Tyler Dunne Asks: Was the Watkins Trade Worth It?

[Captain Hindsight]

 

Pretty sure he said that when he was sitting on the sidelines nursing an injury which is where the criticism came from.

No it was just before the Bengals game. Then he got hurt in that game and people decided it was a good time to try to run him out of town

[3rdand12]

I would like to think the passing game just grows on Roman.

As TT and Watkins have now gotten some trust developed.

This could become the beginning of a beautiful relationship !

And i would also be surprised Bills if were unable to retain him for his second contract.

They got him for the long haul.

[Nihilarian]

agreed. Sammy is kind of wasted in a Rex Ryan ground pound / Greg Roman offense, but I'm glad we have him. Just imagine what a highlight reel he would already be if he was with Bruce Arians in Az. for example. . he won't resign with the Bills unless something dramatic happens at the QB position and Roman's approach evolves further... conservative offense plus great defense can win for sure, I just don't think you need a sammy watkins to do that strategy , which is what Rex and Roman are pushing --- I predict Sammy is one contract and done with the Bills , hard to imagine it playing out any other way. the kid is a generational talent at WR with a ground/pound team with average QB play in a pass favoring league full of pass oriented teams. I don't reasonably see him staying... he will get a $15m/yr from some passing team and take it

 

i almost don't want him to stay in hopes he gets with a pass oriented offense so I can really see his full potential play out... just sayin'... so many great talents have been wasted in schemes that don't let them play

I agree. This is probably exactly why Sammy spoke up last year. Players with that skill level have a burning desire to be great and make the hall, get a ring and he sure wouldn't be doing either as a decoy for Woods / Hogan. Watkins was basically wasted under Marrone most of the time and even with TT learning as he goes also isn't the best place to put up great numbers.

 

It would be very interesting to see how Watkins would perform in a high powered offense with another decent top WR on the other side to help open things up. The 2015 Bills had the 28th passing offense last year and I can see him as a top five WR in a top passing offense. Sadly, under Ryan / Roman, the Bills offense simply isn't built that way.

 

As for resigning with Buffalo in two years, I have to wonder if Marcell Dareus's contract would have been up this offseason if he would have resigned with Buffalo or looked to be a fit in a 4-3 somewhere else. The man was vocal about how he disliked Ryan's scheme from training camp last season and I'll wager he probably isn't looking forward to playing in Ryan's 3-4 as a gap control NT.

 

 

On another note, should Ryan pull off a miracle with his defense and the Bills make the playoffs 2016 then everyone should be happy...even me!

[C.Biscuit97]

The Browns said it wasn't worth it.

 

If the Browns weren't the Browns, this could have be a franchise changing trade for them. Unfortunately for Cleveland, they blew 2 1st rounders.

 

It's a tough call. Watkins is a flat out stud. He has the potential to be one of the best Wrs in the league. At the same time, how many great teams are built around Wrs? I think you only pay the price is for a franchise qb.

 

Gun to my head, I like the known of Watkins' talent over the unknown of a draft pick. But it may have been too much for a player who plays a dependent position.

[BaaadThingsMan]

Nice write up. Those old WRs are still divas.

[Nihilarian]

If the Browns weren't the Browns, this could have be a franchise changing trade for them. Unfortunately for Cleveland, they blew 2 1st rounders.

 

It's a tough call. Watkins is a flat out stud. He has the potential to be one of the best Wrs in the league. At the same time, how many great teams are built around Wrs? I think you only pay the price is for a franchise qb.

 

Gun to my head, I like the known of Watkins' talent over the unknown of a draft pick. But it may have been too much for a player who plays a dependent position.

The Browns continue to be one of the most dysfunctional NFL teams in the league and the epitome of how to build a continuous loser. I have no idea how their scouting dept works but If I'm the new owner I'd hire more then just a new GM.

 

Since 2000, the Browns have had 12 different head coaches with a minimum of 12 starting QB's. In the 90's the Browns had Bill Belichick as HC and Butch Davis and both made the playoffs. They went 10-6 under Crennel in 2007 so it must why all head coaches are not good enough and those men are the real reason the team keeps drafting bums at QB, right?

