Wilkerson + Sanu

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

For those that say "we can't afford Mo, no way no how" -- I just don't see it. I threw this out before for comment, and since have gone to Over the Cap to check.

 

I suggested we could clear $30 million cutting non-core vets and restructuring Clay (which I regard as a certainty). Looking at it more closely, it is more like $40 million we could clear with post June 1 cuts plus that restructuring. Mario and Kyle alone are $21 million.

 

Leodis, Graham, Lawson and Carpenter and are another $12.3 million. Clay restructuring is at least five. That is 38.3 million without straining. Easily enough to get Wilkerson (assume $15, worst case), Cordy ($11?), and Ritchie done ($3.5). And you only spent $29.5.

 

Give me a Sanu for $3.75 and we will do what we can try to keep some combination of Leodis, Graham or Kyle with pay cuts or incentive deals for the remaining $5 million - but really couldn't care if we kept none of those. Makes us younger and better. Mo = 26, Sanu = 27.

Dude I like your thinking. I just know there are 2 things you can count on.

1. The way things should be

2. The way things are and will be.

 

I think your play is more 1 than 2 though.

Good luck making it happen

[MarlinTheMagician]

Agree - good clean offseason fun. WIlkerson a long shot, but if chance came up I would pursue it as hard as I could if I was Whaley.

 

Revelation for me is we have a ton of money - unless someone shows me how I am misreading Spotrac and Over the Cap (which I admit is possible!)

 

Go Bills

[MarlinTheMagician]

One other thing:

 

Mario WIlliams, Kyle Williams, Corey Graham, Leodis and Urbik all have what in common? 30+ years. Reinvest the Mario money in the D.

 

These 30+ players are $30 million in cap. Gimme the Wilkerson, a young 26 (not 27 until late October).

[r henderson]

Signing Jones or Sanu would be sweet! Forget about Wilkerson (Will want to much). This year's draft is loaded with DE that fits 4-3 and 3-4 schemes.

[MarlinTheMagician]

Seems to be true on draft availability, but I would rather draft a tackle, safety or LB and sign Mo. We don't know if any of those DEs will work out, and I cannot think of a better use for the money we save by ditching Mario and some waning 30+ talent (all pretty mediocre other than Kyle, who we could restructure).

 

As demonstrated above, is not a question of sign our guys Glenn, Incognito and Gilmore OR get Mo. We should sign our guys first, but that would not nearly consume the $$$$ we could create by ditching some over-paid old guys. Assume our guys take $18 million $11 for Cordy, $3.5 for Incognito and $3.5 more for Gilmore ($11 of Gilmore's is already in our cap number), but you have $40 mm. What would you do with the other $22m? Spend on McKelvin, Graham, Urbik and Kyle? I would not.

 

Mo is roughly the same age as Dareus and Hughes -- could be a new Cold Front for five years.

 

[Webster Guy]

jets will tag wilkerson.

 

not sure if he's the kind of guy who would sit out if he gets tagged, but the Jets aren't letting him go.

[purple haze]

Wilkerson would be a dream. sign him, draft a WR or OL at 19 for the offensive side.

Nah, they need to draft a LB or S at 19. Ragland from Alabama would be my choice. Get Rex everything he needs so there are no excuses in '16.

Edited January 11, 2016 by purple haze

[bobobonators]

Nah, they need to draft a LB or S at 19. Ragland from Alabama would be my choice. Get Rex everything he needs so there are no excuses in '16.

 

I'm fine with that. But I really want to keep adding to this offense.

[BarleyNY]

For those that say "we can't afford Mo, no way no how" -- I just don't see it. I threw this out before for comment, and since have gone to Over the Cap to check.

 

I suggested we could clear $30 million cutting non-core vets and restructuring Clay (which I regard as a certainty). Looking at it more closely, it is more like $40 million we could clear with post June 1 cuts plus that restructuring. Mario and Kyle alone are $21 million.

 

Leodis, Graham, Lawson and Carpenter and are another $12.3 million. Clay restructuring is at least five. That is 38.3 million without straining. Easily enough to get Wilkerson (assume $15, worst case), Cordy ($11?), and Ritchie done ($3.5). And you only spent $29.5.

