OldTimer1960 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 On the other hand, maybe the lesson is not to waste a top 5 pick on an offensive lineman. Five of the "bottom 11" are O-lineman. Maybe it's just a difficult position to project. I remember that it used to be a pretty safe pick taking an OL early. I think some of the college spread offenses and the NFL's rule changes to favor more passing have made it harder to project OL from college to pros. I also think that the need to pass block more in the pros pits more stress on OL than in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 This is why trading down for MORE picks is a good strategy. The draft is a lottery in a lot ways. Getting more balls in the hopper is always worth it. See New England's strategy for the last 15 years. Always stockpiling later picks. Some miss, some don't. But they have more picks so get more hits. I'm not sure that using the Patriots as evidence that this is a great strategy allow us to conclude anything. Through their recent run of dominance it has always been "Tom Brady and his supporting cast". It is hard to think that the supporting cast would have had anywhere the same level of success without Brady. Sure, Gronkowski would be a star on any team, but do you think that Wes Welker or Julian Edleman would have had the same careers without Brady? Trading back and acquiring extra picks can be a good strategy, but it is not as absolute as some are making it out. Sometimes there are some real stars at the top of a draft and a considerable drop off in talent after that - in those cases it might be wise to stay put and take one of the elite talents. Of course, if it is such a good idea to trade back, then how would you ever find a partner gullible enough to trade with you? One more point on NE, at the peak of their dynasty they were good at finding teams that would trade next year's n-1 round pick for NEs pick at the end of round N this year. They did make a lot of hay trading away picks at the end of a given round in the current year for a pick one round earlier next year - sometimes the next year pick ended up being almost 2 full rounds better (eg trade this year's late 2nd for a taem's 2017 1st and then that team does poorly and NE ended up wit a mid first). It infuriated me that NE seemed to find some willing to do that and that the Pats were in a position of enough strength to be able to afford to go without some picks this year in return for better picks in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyK Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 This whole trade down or back thing is not a good plan as it seems..these misses on o-line are not misses because they are starters who start every game and do fine, if they were 2nd round picks or if their teams did well in the playoffs they would be steals. Also the hits on early picks are all-Pro material!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 I'm not sure that using the Patriots as evidence that this is a great strategy allow us to conclude anything. Through their recent run of dominance it has always been "Tom Brady and his supporting cast". It is hard to think that the supporting cast would have had anywhere the same level of success without Brady. Sure, Gronkowski would be a star on any team, but do you think that Wes Welker or Julian Edleman would have had the same careers without Brady? Trading back and acquiring extra picks can be a good strategy, but it is not as absolute as some are making it out. Sometimes there are some real stars at the top of a draft and a considerable drop off in talent after that - in those cases it might be wise to stay put and take one of the elite talents. Of course, if it is such a good idea to trade back, then how would you ever find a partner gullible enough to trade with you? One more point on NE, at the peak of their dynasty they were good at finding teams that would trade next year's n-1 round pick for NEs pick at the end of round N this year. They did make a lot of hay trading away picks at the end of a given round in the current year for a pick one round earlier next year - sometimes the next year pick ended up being almost 2 full rounds better (eg trade this year's late 2nd for a taem's 2017 1st and then that team does poorly and NE ended up wit a mid first). It infuriated me that NE seemed to find some willing to do that and that the Pats were in a position of enough strength to be able to afford to go without some picks this year in return for better picks in the future How did the Patriots find soo many "gullible" trade buddies i wonder? This whole trade down or back thing is not a good plan as it seems..these misses on o-line are not misses because they are starters who start every game and do fine, if they were 2nd round picks or if their teams did well in the playoffs they would be steals. Also the hits on early picks are all-Pro material!!! I don't think anyone can argue that if you are picking in the Top 5 you are going to reap the reward. like i said, once you have your key positions filled with some top shelf players, Team gets more freedom in the draft. Also having more picks allows you to move up in later rounds , possibly , to get the particular guy you like. Not TJ Graham though !! Like a DT or a kicker, a developmental player maybe ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 We should offer to take some of the top five teams' picks off their hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 We should offer to take some of the top five teams' picks off their hands. It is the decent thing to do. The stress they must be under is probably horrific. Unlimited Pizza Logs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 For some reason I keep thinking about this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 As much as us keyboard GM's look at drafting as something systematic it really is a crap shoot. Granted some teams know what types of players they are looking for and they have better success in finding players that can contribute to their teams, but even with the most successful drafting teams there is still a high failure rate. Scouting involves a lot of guesswork and speculation which leads to a lot of luck being involved. I think since 2011 the Bills drafting has been pretty solid. But they need more than a solid draft this year as they need at the very least 2 starters and a couple of contributors from this draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Teams that draft well have outstanding scouting personnel and their GMs are smart enough to listen to them. IMO, that's where the draft is won or lost. I bet that if you find out who was the scout responsible for pushing a guy like Tom Brady to management, he or she probably has quite a few other players that turned out to be a hit rather than miss. I think the Bills have assembled a strong scouting staff - perhaps one of the better ones in the NFL today. It's why I'm confident that whoever they pick at 19 will be successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 It is the decent thing to do. The stress they must be under is probably horrific. Unlimited Pizza Logs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Bill Polian has talked a lot on Sirius about how there are generally only 15 or so truly first round rated picks in a draft, and then a whole bunch of guys as second rounders. If you're picking where the Patriots have picked, trading back is a sound strategy because your board is likely bunched up and there's a team looking to hop back into the first to get their guy before the day ends and other teams reevaluate their draft boards. However, if you are constantly drafting in the top 15 and have an opportunity at one of those top tier talents, trading back isn't a great strategy. Chances are you need those impact players and you're passing them up on your draft board in order to pick up more quantity but at significant less quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 If you're consistently drafting top 15, then you aren't hitting on those picks, so you might as well trade back and work the slim odds haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Teams that draft well have outstanding scouting personnel and their GMs are smart enough to listen to them. IMO, that's where the draft is won or lost. I bet that if you find out who was the scout responsible for pushing a guy like Tom Brady to management, he or she probably has quite a few other players that turned out to be a hit rather than miss. I think the Bills have assembled a strong scouting staff - perhaps one of the better ones in the NFL today. It's why I'm confident that whoever they pick at 19 will be successful. I think your point is true, BUT they also have STABILITY in the coaching ranks. No scouting department/GM can keep the cupboard full when the types of players that the (new) coaches want is different than 1-2-3 years ago. It takes several years to turn-over a roster and consistency in what the coaching staff is looking for in their "scheme" is critical. Absent consistency in coaching, the GM and scouts are left replacing players that fit the previous scheme ad infinitum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Bill Polian has talked a lot on Sirius about how there are generally only 15 or so truly first round rated picks in a draft, and then a whole bunch of guys as second rounders. I am only in my 3rd year of trying to grade players but that is definitely what I have found. I have 24 guys graded as genuine first rounders this year. 9 on offense, 15 on defense and one of those is Jaylon Smith who is likely to fall a long way due to the injury prognosis. I have a lot of players bunched up at the top of the second and that is where it comes down I think to teams looking at needs when balancing players against each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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