Beerball Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 http://nyt4thdownbot.com Pretty clear statistics says Belichick made the right call, even if it didn't work out. two weeks in a row in lose & go home games it turns out that isn't the case.
boyst Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 The broncos did what we have done before to beat the patriots. Execute tough assignments on the DL to take advantage of anything and everything and get to Brady. Let your DB's close everything down. Play to canvas the field. Brady won't throw to traffic like Manning will
dulles Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 I have never seen Brady look so weathered. His arms were all taped/bandaged. His ankles were taped up like balloons. He was often slow to get up. I have seen him take more abuse in the past half of this season than the rest of his career combined. That cant continue on his body pushing 40 no matter how many green drinks he has. I swear, I think his uniform got dirty like 5 times prior to 2008. I think it is also clear that at this point (before offseason), the Patriots, even with Brady are ripe for the picking without Gronkowski and to some extent Edelman. I would predict that Brady has one or two more good runs in him unless they can somehow construct a top offensive line. On paper, the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills should be able to bring the heat 6 times. Don't forget the NFC West - they have some pretty good pass rushers too. This next year could be long for TB*
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 (edited) Which they take into account in the details in each call. For example: http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play/201601240071213 There are very few situations I personally wouldn't go for it on fourth and one. The Patriots were averaging 4 yards per offensive play in that game, including incompletions and sacks. Yes, Denver's defense was playing excellent but it was still more likely than not that they would pick up a first down. I'm thrilled they didn't but it was the correct call. Even with getting manhandled the Patriots we're still averaging four yards per offensive play and they needed one. I get all of that. The 3 was close to a sure thing, and they needed it because it prevented them from having to rely on a less than 50-50 proposition even if they did manage to get the first and score - a 2P conversion. Teams were 45-94 on 2P conversion tries this year - 47.9 percent (NE didn't convert any). It wasn't just about getting the TD there; it was about getting the TD AND the 2P conversion against the #1 defense, and a defense that didn't have to defend against the run because they knew the Pats would never rely on their atrocious running game in that situation. Take the 3P "conversion" there (which was what the FG effectively was) and then try to get the 6 on the next possession. Denver couldn't move the ball, after all - NE was going to get it back. Edited January 25, 2016 by dave mcbride
P51 Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 Yes! Pass rushers from both sides and LBs who can cover. Dont forget 3 CB's who can cover, Ward at safety played as well as could be expected and as a unit did a phenomenal job on Gronk and Edelman. That was a clinic in secondary play that is being over shadowed by the absurd performance of the front 6, who played lights out as mentioned! Lot of outside the box coverages moving/imixing guys around and a great game plan called by Wade Phillips who utilized all his personnel as well as I have ever seen, against Brady. Belichick, went for the win and outside of Gronkowski going all superman in the 4th quarter the Pats offense nothing going for them all game. I dont think he lost the game any more than Denver's defense won the game, I dont know that he had much of a choice given the flow of the game in terms of going for it in the 4th, I thought it was repeatedly the right call.
dulles Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 I couldn't believe they didn't kick the FG. It was dumb. Why play for a tie? What does their OL look like going forward? I know they had some injuries. If healthy and exclusive of FA and draft, is that line still bad? My favorite play was when they put in an extra lineman and Miller just ran around him to hit Brady. I don't think they were playing for the tie. I think Hoodie was going for the win, with tie-insurance. You go for it on fourth down with 6 to go. You are banking on getting the ball back at least once, maybe twice. If you convert the fourth down, you have a chance to score 6, try for 2, and still come back to win on a FG late. I did not have a problem with the call at all...especially since it failed! But, I was not at all comfortable that the game was over at that point. TB* is never out, no matter how down he's been. He and BB truly are a remarkable pair. I still despise it when the win, but they deserve respect for always being there at the end. BTW, I actually saw BB say Thank You to an official after he was trying to get a time out yesterday...Maybe he is human!
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 I don't think they were playing for the tie. I think Hoodie was going for the win, with tie-insurance. You go for it on fourth down with 6 to go. You are banking on getting the ball back at least once, maybe twice. If you convert the fourth down, you have a chance to score 6, try for 2, and still come back to win on a FG late. I did not have a problem with the call at all...especially since it failed! But, I was not at all comfortable that the game was over at that point. TB* is never out, no matter how down he's been. He and BB truly are a remarkable pair. I still despise it when the win, but they deserve respect for always being there at the end. BTW, I actually saw BB say Thank You to an official after he was trying to get a time out yesterday...Maybe he is human! As I say above, by the numbers the 2P conversion is a less than 50-50 proposition. I didn't like the move.
26CornerBlitz Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 I get all of that. The 3 was close to a sure thing, and they needed it because it prevented them from having to rely on a less than 50-50 proposition even if they did manage to get the first and score - a 2P conversion. Teams were 45-94 on 2P conversion tries this year - 47.9 percent (NE didn't convert any). It wasn't just about getting the TD there; it was about getting the TD AND the 2P conversion against the #1 defense, and a defense that didn't have to defend against the run because they knew the Pats would never rely on their atrocious running game in that situation. Take the 3P "conversion" there (which was what the FG effectively was) and then try to get the 6 on the next possession. Denver couldn't move the ball, after all - NE was going to get it back. I agree with your take.
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 I agree with your take. Just went through all of Denver's games this year. Including yesterday, teams were 0-4 on 2P conversions against them this season. Not a high percentage play, to put it mildly.
