hondo in seattle Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 (edited) If Rex is such a defensive Guru, why has his first draft pick every year except one as a head coach been for a defensive player? why the need? Also why have his defenses always regressed year after year? I don't mind people bashing Rex for his performance last year. But let's get the facts right when we do criticize him. Here are Rex's defensive rankings as a DC and HC. 2005 #5 2006 #1 2007 #6 2008 #2 2009 #1 2010 #3 2011 #5 2012 #8 2013 #8 2014 #6 2015 #19 I don't see a pattern of regression. I see a guy who - until last season - consistently placed his D in the top ten every year. And as KoolAid observes, Rex doesn't draft players. Yes, he has some input. But he doesn't hire or manage the scouts, doesn't set up the personnel evaluation system, and ultimately doesn't make the pick. And we do know that Rex was not happy with the drafts in New York. Under the circumstances, I don't think we can hold him accountable for draft picks. FWIW, in Rex's four years as the DC of the Ravens, his D never finished worse than 6th and only one year (2006) did they draft a defensive player first. They drafted Mark Clayton in the 1st rd in 2005, Ben Grubbs (G) in 2007 and Flacco in 2008. Rex did fine with later picks. Edited February 20, 2016 by hondo in seattle
Mister Defense Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 I don't mind people bashing Rex for his performance last year. But let's get the facts right when we do criticize him. Here are Rex's defensive rankings as a DC and HC. 2005 #5 2006 #1 2007 #6 2008 #2 2009 #1 2010 #3 2011 #5 2012 #8 2013 #8 2014 #6 2015 #19 I don't see a pattern of regression. I see a guy who - until last season - consistently placed his D in the top ten every year. And as KoolAid observes, Rex doesn't draft players. Yes, he has some input. But he doesn't hire or manage the scouts, doesn't set up the personnel evaluation system, and ultimately doesn't make the pick. And we do know that Rex was not happy with the drafts in New York. Under the circumstances, I don't think we can hold him accountable for draft picks. FWIW, in Rex's four years as the DC of the Ravens, his D never finished worse than 6th and only one year (2006) did they draft a defensive player first. They drafted Mark Clayton in the 1st rd in 2005, Ben Grubbs (G) in 2007 and Flacco in 2008. Rex did fine with later picks. Extremely misleading, as the poster likely knows... We know that those defenses often were paper tigers and couldn't do what they most needed to do--stop the other team from scoring. As in the last five years, they have been in the bottom half of the NFL every year: From a Dave McBride post: "Rex has certainly had that over the years. Still, over a five year stretch going back to 2011, here is how his defenses have fared on the points allowed front: 20th, 20th, 19th, 24th, and 16th (this year)." Those are the important numbers. Numbers like that are almost impossible to refute. Hard to imagine that this defense can rebound next year with same coaches, and more of the same 'philosophy" (and preparation, discipline, game day adjustments...). Carucci's article is very factual, hard to refute the implied conclusions: this did not work and will not work.
hondo in seattle Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 (edited) Extremely misleading, as the poster likely knows... We know that those defenses often were paper tigers and couldn't do what they most needed to do--stop the other team from scoring. As in the last five years, they have been in the bottom half of the NFL every year: From a Dave McBride post: "Rex has certainly had that over the years. Still, over a five year stretch going back to 2011, here is how his defenses have fared on the points allowed front: 20th, 20th, 19th, 24th, and 16th (this year)." Those are the important numbers. Numbers like that are almost impossible to refute. Hard to imagine that this defense can rebound next year with same coaches, and more of the same 'philosophy" (and preparation, discipline, game day adjustments...). Carucci's article is very factual, hard to refute the implied conclusions: this did not work and will not work. I actually didn't know how Rex has struggled with scoring stats. His record is indeed spotty... 2005 #10 2006 #1 2007 #22 2008 #3 2009 #1 2010 #6 2011 #20 2012 #20 2013 #19 2014 #24 2015 #15 Rex once with the Ravens ('06) and once with the Jets ('09) built the stingiest defense in the NFL. But the recent track record is admittedly dismaying. Let's hope Rex can recapture his old magic but I'm feeling less optimistic now than I was earlier today before looking at these numbers. (Thanks, Mister Defense). Edited February 20, 2016 by hondo in seattle
GunnerBill Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 The drop off in recent years supports what my suspicion is on the Rex D - it was the D of the naughties and offenses have adjusted. The fall off coincides with the increased prevalence of the up tempo, ball out in 2 seconds offenses that now exist across much of the league.
Saxum Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 The coach and GM work together. Sometimes - for NJ Jests the coach and GM seemed to not work together at all but final decision is made by GM not coach on who to sign. Blaming or giving credit to the HC for draft is wrong.
