Fergy's Op Ed on mobile QB's and their career trajectories

[FireChan]

Editor's note: As many of you invariably know, BringBackFergy has one of the sharpest football minds on TBD. The following post was sent to me by PM, and I thought it pertinent to share with the rest of the board. So as a disclaimer before the disclaimer, everything posted below this paragraph has been penned by Fergy and he is the sole owner of his words and ideas. Any prolonged disagreements may be sent directly to Fergy via PM or emailed to him at BringBackFergy@rocketmail.net. Thank you for your understanding.

 

"DISCLAIMER: This topic is in no way meant to denigrate or overly praise Tyrod Taylor as an NFL QB. If your major takeaway from this post is that TT sucks or that TT is great, and you deem it necessary to respond with snark aimed towards the opposite viewpoint, please ring your call button and Tommy will come back there and hit you in the head with a tack hammer, because you are an idiot.

 

Let's begin. As an FYI, many posters already know this song and dance and won't get anything out of it, but with a boring offseason looming ahead of us, I thought it worthwhile to write up a little something discussing mobile QB's, their success (and failure) in the NFL, and perhaps shine some light on what we may be able to expect in the 2016 season. If you don't find it worthwhile, please feel free to let me know.

 

This topic is based on the premise of "mobile" QB's and the NFL. The major QB's I feel fit into this discussion is Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor and RG3. I am not including Russell Wilson, because, while the very definition mobile, I believe he emerged from college as a very gifted passer and QB. Much more than the other 3. And I don't believe his own trajectory applies at all with the other 3.

 

Now my own definition of "mobile." You may say, "Fergy, you moron, Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers are both very mobile QB's in their own right, topic failure, I hate your guts." But I disagree with that premise. For the purposes of this discussion, I consider the QB's we are talking about capable of carrying a team to victory with their legs. An example to illustrate this point is the Tennessee game earlier this season. Cam, RG3 and Tyrod are the only ones capable of making that 3rd and long conversion with their legs, IMO. Alex Smith and Rodgers, while enjoying the benefits of speed and their ability to takeoff, do not possess that ability.

 

Finally, we get to the meat. As you look at the first season of RG3, Cam and TT, you see many similarities. All 3 QB's emerged in their first year explosively. They had their ups and downs as rookies or first time starters, but their play was very encouraging to star-craved fanbases. They varied with W-L records, with Cam only managing 6-10 while putting up ridiculous numbers, RG3 at the other end with 10-6 and a playoff berth (and a decimation of Seattle prior to injury), and TT right in the middle with 8-8 (technically 8-6 but I'm not going back to see RG3's record because he also missed time, sue me.)

 

However, both RG3 and Cam came into their second years and struggled to a varying degree. For Cam, his total TD number took a huge hit and his completion percentage dropped. He failed to replicate his great rookie performance his second year, but by no means could you call his second season a "failure." Meanwhile, RG3 experienced a catastrophic drop. He doubled his INT%, could not run anywhere close to as effectively, and failed to replicate his previous success.

 

You know the rest of the story already. RG3 continued to decline and has been discarding as a has-been. Cam, after experiencing some rockiness, has emerged as a prolific passer and MVP-winner(I think). You could even extend this discussion to include mobile guys like Vince Young and Coin Kaepernick. The same trend continues to emerge. A somewhat explosive start with an eventual downtrend that they either escape, or more likely, spiral into the end their career.

 

Using these guys as a baseline, I make my prediction for TT in 2016. I predict he will be a worse QB than 2015. A Cam Newton second season "decline" is one of our best case scenarios. An RG3, Vince Young, or Kaep catastrophe would be the worse case scenario. But I do believe it will be close to one or the other and that will indicate what kind of QB he will eventually become.

 

The many causes for this kind of trajectory have been discussed. Figuring them out, keeping them in the pocket etc. etc. The one thing I do know is that there is going to be tape on TT next season, and he will be unlikely to catch teams unawares with his game and his favorite passes etc.