 

In 2000 they drafted QB Spergon Wynn in the 6th -2004 QB Luke McCown in the 4th- 2005 QB Charlie Frye in the 3rd- 2007 QB Brady Quinn with their second 1st pick- 2010 QB Colt McCoy in the 3rd- 2012 QB Brandon Weedon with their second 1st pick after they took RB Trent Richardson with the first 1st. 2014 Johnny Manziel with their second first, and CB Justin Gilbert with their first 1st.

 

Perhaps this year they might finally be smart enough to use that first pick on a QB in either Wentz or Goff.

 

Anyway, after firing GM Ray Farmer and hiring Hue Jackson as HC the Browns are looking at a "Moneyball" type strategy. http://www.clevelandsportszone.com/2016-state-of-the-cleveland-browns-front-office-and-coaching-staff/

 

I have my doubts.

[26CornerBlitz]

I agree. This is probably exactly why Sammy spoke up last year. Players with that skill level have a burning desire to be great and make the hall, get a ring and he sure wouldn't be doing either as a decoy for Woods / Hogan. Watkins was basically wasted under Marrone most of the time and even with TT learning as he goes also isn't the best place to put up great numbers.

 

It would be very interesting to see how Watkins would perform in a high powered offense with another decent top WR on the other side to help open things up. The 2015 Bills had the 28th passing offense last year and I can see him as a top five WR in a top passing offense. Sadly, under Ryan / Roman, the Bills offense simply isn't built that way.

 

As for resigning with Buffalo in two years, I have to wonder if Marcell Dareus's contract would have been up this offseason if he would have resigned with Buffalo or looked to be a fit in a 4-3 somewhere else. The man was vocal about how he disliked Ryan's scheme from training camp last season and I'll wager he probably isn't looking forward to playing in Ryan's 3-4 as a gap control NT.

 

 

On another note, should Ryan pull off a miracle with his defense and the Bills make the playoffs 2016 then everyone should be happy...even me!

 

How would it be a miracle given his track record?

[Bill from NYC]

I still think it's a closer question than many of you. But regardless, they drafted Sammy for a coach who ran a simple "two yards and a cloud of dust, then punt" offense, who didn't want him. And then they hired an offensive coordinator who doesn't feature his receivers. You can't look at the pick/trade in a vacuum. What's the long-term strategy? I'm still not sure...

Agreed.

 

And I have trouble excusing Whaley for the fact that he would NOT have drafted Beckham.

 

Whaley tends to over spend for contracts (Clay, McCoy, and even Marcel if he is to be used as a 350 pound corner) and over pay for trades (a 4th for Bryce Brown). He certainly made a few good draft selections (Darby and Karlos come to mind), but again, he has a propensity toward spending which has left us with a possible problem in paying Tyrod.

 

Jmo.

 

How would it be a miracle given his track record?

Because last season the defense was a disgrace of epic proportion. The talented defense was down more than 60% in sacks. How much worse could it have been?

Edited March 29, 2016 by Bill from NYC

[26CornerBlitz]

Agreed.

 

And I have trouble excusing Whaley for the fact that he would NOT have drafted Beckham.

 

Whaley tends to over spend for contracts (Clay, McCoy, and even Marcel if he is to be used as a 350 pound corner) and over pay for trades (a 4th for Bryce Brown). He certainly made a few good draft selections (Darby and Karlos come to mind), but again, he has a propensity toward spending which has left us with a possible problem in paying Tyrod.

 

Jmo.

Because last season th defense was a disgrace of epic proportion. The talented defense was down more than 60% in sacks. How much worse could it have been?

 

There is an exaggeration of epic proportions. It could have been 32nd in total defense.

Edited March 29, 2016 by 26CornerBlitz

[Kirby Jackson]

Agreed.

 

And I have trouble excusing Whaley for the fact that he would NOT have drafted Beckham.

 

Whaley tends to over spend for contracts (Clay, McCoy, and even Marcel if he is to be used as a 350 pound corner) and over pay for trades (a 4th for Bryce Brown). He certainly made a few good draft selections (Darby and Karlos come to mind), but again, he has a propensity toward spending which has left us with a possible problem in paying Tyrod.

 

Jmo.

Because last season th defense was a disgrace of epic proportion. The talented defense was down more than 60% in sacks. How much worse could it have been?

That really isn't the case. The Bills are about $45M under the cap next year (or something like that). They can pay Tyrod whatever they want without releasing a guy.

