Is it wise to grossly underpay your starting QB?

[eball]

The weird part is that the Bills window is small. They haven't won anything but their window is closing. By next year they are going to be paying their QB $20M (ish), Gilmore like a top 10 CB and thinking about Watkins as a top 5 WR. It's nice to have talent but it can definitely impact everything else.

 

Not having a QB and continuing to cycle through head coaches has killed this franchise. I'm not saying the Bills should have stuck with Dick Jauron or anything, but the repeated system changes have prevented anything from taking hold. Even great talent suffers when the players have to constantly change what they're being asked to do. I'll admit it would have been interesting to see the result if Marrone/Schwartz had been around last year -- but that ship has sailed.

 

Rex/Whaley better get it right -- and fast.

[Virgil]

Really? The Jets are set at QB?

 

How about AZ? Carson Palmer isn't going to p[lay forever, and judging from his playoff performance, the end could be coming sooner.

 

Here's my list of teams that would be interested in TT to varying degrees: Jets, Ravens, Browns, Texans, Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Bears, Saints, Cards, Rams, Niners.

Half of those teams can't afford $19 mil or have a starter that they aren't moving on from. You think the Ravens, Chargers, Cowboys, lions, bears, Saints, and cards are gonna pay that for a backup or cut their starter for him?

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Not having a QB and continuing to cycle through head coaches has killed this franchise. I'm not saying the Bills should have stuck with Dick Jauron or anything, but the repeated system changes have prevented anything from taking hold. Even great talent suffers when the players have to constantly change what they're being asked to do. I'll admit it would have been interesting to see the result if Marrone/Schwartz had been around last year -- but that ship has sailed.

 

Rex/Whaley better get it right -- and fast.

Yep, that is the funny thing about football. I actually like the talent of this roster. If you look top to bottom it is one of the most talented rosters in the league. With that being said when these young guys with talent (Glenn, Gilmore, Watkins, Darby, Tyrod, Dareus and Aaron Williams) hit the market their price goes up. In some cases it goes up quite a bit. The sportrac projection has Tyrod getting $17 or $18M more a year. Dareus just got his raise, AW before him and Glenn is up next.

 

In order to keep these top young guys you have to start sacrificing the good middle tier players and replacing them with younger alternatives. At some point soon it is going to be guys like Wood, Kyle, Graham, McKelvin that have to go in order to just keep the young guys that you currently have. If those young guys produce at the same level you basically have to have rookies or cheap vets give you the production of that Wood, Kyle, Graham tier to just be at a net zero. That is why windows close so quickly in the NFL.

 

That is part of the amazing thing that the Pats have been able to do. Obviously they have Brady and Belicheck but they made tough decisions with Welker, Seymour, Milloy, Branch, Law, Revis, etc... and found guys to replace their production at a cheap price. That is where the scheme part ties in. I thought that the Bills defensive scheme really hurt them last year. Offensively it was solid. You saw guys like Tyrod, Gillislee and Karlos contributing quite a bit at minimal cost.

Edited January 29, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[K D]

Tyrod is going to make more than Tom Brady. Not sure what planet that makes sense on but the going rate for halfway decent QB's is just stupid. Blame Tannehill and the Dolphins and Flacco and the Ravens before that

[ALF]

That's why it is critical to have a much larger scouting dept to make good draft picks and trades.

[plenzmd1]

Tyrod is going to make more than Tom Brady. Not sure what planet that makes sense on but the going rate for halfway decent QB's is just stupid. Blame Tannehill and the Dolphins and Flacco and the Ravens before that

but Brady takes half market cause his wife makes $50M a year..

[Kirby Jackson]

but Brady takes half market cause his wife makes $50M a year..

It's the old Tim Duncan argument. He makes like $10M a year and Enes Kanter make $17.5M a year. It is a legit hometown discount. David West did the same thing to chase a championship. He turned down $12.2M this year to sign for $1.4M and try to win a ring.