 

In closing, Rex Ryan was correct in campaigning for Taylor early in the preseason. Mobile QB's certainly provide a "spark" not found by most rookie or young starters. However, once things become tougher, how they respond to adversity and their reliance on their physical gifts is what separates the Cam Newton's from the RG3's."

Edited January 19, 2016 by FireChan

[John from Riverside]

DISCLAIMER: This topic is in no way meant to denigrate or overly praise Tyrod Taylor as an NFL QB. If your major takeaway from this post is that TT sucks or that TT is great, and you deem it necessary to respond with snark aimed towards the opposite viewpoint, please ring your call button and Tommy will come back there and hit you in the head with a tack hammer, because you are an idiot.

 

Let's begin. As an FYI, many posters already know this song and dance and won't get anything out of it, but with a boring offseason looming ahead of us, I thought it worthwhile to write up a little something discussing mobile QB's, their success (and failure) in the NFL, and perhaps shine some light on what we may be able to expect in the 2016 season. If you don't find it worthwhile, please feel free to let me know.

 

This topic is based on the premise of "mobile" QB's and the NFL. The major QB's I feel fit into this discussion is Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor and RG3. I am not including Russell Wilson, because, while the very definition mobile, I believe he emerged from college as a very gifted passer and QB. Much more than the other 3. And I don't believe his own trajectory applies at all with the other 3.

 

Now my own definition of "mobile." You may say, "FC, you moron, Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers are both very mobile QB's in their own right, topic failure, I hate your guts." But I disagree with that premise. For the purposes of this discussion, I consider the QB's we are talking about capable of carrying a team to victory with their legs. An example to illustrate this point is the Tennessee game earlier this season. Cam, RG3 and Tyrod are the only ones capable of making that 3rd and long conversion with their legs, IMO. Alex Smith and Rodgers, while enjoying the benefits of speed and their ability to takeoff, do not possess that ability.

 

Finally, we get to the meat. As you look at the first season of RG3, Cam and TT, you see many similarities. All 3 QB's emerged in their first year explosively. They had their ups and downs as rookies or first time starters, but their play was very encouraging to star-craved fanbases. They varied with W-L records, with Cam only managing 6-10 while putting up ridiculous numbers, RG3 at the other end with 10-6 and a playoff berth (and a decimation of Seattle prior to injury), and TT right in the middle with 8-8 (technically 8-6 but I'm not going back to see RG3's record because he also missed time, sue me.)

 

However, both RG3 and Cam came into their second years and struggled to a varying degree. For Cam, his total TD number took a huge hit and his completion percentage dropped. He failed to replicate his great rookie performance his second year, but by no means could you call his second season a "failure." Meanwhile, RG3 experienced a catastrophic drop. He doubled his INT%, could not run anywhere close to as effectively, and failed to replicate his previous success.

 

You know the rest of the story already. RG3 continued to decline and has been discarding as a has-been. Cam, after experiencing some rockiness, has emerged as a prolific passer and MVP-winner(I think). You could even extend this discussion to include mobile guys like Vince Young and Coin Kaepernick. The same trend continues to emerge. A somewhat explosive start with an eventual downtrend that they either escape, or more likely, spiral into the end their career.

 

Using these guys as a baseline, I make my prediction for TT in 2016. I predict he will be a worse QB than 2015. A Cam Newton second season "decline" is one of our best case scenarios. An RG3, Vince Young, or Kaep catastrophe would be the worse case scenario. But I do believe it will be close to one or the other and that will indicate what kind of QB he will eventually become.

 

The many causes for this kind of trajectory have been discussed. Figuring them out, keeping them in the pocket etc. etc. The one thing I do know is that there is going to be tape on TT next season, and he will be unlikely to catch teams unawares with his game and his favorite passes etc.

 

In closing, Rex Ryan was correct in campaigning for Taylor early in the preseason. Mobile QB's certainly provide a "spark" not found by most rookie or young starters. However, once things become tougher, how they respond to adversity and their reliance on their physical gifts is what separates the Cam Newton's from the RG3's.

