White Linen Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 (edited) Worst case scenario. Tyrod plays Meh, the Bills finish 8-8 to 9-7. Miss the playoffs and end up drafting 19-20 again. Tyrod wants to be paid $15-20MM which he would not be worth, the Bills would not be in a spot to draft one of the top QB's next year. That sounds pretty freaking bad to me. No kidding they're not drafting in the top 5 - so if that's what you want then enjoy your dream. I was speaking in terms of their situation with Tyrod and having to decide to draft a QB - so in those relative terms they're not in a bad spot. You just said it - if they finish in the 19-20 range they'll be in the same spot next year if they choose to not draft a QB in round 1-2 this year. You really didn't think I meant great spot relative to picking first overall did you? Edited April 25, 2016 by Triple Threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I think it really boils down how the FO feels about Tyrod. If they reasonably think he can make a big jump forward then you wait on a QB. If they really feel he has a ceiling and he's almost reached it then you have to draft one early. If Tyrod has a similar year to last year - he'll get 18-22 million. If they draft a QB after the 4th round they have to franchise him. The Bills are in a good spot but evaluating each QB as they've done extensively is a great plan. Similar, as in getting a pro bowl nod or similar to overall QB play? Last year the Bills fielded about the most QB friendly offense they have had in over a decade, IMHO. The Bills had a solid O-line on the left side, a decent receiving corps and they ran the ball to help set up the passing game. Plus, they ran the ball very well averaging 4.8 YPC and were the #1 rushing team in the league and had 19 rushing TD's. Still, the Bills were 31st in three down and out percentage. Conversely, they were 28th in the league in passing yardage and Taylor was ranked 23rd in yards passing. If Tyrod has a similar year to last year while not being able to carry the team with his arm I think the team moves on from him because he was very ineffective at times in some games and every time the team needed to throw more then run that was the case. Should he show some growth in being able to carry the game with his arm then he will indeed get that huge contract. That inability to carry games when the run game wasn't working is what caused the Bills to wait a year to pay him and to look for another QB. That 31st in 3rd down and out is why I hope the Bills spend an early round pick on a RT and in particular I kinda doubt they want to go forward paying Glenn 13.7 mill or even 11+ mill per. Then the RT situation in Buffalo is still rather Iffy. Should make for an interesting draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnwalter Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 That of all the QBs discussed in this draft we'll be lucky if one capable starter emerges. That's just the reality. Every year we talk like there are 4-5-6 viable options and most of these guys are selling cars within 2 years. That said do you really want the Bills to pass on a player who can realistically contribute to pick what is essentially a lottery ticket? I don't. "we'll be lucky if one capable starter emerges" i don't think we'll be lucky, thats about the expected value - i'd put the over/under at 1.5 "capable starters" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santana Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I think Buffalo has to take a QB at some point in this draft. It just doesn't need to be in round 1, there's no point. We have a starter and a QB at 19. We need a lot of help in pretty much every other position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Similar, as in getting a pro bowl nod or similar to overall QB play? Last year the Bills fielded about the most QB friendly offense they have had in over a decade, IMHO. The Bills had a solid O-line on the left side, a decent receiving corps and they ran the ball to help set up the passing game. Plus, they ran the ball very well averaging 4.8 YPC and were the #1 rushing team in the league and had 19 rushing TD's. Still, the Bills were 31st in three down and out percentage. Conversely, they were 28th in the league in passing yardage and Taylor was ranked 23rd in yards passing. If Tyrod has a similar year to last year while not being able to carry the team with his arm I think the team moves on from him because he was very ineffective at times in some games and every time the team needed to throw more then run that was the case. Should he show some growth in being able to carry the game with his arm then he will indeed get that huge contract. That inability to carry games when the run game wasn't working is what caused the Bills to wait a year to pay him and to look for another QB. That 31st in 3rd down and out is why I hope the Bills spend an early round pick on a RT and in particular I kinda doubt they want to go forward paying Glenn 13.7 mill or even 11+ mill per. Then the RT situation in Buffalo is still rather Iffy. Should make for an interesting draft. This is a bit of cherry picking on some things here.....if your gonna be a run the ball dominant team then your not going to have high passing yardage. Still.....I do hope that the bills open it up and have more balance this year so that Tyrod can prove he can do it before getting the 18 plus milllion a year contract..... I think the bills are playing it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 (edited) Please show me a link to where PTR, or anyone else for that matter, suggests that the Bills should sign Tyrod Taylor to an extension before the season starts. