BuffaloBillsForever Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 (edited) The top rushing teams in the league are usually the ones with QBs who run a lot. Those running QBs inflate their team's rushing numbers quite a bit and that's certainly the case with the Bills. So don't put much stock in their team rushing rank. Agree 100%. Also in terms of the QB running Taylor 90% of the time they are on DESIGNED PASS PLAYS.This is actually a bad thing. Taylor's inability to scan the entire created this artificial inflation in their rushing stats and at the same time created a severe detriment to their passing game (last in the NFL). Edited February 22, 2016 by BuffaloBillsForever
thebandit27 Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 The top rushing teams in the league are usually the ones with QBs who run a lot. Those running QBs inflate their team's rushing numbers quite a bit and that's certainly the case with the Bills. So don't put much stock in their team rushing rank. It's certainly true that QBs can inflate the numbers and make them look better by comparison. For example, all of Buffalo, Carolina, Seattle, and KC finished in the top 6 in rushing yards, and their respective QBs were the top 4 rushing QBs. However... Remove their QB's rushing yards from the totals, and here's how they'd finish (league ranking in rush yards): Carolina - 18th Seattle - 17th Buffalo - 9th KC - 21st So yeah, Tyrod certainly helps, but he's adding to what's already a top-tier running game.
BuffaloBillsForever Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 (edited) It's certainly true that QBs can inflate the numbers and make them look better by comparison. For example, all of Buffalo, Carolina, Seattle, and KC finished in the top 6 in rushing yards, and their respective QBs were the top 4 rushing QBs. However... Remove their QB's rushing yards from the totals, and here's how they'd finish (league ranking in rush yards): Carolina - 18th Seattle - 17th Buffalo - 9th KC - 21st So yeah, Tyrod certainly helps, but he's adding to what's already a top-tier running game. Those 3 other teams all design a lot more running for the QB's especially Carolina and Seattle. Taylor's running is coming off passing plays. It's one of the main reasons they finished last in the NFL in passing offense. Edited February 22, 2016 by BuffaloBillsForever
thebandit27 Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 Agree 100%. Also in terms of the QB running Taylor 90% of the time they are on DESIGNED PASS PLAYS.This is actually a bad thing. Taylor's inability to scan the entire created this artificial inflation in their rushing stats and at the same time created a severe detriment to their passing game (last in the NFL). Not trying to nitpick here--is that 90% of the time statement something you saw an actual reference for, or are you shooting from the hip on that? Just curious. I wouldn't characterize Taylor's scrambling as a de facto bad thing. I would, however, agree that he needs to speed up the process to avoid having to scramble. I would also attribute some of that to not climbing to safety when the pocket is there and instead bailing out a bit too early. That, however, is not uncommon, as we saw what Carolina did to Russell Wilson in the playoffs by simply playing coverage and waiting for him to bail out of the pocket to the back. Those 3 other teams all design a lot more running for the QB's especially Carolina and Seattle. Taylor's running is coming off passing plays. It's one of the main reasons they finished last in the NFL in passing offense. Not from what I've seen--all 4 teams call a decent number of zone-read concepts. It seems to me that Newton and Wilson are more willing to keep the ball themselves on those plays. Maybe that's a decision-making issue for Taylor, or maybe he's been coached to reduce the number of times he's keeping the ball on those plays.
BarleyNY Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 Agree 100%. Also in terms of the QB running Taylor 90% of the time they are on DESIGNED PASS PLAYS.This is actually a bad thing. Taylor's inability to scan the entire created this artificial inflation in their rushing stats and at the same time created a severe detriment to their passing game (last in the NFL). I've been preaching the same. TT's propensity to run instead of completing his professions also limits the number of pass plays the OC can call. I looked at one random game and calculated that TT ran on 40% of his drop backs. I'll be keeping track in every game next season. That's just way too much (even if his season percentage is somewhat less). I understand that he is making positive plays instead of throwing incompletions, but he is also missing open receivers. Ultimately it is defeating. His dropbacks will always have to be limited and, with his size, he can't last continuing to play like that. He's going to have to force himself to stay in the pocket and get through his progressions if he's going to improve and there will be some growing pains if he does that. I'd much rather see him struggle early but grow rather than see what I saw last year.
