Rex's D

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Admittedly I don't understand X's and O's as much as some of you.

 

But from my standpoint, the problem with the first Patriots game wasn't so much the pass rush strategy as it was the coverage strategy. The CBs were playing 10 yards off. It was pitch-and-catch for Tommy Boy and his receivers.

 

Isn't Rex's defense about coverages more than the pass rush? Shouldn't this article be analyzing coverages in the backend? Again, I admit I'm no expert here. Just floating out the idea.

The thing about the pats game comparison is the first match up was an 8 point loss, the beacon of defensive success was a 7 point loss. Who's defense got smoked by Kirk cousins? Was that another reluctant hybrid? Maybe when they say "defensive genius" they mean genius at defending mediocrity/failure.

 

The bottom line is they need to get everything Rex wants for his defense. I want all of his excuses removed so when he fields a 18th ranked defense next year he is promptly escorted to the door and the wrecks ball washers can follow him as Alcon state's linebacker coach.

 

If he somehow backs up his bravado well then we can all revel in his intermittent genius

[GG]

 

1) Don't trust your hunch.....this years D was the less than mediocre. A violent pass rush with an improved offense/running game would have been a better formula than what worked on D in 2014. Speculating that the D would have been worse is nothing more than the fox that couldn't reach the grapes rationalizing that they were probably sour anyway.

 

2) Injuries aren't all random. They are often a byproduct of unusual action and fatigue. Both of which were in much greater supply courtesy of Rex hodge-podge 2015 D.

 

3) I don't ballwash Schwartz so enough of that nonsense. He is a one trick DC whose D only works with great talent on the DL. That being the case, the fact that he couldn't do as well or better reflected very poorly on the renowned defensive genius Rex Ryan.

 

1 - That's the fun game of playing hypotheticals of where this defense would have been with Schwartz still in charge, and my view is that it would have been worse than Rex's D. They definitely would have generated more QB pressures, but I think they would have given up more yards and not certain that they would have gotten more turnovers. I think the violent pass rush would have been equally neutered by the offensive designs that we saw this year. To me, the 2014 defense was more of a flash in the pan than something that could have been sustained, kind of liked Schwartz's career.

 

2 - The injuries to Bills D were fairly random, Kyle got rolled up and Carrington got stepped on. You also constantly admit that Aaron's neck is an accident waiting to happen. Schwartz's D fell to earth with only one contributor going down. I can only imagine how his D would look like if he had the 2015 injury string, or even half of those guys got hurt. I also think that Spikes & Searcy were very critical to the D, and Brown & Bradham would have been equally exposed this year.

 

3 - I mostly blame Rex's exuberance for the defensive fall off, but his players did a lot to contribute. Yeah, they all read the headlines and thought that the top defensive ranking was in the bag. That leads to lazy organization and preparation.

 

But look at how the narrative changed. Early on, Rex was getting slammed for running his own system when everyone "knew" that he should have been running Schwartz's defense. Now people are grudgingly admitting that he ran a hybrid and it failed.

 

I also don't think that the D needs a serious overhaul. I fully agree that a true NT is needed, and Rex will get him. Add in a few grizzled vets and they should be back to form.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Haven't seen this posted. Have been quiet the past couple days, so if it's been out there (published on 1/23) please ignore.

 

I posted it in another thread, but it may actually warrant its own.

 

RE: Scheme blends and Rex's philosophy vs. Schwartz and where 2015 went wrong defensively:

 

http://cover1.net/news/2016/1/22/mergedsystems

 

This is an interesting article. It drove me nuts to read because it took forever to load with the big graphic files but...

 

He makes a case that Rex did indeed try to blend schemes somewhat. The points he doesn't address are the things we all saw:

-defensive substitutions rushing on and off the field with no time if the play was changed at the LOS

-defensive players not set before the snap

 

I guess in my mind, seeing that Rex may indeed have tried to blend schemes for the Pats games doesn't change how I feel about Rex's D. For one thing, the Schwartz D was about its least effective against the Pats. So if they're so important as Rex puffed it up, why pick that game to blend something that didn't work?