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185843-br-broncos-have-inquired-about-tyrod/?p=3914515 http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185565-no-progress-toward-tt-extension-per-carucci;-agent-unhappy/?p=3911155 http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185565-no-progress-toward-tt-extension-per-carucci;-agent-unhappy/page-15?do=findComment&comment=3911036 http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185565-no-progress-toward-tt-extension-per-carucci;-agent-unhappy/page-15?do=findComment&comment=3910975 http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185707-love-2-of-cap-tyrod-like-10-tyrod-dont-like-15-tyrod/?do=findComment&comment=3908187 http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185565-no-progress-toward-tt-extension-per-carucci;-agent-unhappy/page-3?do=findComment&comment=3901577 http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185565-no-progress-toward-tt-extension-per-carucci;-agent-unhappy/page-2?do=findComment&comment=3901543 http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185565-no-progress-toward-tt-extension-per-carucci;-agent-unhappy/page-2?do=findComment&comment=3901521 Do. Your. Own. Homework. Why are you always searching for windmills? I'd rather chase waterfalls, but I'm probably just gonna stick to the rivers and streams that I'm used to. Edited April 25, 2016 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Similar, as in getting a pro bowl nod or similar to overall QB play? Last year the Bills fielded about the most QB friendly offense they have had in over a decade, IMHO. The Bills had a solid O-line on the left side, a decent receiving corps and they ran the ball to help set up the passing game. Plus, they ran the ball very well averaging 4.8 YPC and were the #1 rushing team in the league and had 19 rushing TD's. Still, the Bills were 31st in three down and out percentage. Conversely, they were 28th in the league in passing yardage and Taylor was ranked 23rd in yards passing. If Tyrod has a similar year to last year while not being able to carry the team with his arm I think the team moves on from him because he was very ineffective at times in some games and every time the team needed to throw more then run that was the case. Should he show some growth in being able to carry the game with his arm then he will indeed get that huge contract. That inability to carry games when the run game wasn't working is what caused the Bills to wait a year to pay him and to look for another QB. That 31st in 3rd down and out is why I hope the Bills spend an early round pick on a RT and in particular I kinda doubt they want to go forward paying Glenn 13.7 mill or even 11+ mill per. Then the RT situation in Buffalo is still rather Iffy. Should make for an interesting draft. The part you're missing is that a projection is needed now on what the FO foresees Tyrod doing this year in terms of progression. That decision should dictate whether a QB is taken in round 1 or 2 IMO. They can already reasonably assume he'll get 18-20 mil if he has a similar season or tagged - if he plays better statistically he'll get 20-22 mil. The decision on whether he's worth that should also be considered prior to determining if they take a QB. Once that decision is made and I think it already has - I believe we'll know based on the draft results. It's interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Please show me a link to where PTR, or anyone else for that matter, suggests that the Bills should sign Tyrod Taylor to an extension before the season starts. What ? OP wants to pay him by the billions. We've already waited too long and are doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 The part you're missing is that a projection is needed now on what the FO foresees Tyrod doing this year in terms of progression. That decision should dictate whether a QB is taken in round 1 or 2 IMO. They can already reasonably assume he'll get 18-20 mil if he has a similar season or tagged - if he plays better statistically he'll get 20-22 mil. The decision on whether he's worth that should also be considered prior to determining if they take a QB. Once that decision is made and I think it already has - I believe we'll know based on the draft results. It's interesting indeed. Good posting T T. I too think Bills know where Tyrod can take them. And he does not have to supersize it to be successful under Roman, just improve and execute in his second year and first year as recognized starter. Interesting Draft days Indeed. What ? OP wants to pay him by the billions. We've already waited too long and are doomed. and this is also true. have no hope and there will be no dreams destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 What ? OP wants to pay him by the billions. We've already waited too long and are doomed. Let me step in. I am in favor of locking up Taylor now if possible in a cap-friendly way. Flame away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Let me step in. I am in favor of locking up Taylor now if possible in a cap-friendly way. Flame away. No kidding. Wasn't getting to this statement your whole point when you started the thread? At least you didn't start this one with "Tyrod's feeling will be hurt if we don't pay him now!" My first thought upon reading the original post was "I wonder how long it'll take for Promo to get to his 'Pay Tyrod' conclusion?" Your premise that there'll be only one and only one quality QB in the draft is ridiculous by the way. Could be zero. Could be several. Could be one. Every draft is a snowflake. Every QB prospect has to be evaluated on their own merits. But, dude, please put this on the shelf. Come back and I-told-you-so us to death if the current tact blows up on the Bills and Taylor moves on and is a stud elsewhere. We'll remember your stance, honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 (edited) Let me step in. I am in favor of locking up Taylor now if possible in a cap-friendly way. Flame away. Alright well perhaps I stand corrected. I did not gather this from your original post. There is no such thing as locking Taylor up to a contract that would meet his market value (think Brock Osweiler's 4 years, $72 million + a whole