 

Give me a Sanu for $3.75 and we will do what we can try to keep some combination of Leodis, Graham or Kyle with pay cuts or incentive deals for the remaining $5 million - but really couldn't care if we kept none of those. Makes us younger and better. Mo = 26, Sanu = 27.

And if you strain a little there is easily another $5 million in there among the Goodwin, Duke Williams, Urbik level of players.

 

That doesn't paint an accurate picture of the Bills' situation at all. The current cap situation is this:

$6.2M over an expected cap of $150M (this might be as high as $154M) with a carryover of $5.2M. Harvin's exit is accounted for and they'll gain $7.5M from the Clay restructure. So they're sitting at $6.5M in space before any moves.

Mario will likely be cut adding $12.9M (less $500k for offsetting player's salary) for a total of $18.9M in space - but the team will need a starter to replace him. Other players will be cut too, but all will need replaced. Cutting Kyle would save $5M, but his replacement is going to cost too and interior DLmen aren't cheap. $3-$4M can be gained in 2016 by signing Gillmore to a long term contract though.

 

Then there's retaining or replacing Glenn, Incognito and Harvin. 1st year cap hits can be minimized, but you have to keep an eye on 2017 and beyond. Glenn's yearly average will likely be in the $10M-$11M range, but the 1st year hit could be $6M-$7M. Cogs is worth something like $7M-$8M a year, but the first year hit would be less and he might come at a discount due to his past. But it won't be $3.5M. Sanu or a quality starting WR will be more expensive too. $3.5M doesn't buy much on the open market for WRs. And then there's finding a RDE replacement, which will be costly.

 

The Bills can draft some help, but you can't expect much immediate impact from many rookies. Oh and those rookies need paid too. The real issue at hand is that there can be a lot of moves made, but for every starter or quality back up cut or with an expiring contract there has to be an addition. The more cuts made, the more likely a team is to find themselves coming up short on talent or cap space. Unfortunately I fear that's where the Bills are headed.

 

Edit: Actually $3.5M per year is about right for Sanu, but I do see him as more of a slot WR than an outside. The Bills could use one of each and Sanu could slide to the outside in event of injury so he's actually a pretty good fit. Still, he's not the impact WR I'd like to see across from Watkins to open him up.

Edited January 11, 2016 by BarleyNY

[Canadian Bills Fan]

jets will tag wilkerson.

 

not sure if he's the kind of guy who would sit out if he gets tagged, but the Jets aren't letting him go.

 

 

I was going to post the same thing

 

 

 

CBF

[JP's Voice]

Mohamed is the most common name in the world!

this.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

That doesn't paint an accurate picture of the Bills' situation at all. The current cap situation is this:

$6.2M over an expected cap of $150M (this might be as high as $154M) with a carryover of $5.2M. Harvin's exit is accounted for and they'll gain $7.5M from the Clay restructure. So they're sitting at $6.5M in space before any moves.

Mario will likely be cut adding $12.9M (less $500k for offsetting player's salary) for a total of $18.9M in space - but the team will need a starter to replace him. Other players will be cut too, but all will need replaced. Cutting Kyle would save $5M, but his replacement is going to cost too and interior DLmen aren't cheap. $3-$4M can be gained in 2016 by signing Gillmore to a long term contract though.

 

Then there's retaining or replacing Glenn, Incognito and Harvin. 1st year cap hits can be minimized, but you have to keep an eye on 2017 and beyond. Glenn's yearly average will likely be in the $10M-$11M range, but the 1st year hit could be $6M-$7M. Cogs is worth something like $7M-$8M a year, but the first year hit would be less and he might come at a discount due to his past. But it won't be $3.5M. Sanu or a quality starting WR will be more expensive too. $3.5M doesn't buy much on the open market for WRs. And then there's finding a RDE replacement, which will be costly.

 

The Bills can draft some help, but you can't expect much immediate impact from many rookies. Oh and those rookies need paid too. The real issue at hand is that there can be a lot of moves made, but for every starter or quality back up cut or with an expiring contract there has to be an addition. The more cuts made, the more likely a team is to find themselves coming up short on talent or cap space. Unfortunately I fear that's where the Bills are headed.

 

Yup. This thread is filled with pie in the sky.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Plan for 2016:

 

Whaley said perhaps one D splash signing - Please be Mo WIlkerson, perfect fit.

