Moneyball and the Browns

[dave mcbride]

Good story. This will be a fun one to watch. All of a sudden, the Browns have become one of the more interesting organizations in sports: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15159159/why-paul-depodesta-bringing-moneyball-browns

 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

I don't know how he's going to get the data to a level where it's going to help. So in the case of an incompletion how do you capture the factors that led to it? I understand it could be done, but you're talking about a ton of man hours by people who understand what they're looking at.

 

Edit: didn't see where they are going to use chips - but still, difficult to determine intent. Like the guys wasn't the most open, but he was open enough.

Edited April 11, 2016 by 4BillsintheBurgh

[dave mcbride]

I don't know how he's going to get the data to a level where it's going to help. So in the case of an incompletion how do you capture the factors that led to it? I understand it could be done, but you're talking about a ton of man hours by people who understand what they're looking at.

Dunno either, but DePodesta is freaking smart (smarter than all of us) and it'll be fun to see what he does. It might not succeed, but why not try it? Nothing else they've done has worked.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Dunno either, but DePodesta is freaking smart (smarter than all of us) and it'll be fun to see what he does. It might not succeed, but why not try it? Nothing else they've done has worked.

I'll laugh if it ends up like the Chip Kelly experiment in Philly, done in a couple years.

 

I think it has a chance to work if for no other reason the primary voice in the decision is not influenced by anyone else's opinion. But he's got to be able to draft, that will be the bottom line. Of course, the last few years the front office has set that bar on the floor so it shouldn't be hard to hurdle.

[NoSaint]

I don't know how he's going to get the data to a level where it's going to help. So in the case of an incompletion how do you capture the factors that led to it? I understand it could be done, but you're talking about a ton of man hours by people who understand what they're looking at.

 

Edit: didn't see where they are going to use chips - but still, difficult to determine intent. Like the guys wasn't the most open, but he was open enough.

In a billion dollar industry spending on a large quality control department doesn't seem crazy. Especially as cheap as they come in the NFL.

[YoloinOhio]

Did Moneyball lead them to fire 6 scouts 3 weeks before the draft? Weird timing.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/10/other-teams-already-are-picking-brains-of-fired-browns-scouts/

Edited April 11, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[4BillsintheBurgh]

In a billion dollar industry spending on a large quality control department doesn't seem crazy. Especially as cheap as they come in the NFL.

I would add: for some owners. Some owners don't pay for top notch coaching staffs, let alone money for additional or not proven back office folks.

[BarleyNY]

Did Moneyball lead them to fire 6 scouts 3 weeks before the draft? Weird timing.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/10/other-teams-already-are-picking-brains-of-fired-browns-scouts/

The Browns had a bloated scouting department. With them not retaining those six scouts their scouting staff is now in line with what most teams have. The six scouts were just told they would not be signed to new contracts after the draft so they could get a jump looking for new jobs now.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Did Moneyball lead them to fire 6 scouts 3 weeks before the draft? Weird timing.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/10/other-teams-already-are-picking-brains-of-fired-browns-scouts/

 

Lol... Sure everyone does it- but they are always in the front of the line when it comes to shady tactics!!

 

"two years ago, former Browns G.M. Mike Lombardi was spotted at the Scouting Combine with documents containing prominent Browns logos while working with the Patriots."

[YoloinOhio]

The Browns had a bloated scouting department. With them not retaining those six scouts their scouting staff is now in line with what most teams have. The six scouts were just told they would not be signed to new contracts after the draft so they could get a jump looking for new jobs now.

Scouts who aren't being retained are usually let go the week after the draft when a new regime comes in. Very unorthodox to do it 3 weeks before the draft. Edited April 11, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I don't know how he's going to get the data to a level where it's going to help. So in the case of an incompletion how do you capture the factors that led to it? I understand it could be done, but you're talking about a ton of man hours by people who understand what they're looking at.

 

Edit: didn't see where they are going to use chips - but still, difficult to determine intent. Like the guys wasn't the most open, but he was open enough.

That's the beauty of data analysts. They don't go in assuming anything.

 

Step one is to define what success and failure are and how to measure it, then start combing over/generating collecting data and analyzing it to find a model that is more predictive than any other.

[Webster Guy]

This sounds like something Russ Brandon would drum up.

 

Football is too much of a team sport for most positions to be evaluated by data, unlike baseball which is far more individualized, especially in terms of batting, on base percentage etc.

 

What the Browns are doing reminds of what companies have to go through when some VP decides to hire consultants to come in. Everything gets shaken up, huge process improvements are promised, and in the end everything ends up back the way it was being done in the first place.