 

Those guys are the outliers not the norm. Using Brady's contract as the example is the equivalent of comparing all 6th round picks to Brady. You need to throw out the outliers and base the comparison on the majority.

Edited January 29, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[Mr. WEO]

How much longer do you think Flacco, Brees and Palmer will play? It's not that crazy. You don't think the Ravens would love to have Taylor back?

 

 

So they would pay him 19 million to come back if he was a FA now? To backup Flacco for another 6-7 years?

 

For unintended hilarity, this thread is quietly spectacular.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

So they would pay him 19 million to come back if he was a FA now? To backup Flacco for another 6-7 years?

 

For unintended hilarity, this thread is quietly spectacular.

I think that the argument makes more sense if structured as "how many teams would rather have the Bills QB situation?" At the present moment the answer is a lot. The production that the Bills got for $1M or whatever is really appealing to a lot of teams. That doesn't mean that they would rather have Tyrod (or Cousins or Bortles or Carr) than Brees for example. They would rather have a 26 year old with that production making a million than a 38 year old with better production making $22M (or whatever). That all changes next year from the contract standpoint.

 

Then the other part of the equation is would you rather a 27 year old Taylor at $19M or a 37 year old Palmer at $16.5M. That is a totally different argument. Taylor would not start ahead of Palmer but a case could be made that the Cardinals would rather have the Bills QB situation than their own. Again, these are all hypotheticals because no one is getting rid of their QBs. It just doesn't work that way.

[Mr. WEO]

I think that the argument makes more sense if structured as "how many teams would rather have the Bills QB situation?" At the present moment the answer is a lot. The production that the Bills got for $1M or whatever is really appealing to a lot of teams. That doesn't mean that they would rather have Tyrod (or Cousins or Bortles or Carr) than Brees for example. They would rather have a 26 year old with that production making a million than a 38 year old with better production making $22M (or whatever). That all changes next year from the contract standpoint.

 

Then the other part of the equation is would you rather a 27 year old Taylor at $19M or a 37 year old Palmer at $16.5M. That is a totally different argument. Taylor would not start ahead of Palmer but a case could be made that the Cardinals would rather have the Bills QB situation than their own. Again, these are all hypotheticals because no one is getting rid of their QBs. It just doesn't work that way.

 

Oh I get all that. Everyone was saying the same about Wilson on his rookie contract.

 

But PTR made no such argument. He says that as a FA now, TT would command up to 19 million--even as a backup to established starters. That's ridiculous. No matter what the status of their starter, no team (Certainly not AZ) would pay 19 million a year for the backup QB--especially not one with less than a season played in a 5 year career.

[Saxum]

We've completely disrespected him from the beginning. Signed him in free agency as a backup or third string, actually made him compete for the job in camp, named him the starter but lined him up at WR for the first snap of the season, played EJ instead of him when he was hurt, and then publicly stated that although he enters 2016 as the starter but they still want him to continue to improve. I'm surprised he hasn't burnt OBD to the ground or gone all Kromer and murdered a whole family. There's only so much a man can take.

Maybe he is not as irrational, implusive or sarcastic as you?

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Oh I get all that. Everyone was saying the same about Wilson on his rookie contract.

 

But PTR made no such argument. He says that as a FA now, TT would command up to 19 million--even as a backup to established starters. That's ridiculous. No matter what the status of their starter, no team (Certainly not AZ) would pay 19 million a year for the backup QB--especially not one with less than a season played in a 5 year career.

Of course no one would pay him that to be a backup. Even if it was just for a year to someone Peyton that will be retiring.

[Wayne Cubed]

Of course no one would pay him that to be a backup. Even if it was just for a year to someone Peyton that will be retiring.

 

I don't even think a team like the Jets would offer him that kind of money and their QB situation isn't amazing. Like I said earlier in the thread I think, maybe, the Rams, Texans, Browns and Eagles would offer him the $19m. Still think that's a stretch because some of those teams are picking high in the draft and i think would prefer a draft prospect and a journeyman over Taylor who has started all of 14 games.