 

Plus one Mid-range - I like Sanu - big, strong possession peceiver with great RAC ability and bonus of throwing ability , but Marvin Jones if you prefer speed to take top off defense. Both are underrated and should trade as mid-range FA's, and will allow us a number 2 for Sammy without breaking bank or compromising draft. Very happy with Sammy, Sanu/Jones, Woods going into next year.

 

Draft: Rounds 1-3 Best available with focus on Tackle, LBs (that can run)and Safety.

 

We are not far off. To execute the foregoing:

 

Cut Mario (swap out for WIlkerson);

 

Restructure Clay -- deal was meant for it;

 

Cut McKelvin, Urbik, Carpenter, Duke Williams, Corey Graham, Harvin,

 

Cut or restructure (only if very favorable) - Kyle.

 

Work to lock up: Cordy, Incognito and Gilmore (nothing left to prove, do it now).

 

If Wilkerson happens - will he be available? Big guy rehabbing broken bones, can take some time. I know they have all kinds of treatment that can help to mitigate loss of strength now, but all things together, a one legged guy won't help us too much.

The heck with the capologists.

 

Unfortunately the league won't let you send them to heck, or even to someplace warmer

Wish you could.

[MarlinTheMagician]

It is significantly reported in NY that Jets may not tag Wilkerson. Could easily use tag on Harrison. Not expecting Mo to be FA, but could certainly happen.

 

It seems to me the money post above by BarleyNY agrees with the view I expressed on money, even though it says my post does not paint an accurate picture. This is interesting, not trying to argue - trying to get a good handle.

 

Let's say BarleyNY and I agree that we have $19 million after Harvin exit, Clay restructure and Mario cut. Says we get $5 million for Kyle, but I think it is $6 after June 1. For argument's sake - call it $25 million.

 

Then do the math - available on Over the Cap - for cutting Leodis, Urbik, Carpenter, Graham, Duke Williams and Glass Goodwin. Quickly gets you $35+ million (and there are some other cuts we could make as well - for example, Lawson another 30+ guy). We don't need any of those - most over 30, Duke not a smart player and Glass is valueless.

 

Subtract what Barley says we need for Cordy - he says $7 mm, but let's use $9. That leaves $26mm. Barley agrees long-term deal for Gilmore is cap neutral, at worst. Minus Incognito -- no way I would sign him for $7-8 Barley suggests. Old guard with a history. I will assume $5 mm.

 

That leaves $21 mm. What do you spend it on? Sanu will cost about $3.5 by all projections. Mo Wilkerson will not be more than $15 vs. cap. Can do all of that. Unless one values Leodis, Urbik, Graham, Duke and Glass a lot higher than I do, this is what I would do. You have $2.5 left over.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

For those that say "we can't afford Mo, no way no how" -- I just don't see it. I threw this out before for comment, and since have gone to Over the Cap to check.

 

I suggested we could clear $30 million cutting non-core vets and restructuring Clay (which I regard as a certainty). Looking at it more closely, it is more like $40 million we could clear with post June 1 cuts plus that restructuring. Mario and Kyle alone are $21 million.

 

Leodis, Graham, Lawson and Carpenter and are another $12.3 million. Clay restructuring is at least five. That is 38.3 million without straining. Easily enough to get Wilkerson (assume $15, worst case), Cordy ($11?), and Ritchie done ($3.5). And you only spent $29.5.

 

Give me a Sanu for $3.75 and we will do what we can try to keep some combination of Leodis, Graham or Kyle with pay cuts or incentive deals for the remaining $5 million - but really couldn't care if we kept none of those. Makes us younger and better. Mo = 26, Sanu = 27.

And if you strain a little there is easily another $5 million in there among the Goodwin, Duke Williams, Urbik level of players.

 

Magician - Clay might restructure his signing bonus. But another way to look at it is, the 2016 cap hit from his big roster bonus and Mario's dead money, gives us QB money in 2017 and beyond. If Taylor develops, he will expect Payday. I think that's part of the "let's not give Whaley a 1 year leash" thinking - they want him to think about the roster 2-3 years out, such as making sure we don't mortgage the future (QB signing) with cap space we create today.