FireChan Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 No, but you said he has the 4th biggest RB contract and "placed 12th." You either are using be black and white of the rankings in which case he is 4th or 12th or you are kind of talking out of both sides of your mouth. The rankings are fine to use when they fit the narrative but if you don't have 11 backs ahead of him you don't believe that he "he placed 12th." I'm probably not doing a very good job of getting my point across so I apologize. It is tough to communicate what I am getting at. Too often on here we use one set of numbers to make a point but won't support that position. Either he finished 12th in rushing so "there were 11 better because the stats say so" or "the circumstances play a role in why 11 finished ahead of him." He is the 4th highest paid RB and I don't think that there are 4 better backs than him right now. I would say Peterson, Gurley and Bell (coming off of an injury and suspension). Freeman and Martin are pretty good too. McCoy is still right there near the top. He can do things that Frank Gore, Chris Ivory, Deangelo Williams, etc... cannot. Those guys finished with more yards. There are 11 backs who were better than him in 2015. I doubt they will all be better than him next year. Again, I don't think it's unreasonable to have high expectations for McCoy. If he places 12th again, due to the "circumstances" next year, does it really matter how talented he is on paper? I want to win football games.
Kirby Jackson Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 There are 11 backs who were better than him in 2015. I doubt they will all be better than him next year. Again, I don't think it's unreasonable to have high expectations for McCoy. If he places 12th again, due to the "circumstances" next year, does it really matter how talented he is on paper? I want to win football games. I don't disagree. The injuries and the off the field stuff is more than a little concerning. As many have pointed out RBs do hit a wall quite often. The only thing that I was trying to argue is that he has not yet hit a wall. When he was out there and healthy he looked like the Shady of before. There are some in this thread that are ready to chuck the dirt on his grave as a washed up RB that is a shell of himself. That was not the case when he was on the field.
BarleyNY Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 (edited) It's certainly true that QBs can inflate the numbers and make them look better by comparison. For example, all of Buffalo, Carolina, Seattle, and KC finished in the top 6 in rushing yards, and their respective QBs were the top 4 rushing QBs. However... Remove their QB's rushing yards from the totals, and here's how they'd finish (league ranking in rush yards): Carolina - 18th Seattle - 17th Buffalo - 9th KC - 21st So yeah, Tyrod certainly helps, but he's adding to what's already a top-tier running game. I'd say there is a big difference between 9th in the NFL and 1st. 9th tells us that we have a strong running game, and that's good. We do. But each is just a sliver of information. Taken together 1st overall, 9th w/o TT's rushing tells me the QB is running a lot, maybe too much. Now let's dig a bit more. TT is 7th in passer rating and QBR, which is very good. But he was also 23rd in total passing yards and 24th in attempts, so he's not passing all that often. So we see who he was in 2015 - and who the Bills were. They ran the ball a lot. Both the RBs and QB did. The passing game was efficient, but was not as big a part of the offense as typical in the NFL. Lastly, the Bills were 13th in offensive yards per game and 12th in points per game. That's pretty good overall. The defense's rank of 19th in YPG and 15th in PPG was weaker. Just for fun I looked at the average of those rankings (12+13+19+15)/4=14.75. That's very close to the league average of 16.5 so the 8-8 record makes a lot of sense. I'd expect a team with that average ranking to finish with 8 or 9 wins. Edited February 22, 2016 by BarleyNY
thebandit27 Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 I'd say there is a big difference between 9th in the NFL and 1st. 9th tells us that we have a strong running game, and that's good. We do. But each is just a sliver of information. Taken together 1st overall, 9th w/o TT's rushing tells me the QB is running a lot, maybe too much. Now let's dig a bit more. TT is 7th in passer rating and QBR, which is very good. But he was also 23rd in total passing yards and 24th in attempts, so he's not passing all that often. So we see who he was in 2015 - and who the Bills were. They ran the ball a lot. Both the RBs and QB did. The passing game was efficient, but was not as big a part of the offense as typical in the NFL. Lastly, the Bills were 13th in offensive yards per game and 12th in points per game. That's pretty good overall. The defense's rank of 19th in YPG and 15th in PPG was weaker. Just for fun I looked at the average of those rankings (12+13+19+15)/4=14.75. That's very close to the league average of 16.5 so the 8-8 record makes a lot of sense. I'd expect a team with that average ranking to finish with 8 or 9 wins. Well, to give it the right context, you'd need to go through and normalize the rushing stats by subtracting all non-traditional rushing yards. I didn't bother to subtract out Tavon Austin's yards or Teddy Bridgewater's runs. Nevertheless, I do think Taylor runs too much--it's one area that he needs to improve upon. Actually, it may be two areas (stepping into the pocket instead of abandoning, and speeding up his diagnosis/release).