lot more) in a "cap-friendly" way right now. Thanks to Terry Pegula owning the Bills, they are actually up against the cap for once. Everybody understands this. If he plays well next year, they'll make it work. The key point here is that the Bills hold all the leverage. They can always just franchise him. I kind of feel like the adamantly pro-Taylor people, the optimistic but wait-and-see types (like me and 95% of Bills fans- you know, the people that Ryan L Billz refers to as "fanboys") and the five guys who inexplicably hate him, all understand and agree on this. Edited April 25, 2016 by metzelaars_lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boater Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Why not? He's already pretty mad he's playing for peanuts. He could just demand a trade because he's so mad. You could DEMAND a trade. But that's not how contracts work. Reminds me of a movie quote "Everyone needs money, that's why they call it money." That short Italian guy.. what's his name? And from the press I've seen, TT isn't mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Let me step in. I am in favor of locking up Taylor now if possible in a cap-friendly way. Flame away. I agree with you a lot Promo.... I dont here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Good posting T T. I too think Bills know where Tyrod can take them. And he does not have to supersize it to be successful under Roman, just improve and execute in his second year and first year as recognized starter. Interesting Draft days Indeed. Thanks and you too. Interesting that you bring up Roman which I think is part of the evaluation process. I think the Bills have to make sure that it's not just Roman's system that's making Tyrod successful - and that he's actually developing into an NFL QB. I think the FO has to be conscious that Roman wants to be a head coach and you can't be left with a QB that can't transition to a new OC. Similar to what may have happened to Kaep. There's a lot to think about when determining whether to give out that top 15 QB money. My hunch is the same as yours - that the Bills and certainly Rex (however long he stays) are Tyrod believers and the contract thing is we're going to wait but we think he'll step up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Thanks and you too. Interesting that you bring up Roman which I think is part of the evaluation process. I think the Bills have to make sure that it's not just Roman's system that's making Tyrod successful - and that he's actually developing into an NFL QB. I think the FO has to be conscious that Roman wants to be a head coach and you can't be left with a QB that can't transition to a new OC. Similar to what may have happened to Kaep. There's a lot to think about when determining whether to give out that top 15 QB money. My hunch is the same as yours - that the Bills and certainly Rex (however long he stays) are Tyrod believers and the contract thing is we're going to wait but we think he'll step up. You have pointed out another factor to the equation that even I forget sometimes. Roman and his tenure with the Bills. Important feature for sure . little secret, if Rex Ryan's defense goes 8-8 again and the offense improves even slightly , guess who Pegula is talking to Whaley about. I suspect it will not come to that though. Always gotta have a plan B and C. On the other side of the coin , maybe Roman has reached his ceiling. haha ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blokestradamus Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I'd rather chase waterfalls, but I'm probably just gonna stick to the rivers and streams that I'm used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 (edited) Just because Buffalo has been risk averse taking QB's for the better part of 20 years doesn't mean it's right. Of course there's risk a player won't work out. EJ was a bust and everyone seems to understand that. OTOH, not taking a QB guarantees you don't have anyone. Tyron may be their guy or he could regress. Doesn't mean you don't take one because the player might not work out. There aren't many teams that have invested less the past 20 years in the game's most important position. It's time to change that. Innaresting take, and I agree in part. I looked up the drafting records of The League wrt the QB position going back to 1996. Over that time period 238 QBs were drafted1. The Bills drafted four QBs - nearly a League low2. However, the first QB drafted in that period was JP - yes, that JP in 2004. So, I thought I would use 2004 as the "turning point" time frame to focus on. Including the 2004 draft teams have drafted an average of 4.6 QBs. Taking that perspective, it seems The Bills are a little more mainstream these days. 5 teams have drafted fewer than 4 QBs in that time frame. 11 teams - including The Bills have drafted 4 QBs, 10 teams have drafted 5 QBs during that same period. While 4 teams have drafted 6 QBs and only the JESTS and Denver have broken the curve by drafting 8 in that 12 year period. These are the stats of the matter: Team QBs Drafted from 2004 to 2015 Jacksonville 2 Dallas 2 Seattle 3 New Orleans 3 Detroit 3 Sand Diego 4 Pittsburgh 4 Oakland 4 Miami 4 Kansas City 4 Indianapolis 4 Houston 4 Giants 4 Carolina 4 Buffalo 4 Atlanta 4 Washington 5 Tennessee 5 Tampa Bay 5 San Fran 5 Philadelphia 5 Pats* 5 Minnesota 5 Cincinatti 5 Chicago 5 Arizona 5 St Louis 6 Green Bay 6 Cleveland 6 Baltimore 6 Jets 8 Denver 8 1Edit: 238 is the correct number. 2Edit: Dallas actually only drafted 3 Qbs since 1996. I hope The Bills select a QB this year. Edited April 25, 2016 by Nanker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 you have low standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blokestradamus Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 you have low standards Who doesn't love a good TLC reference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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