 

More importantly, there's blending and blending. Chicken wings are delicious. Chocolate chocolate-chip cream cheese cupcakes are delicious. Now you could probably blend in elements of both effectively - cream cheese might be tasty to smooth out a sharp blue cheese dip, a little chocolate in a spicy,savory sauce is a Mexican tradition. But nobody with functioning neurons would melt chocolate chips to spread over their Buffalo wings or put hot sauce and garlic in the cupcakes. That's cooking, Retatta-style.

 

So if Rex indeed tried to blend the wide-9, pressure D, why did he keep with the complex terminology and the umpteen substitutions? That's about as sensible as putting the hot sauce and garlic in the cupcakes, and if you know a bit about cooking you can predict the results.

 

 

Well, it looks like the same opinions remain unswayed in spite of thorough evidence to the contrary.

 

It's some evidence (thorough for 1 game) that Rex indeed did try to blend systems, that wasn't just an empty excuse. Whether he blended them in a sensible and theoretically effective way is still open to question, as is his ability/decision to make changes for subsequent games when he saw how the Pats shredded his Chocolate-Dipped Chicken Wing abomination and knew every team we'd play was taking notes.

 

Peace out.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Anyone who saw the New England game knows Rex is lying. That defense was nothing like last season's, despite the fact it had the same personnel. He's either, yes, lying or has no clue what last year's excellent defense was all about. In either case, I don't want him as the Bills' coach as that's only the tip of Rex's iceberg.

[dpberr]

My problem with the Rex D

 

Plays getting called in late

 

Last second substitutions

 

Leaving the players confused and poor discipline for penalties

 

 

 

+1. That's all coaching.

 

IMO, the league knows both the Schwartz and Ryan defenses. They are two guys, for better or worse, that believe in their system so much that they won't change it. Ever.

 

It's easy to beat with enough time and experience.

 

Defense today is all about disguise, stealth and misdirection. Quarterbacks are way too smart, way too good to play the exact same defense every week and hope your talent gets the job done.

[GunnerBill]

 

1 - That's the fun game of playing hypotheticals of where this defense would have been with Schwartz still in charge, and my view is that it would have been worse than Rex's D. They definitely would have generated more QB pressures, but I think they would have given up more yards and not certain that they would have gotten more turnovers. I think the violent pass rush would have been equally neutered by the offensive designs that we saw this year. To me, the 2014 defense was more of a flash in the pan than something that could have been sustained, kind of liked Schwartz's career.

 

2 - The injuries to Bills D were fairly random, Kyle got rolled up and Carrington got stepped on. You also constantly admit that Aaron's neck is an accident waiting to happen. Schwartz's D fell to earth with only one contributor going down. I can only imagine how his D would look like if he had the 2015 injury string, or even half of those guys got hurt. I also think that Spikes & Searcy were very critical to the D, and Brown & Bradham would have been equally exposed this year.

 

3 - I mostly blame Rex's exuberance for the defensive fall off, but his players did a lot to contribute. Yeah, they all read the headlines and thought that the top defensive ranking was in the bag. That leads to lazy organization and preparation.

 

But look at how the narrative changed. Early on, Rex was getting slammed for running his own system when everyone "knew" that he should have been running Schwartz's defense. Now people are grudgingly admitting that he ran a hybrid and it failed.

 

I also don't think that the D needs a serious overhaul. I fully agree that a true NT is needed, and Rex will get him. Add in a few grizzled vets and they should be back to form.

 

Oh look who has turned this from a defense of Rex to a criticism of Schwartz based purely on hypotheticals...... again.....

 

As for the narrative early on - there was criticism of elements of his defense but I, for one, never wanted Rex Ryan to run Jim Schwartz's defense. Nor did he ever run Schwartz's defense despite what he claims. He ran a hybrid mess for the most part. I am not a fan of Rex Ryan's defensive scheme (I've set out my reasoning for believing that the league is moving on from the 46 style defense) but that is the scheme he is best at coaching so that is the scheme I want him to run. I've been consistent on that throughout.