Wayne Cubed Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 Extremely misleading, as the poster likely knows... We know that those defenses often were paper tigers and couldn't do what they most needed to do--stop the other team from scoring. As in the last five years, they have been in the bottom half of the NFL every year: From a Dave McBride post: "Rex has certainly had that over the years. Still, over a five year stretch going back to 2011, here is how his defenses have fared on the points allowed front: 20th, 20th, 19th, 24th, and 16th (this year)." Those are the important numbers. Numbers like that are almost impossible to refute. Hard to imagine that this defense can rebound next year with same coaches, and more of the same 'philosophy" (and preparation, discipline, game day adjustments...). Carucci's article is very factual, hard to refute the implied conclusions: this did not work and will not work. Actually it's pretty easy to somewhat refute Points Per Game with advanced statistics. If a really good defense has a horrible offense thy will be on the field a lot more than a team with an average offense and an average defense. Great defenses, can overcome for the most part a horrible offense. But good and very good defenses are going to get tired. Which defense is better, the one that stops an offense 3 out of 12 times or the one that's stops it 2 out of 6 times? I find points per drive and scoring percentage per drive are a little better than overall PPG. Take for example 2012, where the Jets were ranked 20th in PPG, well they were 8th in points per drive and 10th in scoring percentage per drive. In 2011 they were even better, the Jets defense was 5th in points per drive and 7th in scoring percentage. It's not always just one statistic that defines a defense and how good they are. It's a cumulation of many.
Tenhigh Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 You'd think after Kyle Orton **** on Rex's defense twice last year the organization would want nothing to do with him..... This claim is kind of crazy, you know that, right? Rex's GM gutted the roster that Orton played against. Actually it's pretty easy to somewhat refute Points Per Game with advanced statistics. If a really good defense has a horrible offense thy will be on the field a lot more than a team with an average offense and an average defense. Great defenses, can overcome for the most part a horrible offense. But good and very good defenses are going to get tired. Which defense is better, the one that stops an offense 3 out of 12 times or the one that's stops it 2 out of 6 times? I find points per drive and scoring percentage per drive are a little better than overall PPG. Take for example 2012, where the Jets were ranked 20th in PPG, well they were 8th in points per drive and 10th in scoring percentage per drive. In 2011 they were even better, the Jets defense was 5th in points per drive and 7th in scoring percentage. It's not always just one statistic that defines a defense and how good they are. It's a cumulation of many. Good point. but you can't refute Mr. Defense. I mean his name is Mr. Defense, for Chrissakes.
3rdand12 Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 Actually it's pretty easy to somewhat refute Points Per Game with advanced statistics. If a really good defense has a horrible offense thy will be on the field a lot more than a team with an average offense and an average defense. Great defenses, can overcome for the most part a horrible offense. But good and very good defenses are going to get tired. Which defense is better, the one that stops an offense 3 out of 12 times or the one that's stops it 2 out of 6 times? I find points per drive and scoring percentage per drive are a little better than overall PPG. Take for example 2012, where the Jets were ranked 20th in PPG, well they were 8th in points per drive and 10th in scoring percentage per drive. In 2011 they were even better, the Jets defense was 5th in points per drive and 7th in scoring percentage. It's not always just one statistic that defines a defense and how good they are. It's a cumulation of many. There are many ways to peel back an onion. I think one season is all i will judge him on. He struggled getting 11 players to work in unison. If the confusion shows up again i will be sad but I will certainly call for his head. For me, last year was an anomaly. Two bad years as a Bill, will define it as trend. And i bet my sweet bippy he will not survive for a third This claim is kind of crazy, you know that, right? Rex's GM gutted the roster that Orton played against. Good point. but you can't refute Mr. Defense. I mean his name is Mr. Defense, for Chrissakes. LOL'd indefensible
Wayne Cubed Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 There are many ways to peel back an onion. I think one season is all i will judge him on. He struggled getting 11 players to work in unison. If the confusion shows up again i will be sad but I will certainly call for his head. For me, last year was an anomaly. Two bad years as a Bill, will define it as trend. And i bet my sweet bippy he will not survive for a third indefensible Oh he definitely failed last season and can be judged on that. And as you say if the defense doesn't improve next season it will be a trend.
3rdand12 Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 Oh he definitely failed last season and can be judged on that. And as you say if the defense doesn't improve next season it will be a trend. I gotta give him another shot, but there can be no more excuses. Thing is, i bet he knows it down to his bones.
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 Sometimes - for NJ Jests the coach and GM seemed to not work together at all but final decision is made by GM not coach on who to sign. Blaming or giving credit to the HC for draft is wrong.That was only true once they hired idzik. Prior to that Rex held influence over which positions were prioritized, as a head coach should, and nearly all do.
3rdand12 Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 That was only true once they hired idzik. Prior to that Rex held influence over which positions were prioritized, as a head coach should, and nearly all do. just now noticed the GD reference of shakedown street
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 just now noticed the GD reference of shakedown street You like the dead? My man. Just wish I coulda seen that band beyond description before Jerry departed.