?

[Coach Tuesday]

Seems scientific enough. You must be surprised that your test produced exactly the result you were hoping it would.

[FireChan]

?

What's your question?

 

Seems scientific enough. You must be surprised that your test produced exactly the result you were hoping it would.

You are up for the tack hammer, I suppose.

Edited January 15, 2016 by FireChan

[BUFFALOKIE]

I don't know how it relates to your hypothesis, but T-Rod is a totally different dude from the other QBs that you define as "mobile". He seems smarter and more humble, more willing to learn and lead than Tre or Cam.

 

Fingers crossed that you are wrong.

[Virgil]

Tyrod sucks 😈

 

Sorry, but I'm just used to starting topics out like you did and people just ignoring it all together because they can't find ways to say it enough.

[Coach Tuesday]

I mean, among many other problems, you narrowly defined "mobile" to eliminate some very mobile QBs (Alex Smith had a ton of rushing yards this year), apparently based on one play from the Titans game that defines mobility for you. And then you chose to focus on two recent examples of players who are much different than Taylor in numerous respects, and used their second year performances to make a prediction about Tyrod, without any real analysis of context, similarities, or differences... this just isn't the least bit scientific, and to call it a "treatise" is pedantic and frankly ludicrous.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Coach Tuesday

[Gray Beard]

It all depends on whether or not the mobile QB gets hurt.

Flutie somehow managed not to get significantly hurt.

RG3 got hurt.

 

TT has been hurt scrambling. EJ has been hurt scrambling.

 

How they come back from getting hurt is important.

Some mobile QBs learn to be less mobile and stay in the pocket more often after they get hurt. Cam Newton, Big Ben, and others.

 

Aaron Rodgers does a lot of bootlegs. Does that make him a mobile QB?

 

The option QBs are becoming more common, especially the young ones (Mariota, Bridgewater). Are they mobile QBs?

 

Will TT get hurt again? Will he learn not to run so much? Time will tell.

[WotAGuy]

At least he used more words than usual.

[FireChan]

I mean, among many other problems, you narrowly defined "mobile" to eliminate some very mobile QBs (Alex Smith had a ton of rushing yards this year), apparently based on one play from the Titans game that defines mobility for you. And then you chose to focus on two recent examples of players who are much different than Taylor in numerous respects, and used their second year performances to make a prediction about Tyrod, without any real analysis of context, similarities, or differences... this just isn't the least bit scientific, and to call it a "treatise" is pedantic and frankly ludicrous.

See? How hard was it to actually have some substance?

 

I mean, among many other problems, you narrowly defined "mobile" to eliminate some very mobile QBs (Alex Smith had a ton of rushing yards this year), apparently based on one play from the Titans game that defines mobility for you.

 

I thought my definition was more than fair. I don't feel that Smith ever relied on his physical gits as much as my other examples. Not to mention that he was hot garbage his first year, instead of setting the league on fire like RG3 and Cam, or being quietly very successful like TT.

 

And I used the Titans play to illustrate what I meant as "mobile." Do you contend Smith has a very similar chance of converting that play as rookie RG3, Cam or TT? I disagree. TT, RG3 and Cam took over games as runners. I never saw that Alex Smith in his early years. Hell, he didn't eclipse 200 yards rushing until he went to KC.

 

And then you chose to focus on two recent examples of players who are much different than Taylor in numerous respects, and used their second year performances to make a prediction about Tyrod, without any real analysis of context, similarities, or differences...

 

They are different in respects, sure. List them and argue them. Give me quantifiable reasons. I focused on the two recent only because IMO, they represent the extremes of the spectrum. Pray tell, what "context" am I missing? The key similarity was reliance on physical gifts FYI.

 

to call it a "treatise" is pedantic and frankly ludicrous.

 

Kisses.

