cage Posted March 24, 2016 Posted March 24, 2016 NFL.com has an interesting article ranking the top 5 picks of the draft since 2012. To demonstrate how difficult this is, there's only a 50% hit rate...on TOP 5 picks.. amazing. Clearly not very good. And we all know that if any of these players were passed over in the top 5, they would have been picked in the #6-10 slots and the team grabbing them there would have been graded an "A++" having scored the "steal of the draft" at the time...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 24, 2016 Posted March 24, 2016 NFL.com has an interesting article ranking the top 5 picks of the draft since 2012. To demonstrate how difficult this is, there's only a 50% hit rate...on TOP 5 picks.. amazing. Clearly not very good. And we all know that if any of these players were passed over in the top 5, they would have been picked in the #6-10 slots and the team grabbing them there would have been graded an "A++" having scored the "steal of the draft" at the time... This is an important perspective. Many here think it is only the Bills who miss on first round picks - pointing to EJ Manuel as some kind of egregious error that no other team would have made. The hit rate drops quickly after the first round,too. IIRC, there is only about a 25% chance of getting a good starter by round 3.
BuffaloBill Posted March 24, 2016 Posted March 24, 2016 Sammy should improve again this year give time with TT. Big ifs here but he might be unbelievable if Harvin, is signed, and with Woods both reach their potential.
machine gun kelly Posted March 24, 2016 Posted March 24, 2016 This is another example to put into perspective a GM's draft and look at their overall body of work.
cage Posted March 24, 2016 Author Posted March 24, 2016 This is an important perspective. Many here think it is only the Bills who miss on first round picks - pointing to EJ Manuel as some kind of egregious error that no other team would have made. The hit rate drops quickly after the first round,too. IIRC, there is only about a 25% chance of getting a good starter by round 3. For every first or second round bust, there's another team that would have happily picked that player within the next 10 or so picks. Very few of these guys wouldn't have been picked until 3-4 rounds later...if Dion Jordan, an Aaron Maybin level bust, wasn't picked 3rd overall, there's no way he would have lasted to 16 (where EJ was picked) or maybe even to 11 (where Maybin was picked)...and he would have been just as big a bust.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted March 24, 2016 Posted March 24, 2016 That's why you pretty much should always trade down and strive to acquire quantity. Just give yourself more chances to get a hit. I would rather have two 20ish picks than one top-5.
Rubes Posted March 24, 2016 Posted March 24, 2016 Sammy should improve again this year give time with TT. Big ifs here but he might be unbelievable if Harvin, is signed, and with Woods both reach their potential. I'm with you on this!
papazoid Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 That's why you pretty much should always trade down and strive to acquire quantity. Just give yourself more chances to get a hit. I would rather have two 20ish picks than one top-5. ABSOULTELY !! but in Sammy's case.....Whaley "hit" on his bold move BIGTIME !
BobbyC81 Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 For every first or second round bust, there's another team that would have happily picked that player within the next 10 or so picks. Very few of these guys wouldn't have been picked until 3-4 rounds later...if Dion Jordan, an Aaron Maybin level bust, wasn't picked 3rd overall, there's no way he would have lasted to 16 (where EJ was picked) or maybe even to 11 (where Maybin was picked)...and he would have been just as big a bust. Exceptions to your rule: players like DE Erik Flowers (Thanks Wade!) and TJ Graham. I believe that Maybin would've been taken by another team later in the 1st round.
YoloinOhio Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 (edited) Sammy ranked 5th best top 5 pick since 2012. Not bad! And still only 22. Edited March 25, 2016 by YoloinOhio
papazoid Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 Sammy ranked 5th best top 5 pick since 2012. Not bad! And still only 22. should have been ranked 4th best Sammy is a far better WR than Bortles is a QB.
8-8 Forever? Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 That's why you pretty much should always trade down and strive to acquire quantity. Just give yourself more chances to get a hit. I would rather have two 20ish picks than one top-5. really hoping they trade back from 19 for more picks in in round 2 and 3. I doubt anyone will be on the other side of that trade, but hey maybe
YoloinOhio Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 should have been ranked 4th best Sammy is a far better WR than Bortles is a QB. they probably weigh the QB position a little higher since it's harder to hit on a QB.
K D Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 100% hit rate in 2011 though! Top 6 from that draft could all end up in Canton some day. And that doesn't even include JJ Watt who fell out of the top 10 that year but might go down as the best defensive player ever
papazoid Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 they probably weigh the QB position a little higher since it's harder to hit on a QB. agreed.....but i wouldnt call Bortles a hit yet......he just isn't a miss.
YoloinOhio Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 agreed.....but i wouldnt call Bortles a hit yet......he just isn't a miss. true
TheFunPolice Posted March 25, 2016 Posted March 25, 2016 (edited) Bortles was tied for 2nd in the league in TD passes last season, behind only Brady. I thought the same thing, but he is more than a "not miss" IMO Edited March 25, 2016 by TheFunPolice
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