 

With the post-June1 designation: 1) it can only be applied to 2 players per year 2) if a player is designated a post-June1 cut, his money can NOT be applied to contracts prior to June 1 eg it can NOT be used to sign FA contracts (unless they offer and the agent accepts some funny biz like "June 2 roster bonus" in which case, it can't be pro-rated as a signing bonus can). I could be mistaken, but I don't think that factored into your $40M cap calculation. Bear in mind the rule is the team must be under the cap at all times once the new league year starts, and standard rookie salaries for all draft choices are also counted in.

 

It's easy to look at a list and say "cut this guy, that guy, the other guy" but most have to be replaced, and they can't all be rookies. Unless the Bills are currently stupidly over-paying for someone, it needs to be assumed that we are paying near-market-value for most guys on your chopping block, plus their pesky agents usually want them to get a signing bonus. Eg - I'd like to see Carpenter and Gay replaced by a FG kicker/kickoff man who is closer to a sure bet, especially on extra points. But I don't think it's realistic to count them as "Cap Money I Play With"

[bobobonators]

most of what I've read has the expectation of Wilkerson being tagged. I would expect the Jets to tag him.

Edited January 11, 2016 by bobobonators

[MarlinTheMagician]

Hopeful - good points on the June 1 limit. Didn't know you could only do two, so that requires some modification downward. I don't think it is that material.

 

I agree on the "can't just cut this or that guy" - was not trying to do that lightly. But to me, our D looked old and slow this year. Mario, Lawson, Graham, McKelvin and Leodis -- all are 30+. I don't think we would really miss any of them very much. I am assuming Aaron Williams returns, put him in back with Rambo, Meeks and a pick. On the corner - I don't think losing Leodis is a big downgrade, I like Gilmore, Darby, Robey and Butler just as much without him. Add a developmental corner. Only one I think is a talent loss is Mario, and I think he needs to leave. Duke Williams? No thanks.

 

Offense and special teams - Urbik, Goodwin, Carpenter. You going to miss any of those? Not me. Urbik also 30+, and plus the defensive cuts we are removing six 30+ guys of questionable value add for a 26 year old Wilkerson and 27 year old Sanu.

 

Keeping all these older guys just because they have been with us is how teams get old, and tying up $$ in them is how you lose. IMHO. Thanks for your post!

One related point: This situation is part of why I like the Whaley re-sign. We don't have the mountain of cap space we once had, but we are cap maneuverable. A lot of the team upgrades seem to have been done with some cap flexibility in mind. I think Whaley should get some credit for that, no?

[MarlinTheMagician]

And the thought on Tyrod's future contract - which I believe he will earn subject only to staying healthy (a pretty big if, unfortunately) -- is that it is taken care of by accretion in cap number. Big slots for 3-5 year frame; Dareus, Gilmore, Taylor, Glenn, Shady (probs out after 3 max, then have to pay Darby), Hughes - then Sammy. Agree that will be a bunch of space. Who else is a big number? Dropping off - probably Wood at some point.

 

If Taylor earns it, I am good with a core of Sammy, Tyrod and Glenn on offense, Hughes Dareus, Gilmore, Darby and MO on defense, for several years.

[BarleyNY]

Here is a good link regarding post June 1st cap cuts and cuts designated that way:

 

http://overthecap.com/explaining-the-june-1st-designation/

 

Something many don't realize is that the current contract of a player cut using the post June 1st designation stays on the books until June 1st. All the designation really is is a way of teams protecting themselves from players they intend to cut post June 1st from getting injured (and thus being on the hook for their salary) and from having to pay offseason bonuses, but still getting the post June 1st cap hit delay. In return those players get to hit free agency early instead of in the summer when the cap dollars have dried up.

Edited January 11, 2016 by BarleyNY

[MarlinTheMagician]

Thanks for the link. Very interesting. Have you looked at whether it has a big impact on us? Do we agree on the numbers more or less? Seems we can still make some strategic use of the designation. Remembering from yesterday, I don't think it has a huge impact on the money I was suggesting we could have, but it certainly has some. What do you think??

 

Kyle, Leodis, Graham, Lawson, Urbik, Carpenter -- I would be looking very hard at all of those guys. Seems Kyle should be a candidate for some restructure/cut given age/injuries. I love him, but think he is not a plus in a 3-4.