[SouthernMan]

The only way it's worth it if there is a way to prove the trade of picks and choice of Sammy Watkins translates into more wins, playoffs, championships. There's no real way to tell.

 

The question for me is, could we have picked another WR or equal impact player at # 9, and had a second impact player in 2015 at #19?

 

What we now possess is a highly talented WR who has sustained injuries in 2 consecutive seasons that kept him off the field and who doesn't have a Tom Brady caliber QB throwing to him. Having a middle of the road QB with limited experience diminishes the value and impact that a star WR gives to the team. Would the Bills have gained more by selecting a player with potential to be a dominating RT or LB? I don't know.

 

It's possible the Bills could have had a WR like Beckham, drafted a top edge rusher, safety, or LB in 2015, leaving the 2016 1st rounder available for a different need position - possibly #2 receiver or RT.

 

It's impossible to measure at this point. If the Bills never get to double digit wins, continue to miss the playoffs, and Watkins becomes a FA in 3 years, it could be viewed as a wasted move.

 

The simplest way to guage it is asking:

Is Watkins + no 2015 1st Rd pick more likely to get the Bills into contention than

(e.g.) Beckham + 2015 1st Rd.

 

If Watkins stays healthy and is complimented by other offensive players who can make plays, it will turn out to be a good trade. If he's doubled up and nobody else is getting them into the end zone, it was a waste.

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

The only way it's worth it if there is a way to prove the trade of picks and choice of Sammy Watkins translates into more wins, playoffs, championships. There's no real way to tell.

 

The question for me is, could we have picked another WR or equal impact player at # 9, and had a second impact player in 2015 at #19?

 

What we now possess is a highly talented WR who has sustained injuries in 2 consecutive seasons that kept him off the field and who doesn't have a Tom Brady caliber QB throwing to him. Having a middle of the road QB with limited experience diminishes the value and impact that a star WR gives to the team. Would the Bills have gained more by selecting a player with potential to be a dominating RT or LB? I don't know.

 

It's possible the Bills could have had a WR like Beckham, drafted a top edge rusher, safety, or LB in 2015, leaving the 2016 1st rounder available for a different need position - possibly #2 receiver or RT.

 

It's impossible to measure at this point. If the Bills never get to double digit wins, continue to miss the playoffs, and Watkins becomes a FA in 3 years, it could be viewed as a wasted move.

 

The simplest way to guage it is asking:

Is Watkins + no 2015 1st Rd pick more likely to get the Bills into contention than

(e.g.) Beckham + 2015 1st Rd.

 

If Watkins stays healthy and is complimented by other offensive players who can make plays, it will turn out to be a good trade. If he's doubled up and nobody else is getting them into the end zone, it was a waste.

 

 

 

Good thoughts! It was a gamble that Whaley and the Bills were willing to take to acquire a player they saw as the best in that draft class. I can't fault them for that line of reasoning. Now it's up to the coaching staff to maximize his talent within the structure of the offense to help the team win games.

[Nihilarian]

The only way it's worth it if there is a way to prove the trade of picks and choice of Sammy Watkins translates into more wins, playoffs, championships. There's no real way to tell.

 

The question for me is, could we have picked another WR or equal impact player at # 9, and had a second impact player in 2015 at #19?

 

What we now possess is a highly talented WR who has sustained injuries in 2 consecutive seasons that kept him off the field and who doesn't have a Tom Brady caliber QB throwing to him. Having a middle of the road QB with limited experience diminishes the value and impact that a star WR gives to the team. Would the Bills have gained more by selecting a player with potential to be a dominating RT or LB? I don't know.

 

It's possible the Bills could have had a WR like Beckham, drafted a top edge rusher, safety, or LB in 2015, leaving the 2016 1st rounder available for a different need position - possibly #2 receiver or RT.

 

It's impossible to measure at this point. If the Bills never get to double digit wins, continue to miss the playoffs, and Watkins becomes a FA in 3 years, it could be viewed as a wasted move.

 

The simplest way to guage it is asking:

Is Watkins + no 2015 1st Rd pick more likely to get the Bills into contention than

(e.g.) Beckham + 2015 1st Rd.

 

If Watkins stays healthy and is complimented by other offensive players who can make plays, it will turn out to be a good trade. If he's doubled up and nobody else is getting them into the end zone, it was a waste.