NoSaint Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 I don't disagree. The injuries and the off the field stuff is more than a little concerning. As many have pointed out RBs do hit a wall quite often. The only thing that I was trying to argue is that he has not yet hit a wall. When he was out there and healthy he looked like the Shady of before. There are some in this thread that are ready to chuck the dirt on his grave as a washed up RB that is a shell of himself. That was not the case when he was on the field. i think a few of those though are saying not that hes any bum off the street but that the guy that was once top 2-3 is now just very good instead of elite. some are rushing to bury him because of their distaste for the front office, but there are a few that are trying to be reasonable about it. ive sometimes waffled back and forth on whether i agree with a statement like "shady is currently in his prime," even if i still think hes pretty remarkable in what hes capable of.
klos63 Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 Buffalo's latest rebuild is now going into their 7th off-season and shows no signs of being over, i.e. making the playoffs. It's amazing that after rebuilding from 2010-2013 in 2014, the Bills needed their top 3 picks (including Kouandjio) to be starters. That trend continued in 2015 when their first and second picks needed to start and they'll again need at least the first rounder to produce out of the box. I don't see a vision to what they're doing. One year it's build through the draft and another it's spending big in UFA. That doesn't happen when teams frequently make good personnel decisions. For the record, the Bills drafted 3rd in 2011, preceded by Carolina, Denver, and followed by Cincinnati and Arizona. Those teams are pretty good while Buffalo languishes in NFL "purgatory" as Doug Whaley bemoans. Having your draft choices start or contribute immediately is how you help manage the cap. You replace the veteran contracts with rookie ones. It's pretty simple. All teams do that.
John from Riverside Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 Having your draft choices start or contribute immediately is how you help manage the cap. You replace the veteran contracts with rookie ones. It's pretty simple. All teams do that. This is why I fully expect a Mario replacement at 19....provided that the draft plays out in a way that is possible.
BobChalmers Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 (edited) "Clay was always going to get restructured......his contract was poison pilled so that Miami would not match......" THANK YOU - hard to believe how many people there are here who didn't know this. I mean, it WAS only ONE year ago... Edited February 22, 2016 by BobChalmers
aristocrat Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 how much does it save if we restructure clay? and then what does it do to the future?
BillsVet Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 Having your draft choices start or contribute immediately is how you help manage the cap. You replace the veteran contracts with rookie ones. It's pretty simple. All teams do that. If you're rebuilding a team, then rookies starting is understood. A team that does what the Bills do spending tons of money, then not making the playoffs, only to revert back to trying to find starters in the draft is like a sailboat at sea without any wind. Going nowhere. You're not rebuilding through the draft by drafting guys to replace veterans you just let go. A well built team can cut a high earning player and have a solution on the roster. The Bills rarely are in that position. This is why I fully expect a Mario replacement at 19....provided that the draft plays out in a way that is possible. This is otherwise known as spinning your wheels. See above.
Kirby Jackson Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 i think a few of those though are saying not that hes any bum off the street but that the guy that was once top 2-3 is now just very good instead of elite. some are rushing to bury him because of their distaste for the front office, but there are a few that are trying to be reasonable about it. ive sometimes waffled back and forth on whether i agree with a statement like "shady is currently in his prime," even if i still think hes pretty remarkable in what hes capable of. I think that is fair. I viewed it more of "everyone's hatred for his contract has clouded their view on his performance." The contract that he has is the going rate for a successful RB at that point in his career. The 3 guy's above him and 3 below him in contract value are Peterson, Marshawn, Foster then Demarco, Forte and Stewart. As of today Peterson is the only guy in that group that I would rather have. Forte and Stewart are pretty good players but they are not as dynamic IMO. I guess that maybe I don't hate the contract as much as some others. If you're rebuilding a team, then rookies starting is understood. A team that does what the Bills do spending tons of money, then not making the playoffs, only to revert back to trying to find starters in the draft is like a sailboat at sea without any wind. Going nowhere. You're not rebuilding through the draft by drafting guys to replace veterans you just let go. A well built team can cut a high earning player and have a solution on the roster. The Bills rarely are in that position. This is otherwise known as spinning your wheels. See above. Prior to Mario this year, who was the last worthwhile vet that the Bills let go that wasn't adequately replaced?
klos63 Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 If you're rebuilding a team, then rookies starting is understood. A team that does what the Bills do spending tons of money, then not making the playoffs, only to revert back to trying to find starters in the draft is like a sailboat at sea without any wind. Going nowhere. You're not rebuilding through the draft by drafting guys to replace veterans you just let go. A well built team can cut a high earning player and have a solution on the roster. The Bills rarely are in that position. This is otherwise known as spinning your wheels. See above. Yes you are.
thebandit27 Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 Prior to Mario this year, who was the last worthwhile vet that the Bills let go that wasn't adequately replaced? I would say Levitre
Kirby Jackson Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 I would say Levitre Yes, but he was not good in his next stop. If they plugged in any NFL lineman at the time it would have been the right decision. Searcy maybe? He's pretty good too. Is he that much better than Rambo or Graham or Duke that he was worth keeping? I would argue that they made the right decision to let him go because of the other guys back there. It is really Aaron Williams injury that caused the problem. Their best S went out and made everyone look a little worse.
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