[Malazan]

yeah, it is. i tried reading the article. it is that simple.

 

it is a simple article without any enlightenment. it has simple conclusions and only snap shots.

 

For a simple article, it's shocking that you would be able to produce anything close to it to back up your viewpoint. Feel free to prove me wrong though.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

nfl.com uses the Total Defense metric. It is a combination of various stats that they use to rank.

 

So what are those various stats that they use to rank? When I go to NFL, the Total Defense is followed by (YPG).

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

So what are those various stats that they use to rank? When I go to NFL, the Total Defense is followed by (YPG).

I was specifically talking about ESPN's stats, which seem to directly coincide with yards (If you go to ESPN's NFL Stats page there is a link under the team stats section that says 'Total Defense' which returns the defenses sorted by yards). However, you could make an argument that both their yard rankings and PPG rankings were skewed by their QB's tendency to turn the ball over. Consistently short fields for opposing offenses tend to lead to fewer yard totals and higher point totals.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

Of course it's clear to you. You roundly reject any/all evidence to the contrary.

 

Wait, the article you linked presented some evidence that Rex did, indeed, blend elements of the Schwartz D into his D at times. The article makes a good case that in fact, he's not lying there, he did.

 

The article does not make a case or present evidence that, blended or not, Rex didn't "ruin a good thing" (the results say he did) or that in his blend, he didn't choose the worst elements of both.

 

 

Agree with that. The point is, however, that teams didn't throw 2 second passes against us when Schwartz was here. They did this year because of what Schwartz did last year. There is no defense that can get sacks against 2 second passes.

 

Huh, what did Denver do?

[boyst]

 

For a simple article, it's shocking that you would be able to produce anything close to it to back up your viewpoint. Feel free to prove me wrong though.

that Rex is a terrible coach with this talent which has proven itself.

That rex cannot find ways to use 3 elite DL and 1 great talent on DL.

That he can't salvage at least mediocrity from our LB's

That he was in over his head

 

It makes absolutely no difference what Rex tried. Trying is the first step toward failure - homer j Simpson.

 

Rex's efforts and lack of proficiency using such modifications to what he felt was no working only proves that we did not get better.

 

How did we get better from week 1 until 17 on defense? We didn't. No matter what Rex tried he simply didn't do the right things.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

GG brings up a good point. Teams realized what the Bills did last year and how well the fearsome foursome rushed the passer and how many sacks we got. In the first game of the year, the Colts played us fairly vanilla and ran their regular offense. We did well and Luck was pretty much a non factor.

 

The second game was the turning point of the season. Belichick and Brady made sure the front four was not going to hurt him. They threw pretty much every pass within two seconds. There was zero chance even Schwqartz's defense was going to get any sacks against that offense. Rex made a monumental strategic error by not pressing and the Pats caught all kinds of short passes, Lewis killed us and we looked back on our heels.

 

The third game the Dolphins, stupidly, just played their regular offense and Tannehill would drop back and look around and again we played pretty well and won the game.

 

The fourth game, against another smart coach and QB, Eli Manning threw virtually every pass quickly. There was no time for a rush and again we were carved up by a short passing game especially because Rex decided to take OBJ out of the game.

 

From then on, pretty much every team threw quick passes against us. The front four got more and more frustrated. Injuries mounted, and we didn't improve until late.

 

But the fact is, Schwartz's defense was not going to be able to get sacks against Brady or Eli any more than Rex's did, and we shut down the two guys that tried to step back and throw. It wasn't until the Bengals game, an undefeated team with a treendous offense and line at that point in the season, who started out throwing very quick, that we couldn't mount any rush.

And Dalton stepped back and had all day to throw

 

Kelly, try to look at what you just wrote from the POV of an external, football literate reader.

 

You are saying that NE designed a blueprint to beat the D Rex was fielding, and Rex failed to adjust such that the rest of the season, smart teams used that blueprint against us.

 

In other words, you are saying that in the continual chess match that is football, Rex Ryan could only play checkers all season.