 

 

Really good, well thought out post. Although, I have other thoughts on this.

 

I think there is more to it when a team makes a jump in spending three draft picks on a WR (two firsts) when they didn't already have an established franchise QB to throw to him!

 

That 2014 team had holes all over the roster in different areas. Specifically, that team lacked other receivers to keep opposing teams from doubling up on that one star. Like in only having one other decent WR, no real top TE. Then had serious holes in the offensive line at LG, RG, RT and questions at linebacker. This last area left me asking what QB is going to be standing up long enough to throw to that super star WR. The 2014 Buffalo Bills fielded the very worst offensive line for most of that season and only moved to 30th near the end.

 

So, when I saw the team use three draft picks and two firsts on a WR when the team has all those other needs, I can't help but ask where is the critical thinking in building a "complete" playoff team? That might have been a great move to sell tickets, but not to fill out the roster properly IMO. Then, not having that 2015 first round pick left another hole on the team unfilled.

 

The current 2016 roster still has many questions at different positions and still looks to have several holes. Not to mention that the most important position on the team is still under question.

[FireChan]

Really good, well thought out post. Although, I have other thoughts on this.

 

I think there is more to it when a team makes a jump in spending three draft picks on a WR (two firsts) when they didn't already have an established franchise QB to throw to him!

 

That 2014 team had holes all over the roster in different areas. Specifically, that team lacked other receivers to keep opposing teams from doubling up on that one star. Like in only having one other decent WR, no real top TE. Then had serious holes in the offensive line at LG, RG, RT and questions at linebacker. This last area left me asking what QB is going to be standing up long enough to throw to that super star WR. The 2014 Buffalo Bills fielded the very worst offensive line for most of that season and only moved to 30th near the end.

 

So, when I saw the team use three draft picks and two firsts on a WR when the team has all those other needs, I can't help but ask where is the critical thinking in building a "complete" playoff team? That might have been a great move to sell tickets, but not to fill out the roster properly IMO. Then, not having that 2015 first round pick left another hole on the team unfilled.

 

The current 2016 roster still has many questions at different positions and still looks to have several holes. Not to mention that the most important position on the team is still under question.

Whaley took a chance on EJ taking another step and he gave him a weapon to do it with. Remember that the offensive cupboard was pretty bare going into 2013. We drafted 3 WR's in each of the first 3 rounds in 2 years. There really wasn't any other way to address the WR position through the draft more than we did.

 

I'm not a big Whaley cheerleader, and I do think he gets ahead of himself. That said, being a gambler has paid off sometimes in the NFL. In Sammy's case, it probably did. For better or worse.

[Nihilarian]

While I understand the idea of taking a gamble on a once in a decade type player and the GM wanted to reach for a player with Watkins talent. Outside of Bills fans, most of the NFL world thinks that Beckham is the best WR in that years draft and he was the #5 WR in yards last year. Allen Robinson was #6, Mike Evans was #11, Jarvis Landry was #13, Brandin Cooks was #14 and Watkins came in at #22.

 

I just happen to think that the 2014 NFL draft was probably the best Wide Receiver draft in the entire history of the NFL. Just look at the WR talent in that draft. Mike Evans- Sammy Watkins- Odell Beckham Jr. Brandon Cooks, Allen Robenson, Jarvis Landry, John Brown, Kelvin Benjamin and with like another six players who could end up being very good.

 

Like Bill from NYC stated that It's like Whaley gets a pass for not thinking of drafting Odell Beckham Jr rather than TE Eric Ebron. Why didn't this scouting staff / GM recognize all that WR talent? They could have stood pat and taken Beckham, and still gotten Robinson or Landry in the second round.

 

Anyway, I wasn't a fan of the trade then and I'm still not a fan when the team still doesn't know if they have that franchise QB to throw to him. That QB position is the only position on the team I think is worth trading away three draft picks for and especially when the team has other areas of need.

 

Think of those areas of need, like that godawful 2014 O-line with Pears at RG

 

It's a tough call. Watkins is a flat out stud. He has the potential to be one of the best Wrs in the league. At the same time, how many great teams are built around Wrs? I think you only pay the price is for a franchise qb.