Tyrod sucks

 

Sorry, but I'm just used to starting topics out like you did and people just ignoring it all together because they can't find ways to say it enough.

The difference is I have a roaming fanbase.

[John from Riverside]

See? How hard was it to actually have some substance?

 

I mean, among many other problems, you narrowly defined "mobile" to eliminate some very mobile QBs (Alex Smith had a ton of rushing yards this year), apparently based on one play from the Titans game that defines mobility for you.

 

I thought my definition was more than fair. I don't feel that Smith ever relied on his physical gits as much as my other examples. Not to mention that he was hot garbage his first year, instead of setting the league on fire like RG3 and Cam, or being quietly very successful like TT.

 

And I used the Titans play to illustrate what I meant as "mobile." Do you contend Smith has a very similar chance of converting that play as rookie RG3, Cam or TT? I disagree. TT, RG3 and Cam took over games as runners. I never saw that Alex Smith in his early years. Hell, he didn't eclipse 200 yards rushing until he went to KC.

 

And then you chose to focus on two recent examples of players who are much different than Taylor in numerous respects, and used their second year performances to make a prediction about Tyrod, without any real analysis of context, similarities, or differences...

 

They are different in respects, sure. List them and argue them. Give me quantifiable reasons. I focused on the two recent only because IMO, they represent the extremes of the spectrum. Pray tell, what "context" am I missing? The key similarity was reliance on physical gifts FYI.

 

to call it a "treatise" is pedantic and frankly ludicrous.

 

Kisses.

The difference is I have a roaming fanbase.

Your dog does not count as a fan

[Big Turk]

Russell Wilson needs to be added to the Cam, Tyrod and RG3 list. He single handedly beat us with his legs in Toronto

[Wazzu Bill]

Mike Vick?

[Maury Ballstein]

If he regresses we are doomed. With a healthy Watkins/Clay/McCoy it's gonna be hard to regress.

 

The image of 2nd pats game Tyrod is burnt into my head though. Never wanna see that again.

[bobobonators]

Russell Wilson needs to be added to the Cam, Tyrod and RG3 list. He single handedly beat us with his legs in Toronto

This. RW led the league in rushing for QB last season and has ranked near the top every season hes been in NFL. Its a no-brainer.

 

Mike Vick?

 

If you want to leave Smith/Rodgers out i can begin to understand that argument. But no way should RW be left off.

[peterpan]

TT is most like Russell Wilson t o me so I found it's strange you specifically ruled him out of this comparison. Yes RW was a more polished passer In college but TT sat and learned to be a better passer for 4 years in the pros before starting.

 

I predict that TT makes the same jump in production that RW made from year 1 to year 2. On a percentage basis that is.

[chris heff]

John Locke wrote treatises. I'm pretty sure he didn't start with his conclusion and then adjust the facts to support it. I'm also fairly sure your writing is an essay not a treatise

[BringBackFergy]

John Locke wrote treatises. I'm pretty sure he didn't start with his conclusion and then adjust the facts to support it. I'm also fairly sure your writing is an essay not a treatise

Not sure this is an essay....more like a manifesto.

 

[hondo in seattle]

DISCLAIMER: This topic is in no way meant to denigrate or overly praise Tyrod Taylor as an NFL QB. If your major takeaway from this post is that TT sucks or that TT is great, and you deem it necessary to respond with snark aimed towards the opposite viewpoint, please ring your call button and Tommy will come back there and hit you in the head with a tack hammer, because you are an idiot.

 

Let's begin. As an FYI, many posters already know this song and dance and won't get anything out of it, but with a boring offseason looming ahead of us, I thought it worthwhile to write up a little something discussing mobile QB's, their success (and failure) in the NFL, and perhaps shine some light on what we may be able to expect in the 2016 season. If you don't find it worthwhile, please feel free to let me know.

 

This topic is based on the premise of "mobile" QB's and the NFL. The major QB's I feel fit into this discussion is Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor and RG3. I am not including Russell Wilson, because, while the very definition mobile, I believe he emerged from college as a very gifted passer and QB. Much more than the other 3. And I don't believe his own trajectory applies at all with the other 3.