 

If that's not what you think you're saying, please explain.

How did we get better from week 1 until 17 on defense? We didn't. No matter what Rex tried he simply didn't do the right things.

 

I disagree with this, a bit. I thought we played better D week 16 & 17.

The players commented on several changes:

1) simplifying - fewer schemes, fewer substitutions

2) pre-game, asking them if there was anything they weren't comfortable with, and take it out if so

3) during the game, asking their input on several key plays

We had better YPG than we'd had in the 5 previous games, more TO, and gave up fewer points.

 

Statistically, of course, one can't support that the final 2 games represent a clear turning point - we did have similar games scattered throughout the season. One can also raise the objection that we were playing against a depleted Cowboys offense and against a QB (Fitz) whose tendencies some of the guys knew very well and could fool at a couple of key points.

 

In terms of hope for the future, one can not know if Rex regarded the last 2 games as necessary changes to make on D going forward, or as a stop-gap bandaid to improve the close to the season and avoid being hurled like a spoiled weiner into a trash-truck headed for Cheektowaga

Edited January 26, 2016 by Hopeful

[boyst]

Kelly, try to look at what you just wrote from the POV of an external, football literate reader.

 

You are saying that NE designed a blueprint to beat the D Rex was fielding, and Rex failed to adjust such that the rest of the season, smart teams used that blueprint against us.

 

In other words, you are saying that in the continual chess match that is football, Rex Ryan could only play checkers all season.

 

If that's not what you think you're saying, please explain.

no, you see it was Mario's fault!

 

Rex supporters try so hard and fail so much harder. Rex didn't change anything and didn't even make things worse. He just failed

Kelly, try to look at what you just wrote from the POV of an external, football literate reader.

 

You are saying that NE designed a blueprint to beat the D Rex was fielding, and Rex failed to adjust such that the rest of the season, smart teams used that blueprint against us.

 

In other words, you are saying that in the continual chess match that is football, Rex Ryan could only play checkers all season.

 

If that's not what you think you're saying, please explain.

 

 

I disagree with this, a bit. I thought we played better D week 16 & 17.

The players commented on several changes:

1) simplifying - fewer schemes, fewer substitutions

2) pre-game, asking them if there was anything they weren't comfortable with, and take it out if so

3) during the game, asking their input on several key plays

We had better YPG than we'd had in the 5 previous games, more TO, and gave up fewer points.

 

Statistically, of course, one can't support that the final 2 games represent a clear turning point - we did have similar games scattered throughout the season. One can also raise the objection that we were playing against a depleted Cowboys offense and against a QB (Fitz) whose tendencies some of the guys knew very well and could fool at a couple of key points.

the last week, specifically of the two, it looked like Hughes and several others just played ball. Hughes gave up a couple assignments for some blown schemes to play his style of football.

 

I think by week 17 and against the jets Rex just took his hands off the D and called base defenses and let the players work. This was the players making a difference. Not the coach.

 

I don't have rewind but I would like to see our formations used in week 16 and 17 to the rest of the year. I'm sure we went base d and personnel a lot. And I know we stopped trying to be cute.

[GG]

I don't have rewind but I would like to see our formations used in week 16 and 17 to the rest of the year. I'm sure we went base d and personnel a lot. And I know we stopped trying to be cute.

 

Yet that hasn't stopped you from commenting for over a month on defensive formations and how the players reacted to the changes.

[JohnC]

Agree with that. The point is, however, that teams didn't throw 2 second passes against us when Schwartz was here. They did this year because of what Schwartz did last year. There is no defense that can get sacks against 2 second passes.

The appropriate response to the quicker throws is to play tighter coverage (as many are saying). Teams adjust to what you do well. It's like a chess match. Whatever a team does well is going to be countered by the other coaches. That is what coaches are paid to do. It's as if Rex was surprised and befuddled because the opposition coaches countered what they had a history of doing.