Gun to my head, I like the known of Watkins' talent over the unknown of a draft pick. But it may have been too much for a player who plays a dependent position.

What he said.

Edited March 30, 2016 by Nihilarian

[Kirby Jackson]

While I understand the idea of taking a gamble on a once in a decade type player and the GM wanted to reach for a player with Watkins talent. Outside of Bills fans, most of the NFL world thinks that Beckham is the best WR in that years draft and he was the #5 WR in yards last year. Allen Robinson was #6, Mike Evans was #11, Jarvis Landry was #13, Brandin Cooks was #14 and Watkins came in at #22.

 

I just happen to think that the 2014 NFL draft was probably the best Wide Receiver draft in the entire history of the NFL. Just look at the WR talent in that draft. Mike Evans- Sammy Watkins- Odell Beckham Jr. Brandon Cooks, Allen Robenson, Jarvis Landry, John Brown, Kelvin Benjamin and with like another six players who could end up being very good.

 

 

While all of those guys are pretty good I would bet (with the possible exception of Beckham) the GMs of those teams would trade any of those guys straight up for Watkins. That was a great WR draft. When all is said and done though I think that the guy the Bills got will be one of the 2 best. They went out and got an elite player with little downside. In addition to his massive upside he had little downside. There was no risk with Watkins.

[Coach Tuesday]

While all of those guys are pretty good I would bet (with the possible exception of Beckham) the GMs of those teams would trade any of those guys straight up for Watkins. That was a great WR draft. When all is said and done though I think that the guy the Bills got will be one of the 2 best. They went out and got an elite player with little downside. In addition to his massive upside he had little downside. There was no risk with Watkins.

 

Are they going to pay him when his rookie contract is up?

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Are they going to pay him when his rookie contract is up?

Absolutely (and it won't be cheap). They knew that coming in. I have my thoughts in one of the cap threads but the good news is the Bills will have their best players locked up long term (except Watkins) by next off-season. It's not like they have money tied up in Albert Haynesworth.

[JohnC]

While all of those guys are pretty good I would bet (with the possible exception of Beckham) the GMs of those teams would trade any of those guys straight up for Watkins. That was a great WR draft. When all is said and done though I think that the guy the Bills got will be one of the 2 best. They went out and got an elite player with little downside. In addition to his massive upside he had little downside. There was no risk with Watkins.

Whaley made a deal for a player who he thought was going to be an elite player. In my view that is what he is. Has his talents been maximized? No. But that is mostly due to the qb play. I don't understand the criticism Whaley is drawing for a player who turns out to be a top end talent.

 

There are opportunities to fill in holes through the draft and free agency. But there are few opportunities to get elite players unless you are at the top of the draft. Watkins has demonstrated that he was well worth the cost. The argument that Becham was also available has some merit but I am not bothered by not taking that option because the player that Whaley targeted as special turned out to be the caliber of player he envisioned.

 

I get tired of the argument that we gave up two first round picks for Watkins. That is not accurate characterization of that transaction. We gave up one first round pick for him. We moved up the draft in his draft year and we gave up a first in the next year. As it turned out our second round selection was worthy of a first round value. So the deal was on balance very fair and reasonable.

[Kirby Jackson]

Whaley made a deal for a player who he thought was going to be an elite player. In my view that is what he is. Has his talents been maximized? No. But that is mostly due to the qb play. I don't understand the criticism Whaley is drawing for a player who turns out to be a top end talent.

 

There are opportunities to fill in holes through the draft and free agency. But there are few opportunities to get elite players unless you are at the top of the draft. Watkins has demonstrated that he was well worth the cost. The argument that Becham was also available has some merit but I am not bothered by not taking that option because the player that Whaley targeted as special turned out to be the caliber of player he envisioned.

 

I get tired of the argument that we gave up two first round picks for Watkins. That is not accurate characterization of that transaction. We gave up one first round pick for him. We moved up the draft in his draft year and we gave up a first in the next year. As it turned out our second round selection was worthy of a first round value. So the deal was on balance very fair and reasonable.

Well said, John and pretty much my exact feeling. The difference between Watkins and Beckham coming out was a matter of production. There was some risk with OBJ. He has turned into a fantastic player but there was some risk. Worst case scenario with Watkins was a low end #1. The team had a glaring hole and got a star. I'm fine with it.