3rdand12 Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 You like the dead? My man. Just wish I coulda seen that band beyond description before Jerry departed. I have some experience in the area of music.LOL! pm'd you. Check out "Cats under the Stars" if you have time
TC in St. Louis Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 Rex has a history of great defenses. Many things went wrong. Hopefully they will get fixed. One thing that sucked for sure was the effort put forth by Mario Williams. That dude sleepwalked through nearly the entire season. Rex likes to show off. He is set up to have a show-off season this year by fixing the defense and the offense continuing to grow.
hondo in seattle Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 (edited) Actually it's pretty easy to somewhat refute Points Per Game with advanced statistics. If a really good defense has a horrible offense thy will be on the field a lot more than a team with an average offense and an average defense. Great defenses, can overcome for the most part a horrible offense. But good and very good defenses are going to get tired. Which defense is better, the one that stops an offense 3 out of 12 times or the one that's stops it 2 out of 6 times? I find points per drive and scoring percentage per drive are a little better than overall PPG. Take for example 2012, where the Jets were ranked 20th in PPG, well they were 8th in points per drive and 10th in scoring percentage per drive. In 2011 they were even better, the Jets defense was 5th in points per drive and 7th in scoring percentage. It's not always just one statistic that defines a defense and how good they are. It's a cumulation of many. As you say, judging team performance requires the accumulation of many statistics. But let's roll with points per drive since you brought it up as a better stat than yards or points allowed. Here's Rex's standings as a DC and HC... Baltimore 2005 #10 2006 #1 2007 #23 2008 #1 New York 2009 #1 2010 #5 2011 #6 2012 #13 2013 #17 2014 #24 Buffalo 2015 #14 Rex has been able to deliver results when he has the right players for his scheme. 3 out of 11 years as DC or HC, his D was the best in the NFL in points allowed per drive. It's still disappointing Rex wasn't able to do more with the players he had last year. And it's worrisome that he hasn't fielded a good D since 2011. Maybe GunnerBill is right and Rex has failed to keep up with the evolution of offensive football. Incidentally, the Bills were #1 in pts allowed/drive, #2 in yards allowed/drive, and #7 in turnovers/drive, and #1 in overall drive success rate under Schwartz in 2014 (according to Football Outsiders). It wasn't all about the sacks. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats2012 Edited February 21, 2016 by hondo in seattle
TheFunPolice Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 Schwartz's defenses folded like a cheap tent in games against good teams and/or games that mattered to that team making the playoffs. I want a defense like Denver's that is best when it matters most, not a defense that can crush awful teams then allow the New Englands*of the world to march up and down the field and score at will.
GunnerBill Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 (edited) You mean the Oakland game? One game? The run defense sucked against Oakland and the pass defense sucked in the second half of the first new England game. That is what the Rex apologists have to hang on to. But when you look at the Oakland game more closely you realise the offense was just as big of a reason we lost.... we ran something like 11 times for 10 yards. The defense that folded against good teams had brutalised the Packers the week before - a pretty "good" team, no? But regardless give me 4th overall over 19th overall even if 4th overall could have been better. In fact I remember someone saying very publicly that 4th overall was disappointing and that with the talent we should be 1st overall. Now who was that? Oh yes, it was the man who masterminded the decline to 19th. Edited February 21, 2016 by GunnerBill
Wayne Cubed Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 As you say, judging team performance requires the accumulation of many statistics. But let's roll with points per drive since you brought it up as a better stat than yards or points allowed. Here's Rex's standings as a DC and HC... Baltimore 2005 #10 2006 #1 2007 #23 2008 #1 New York 2009 #1 2010 #5 2011 #6 2012 #13 2013 #17 2014 #24 Buffalo 2015 #14 Rex has been able to deliver results when he has the right players for his scheme. 3 out of 11 years as DC or HC, his D was the best in the NFL in points allowed per drive. It's still disappointing Rex wasn't able to do more with the players he had last year. And it's worrisome that he hasn't fielded a good D since 2011. Maybe GunnerBill is right and Rex has failed to keep up with the evolution of offensive football. Incidentally, the Bills were #1 in pts allowed/drive, #2 in yards allowed/drive, and #7 in turnovers/drive, and #1 in overall drive success rate under Schwartz in 2014 (according to Football Outsiders). It wasn't all about the sacks. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats2012 And prior coming to the Bills Jim Schwartz hadn't fielded a good defense in more than 3 years. Not even a top 10 defense. Did that mean that Jim Schwartz had "failed to keep up with the evolution of offenses"? No, that can't be true because Schwartz came to Buffalo and fielded a very good defense. It just so happens that Buffalo had the exact pieces to run a Jim Schwartz defense.
NoSaint Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 And prior coming to the Bills Jim Schwartz hadn't fielded a good defense in more than 3 years. Not even a top 10 defense. Did that mean that Jim Schwartz had "failed to keep up with the evolution of offenses"? No, that can't be true because Schwartz came to Buffalo and fielded a very good defense. It just so happens that Buffalo had the exact pieces to run a Jim Schwartz defense. Unfortunately, we still do.
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