 

Now my own definition of "mobile." You may say, "FC, you moron, Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers are both very mobile QB's in their own right, topic failure, I hate your guts." But I disagree with that premise. For the purposes of this discussion, I consider the QB's we are talking about capable of carrying a team to victory with their legs. An example to illustrate this point is the Tennessee game earlier this season. Cam, RG3 and Tyrod are the only ones capable of making that 3rd and long conversion with their legs, IMO. Alex Smith and Rodgers, while enjoying the benefits of speed and their ability to takeoff, do not possess that ability.

 

Finally, we get to the meat. As you look at the first season of RG3, Cam and TT, you see many similarities. All 3 QB's emerged in their first year explosively. They had their ups and downs as rookies or first time starters, but their play was very encouraging to star-craved fanbases. They varied with W-L records, with Cam only managing 6-10 while putting up ridiculous numbers, RG3 at the other end with 10-6 and a playoff berth (and a decimation of Seattle prior to injury), and TT right in the middle with 8-8 (technically 8-6 but I'm not going back to see RG3's record because he also missed time, sue me.)

 

However, both RG3 and Cam came into their second years and struggled to a varying degree. For Cam, his total TD number took a huge hit and his completion percentage dropped. He failed to replicate his great rookie performance his second year, but by no means could you call his second season a "failure." Meanwhile, RG3 experienced a catastrophic drop. He doubled his INT%, could not run anywhere close to as effectively, and failed to replicate his previous success.

 

You know the rest of the story already. RG3 continued to decline and has been discarding as a has-been. Cam, after experiencing some rockiness, has emerged as a prolific passer and MVP-winner(I think). You could even extend this discussion to include mobile guys like Vince Young and Coin Kaepernick. The same trend continues to emerge. A somewhat explosive start with an eventual downtrend that they either escape, or more likely, spiral into the end their career.

 

Using these guys as a baseline, I make my prediction for TT in 2016. I predict he will be a worse QB than 2015. A Cam Newton second season "decline" is one of our best case scenarios. An RG3, Vince Young, or Kaep catastrophe would be the worse case scenario. But I do believe it will be close to one or the other and that will indicate what kind of QB he will eventually become.

 

The many causes for this kind of trajectory have been discussed. Figuring them out, keeping them in the pocket etc. etc. The one thing I do know is that there is going to be tape on TT next season, and he will be unlikely to catch teams unawares with his game and his favorite passes etc.

 

In closing, Rex Ryan was correct in campaigning for Taylor early in the preseason. Mobile QB's certainly provide a "spark" not found by most rookie or young starters. However, once things become tougher, how they respond to adversity and their reliance on their physical gifts is what separates the Cam Newton's from the RG3's.

 

Your conclusions are based on a non-random sample of two?

 

Well, I guess that nails it. No room for debate here.

Edited January 16, 2016 by hondo in seattle

[Hapless Bills Fan]

If your major takeaway from this post is that TT sucks (....) you are an idiot. I'll get back to that point...more later

 

Now my own definition of "mobile." You may say, "FC, you moron, Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers are both very mobile QB's in their own right, topic failure, I hate your guts." But I disagree with that premise. For the purposes of this discussion, I consider the QB's we are talking about capable of carrying a team to victory with their legs. An example to illustrate this point is the Tennessee game earlier this season. Cam, RG3 and Tyrod are the only ones capable of making that 3rd and long conversion with their legs, IMO. Alex Smith and Rodgers, while enjoying the benefits of speed and their ability to takeoff, do not possess that ability. I think you under-rate Rodgers scrambling abilities. When teams forget to spy him, he is indeed capable of making a 3rd and long conversion with his legs. Don't watch Alex Smith as much so can't say. And for goodness sakes, what about Russell Wilson? Do you really want to argue that he couldn't? But for the sake of argument, continue....

