Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 Hell, I'd be impressed if they could just predict 75% of the players taken in the 1st round regardless of team. Actually they probably do get that part correct as unlikely too many players are going to fall from the top 10 to 33 or lower. But how many do they get right between say #20 and 32 as opposed to dropping into 2nd round, and/or players moving up to the 1st round. Until someone can show me that any draft "expert" can produce a consistent record of 75% or better in identifying who teams select in the 1st round (beyond the top 2-3 picks), the only thing I'll be doing with these predictions is "mocking" them.
Kirby Jackson Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 This big board is pretty interesting. Leroi said Myles Jack is the pick for the Bills if he's there. Won't be. Interesting how overvalued the QB position is if one goes in top 5 or even 20 compared to BPA overall. According to this, of course. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/60142/325/draft-rankings-big-board-20?utm_network=twitter&utm_post=5068053&utm_source=TW%20%40NBCSports You can book it if Leroi says it. He was the only one on Darby last year.
YoloinOhio Posted February 4, 2016 Author Posted February 4, 2016 (edited) You can book it if Leroi says it. He was the only one on Darby last year.yep, that is why I took note when he posted it. And of course, it's possible he's #1 on their board too. Pipe dream, but you never know. Edited February 4, 2016 by YoloinOhio
thebandit27 Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 Hell, I'd be impressed if they could just predict 75% of the players taken in the 1st round regardless of team. Actually they probably do get that part correct as unlikely too many players are going to fall from the top 10 to 33 or lower. But how many do they get right between say #20 and 32 as opposed to dropping into 2nd round, and/or players moving up to the 1st round. Well, not that I'm an expert, but I've crested 75% of the players picked in the 1st round in each of the last 4 years. 2011 was my best year, when I got 28 of 32 players picked in the 1st. Evidence: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/177936-bandits-annual-mock-review-and-new-round-2-added/?hl=mock http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/167458-bandits-annual-mock/?hl=mock http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/129473-bandits-mock/?hl=mock http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/111603-bandits-mock/?hl=mock http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/87527-bandits-mock/?hl=mock
Kirby Jackson Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 yep, that is why I took note when he posted it. And of course, it's possible he's #1 on their board too. Pipe dream, but you never know.Agree
H2o Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 See although he wraps and usually makes the tackle he just doesn't deliver that pop when he hits. What the hell do I know anyway, but he just has never impressed me as a physical player i think he will struggle in the NFL, but I've been wrong before. I get what you are saying. He is not the most ferocious of hitters and wont generate forced fumbles on hit power alone. He does have that closing speed and lays the lumber to a ball carrier every now and again though.
Pete Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/14712217/re-grading-2015-offseason-all-32-teams Buffalo Bills Offseason grade: B+ Re-signing key players such as Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams secured high marks for the Bills last offseason even amid some concerns over the price paid for LeSean McCoy and the team's coaching change. What we missed, completely, was the impact Tyrod Taylor would have at quarterback. The Bills had Taylor buried on the depth chart when we handed out grades, so there was little outward indication the team had big plans for him. Buffalo scored significant offseason victories by adding Taylor, guard Richie Incognito and second-round cornerback Ronald Darby. Re-grade: A-
jumbalaya Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 too bad we need so much D. I'd love to see Braxton Miller, Sammy and Percy flying down the sidelines together. If Goodwin could catch and stay healthy the speed would be unbelievable.
Marty McFly Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/14712217/re-grading-2015-offseason-all-32-teams Buffalo Bills Offseason grade: B+ Re-signing key players such as Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams secured high marks for the Bills last offseason even amid some concerns over the price paid for LeSean McCoy and the team's coaching change. What we missed, completely, was the impact Tyrod Taylor would have at quarterback. The Bills had Taylor buried on the depth chart when we handed out grades, so there was little outward indication the team had big plans for him. Buffalo scored significant offseason victories by adding Taylor, guard Richie Incognito and second-round cornerback Ronald Darby. Re-grade: A- Does anyone have the link to all the other teams re-grades? I dont have insider.
Leroi Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 yep, that is why I took note when he posted it. And of course, it's possible he's #1 on their board too. Pipe dream, but you never know. Whaley and the scouts are in love with Jack. He is the general this D needs. I expect and anticipate Whaley to be aggressive getting the player he wants . Imo
YoloinOhio Posted February 4, 2016 Author Posted February 4, 2016 Whaley and the scouts are in love with Jack. He is the general this D needs. I expect and anticipate Whaley to be aggressive getting the player he wants . Imo uh oh. Is this like Sammy love? #rogue
GunnerBill Posted February 4, 2016 Posted February 4, 2016 You can book it if Leroi says it. He was the only one on Darby last year. Agree with what you say but isn't it a bit early yet to have the board set? Leroi's Darby intel last year came much later. They may well love Jack - I can see that but I'd be surprised if the board was set. Well, not that I'm an expert, but I've crested 75% of the players picked in the 1st round in each of the last 4 years. 2011 was my best year, when I got 28 of 32 players picked in the 1st. Evidence: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/177936-bandits-annual-mock-review-and-new-round-2-added/?hl=mock http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/167458-bandits-annual-mock/?hl=mock http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/129473-bandits-mock/?hl=mock http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/111603-bandits-mock/?hl=mock http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/87527-bandits-mock/?hl=mock Yep you do a good job Bandit. The one year I posted a mock in 2014 I think I got 23 out of 32 and 5 matched with the right team. I was pleased with that.
metzelaars_lives Posted February 5, 2016 Posted February 5, 2016 Can we please stop doing the "experts" in quotes thing? They are experts. They are the ones who come up with the framework of where people are projected to go. Because they don't get every single pick right does not discredit their work. I would have no idea who the first round guys were right now if not for the experts. Thank you.
baskingridgebillsfan Posted February 5, 2016 Posted February 5, 2016 This draft is so stinking deep at some positions . I really hope somebody falls in love with a player at 19 and we can trade down.
