jets than he is to the Rams at this point.