 

Finally, we get to the meat. As you look at the first season of RG3, Cam and TT, you see many similarities. All 3 QB's emerged in their first year explosively. They had their ups and downs as rookies or first time starters, but their play was very encouraging to star-craved fanbases. They varied with W-L records, with Cam only managing 6-10 while putting up ridiculous numbers, RG3 at the other end with 10-6 and a playoff berth (and a decimation of Seattle prior to injury), and TT right in the middle with 8-8 (technically 8-6 but I'm not going back to see RG3's record because he also missed time, sue me.) RGIII 9-6 his rookie year.

 

However, both RG3 and Cam came into their second years and struggled to a varying degree. For Cam, his total TD number took a huge hit and his completion percentage dropped. He failed to replicate his great rookie performance his second year, but by no means could you call his second season a "failure." Meanwhile, RG3 experienced a catastrophic drop. He doubled his INT%, could not run anywhere close to as effectively, and failed to replicate his previous success. RGIII was seriously injured and reinjured and his injuries handled in a questionable fashion - a point that seems highly relelvant to an attempt to generalize about "running quarterbacks". Meanwhile, what about Russell Wilson? Facts: Cam Newton 1st year 21 TD, 2nd year 19 TD. Do you really want to argue that 2 TD = huge hit? His completion percentage did drop by 2%. But by other statistical markers he improved - INTs went from 17 to 12, AY/A went from 7.2 to 7.8. I think he had a rocky start that attracted media, but pulled it together and his overall year was not in an way a "huge" drop off.

 

You know the rest of the story already. RG3 continued to decline and has been discarding as a has-been. Cam, after experiencing some rockiness, has emerged as a prolific passer and MVP-winner(I think). You could even extend this discussion to include mobile guys like Vince Young and Coin Kaepernick. The same trend continues to emerge. A somewhat explosive start with an eventual downtrend that they either escape, or more likely, spiral into the end their career. I really think you need to look up stats if you're going to make performance-based arguments.

 

Using these guys as a baseline, I make my prediction for TT in 2016. I predict he will be a worse QB than 2015. A Cam Newton second season "decline" is one of our best case scenarios. An RG3, Vince Young, or Kaep catastrophe would be the worse case scenario. But I do believe it will be close to one or the other and that will indicate what kind of QB he will eventually become.

 

So basically, your argument is:

1) ignore Russell Wilson

2) fail to mention RGIII's catastrophic mobility-hindering injuries

3) exclude other running QB who fail to meet some nebulous criteria

4) use Cam Newton's 2 TD and 2% completion decline, in the face of decreased INTs, IMPROVED passer and QBR, and 1 more win, a "huge hit".

5) claim analogous decline in his 2nd playing season for Kaep, despite the fact that he returned to the conference championship that year and overall continued to perform at a high level

 

Shenanigans. RGIII's injury is relevant. Russ Wilson and arguably Aaron Rodgers are relevant. Newton's 2nd season "decline" is only by a limited set of metrics, not looking at his overall QB performance. Ditto Kaep (in his 2nd season of NFL play, 2013) - slight decline by some metrics, but overall a highly effective and dangerous QB

 

Frankly, rather than a reasoned "treatise", this comes across far more like an attempt to say "Tyrod Taylor will Suck Next Year" and then (unsuccessfully) cherry-pick facts to support it. I don't suggest you waste electrons calling me an idiot for that conclusion - do a better and less arbitrary job of justifying yours instead.

 

Like any 2nd year QB, Taylor will lose the element of surprise, not because running QB suffer some specific (and apparently dire) career trajectory, but because there's more film to slice n dice his tendencies. He will have a 2nd year slump, or he will improve, not because of some fate of running QB but based on how effectively he improves his game and how effectively his OC wins the NFL Chess Match of move-countermove-adapt to the countermoves

 

I suspect that for trying to use DC Tom as a kind of "enforcer", his response would be...well, you know.

Edited January 16, 2016 by Hopeful