 

Rex was a HC with the Jets for six years. So obviously he was familiar with the roster of the Bills, a divisional opponent, when he joined the Bills. He had an offseason and a preseason to assess his roster and get to know the players. He certainly had a notion what each player on the defense was capable of from a physical and mental standpoint. Yet it seems that he was surprised by how the defense responded to what he wanted to do.

 

As you and others have said Rex did a poor job on the defensive side of the ball. There is no other way to judge his performance. You don't have to be a brilliant strategist to play tighter coverage if the qb is going to quickly get rid of the ball. How about exercising some common sense? If Rex didn't do a good job coming up with a good game plan for each particular game then how does one expect him to make smart game day adjustments as the game unfolds? How is it ever smart to take what your best players do exceptionally well (Mario and Dareus) and put them in a position where they can't thrive? The mistake Rex made is that he focused more on what he wanted to do instead of focusing on what his players do well. Coaching matters!

 

The Rex that the Bills hired is the Rex that they got. That is what is so infuriating.

Edited January 26, 2016 by JohnC

[John from Riverside]

My problem with the Rex D

 

Plays getting called in late

 

Last second substitutions

 

Leaving the players confused and poor discipline for penalties

 

The Bills do not have the cap space to rebuild the defense to fit Rex's system let alone re-sign key players

 

The last game against the Jets who needed that win , the D looked good despite injuries, so I give Rex credit there

You bring up a really good point here

 

Our D looked pretty good in that last jets game.......they looked organized...they didnt committ penalties.....they did it despite a lot of injured players

 

the jets had all hands on deck....needed that game to stay alive....and could not beat us

 

What was different?

 

This is STRICTLY my opinion but I think Dennis Thurman has been a real problem all year......for some reason D calls are late gettiing to the field....its Rex D....but Thurman was running it.....Thurman has had success in the capacity he is now in the past......and you have the twins running the D now with the Ryans.

 

Perhaps communication issues now go by by

[thewildrabbit]

Another thread about the defense from fans who want to keep making excuses for the severe 2015 defensive regression. In my mind there is no explainable excuse for the lack of QB pressures, sacks, hits on opposing QB's other then pure ineptitude by this new HC. Its what happens when you hire a 4-12 coach.

 

The only season the Bills had less sacks (21) in 2015 then in the entire 50 year history of the team was in a strike year. To the fans that think that is OK and sacks don't mean all that much. Tell that to this years sack leading Denver Broncos with 52 sacks and last years Bills had 54 sacks. Mike Pettine's D in 2013 had 57 sacks.

 

First, when Ryan says he merged the two defenses he is outright lying and all any fan need do is re watch the game to see the D linemen dropping into coverage while playing gap contain. Plus, the secondary looked like they were in a prevent defense from the start of the game by playing 10-15 yards off the line of scrimmage.

 

The 2015 defense was built specifically to rush the passer with the front four and it looked like they did everything except rush the passer.

 

 

At some point I think all Bills fans will come to realize what Jet fans already know. That Rex Ryan is a blowhard who makes promises he can't keep, and then blames someone else or something else for his failings. Even "IF" Ryan manages to build a top ten defense by changing over to his 3-4 scheme (which might take 3-4 years). I highly doubt he will ever field a team that can contend for the division title much less a SB championship.

[boyst]

 

Yet that hasn't stopped you from commenting for over a month on defensive formations and how the players reacted to the changes.

that's a funny way to pit it! I'm on my phone so I can't make the strange faces.

 

Either way, I've seen enough of the systems and schemes he has used which seem to go against our strengths and rely too much on LB's that simply can't give what he needs.

 

It is getting harder and harder each year to keep investing so much in defense when this is becoming more and more an offensive league.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I was specifically talking about ESPN's stats, which seem to directly coincide with yards (If you go to ESPN's NFL Stats page there is a link under the team stats section that says 'Total Defense' which returns the defenses sorted by yards). However, you could make an argument that both their yard rankings and PPG rankings were skewed by their QB's tendency to turn the ball over. Consistently short fields for opposing offenses tend to lead to fewer yard totals and higher point totals.

 

Right. So here's Hopeful's easy-peasy "flyby" defense evaluation.