 

The Browns have an awful drafting history since I can remember, so I guess there's nothing to lose.....

[4BillsintheBurgh]

That's the beauty of data analysts. They don't go in assuming anything.

 

Step one is to define what success and failure are and how to measure it, then start combing over/generating collecting data and analyzing it to find a model that is more predictive than any other.

That's my point about a pass, a completion is good and incompletion is bad. But there are many datapoints that effect the result and I don't understand how you collect and assess them to come up with a value added result beyond what could be determined by a person. Not saying it can't be done, just seems like a larger set of variables than baseball because of the team nature of the sport including a playbook etc.

 

Also for example, a few years ago Kavika (sp?) Mitchell was called out on twitter for not making a play in the pass defense. It certainly looked like it could have been his fault but according to him it was not his responsibility. How do you assess a player when you don't know the responsibilities and how well they were followed?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

This sounds like something Russ Brandon would drum up.

 

Football is too much of a team sport for most positions to be evaluated by data, unlike baseball which is far more individualized, especially in terms of batting, on base percentage etc.

 

What the Browns are doing reminds of what companies have to go through when some VP decides to hire consultants to come in. Everything gets shaken up, huge process improvements are promised, and in the end everything ends up back the way it was being done in the first place.

 

The Browns have an awful drafting history since I can remember, so I guess there's nothing to lose.....

 

Baseball has so much data too. You have multiple groups calculating their version of Wins Above Replacement. You have stats like BABIP/swinging strikes that try to figure out trends, and where a player "should" be based on being exceedingly lucky/unlucky.

Then you have the matchup of - how does this pitcher do in this park? this particular batter? day game vs. night game?, short rest? long rest?

 

Football will be like - brady did so and so against the bills. But who was doing what on what play? It's not like gilmore went 0-4 with 3 strikeouts...

[DC Tom]

Did Moneyball lead them to fire 6 scouts 3 weeks before the draft? Weird timing.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/10/other-teams-already-are-picking-brains-of-fired-browns-scouts/

 

That was Monopoly Moneyball.

[Captain Hindsight]

 

Baseball has so much data too. You have multiple groups calculating their version of Wins Above Replacement. You have stats like BABIP/swinging strikes that try to figure out trends, and where a player "should" be based on being exceedingly lucky/unlucky.

Then you have the matchup of - how does this pitcher do in this park? this particular batter? day game vs. night game?, short rest? long rest?

 

Football will be like - brady did so and so against the bills. But who was doing what on what play? It's not like gilmore went 0-4 with 3 strikeouts...

I suppose you could break it down by type of defense played and stuff like that

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I suppose you could break it down by type of defense played and stuff like that

 

But how is that different than what they are doing now?

[dpberr]

Business intelligence is why the Patriots have been as successful as they have been for nearly 20 years.

 

I am very interested in what the Browns are doing. There are more layers to this than what's reported in the press of course.

 

The NBA Spurs hired Kirk Goldsberry of Grantland fame for their analytical unit.

 

One of the reasons the Pittsburgh Pirates got out of their hole was analytics. They embraced the defensive shift long before other teams began doing it. Dan Fox, one of their data guys, studied how often balls were hit to certain locations on the field.

[Captain Hindsight]

 

But how is that different than what they are doing now?

Oh I'm sure there is far more to it. I hope it works for the Browns. Im skeptical, but if it works it changes everything

[hondo in seattle]

Dunno either, but DePodesta is freaking smart (smarter than all of us) and it'll be fun to see what he does. It might not succeed, but why not try it? Nothing else they've done has worked.

 

I agree with all this.

 

DePodesta is smart - smart enough to understand football is a different beast than baseball.

 

Innovation often comes with desperation. The Browns have never played in a Super Bowl and have earned a miserable 87-185 record since reestablishing the franchise in 1999. Why wouldn't the Browns try something new?

 

It'll be an interesting experiment.

But this is scary...

 

HASLAM'S NEW COMMITMENT to Money(foot)-ball model evident in restructuring of Browns front office into Harvard West. DePodesta reports only to owner. Final say on 53-man roster now belongs to Sashi Brown, 39, fellow Harvard grad and Browns' former general counsel who worked on salary cap and player contracts. Brown, in turn, hired Harvard grad and former Colts pro scouting coordinator Andrew Berry, 28, to be Cleveland's VP of player personnel. Browns' top analytics mind, Ken Kovash, promoted to director of football research and player personnel. Fourth Harvard grad, Kevin Meers, is now team's head research analyst. In total, three of top four decision makers have no NFL scouting or roster-building experience. Cleveland brain trust now unlike anything else in football, which is exactly the point.

Edited April 11, 2016 by hondo in seattle