[Saxum]

Yes, pay him 20mm a year. It really worked good for us when we did that with F$tzmoney.

Expect the Bills DIDN'T pay him that much, it was a middle of starting pack contract.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I don't even think a team like the Jets would offer him that kind of money and their QB situation isn't amazing. Like I said earlier in the thread I think, maybe, the Rams, Texans, Browns and Eagles would offer him the $19m. Still think that's a stretch because some of those teams are picking high in the draft and i think would prefer a draft prospect and a journeyman over Taylor who has started all of 14 games.

That's about the list but you need to include Denver. Kubiak was his OC and they offered him the most money in FA last year. If they like him more than Osweiler (I certainly do) it is another option. Osweiler is a FA too I believe. Again, it doesn't really matter as we are talking hypotheticals.

[Wayne Cubed]

That's about the list but you need to include Denver. Kubiak was his OC and they offered him the most money in FA last year. If they like him more than Osweiler (I certainly do) it is another option. Osweiler is a FA too I believe. Again, it doesn't really matter as we are talking hypotheticals.

 

I did say Denver in my original post, still don't think they'd offer the $19m. I'd guess they'd want him for a bit less, seeing as they could get Osweiler for less. Suppose it depends on what they think of Osweiler.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I did say Denver in my original post, still don't think they'd offer the $19m. I'd guess they'd want him for a bit less, seeing as they could get Osweiler for less. Suppose it depends on what they think of Osweiler.

Yeah, it depends what they think of Brock. They must think that they are contenders with even decent QB play. They received pretty poor QB play this year and are playing for the Super Bowl. I could see them this offseason taking a shot on someone like RGIII to keep their window open. Go into camp with Bob G and Brock and see if you can get the old Bob Griffin. If you can, you are an instant contender.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

Oh I get all that. Everyone was saying the same about Wilson on his rookie contract.

 

But PTR made no such argument. He says that as a FA now, TT would command up to 19 million--even as a backup to established starters. That's ridiculous. No matter what the status of their starter, no team (Certainly not AZ) would pay 19 million a year for the backup QB--especially not one with less than a season played in a 5 year career.

If you find in this thread where I said that TT would get $19MMM as a backup and I'll give you a hundred dollars!

Edited January 29, 2016 by PromoTheRobot

[Maddog69]

...in his contract year?

 

http://www.wgr550.com/pages/22414460.php?contentType=4&contentId=18361835

 

So Taylor will make $2M when his value is $19MM. I think Whaley is risking a lot. If TT feels he's been disrespected by the Bills and he makes it to free agency, I think you can kiss him goodbye. Especially when he will be the most sought after free agent in decades.

How would he feel disrespected when the Bills brought him in specifically to give him a chance to become a starter. He was given a 3 yr deal that voided to 2 if he performed well and gives him a chance to hit a big contract at the end of year two "IF HE EARNS IT". He hasn't yet earned it. He has a lot of things to improve on. Will he/Can he earn that big payday, very possibly yes. But I don't think the Bills are totally convinced and I would be shocked if anyone else around the league is 100% convinced. I think it would be a HUGE mistake to sign him for $19-$20+ per year on a long terms deal right now. The best play is to try to get him to agree to a 1-2 yr extension. Something like 2yrs, $36m ($8m signing bonus maybe 50-60% GTD). That gives him some immediate cash upfront and some stability. It would give the Bills time to see if he is the long term answer and he would still have the opportunity to cash in Big time at the age of 29 IF HE EARNS IT.

 

Panicking now and signing him to a Ryan Tannehill type deal would be a mistake. Look at the 49ers and Kaepernick. I don't want the Bills to be in that situation.

[PlayoffsPlease]

The Seahawks waited a long time to sign a Russell Wilson after he won a super bowl. These guys are expensive assets. Tyrod has durability concerns. If he is injured in anyway, his effectiveness could disappear, a la RGIII. It make zero business sense to sign him early.