 

1. Look at both YPG and PPG. On a really top D, they match up.

2. If they don't match up, look at T/G (takeaway/giveaway) rank. A low number may indicate exactly as you say - skewing by an O or ST that tends to put the D in a bind by turnovers. At the least, further investigation is called for.

 

Here's an example using Ryan's time as the Raven's DC (2005-2009) we see that the year he took over (2005) the team's D rank dropped from a matching 6th in the NFL in 2004, to 5th on yds but only 10th on points. Look at T/G: 28th in the league. Yoicks! Looking under the hood, we see that Kyle Boller, 2005 QB, indeed threw a lot of picks and fumbled a lot. But waitaminute. He threw almost as many picks and fumbled even more in 2004 (6th in the league both PPG and YPG) than in 2005. So yeah, he did put them in the spot, but that clearly doesn't tell the whole story.

 

So we look at 2006, #1 in the league by PPG, YPG, and T/G. Kyle Boller, Steve McNair, and Troy Smith combined for even more picks and fumbles. So again, that clearly doesn't tell the whole story. They were great in spite of having Butterfingers By Committee under center. 2007, we see a big disparity in PPG (22) vs YPG (6) but a horrid T/G rank, last in the league. So is that the explanation? Boller and McNair combined for 14 picks and 13 fumbles. 2008, again a strong year for Ryan's D. #3 on points, #2 on yds, and #3 on T/G. Flacco threw 12 picks and fumbled 11 times.

 

Are 2 picks and 2 fumbles difference really responsible for the difference between #3 and #22 in PPG given up on D?

 

The point is, at times, Rex fielded a stout D despite uninspired and sometimes "overly giving" QB play. And at times he didn't.

 

IMHO, and it's just MHO, "the QB killed us with turnovers" is a conveniently believable excuse. Yeah, maybe one year the QB only fumbled or threw picks inside their own 10 yd line. Then the next, the QB only threw picks at the other end of the field when the D could shut them down and get off. <==== sarcasm

 

What I think is that the Rex defense depends on confusing the QB and setting up picks by a combination of blitzes and simulated pressure, and depends upon some very specific ingredients for success - several smart, ball-hawking DB, top-notch shut-down CB play, and one or two mensa-level ILB who can get everyone lined up or even call the plays. And it's not just enough to have them on the field, they've got to be healthy and playing at their peak. These are the ingredients he walked into in Baltimore, and when he had them in NY, his D was good. When he didn't, Oh Well.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Hopeful

[GG]

 

Oh look who has turned this from a defense of Rex to a criticism of Schwartz based purely on hypotheticals...... again.....

 

As for the narrative early on - there was criticism of elements of his defense but I, for one, never wanted Rex Ryan to run Jim Schwartz's defense. Nor did he ever run Schwartz's defense despite what he claims. He ran a hybrid mess for the most part. I am not a fan of Rex Ryan's defensive scheme (I've set out my reasoning for believing that the league is moving on from the 46 style defense) but that is the scheme he is best at coaching so that is the scheme I want him to run. I've been consistent on that throughout.

 

From my basic understanding, Rex doesn't run the variant of the 4-6. If anything, Schwartz has a better lineage to Buddy's 4-6 than does Rex.

 

I don't see how one can evaluate Rex without offering at least a hypothetical of how the defense would perform without Rex, and in this case, Schwartz is a good measuring stick because the defense played well. But my theory is that last year was an aberration due to the combination of nearly all positive factors - simple attacking defense, solid MLB play, no injuries and familiarity with NFC North.

 

People can roast Rex for ruining a great defensive unit, yet the same core players comprised were on the team for the last 4 seasons, and they were certainly not dominant in 2012, 2013, and 2015. That's why I went back to review a lot of the 2014 games to see what was the difference, and after watching the All-22s is what drove me to the conclusion that Schwartz's unit is greatly over rated, and would have been in store for a huge let down this year, and that happened to occur on Rex's watch.

 

Rex is not without blame on this, but I do believe that by the time he recognized that he had a major problem with the defense, it was too late to change things up.