Wraith Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 As I say above, by the numbers the 2P conversion is a less than 50-50 proposition. I didn't like the move. Wow, a whole lot of misunderstandings occurring in this thread. The Patriots weren't playing for the tie nor were they depending on the two point conversion. Six minutes to go, down by eight. You can't plan on having a third possesion, so it's a TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG. Either way, you need a TD. This drive was the deepest New England hand managed to drive on their own all game, as far they know it was the last best chance to get a TD. When New England beat the Giants earlier this year we saw what happens when your 2:00 drill only has to get in field goal range rather than score a TD. If they score a TD on that drive, then they go for two and they're either tied with 5:00 left or down less than field goal with timeouts still available. The Patriots made the right decision, it just didn't work out. Happens all the time.
starrymessenger Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 Meh. He's gonna coach them to 12 wins and a playoff berth next year. It ain't over. (unfortunately) I must agree. Peyton is done. Brady not so much. Switch QBs yesterday and Denver wins by 21 points.
bisonbrigade Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 Don't forget the last game of the season when they were working on their "running" game and were defeated by the Dolphins.
nucci Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 (edited) Wow, a whole lot of misunderstandings occurring in this thread. The Patriots weren't playing for the tie nor were they depending on the two point conversion. Six minutes to go, down by eight. You can't plan on having a third possesion, so it's a TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG. Either way, you need a TD. This drive was the deepest New England hand managed to drive on their own all game, as far they know it was the last best chance to get a TD. When New England beat the Giants earlier this year we saw what happens when your 2:00 drill only has to get in field goal range rather than score a TD. If they score a TD on that drive, then they go for two and they're either tied with 5:00 left or down less than field goal with timeouts still available. The Patriots made the right decision, it just didn't work out. Happens all the time. They didn't....down by 8 with 6 minutes left....you kick the FG .....now within a TD to win.....very simple...It turns out they didn't make the right decision because they lost. Edited January 25, 2016 by nucci
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 (edited) Wow, a whole lot of misunderstandings occurring in this thread. The Patriots weren't playing for the tie nor were they depending on the two point conversion. Six minutes to go, down by eight. You can't plan on having a third possesion, so it's a TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG. Either way, you need a TD. This drive was the deepest New England hand managed to drive on their own all game, as far they know it was the last best chance to get a TD. When New England beat the Giants earlier this year we saw what happens when your 2:00 drill only has to get in field goal range rather than score a TD. If they score a TD on that drive, then they go for two and they're either tied with 5:00 left or down less than field goal with timeouts still available. The Patriots made the right decision, it just didn't work out. Happens all the time. The problem with this logic is that it was actually 4th down. Not only was it 4th down, it was 4th and 2, which meant no sneak option. And they couldn't run the ball at all, so a rush wasn't going to happen. In that situation, things get simplified for the D - rush the passer like hell against their terrible tackles and jump the short routes. Which is what they did. Even on 3rd and 2 with those lousy runners and blockers, you've gotta protect against the run. Not so on 4th down. The Pats can only pass the ball there. The play didn't have a chance, Sometimes it's better to take the safe move and kick the FG -- a near-sure thing. When you don't have even a semblance of a running game, the calculus changes. Don't forget the last game of the season when they were working on their "running" game and were defeated by the Dolphins. Their rushers yesterday (Boldin and Jackson) were glacially slow and had absolutely no quickness. Painful to watch, actually. Edited January 25, 2016 by dave mcbride
49er Fan Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG I agree with most others here - the way Denver was defending on 4th down you kick the FG and go for the TD after getting the ball back. Manning could barely throw the ball 10 yards in the 4th; NE got the ball back with over two minutes remaining.
TUBSTER Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 Don't forget going to Miami to practice their run game. The complete disrespect for the fish lost them homefield advantage. Love seeing Tommy knocked around. He got hit so many times it was amazing.
Marty McFly Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 You could also argue going for it with 6 and change was an error. Kick the field goal there and they probably win on their last possession That was in my opinion his game costing mistake, the way the rest of the game played out if he wuda took the fied goal they would have had a better chance of winning, not ust going to over time
Utah John Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 That was one of the worst QB'd conference championship games I've ever witnessed. Meanwhile Cam looked unstoppable. I think Denver's D keeps them in it for a while, but Carolina's D is no joke either, and I think Denver struggles to score more than 17 points, and loses by at least 10. I don't think Denver will even get the 17 unless Carolina gifts a pick six. I respect Denver's D and Wade's craftiness, but I don't think they can keep Cam entirely under wraps. Panthers 24-10.
Mr. WEO Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 (edited) Wow, a whole lot of misunderstandings occurring in this thread. The Patriots weren't playing for the tie nor were they depending on the two point conversion. Six minutes to go, down by eight. You can't plan on having a third possesion, so it's a TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG. Either way, you need a TD. This drive was the deepest New England hand managed to drive on their own all game, as far they know it was the last best chance to get a TD. When New England beat the Giants earlier this year we saw what happens when your 2:00 drill only has to get in field goal range rather than score a TD. If they score a TD on that drive, then they go for two and they're either tied with 5:00 left or down less than field goal with timeouts still available. The Patriots made the right decision, it just didn't work out. Happens all the time. Of course you can. The pats D was killing the Broncos. After Denver scored their second TD one minute into the second Q, NE forced 7 punts and allowed only 2 FGs. You have to take the 3 points and let your D get you the ball back (which they did two more times before NE scored. Edited January 25, 2016 by Mr. WEO
Maddog69 Posted January 25, 2016 Posted January 25, 2016 You could also argue going for it with 6 and change was an error. Kick the field goal there and they probably win on their last possession That's exactly what I was saying at the time. I think that was a panic move. Bottom line though is that the botched PAT doomed them. If that was made, the simply would've needed a PAT after the third TD to tie the game and probably go to OT.
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