Pete Posted February 5, 2016 Posted February 5, 2016 This draft is so stinking deep at some positions . I really hope somebody falls in love with a player at 19 and we can trade down. amen. I would love to load up on second and third round picks!
YoloinOhio Posted February 5, 2016 Author Posted February 5, 2016 (edited) Agree with what you say but isn't it a bit early yet to have the board set? Leroi's Darby intel last year came much later. They may well love Jack - I can see that but I'd be surprised if the board was set. Yep you do a good job Bandit. The one year I posted a mock in 2014 I think I got 23 out of 32 and 5 matched with the right team. I was pleased with that. Monos said the board is "set" at the end of January. Can be fluid as he or Whaley or fisher may want to move guys slightly up or down based on combine, interviews, visits. But I don't expect the first round, or their top 5 or so players on their board especially, will change. I think he's referring to mid to late rounders. Edited February 5, 2016 by YoloinOhio
Billsmovinup Posted February 5, 2016 Posted February 5, 2016 This is a ridiculous post. If it weren't for guys like Kiper and McShay you wouldn't even know where to begin. It would be impossible for anyone to get the draft "75% right." But because of guys like them you have a good idea who's gonna go in what round. Did you "mock" the "experts" when the Bills took Donte Whitner 8th overall? If so, you were mocking the wrong party. He specifically said "if they can clear him" in the article. Correct. You have a point but that doesn't mean those guys aren't incredibly annoying. Kiper has a coronary every time someone deviates from his board. My favorite is when a team picking 18th takes a guy he had slotted 25th and then we have to listen to the infinitely stupid "should have traded down" crap. First, how exactly does he know who, if anyone, was willing to trade down and second, how does Kiper know that somebody who was behind you and is now in front of you, due to the trade down, isn't going to take the guy you like? Ridiculous is the concept of a "reach" when half the guys taken in round one have average to well below average impact during their NFL careers. Kiper and McShay act like they are the only ones who got it right and everyone else is clueless.
GunnerBill Posted February 5, 2016 Posted February 5, 2016 Monos said the board is "set" at the end of January. Can be fluid as he or Whaley or fisher may want to move guys slightly up or down based on combine, interviews, visits. But I don't expect the first round, or their top 5 or so players on their board especially, will change. I think he's referring to mid to late rounders. In which case I stand corrected. Seems early to me. You have a point but that doesn't mean those guys aren't incredibly annoying. Kiper has a coronary every time someone deviates from his board. My favorite is when a team picking 18th takes a guy he had slotted 25th and then we have to listen to the infinitely stupid "should have traded down" crap. First, how exactly does he know who, if anyone, was willing to trade down and second, how does Kiper know that somebody who was behind you and is now in front of you, due to the trade down, isn't going to take the guy you like? Ridiculous is the concept of a "reach" when half the guys taken in round one have average to well below average impact during their NFL careers. Kiper and McShay act like they are the only ones who got it right and everyone else is clueless. I think that is much more the point with Kiper and McShay. If it was just "I think this is a rough order of the draft based on what I perceive need etc to be" that would be fine. But they do start calling a guy going 10 spots higher in the first round "a reach" and that always annoys me. I'm much more of a Mike Mayock man than Kiper and McShay.
YoloinOhio Posted February 5, 2016 Author Posted February 5, 2016 (edited) In which case I stand corrected. Seems early to me. I think that is much more the point with Kiper and McShay. If it was just "I think this is a rough order of the draft based on what I perceive need etc to be" that would be fine. But they do start calling a guy going 10 spots higher in the first round "a reach" and that always annoys me. I'm much more of a Mike Mayock man than Kiper and McShay. i think it depends on how you define "set" when it comes to team's draft boards. I have heard of teams having it set by the end of the CFB regular season. When they say this it means that is based on info from the scouts. And, they are trusting the tape. The word "set" is probably inaccurate since movement will occur. It's more of a first draft and then it gets tweaked along the way as they get more info from combine and interviews and things like Sr bowl practice ago pro days to more or less confirm what they have. Or medicals could take a guy off and move someone else up. But as far as who their top guy is - bet he's been the one for a long time and that won't change unless something drastic happens. Edited February 5, 2016 by YoloinOhio
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 5, 2016 Posted February 5, 2016 Agree with what you say but isn't it a bit early yet to have the board set? Leroi's Darby intel last year came much later. They may well love Jack - I can see that but I'd be surprised if the board was set. Yep you do a good job Bandit. The one year I posted a mock in 2014 I think I got 23 out of 32 and 5 matched with the right team. I was pleased with that. I got real lucky last year with 26/32 and 10 player/team matches. Definitely my best results thus far.
Recommended Posts